A spectacular image of Medicane Ianos from the EU/Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite near the southwest coast of Greece on Friday, September 18, 2020. (Image credit: EU/Copernicus, via Pierre Markuse)

Three new named storms, Tropical Storm Wilfred in the eastern Atlantic,  Subtropical Storm Alpha near the coast of Portugal, and Tropical Storm Beta in the Gulf of Mexico, joined the burgeoning number of 2020 storms in the Atlantic on September 18. This marks the first time the National Hurricane Center has named three storms in one day, and is just the second time on record the Atlantic has had three named storm form on the same day, along with August 15, 1893. The Atlantic has now recorded an extraordinary 23 named storms for the year. The 10 storms named so far in September are the most on record for any September.

Figure 1. Radar image of Medicane Ianos from 15Z (11 a.m. EDT) Friday, September 18. The storm was centered west of the Gulf of Patras, between the Ionian Islands and the Peloponnese Peninsula. (Image credit: HNMS, Hellenic National Meteorological Service)

And if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had responsibility for the Mediterranean Sea, a hybrid “medicane” storm named Ianos that hit Greece overnight might well have qualified as an Atlantic named storm.

Medicane Ianos pummels the Ionian Islands of Greece

Winds shrieking at gale force swept across the southern Ionian Islands of western Greece with the landfall early Friday of Ianos, an unusually strong “medicane” (the name for a cyclone with tropical or subtropical characteristics over the Mediterranean Sea).

One or two medicanes typically form each year, generally at tropical depression or tropical storm strength. Medicanes are not tracked or named by NHC, nor formally catalogued by the World Meteorological Organization. Since 2017, the National Observatory of Athens has been naming medicanes that affect Greece, and it dubbed this week’s system Ianos.

Ianos moved across the southernmost Ionian island group – Kefalonia, adjacent Ithaca, and Zakynthos – on Friday morning with a central pressure in the vicinity of 995 mb. Ianos boasted a distinct eye on satellite as it crossed the Ionian Sea, and analysis from Florida State University showed that Ianos had a symmetric warm core typical of a strong tropical storm.

Downed trees and power outages were reported on Kefalonia, and residents were urged to stay indoors, according to Greek Reporter. Wind gusts reached 69 mph on Kefalonia and Zakynthos, according to Etienne Kapikian (Meteo-France). “Clear eye surrounded by intense convection, winds worthy of a strong tropical storm,” Kapikian summarized on Twitter. Meteo.gr on twitter posted some impressive videos and damage images from Ianos.

Torrential rains developed across the higher terrain of western Greece as Ianos pushed strong winds carrying ample moisture upslope. Satellite-based rainfall estimates were as high as 50 mm/hr (2″/hr). As of 1 p.m. EDT Friday, a personal weather station (PWS) in a mountainous region of central Greece, at Fylakti Karditsas, recorded 12.53 inches of rain from Ianos, while a PWS on the island of Lefkada recorded 8.82 inches.

Ianos is predicted to drift southward along or near the southwest coast of Greece on Friday night. Prolonged heavy rains will continue to drench southern Greece, with a risk of additional flooding and mudslides. Over the weekend, Ianos – weakened by its traverse of rugged terrain – may regain some strength en route to a possible landfall on the northeast coast of Libya on Sunday night. Models differ on whether Ianos will move ashore or gradually weaken across the southeast Mediterranean Sea.

As with tropical cyclones across the globe, medicanes may become slightly less frequent in a future warmer climate. However, the most potent ones may become even stronger and longer-lasting, with some potentially developing hurricane-force sustained winds and dangerous heavy rains, according to a 2019 study in Geophysical Research Letters led by Juan J. González‐Alemán, using the high-resolution (25km grid) HiFLOR model, “Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Hurricane Activity With Global Warming.” These results agree with a 2017 study in Global and Planetary Change led by Raquel Romera that examined a large suite of regional climate model projections, and a 2013 study in JGR-Atmospheres by Romu Romero and MIT’s Kerry Emanuel.

Subtropical Storm Alpha makes landfall in Portugal

Figure 2. Radar image of Subtropical Storm Alpha at 10:40 a.m. EDT Friday, September 18, shortly before it was officially classified at 12:30 p.m. (Image credit: IPMA)

Subtropical Storm Alpha formed at 12:30 p.m. EDT Friday, September 18, near the coast of Portugal. Alpha’s initial location, 75 miles north of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal, was the most easterly ever for the formation of an Atlantic named storm. Alpha made landfall in Portugal at 2:30 p.m. EDT Friday with sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 996 mb, marking the first time in recorded history that a named storm has hit Portugal. Alpha was moving inland at 17 mph over Portugal Friday evening local time, and is expected to dissipate by Saturday. Alpha is predicted to bring one to two inches of rain, with localized amounts of up to three inches, along its path. Extensive inland damage, storm surge flooding, and two tornadoes have been reported in Portugal from Alpha’s landfall.

