Medicane Ianos
A spectacular image of Medicane Ianos from the EU/Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite near the southwest coast of Greece on Friday, September 18, 2020. (Image credit: EU/Copernicus, via Pierre Markuse)

Three new named storms, Tropical Storm Wilfred in the eastern Atlantic,  Subtropical Storm Alpha near the coast of Portugal, and Tropical Storm Beta in the Gulf of Mexico, joined the burgeoning number of 2020 storms in the Atlantic on September 18. This marks the first time the National Hurricane Center has named three storms in one day, and is just the second time on record the Atlantic has had three named storm form on the same day, along with August 15, 1893. The Atlantic has now recorded an extraordinary 23 named storms for the year. The 10 storms named so far in September are the most on record for any September.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Medicane Ianos from 15Z (11 a.m. EDT) Friday, September 18. The storm was centered west of the Gulf of Patras, between the Ionian Islands and the Peloponnese Peninsula. (Image credit: HNMS, Hellenic National Meteorological Service)

And if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had responsibility for the Mediterranean Sea, a hybrid “medicane” storm named Ianos that hit Greece overnight might well have qualified as an Atlantic named storm.

Medicane Ianos pummels the Ionian Islands of Greece

Winds shrieking at gale force swept across the southern Ionian Islands of western Greece with the landfall early Friday of Ianos, an unusually strong “medicane” (the name for a cyclone with tropical or subtropical characteristics over the Mediterranean Sea).

One or two medicanes typically form each year, generally at tropical depression or tropical storm strength. Medicanes are not tracked or named by NHC, nor formally catalogued by the World Meteorological Organization. Since 2017, the National Observatory of Athens has been naming medicanes that affect Greece, and it dubbed this week’s system Ianos.

Ianos moved across the southernmost Ionian island group – Kefalonia, adjacent Ithaca, and Zakynthos – on Friday morning with a central pressure in the vicinity of 995 mb. Ianos boasted a distinct eye on satellite as it crossed the Ionian Sea, and analysis from Florida State University showed that Ianos had a symmetric warm core typical of a strong tropical storm.

Meteo.gr tweet

Downed trees and power outages were reported on Kefalonia, and residents were urged to stay indoors, according to Greek Reporter. Wind gusts reached 69 mph on Kefalonia and Zakynthos, according to Etienne Kapikian (Meteo-France). “Clear eye surrounded by intense convection, winds worthy of a strong tropical storm,” Kapikian summarized on Twitter. Meteo.gr on twitter posted some impressive videos and damage images from Ianos.

Torrential rains developed across the higher terrain of western Greece as Ianos pushed strong winds carrying ample moisture upslope. Satellite-based rainfall estimates were as high as 50 mm/hr (2″/hr). As of 1 p.m. EDT Friday, a personal weather station (PWS) in a mountainous region of central Greece, at Fylakti Karditsas, recorded 12.53 inches of rain from Ianos, while a PWS on the island of Lefkada recorded 8.82 inches.

Ianos is predicted to drift southward along or near the southwest coast of Greece on Friday night. Prolonged heavy rains will continue to drench southern Greece, with a risk of additional flooding and mudslides. Over the weekend, Ianos – weakened by its traverse of rugged terrain – may regain some strength en route to a possible landfall on the northeast coast of Libya on Sunday night. Models differ on whether Ianos will move ashore or gradually weaken across the southeast Mediterranean Sea.

As with tropical cyclones across the globe, medicanes may become slightly less frequent—but the most potent ones may become even stronger – as climate change proceeds, according to a 2017 study in Global and Planetary Change led by Raquel Romera that examined a large suite of regional climate model projections. These findings concur with a 2013 study in JGR-Atmospheres by Romu Romero and MIT’s Kerry Emanuel.

Subtropical Storm Alpha makes landfall in Portugal

Figure 2
Figure 2. Radar image of Subtropical Storm Alpha at 10:40 a.m. EDT Friday, September 18, shortly before it was officially classified at 12:30 p.m. (Image credit: IPMA)

Subtropical Storm Alpha formed at 12:30 p.m. EDT Friday, September 18, near the coast of Portugal. Alpha’s initial location, 75 miles north of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal, was the most easterly ever for the formation of an Atlantic named storm. Alpha made landfall in Portugal at 2:30 p.m. EDT Friday with sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 996 mb, marking the first time in recorded history that a named storm has hit Portugal. Alpha was moving inland at 17 mph over Portugal Friday evening local time, and is expected to dissipate by Saturday. Alpha is predicted to bring one to two inches of rain, with localized amounts of up to three inches, along its path. Extensive inland damage, storm surge flooding, and two tornadoes have been reported in Portugal from Alpha’s landfall.

Tropical cyclone history of Portugal and Spain

There are no historical records of any tropical or subtropical cyclones ever hitting Portugal. Spain has been hit by two tropical cyclones, most recently on October 11, 2005, when Tropical Depression Vince hit southern Spain. Vince brought heavy rains to both Spain and Portugal, but no significant damage. Vince developed into a hurricane farther east than any other known storm, at 18.9° W.

NHC declared that Vince was the first tropical cyclone on record to have made landfall on the Iberian Peninsula. Historical documents, however, suggest that a possibly stronger tropical cyclone, the 1842 Spain hurricane, struck southern Spain on October 29, 1842.

Figure 3
Figure 3. MODIS visible image of Tropical Storm Wilfred in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning, September 18. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Tropical Storm Wilfred forms in the eastern Atlantic

Tropical wave 98L in the eastern Atlantic developed a closed circulation and enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Wilfred on Friday morning. Wilfred was the last name on Atlantic’s 2020 list of storms. The hurricane season will now progress through the Greek alphabet, something that has only occurred once, in 2005.

Satellite images on Friday afternoon showed that Wilfred had a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. The system had favorable conditions for development through Saturday, with moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots predicted, along with warm ocean temperatures of 28 Celsius (82 °F) and a moist atmosphere. Models support modest intensification through Saturday. Beginning on Sunday, Wilfred will encounter high wind shear, which is expected to lead to dissipation of the storm by Tuesday.

The 2020 parade of record-early named storms continues

Wilfred’s arrival on September 18 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its twenty-first tropical storm, topping the record held by Vince from October 8, 2005. The arrival of Subtropical Storm Alpha on September 18 marks the earliest date for the Atlantic’s twenty-second named storm, formerly held by Wilma from October 17, 2005. Tropical Storm Beta is the record-earliest twenty-third named storm, beating Alpha from October 22, 2005, by more than a month.

At midway point in 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, storms proliferate and both Texas and parts of Europe are facing new ones. Click To Tweet

With the Atlantic hurricane season just over a week past the climatological half-way point, we’ve already had 23 named storms, eight hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 85 (31% above average for the date). Only one Atlantic hurricane season since 1851 has had more named storms during an entire season – 2005, with 28 named storms. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are eight named storms, four hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 65.

Figure 4
Figure 4. GeoColor satellite image of TD 22 over the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche as of 1 p.m. EDT Friday, September 18. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Storm Beta expected to threaten Texas as a hurricane by Monday

Tropical Storm Beta, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, was named at 5 p.m. EDT Friday. The storm might have been named on Friday morning had the Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying out to investigate it not been hit by lightning and forced to return to base.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Track forecasts out to 10 days for Tropical Storm Beta from the 6Z Friday, September 18, run of the ensemble forecast of the newest version of the GFS, which is not yet operational. The black line is the mean forecast from the 21 member forecasts. The thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from some of the individual members predicted a potential hurricane. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Conditions for development are expected to be favorable through the weekend, with light to moderate wind shear of 5 – 15 knots, warm ocean temperatures of 30 – 31.5 Celsius (86 – 87°F), and a moist atmosphere. Beta is predicted to move at speeds of less than 10 mph over the next five days. Beta will initially move north under the steering influence of a trough of low pressure to its north, then turn to the west by Sunday as the trough weakens and a weak ridge of high pressure builds to Beta’s north. By Monday, when Beta is expected to be near hurricane strength off the coast of Texas, it will interact with a cold front moving off the coast, which will inject some dry air into the western Gulf of Mexico, potentially weakening the system.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Predicted five-day rainfall amounts from the 12Z Friday, September 18, run of the GFS model. The model predicted that Beta would dump more than a foot of rain (yellow-orange colors) along the coast of Texas by Wednesday morning. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Given its very slow motion and the very warm Gulf waters feeding it, Beta is expected to be a prodigious rainmaker, with some model forecasts predicting over a foot of rain along the lower and middle Texas coast. Heavy coastal rains may extend further northeast if Beta holds together and drifts in that direction later next week, as suggested by the 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models.