Tropical cyclone history of Portugal and Spain

There are no historical records of any tropical or subtropical cyclones ever hitting Portugal. Spain has been hit by two tropical cyclones, most recently on October 11, 2005, when Tropical Depression Vince hit southern Spain. Vince brought heavy rains to both Spain and Portugal, but no significant damage. Vince developed into a hurricane farther east than any other known storm, at 18.9° W.

NHC declared that Vince was the first tropical cyclone on record to have made landfall on the Iberian Peninsula. Historical documents, however, suggest that a possibly stronger tropical cyclone, the 1842 Spain hurricane, struck southern Spain on October 29, 1842.

Figure 3. MODIS visible image of Tropical Storm Wilfred in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning, September 18. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Tropical Storm Wilfred forms in the eastern Atlantic

Tropical wave 98L in the eastern Atlantic developed a closed circulation and enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Wilfred on Friday morning. Wilfred was the last name on Atlantic’s 2020 list of storms. The hurricane season will now progress through the Greek alphabet, something that has only occurred once, in 2005.

Satellite images on Friday afternoon showed that Wilfred had a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. The system had favorable conditions for development through Saturday, with moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots predicted, along with warm ocean temperatures of 28 Celsius (82 °F) and a moist atmosphere. Models support modest intensification through Saturday. Beginning on Sunday, Wilfred will encounter high wind shear, which is expected to lead to dissipation of the storm by Tuesday.

The 2020 parade of record-early named storms continues

Wilfred’s arrival on September 18 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its twenty-first tropical storm, topping the record held by Vince from October 8, 2005. The arrival of Subtropical Storm Alpha on September 18 marks the earliest date for the Atlantic’s twenty-second named storm, formerly held by Wilma from October 17, 2005. Tropical Storm Beta is the record-earliest twenty-third named storm, beating Alpha from October 22, 2005, by more than a month.

With the Atlantic hurricane season just over a week past the climatological half-way point, we’ve already had 23 named storms, eight hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 85 (31% above average for the date). Only one Atlantic hurricane season since 1851 has had more named storms during an entire season – 2005, with 28 named storms. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are eight named storms, four hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 65.

Figure 4. GeoColor satellite image of TD 22 over the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche as of 1 p.m. EDT Friday, September 18. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Storm Beta expected to threaten Texas as a hurricane by Monday

Tropical Storm Beta, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, was named at 5 p.m. EDT Friday. The storm might have been named on Friday morning had the Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying out to investigate it not been hit by lightning and forced to return to base.

Figure 5. Track forecasts out to 10 days for Tropical Storm Beta from the 6Z Friday, September 18, run of the ensemble forecast of the newest version of the GFS, which is not yet operational. The black line is the mean forecast from the 21 member forecasts. The thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from some of the individual members predicted a potential hurricane. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Conditions for development are expected to be favorable through the weekend, with light to moderate wind shear of 5 – 15 knots, warm ocean temperatures of 30 – 31.5 Celsius (86 – 87°F), and a moist atmosphere. Beta is predicted to move at speeds of less than 10 mph over the next five days. Beta will initially move north under the steering influence of a trough of low pressure to its north, then turn to the west by Sunday as the trough weakens and a weak ridge of high pressure builds to Beta’s north. By Monday, when Beta is expected to be near hurricane strength off the coast of Texas, it will interact with a cold front moving off the coast, which will inject some dry air into the western Gulf of Mexico, potentially weakening the system.

Figure 6. Predicted five-day rainfall amounts from the 12Z Friday, September 18, run of the GFS model. The model predicted that Beta would dump more than a foot of rain (yellow-orange colors) along the coast of Texas by Wednesday morning. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Given its very slow motion and the very warm Gulf waters feeding it, Beta is expected to be a prodigious rainmaker, with some model forecasts predicting over a foot of rain along the lower and middle Texas coast. Heavy coastal rains may extend further northeast if Beta holds together and drifts in that direction later next week, as suggested by the 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models.