Figure 7
Figure 7. The eye of Hurricane Teddy as seen from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft on Friday, September 18. (Image credit: NOAA/AOML)

Category 4 Teddy expected to brush Bermuda, then hit Nova Scotia

Powerful Hurricane Teddy maintained category 4 strength overnight, but weakened slightly to a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds by 5 p.m. EDT Friday. Teddy it is expected to brush Bermuda with tropical storm-force winds on Sunday night as the hurricane turns north toward an expected Tuesday landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

At 5 p.m. EDT Friday, Teddy had top sustained winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 951 mb. Teddy was headed northwest directly towards Bermuda at 14 mph.

Teddy is a large hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds extending out up to 230 miles from the center. This large wind field has created waves up to 45 feet high near the center, and Teddy has generated big swells and dangerous surf conditions and riptides along the north coast of South America and the north-facing shores of the Caribbean islands. Swells from Teddy will affect most of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Monday.

Figure 8
Figure 8. Track forecasts out to 10 days for Teddy from the 0Z Friday, September 18, run of the ensemble forecast of the European model. The black line is the mean forecast from the 51 member forecasts. Most of the thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from the individual members predicted that Teddy would most likely hit Nova Scotia, Canada, with a lesser threat to Newfoundland and Maine. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Forecast for Teddy

Teddy has favorable conditions for intensification through Saturday, with moderate wind shear (10-20 knots) and ocean temperatures of 28 – 29 degrees Celsius (82 – 84°F). On Sunday, Teddy will encounter the cool water wake left behind by Hurricane Paulette, which should limit intensification.

A strong ridge is steering Teddy over the central Atlantic. As Teddy approaches the west side of the ridge, a trough of low pressure to the north is expected to turn the hurricane northwards, bringing it to the east of Bermuda Sunday night through Monday morning. Bermuda is no longer in the NHC cone of uncertainty, but the hurricane’s large size gives the island a 60% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, according to the 5 p.m. EDT Friday wind speed probability product from NHC.

Figure 9
Figure 9. Predicted wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) from the 6Z Friday, September 18, run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Teddy would approach landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, near 2 p.m. EDT (18Z) Tuesday as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Beyond Teddy’s encounter with Bermuda, the crucial factor in determining the storm’s track is the evolution of a strong upper low swinging through southeast Canada this weekend. That upper low is expected to leave behind a small remnant “cutoff” low along the U.S. East Coast. That cutoff low is expected to keep Teddy headed to the north, and possibly induce a bend to the north-northwest as the counterclockwise flow around the cutoff low swings Teddy around. This steering pattern makes it likely that Teddy will make landfall in Nova Scotia on Tuesday, a scenario on which the GFS and European models have come into closer agreement since Thursday.

Once Teddy moves north of Bermuda, upper-level winds from the trough of low pressure steering the hurricane will accelerate the storm to a forward speed of 15 – 20 mph, and likely create a high 25 – 45 knots of wind shear. This wind shear is likely to weaken Teddy, as will the cooler waters it will traverse once it moves north of the Gulf Stream, at the latitude of New Jersey.

A crazy quilt of storms peppers the Atlantic

Landfall in Nova Scotia will likely be as a strong tropical storm or low-end category 1 hurricane, with heavy rain and widespread gale-force winds likely to be the main threat. Teddy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm near the time of landfall, which will spread out its impact over a larger area. The 5 p.m. EDT Friday wind speed probability product from NHC was giving eastern Maine a 20 – 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Teddy.

Figure 10
Figure 10. A boat lies stranded by Hurricane Sally’s storm surge in Orange Beach, Alabama, on September 16, 2020. (Image credit: City of Orange Beach Facebook page)

Still 300,000-plus customers without power after Hurricane Sally

The cleanup in Alabama and Florida continues in the wake of Hurricane Sally, which made landfall near the Alabama/Florida border as a category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds on Wednesday. Poweroutage.us showed over 300,000 customers in Florida and Alabama remained without power on Friday afternoon compliments of Sally. Over 40,000 customers remain without power in Louisiana as a result of Hurricane Laura’s impacts on August 27.