Figure 7. The eye of Hurricane Teddy as seen from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft on Friday, September 18. (Image credit: NOAA/AOML)

Category 4 Teddy expected to brush Bermuda, then hit Nova Scotia

Powerful Hurricane Teddy maintained category 4 strength overnight, but weakened slightly to a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds by 5 p.m. EDT Friday. Teddy it is expected to brush Bermuda with tropical storm-force winds on Sunday night as the hurricane turns north toward an expected Tuesday landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

At 5 p.m. EDT Friday, Teddy had top sustained winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 951 mb. Teddy was headed northwest directly towards Bermuda at 14 mph.

Teddy is a large hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds extending out up to 230 miles from the center. This large wind field has created waves up to 45 feet high near the center, and Teddy has generated big swells and dangerous surf conditions and riptides along the north coast of South America and the north-facing shores of the Caribbean islands. Swells from Teddy will affect most of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Monday.

Figure 8. Track forecasts out to 10 days for Teddy from the 0Z Friday, September 18, run of the ensemble forecast of the European model. The black line is the mean forecast from the 51 member forecasts. Most of the thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from the individual members predicted that Teddy would most likely hit Nova Scotia, Canada, with a lesser threat to Newfoundland and Maine. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Forecast for Teddy

Teddy has favorable conditions for intensification through Saturday, with moderate wind shear (10-20 knots) and ocean temperatures of 28 – 29 degrees Celsius (82 – 84°F). On Sunday, Teddy will encounter the cool water wake left behind by Hurricane Paulette, which should limit intensification.

A strong ridge is steering Teddy over the central Atlantic. As Teddy approaches the west side of the ridge, a trough of low pressure to the north is expected to turn the hurricane northwards, bringing it to the east of Bermuda Sunday night through Monday morning. Bermuda is no longer in the NHC cone of uncertainty, but the hurricane’s large size gives the island a 60% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, according to the 5 p.m. EDT Friday wind speed probability product from NHC.

Figure 9. Predicted wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) from the 6Z Friday, September 18, run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Teddy would approach landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, near 2 p.m. EDT (18Z) Tuesday as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Beyond Teddy’s encounter with Bermuda, the crucial factor in determining the storm’s track is the evolution of a strong upper low swinging through southeast Canada this weekend. That upper low is expected to leave behind a small remnant “cutoff” low along the U.S. East Coast. That cutoff low is expected to keep Teddy headed to the north, and possibly induce a bend to the north-northwest as the counterclockwise flow around the cutoff low swings Teddy around. This steering pattern makes it likely that Teddy will make landfall in Nova Scotia on Tuesday, a scenario on which the GFS and European models have come into closer agreement since Thursday.

Once Teddy moves north of Bermuda, upper-level winds from the trough of low pressure steering the hurricane will accelerate the storm to a forward speed of 15 – 20 mph, and likely create a high 25 – 45 knots of wind shear. This wind shear is likely to weaken Teddy, as will the cooler waters it will traverse once it moves north of the Gulf Stream, at the latitude of New Jersey.

Also see: A crazy quilt of storms peppers the Atlantic

Landfall in Nova Scotia will likely be as a strong tropical storm or low-end category 1 hurricane, with heavy rain and widespread gale-force winds likely to be the main threat. Teddy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm near the time of landfall, which will spread out its impact over a larger area. The 5 p.m. EDT Friday wind speed probability product from NHC was giving eastern Maine a 20 – 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Teddy.

Figure 10. A boat lies stranded by Hurricane Sally’s storm surge in Orange Beach, Alabama, on September 16, 2020. (Image credit: City of Orange Beach Facebook page)

Still 300,000-plus customers without power after Hurricane Sally

The cleanup in Alabama and Florida continues in the wake of Hurricane Sally, which made landfall near the Alabama/Florida border as a category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds on Wednesday. Poweroutage.us showed over 300,000 customers in Florida and Alabama remained without power on Friday afternoon compliments of Sally. Over 40,000 customers remain without power in Louisiana as a result of Hurricane Laura’s impacts on August 27.

Editor’s note: This post was updated at 5:30 p.m. EDT Friday to include the upgrade of TD 22 to Beta and the landfall of Subtropical Storm Alpha in Portugal. The next post will not be until Sunday afternoon.

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Posted on September 18, 2020 (4:49pm EDT).

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a...

Bob Henson

Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance...