Editor’s note: This post was updated at 5:30 p.m. EDT Friday to include the upgrade of TD 22 to Beta and the landfall of Subtropical Storm Alpha in Portugal. The next post will not be until Sunday afternoon.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 18, 2020 (4:49pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Michael Anderson
Michael Anderson
1 month ago

“Vince developed into a hurricane farther east than any other known storm, at 18.9° W.” – from the article. This record has been broken last year with hurricane Pablo, which became a hurricane at 18.8°W.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Banding coming into Houston shows an intensifying Tropical Storm Beta for now. How fast will the entrainment of dry air happen is the question. Have a good day all who are here for sincere reasons.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Dry air dry air dry air. The message sounds like from the experts to some I assure you. Dry air we’ve heard as much about as the risks coming FROM INLAND FLOODING AND SURGE. Just weird to have that risk and dry air so dominant surrounding a storm. This sure a’int a the Don is dead redo.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Mid-level dry air map, shows the northern push of dry air away from Beta. Why the northern half is doing well currently. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16wvmid/g16wvmid.jpg

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

T.S Beta was facing the entire Texas coast filled with low level dry air yesterday. Today the dry air has been pushed back 100 miles north and northwest of Beta due to cyclonic push. South and southwest dry air will likely be entrained soon. Beta has a moisture pool behind, windshear lowering based on the push to the west and north of the dry air backwards, conducive SST’s, and a sustained strong windfield for over a day now. Everything going against T.S Beta seemingly yesterday. Looking at the loop now, dry air is being push away not entrained yet. I hope no one is taking this lightly, even if Beta never becomes Hurricane Beta, we could have a rain event that ends up with Beta being retired after causing a massive flooding billion+$ disaster. That would make it 4 retired storms on the season with a long way to go. A storm like this could catch a lot of people napping, overpreparing won’t kill you. In an age where storms are again and again overperforming, it’s the smart thing to do.comment image

Vera Kroeger
Vera Kroeger
1 month ago

I have followed Dr. Jeff Masters for many years on Weather Underground and felt a little unsettled this summer not having his analysis to go to. So glad I found him again! Your measured, technical analysis always gives me confidence in the “why” of what happens during hurricane season. Thank you from Florida!!

Art
Art
1 month ago

yes…not a good day for boating etc………………..URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
327 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

FLZ043-050-052-148-149-151-248-249-251-202300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.LW.Y.0005.200920T1600Z-200920T2300Z/
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
Inland Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Wildwood, Lake Panasoffkee, Bushnell,
The Villages, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Lakeland,
Winter Haven, Hernando Beach, Bayport, Port Richey, Hudson,
Tampa, Apollo Beach, Westchase, Brooksville, Spring Hill,
Dade City, Zephyrhills, Brandon, Plant City, and Sun City Center
327 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

…LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING…

* WHAT…Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph expected.

* WHERE…Sumter, Pinellas, Polk, Coastal Hernando, Coastal
Pasco, Coastal Hillsborough, Inland Hernando, Inland Pasco and
Inland Hillsborough Counties.

* WHEN…From noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS…Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will
create hazardous conditions for small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Boaters on area lakes should use extra caution since strong winds
and rough waves can overturn small craft.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tampa

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Climate change is real!
photo (smoke on the way up north!)

cough cough.png
Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

South Carolina city sues large oil firms, claiming they concealed knowledge that their product would cause damage to coastal cities around the world

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/20/charleston-force-fossil-fuel-companies-pay-2bn-combat-climate-crisis

Last edited 1 month ago by Susan Anderson
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Susan Anderson

Thanks Susan! always happy to read your posts! keep on with it no matter what ppl say!

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

I would add that when it’s obvious mocking of climate change, while people are dying from climate change daily, it’s not okay. Lot of smart people here and the old home. I hope many if not most of you know exactly what I’m talking about. Go back and look. You will see.

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

yes far out in time but needs to be watched huh…………comment image

carmot
1 month ago

I guess with the constant stream of storm propagation, attention has quickly shifted even further away from the aftermath of Hurricane Sally. I may stop re-posting this notice, any who might be helped by it have hopefully already seen it. I’m not big on counting favoritism/likes/upvotes on social media; but, for instance, seeing zero upvotes here on YCC furnishes the only feedback I previously got.

FEMA Hurricane Sally Info Sheet and Links (v3):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xjZg-eScECx8xtqjvce7BSbE8f6ZJkQI/view?usp=sharing

I’ve created a brief 3-page document with some specific FEMA info and links. It should be accessible to all, from my Google Drive. I modified and updated a lot of the content on this, what I expect is my final update. The third page is a sample document for a damaged vehicle FEMA claim. So you can see **exactly** what this may look like. Use it as a template if you wish. If anybody has specific questions, please feel free to ask me.

My very best thoughts with all affected right now. Stay strong. Namaste.

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  carmot

namaste!