74 replies on “A slew of weather events – including two named storms troubling Europe – pose challenges far and wide”

  1. Updated shear map shows trough lifting out and ten knots of windshear just south of where T.S Beta is now. Will be interesting to see if Beta forms in earnest just south of this shearline, or if Beta stays on the northeast trajectory, remaining sheared the whole way. If T.S Beta were to track south of current forecast it could effect intensity. NHC has been wording intensity guidance at the upperend and then some for Beta, very good to see. In the age of slow moving rapidly intensifying hurricanes right off shore, to err on the upperend sure makes sense. Track just south would put R.I chances not off the table at least. Stays on current thinking for tracking from the NHC, should struggle and not keep enough convection over center to ever build a true CDO due to shear. Yet rainfall expectations released today are 10+ inches across a huge area, and 15+ inches across 100 miles of coastal Texas. Do not end up like many often do, prepare far in advance, do the little annoyances now to not eat the $pricetag and big annoyances or worse if you don’t. Looking at T.S Beta now, many may think this is not much to worry about, please do not think that, be ready. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT22/refresh/AL222020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/175321_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.GIF

      1. It did a little earlier today after leaving Greece. Is going to make landfall tomorrow at/near the border between Libya and Egypt or in Egypt. According to the models as a rather weak remnant – as far as I can see.

  2. Dry air west, windshear high still, upper level dry by center, and low levels super dry over Texas that could get entrained in the coming days, lot of reasons intensity forecast went down with T.S Beta per the NHC. Center blowup, has not been sheared like the old convection, that has been pushed almost 300 miles east/northeast of center. GFS suggesting T.S Beta will interact with the higher moisture rates in the southwest Gulf later today. This may only last a day before dry air does take it’s toll. From now to d-max Sunday is the window for T.S Beta to strengthen. Windshear, if it is as high as suggested, should stop any new strong sustained convection over center. In my opinion, do not be surprised if Tropical Storm Beta does sustain convection, that does not get sheared off to the northeast. 80-85mph for peak intensity still possible imo. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/08/1000×1000.jpg

    1. Beta is trending a bit weaker, but the biggest threat from this system has always been rain. TS Allison was retired in 2001 for the damage she did as as a big rainmaker. This storm poses a similar risk.

  3. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane seasonal ACE index value is currently at 13.9, above the average to date of 7.3, according to Adkins, and AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting the above-average trend to continue.

      1. Ya on topic MOCKING YCC FROM DAY ONE. I guess YOU MODS ARE UNABLE TO GO BACK AND READ. ARE YOU UNABLE FOR SOME REASON? Terry allowed here cause you want to mock this place or your unable or unwilling to remove him? Come on man YCC can’t be that stupid. Gonna let this troll just mock y’all daily and do nothing? Sure can take down my comments all the time. It is for your good pleasure I come here. I don’t need YCC and I could care less if you get rid of me instead. Would seem very par for the course. What I won’t do is every mince words. Understand me?

      2. Understand you all too well. You’re projecting. I’ve appreciated your comments until I saw this one.

  4. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ———————-
    At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
    located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta is
    moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow
    westward motion is expected to begin late today. A slow
    northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday and continue
    through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will
    slowly approach the Texas coast early next week.

    Maximum sustained are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
    hurricane on Sunday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

  5. Alpha has been amazing to watch evolve and form. It seems like more storms are forming in the far northeast of the basin, or being able to strengthen there (Ophelia comes to mind). I remember another storm from 2016 that was quite similar to Alpha that formed in the bay of biscay. Meteo France monitored it but it never was mentioned by the NHC, perhaps Biscay isn’t covered as part of the basin despite being apart of the Atlantic. Regardless, that system was very akin to medicanes like Ianos and could have been classifiable as a subtropical storm had it occurred in the nhc aor. The image attached is the 2016 bay of biscay system.

  6. Beta’s spaghetti model looks much like a plate of spaghetti, except even spaghetti has some higher levels of parallel organization.

  7. Here is what I posted on the last blog a couple of hours ago.
    The rain from Alpha will be most welcome in Iberia, as many wildfires were burning.

    We according to the weather news on the end of the Spanish news tonight, we have now got and we are under the influence of a sub tropical storm “Alpha,” and it couldn’t have happened to better zone as its not going to cause much damage and it will put out and extinguish a lot, in fact all of the Iberian wildfires, so I for one, speaking for many, am happy to welcome Alpha to Iberia.
    Any more information about Alpha will be most welcome, not too windy here in Southern Spain but a lot more gusty in the north with some heavy rain showers of up to 2 inches or 50 mm.
    Medicane churning on over Greece at the moment as well!

  8. There seems to be some indication of Storm Beta:-

    Sep 18, 2020, 9:00:00 PM GMT
    Location:
    24.3N 93.1W
    Movement:
    NNE
    Wind:
    65 kph
    Pressure:
    1004 mb

  9. We’re right in the bulls-eye in Nova Scotia. I’m hoping the factors that help downgrade Teddy to a tropical storm will win out. Juan and Dorian did a number on the province, so please,please, let the cooler water and wind shear do their work.

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