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago

Ianos in the Mediterranean on Sept 20: sheared swirl status.
comment image

Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
1 month ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

That has been a persistent storm! Thanks for the gorgeous image.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

And that tower over Cape Canaveral in Florida looks violent.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

That is one tremendous amount of heat and moisture being pumped out of the gulf streaming northeast to Greenland, Iceland, and beyond. Natures heat pump. Should cool off those bathwater temps a bit.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
1 month ago

I hope nobody takes this the wrong way but I’m praying Beta goes straight over to Texas and just goes on ashore. I don’t think my roof will survive another hurricane!

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Beta….MTCSWA…..

comment image

Stoopid1
Stoopid1
1 month ago

Remnant of Paulette

Screenshot_20200919-202017~2.png
Stoopid1
Stoopid1
1 month ago

Meanwhile, ex-Paulette is producing more and deeper convection. It’s still sheared off to the north and northeast of the center but convection has been persistent and building over time. The LLC is large and robust, it won’t take much for it to organize back to re-initiate advisories

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

12z Saturday GFS shows 3 landfalls of Beta in Texas before finally staying insland. Wow.

Last edited 1 month ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Teddy, do not make a turn to the North….D.C. could improve with a good doucheing by Mother Nature! And Bermuda and Canada both deserve a break.

Relax, just a joke.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
1 month ago

Last edited 1 month ago by White Rabbit
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Updated shear map shows trough lifting out and ten knots of windshear just south of where T.S Beta is now. Will be interesting to see if Beta forms in earnest just south of this shearline, or if Beta stays on the northeast trajectory, remaining sheared the whole way. If T.S Beta were to track south of current forecast it could effect intensity. NHC has been wording intensity guidance at the upperend and then some for Beta, very good to see. In the age of slow moving rapidly intensifying hurricanes right off shore, to err on the upperend sure makes sense. Track just south would put R.I chances not off the table at least. Stays on current thinking for tracking from the NHC, should struggle and not keep enough convection over center to ever build a true CDO due to shear. Yet rainfall expectations released today are 10+ inches across a huge area, and 15+ inches across 100 miles of coastal Texas. Do not end up like many often do, prepare far in advance, do the little annoyances now to not eat the $pricetag and big annoyances or worse if you don’t. Looking at T.S Beta now, many may think this is not much to worry about, please do not think that, be ready.comment image http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.GIF

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

New Orleans radar over last ~26 hours estimates rainfall of 17+ inches offshore….via WeatherTap…

radaar.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago

.

high pressure.png
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago

Ianos impact:
Two dead as rare storm hits central Greece
Sept 19: https://news.trust.org/item/20200919070517-m0iri

Last edited 1 month ago by BarbaraGermany
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Is it going to strengthen?

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

It did a little earlier today after leaving Greece. Is going to make landfall tomorrow at/near the border between Libya and Egypt or in Egypt. According to the models as a rather weak remnant – as far as I can see.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Another summary:
Medicane Ianos turns towards Crete after sweeping across Greece
Two dead, one missing and nearly a thousand rescued as floods damage Thessaly in wake of rare Mediterranean storm
Sept 19: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/19/deadly-mediterranean-hurricane-ianos-hits-central-greece

Last edited 1 month ago by BarbaraGermany
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Dry air west, windshear high still, upper level dry by center, and low levels super dry over Texas that could get entrained in the coming days, lot of reasons intensity forecast went down with T.S Beta per the NHC. Center blowup, has not been sheared like the old convection, that has been pushed almost 300 miles east/northeast of center. GFS suggesting T.S Beta will interact with the higher moisture rates in the southwest Gulf later today. This may only last a day before dry air does take it’s toll. From now to d-max Sunday is the window for T.S Beta to strengthen. Windshear, if it is as high as suggested, should stop any new strong sustained convection over center. In my opinion, do not be surprised if Tropical Storm Beta does sustain convection, that does not get sheared off to the northeast. 80-85mph for peak intensity still possible imo. comment image

James MacKay
James MacKay
1 month ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Beta is trending a bit weaker, but the biggest threat from this system has always been rain. TS Allison was retired in 2001 for the damage she did as as a big rainmaker. This storm poses a similar risk.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Image should update throughout the day….rainfall last 24 hours…..

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
21 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test

comment image?hash=15102

Art
Art
1 month ago

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane seasonal ACE index value is currently at 13.9, above the average to date of 7.3, according to Adkins, and AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting the above-average trend to continue.

Amature Met
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Thank you for the response. Just got back.

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Amature Met

glad to help

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Ready , set , Learn! Waterworld pon a comin!

df.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

heretic

df.jpg
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

(Brazil)photo

brazil.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

oh not again, starting to like the high pressure and lack of smoke up here!

lakes.png
cloudy2
cloudy2
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

what’s going on in Brazil and Peru? I see they are tops in the most polluted cities. http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/air-quality/CityAverageList.php?mode=1

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

Ya on topic MOCKING YCC FROM DAY ONE. I guess YOU MODS ARE UNABLE TO GO BACK AND READ. ARE YOU UNABLE FOR SOME REASON? Terry allowed here cause you want to mock this place or your unable or unwilling to remove him? Come on man YCC can’t be that stupid. Gonna let this troll just mock y’all daily and do nothing? Sure can take down my comments all the time. It is for your good pleasure I come here. I don’t need YCC and I could care less if you get rid of me instead. Would seem very par for the course. What I won’t do is every mince words. Understand me?

Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
1 month ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Understand you all too well. You’re projecting. I’ve appreciated your comments until I saw this one.

vis0
vis0
1 month ago
Amature Met
1 month ago

TS beta!!!! wow Anyone have the ACE for this season handy.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago
Reply to  Amature Met

In the article above the Dr.’s so painstakingly wrote for us!

Art
Art
1 month ago

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected to begin late today. A slow
northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will
slowly approach the Texas coast early next week.

Maximum sustained are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Beta….water vapor…..

comment image?hash=73589

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
24 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test

comment image

Stoopid1
Stoopid1
1 month ago

Alpha has been amazing to watch evolve and form. It seems like more storms are forming in the far northeast of the basin, or being able to strengthen there (Ophelia comes to mind). I remember another storm from 2016 that was quite similar to Alpha that formed in the bay of biscay. Meteo France monitored it but it never was mentioned by the NHC, perhaps Biscay isn’t covered as part of the basin despite being apart of the Atlantic. Regardless, that system was very akin to medicanes like Ianos and could have been classifiable as a subtropical storm had it occurred in the nhc aor. The image attached is the 2016 bay of biscay system.

FranceRSMCLaReunionStephanie.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

What a day….great read, thanks Bob and Dr. Masters!

Soon_Portugal
Soon_Portugal
1 month ago

Missing pic…

20200918_1025_TornadoLau1.gif
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Soon_Portugal

wow

Soon_Portugal
Soon_Portugal
1 month ago

Tornado near Palmela, Portugal, this morning…

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Soon_Portugal

be safe over there

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
1 month ago

Exciting weather on tap for SE GA / NE FL Saturday through Monday.

Screenshot 2020-09-18 at 6.16.17 PM.png
Vintage Cars
Vintage Cars
1 month ago

Beta’s spaghetti model looks much like a plate of spaghetti, except even spaghetti has some higher levels of parallel organization.

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
1 month ago

Here is what I posted on the last blog a couple of hours ago.
The rain from Alpha will be most welcome in Iberia, as many wildfires were burning.

We according to the weather news on the end of the Spanish news tonight, we have now got and we are under the influence of a sub tropical storm “Alpha,” and it couldn’t have happened to better zone as its not going to cause much damage and it will put out and extinguish a lot, in fact all of the Iberian wildfires, so I for one, speaking for many, am happy to welcome Alpha to Iberia.
Any more information about Alpha will be most welcome, not too windy here in Southern Spain but a lot more gusty in the north with some heavy rain showers of up to 2 inches or 50 mm.
Medicane churning on over Greece at the moment as well!

PedleyCA
PedleyCA
1 month ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

How’s it going Red?

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
1 month ago

There seems to be some indication of Storm Beta:-

Sep 18, 2020, 9:00:00 PM GMT
Location:
24.3N 93.1W
Movement:
NNE
Wind:
65 kph
Pressure:
1004 mb

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

thx

stormsissy
stormsissy
1 month ago

We’re right in the bulls-eye in Nova Scotia. I’m hoping the factors that help downgrade Teddy to a tropical storm will win out. Juan and Dorian did a number on the province, so please,please, let the cooler water and wind shear do their work.

M.LeCyril
1 month ago
Reply to  stormsissy

Sentences I didn’t expect to see:
“We’re right in the bullseye in Nova Scotia”

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago

Extensive update on so many storms! Thanks a lot.
Below another radar shot of Alpha’s landfall in Portugal, showing a small eye for some minutes.

comment image
Source: pma.pt

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
1 month ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Current radar shot of Ianos, hours after landfall, shows its structure nicely too.
comment image
Source: emy.gr

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
1 month ago

Thanks for the great update Dr. Masters

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Thanks for updates

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

powering up!

powering up.png