Tropical Depression Fred made landfall in central Cuba on Friday afternoon as the system moved west-northwest at 12 mph. At 5 p.m. EDT Friday, Key West radar showed Fred was bringing heavy thunderstorms to most of Cuba, plus portions of the Bahamas and South Florida, including the Florida Keys. Radar-estimated rainfall from Fred as of 5 p.m. EDT Friday was in the 1- to 3-inch range between Miami and Key Largo, Florida.
Forecast for Fred
Fred is on a west-northwest track that will take it parallel to Cuba, then into the Florida Keys by Saturday afternoon. Cuba’s high terrain will block inflow of low-level moisture from the south into the storm during this period, interfering with development. Also hindering development will be an upper-level trough of low pressure to the northwest of Fred, which is expected to bring 15-20 knots of wind shear. Favoring intensification will be a moist atmosphere and very warm sea surface temperatures, 29-30 degrees Celsius (84-86°F).
Once Fred enters the Florida Straits on Saturday, the storm will start rounding the southwest corner of a steering ridge of high pressure, allowing it to angle more toward the northwest. This will result in a track nearly parallel to the Florida peninsula.
The models disagree on how much wind shear Fred will experience on Saturday and Sunday, so the intensification forecast has considerable uncertainty. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Fred will peak with 60 mph winds before its expected Monday landfall in the Florida Peninsula, but they note that the intensity forecast has a higher uncertainty than usual. A reasonable uncertainty range is for Fred to have 45-70 mph winds at landfall Monday. Regardless of Fred’s final landfall intensity, flooding from heavy rains of 3-6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm in Florida. A storm surge of 1-2 feet is also possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast as Fred passes to the west.
Tropical Depression 7 headed toward the Leeward Islands
Tropical storm watches are up for much of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for the expected arrival on Saturday night and Sunday morning of Tropical Depression Seven (TD 7), which formed at 5 p.m. EDT Friday.
TD 7 has been following a path very similar to Fred’s. Located about 675 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands at 5 p.m. EDT Friday, TD 7 was moving westward at 22 mph. Satellite imagery showed that TD 7 had established a well-defined surface circulation, but had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. The system’s fast forward speed and some dry air along the north side were inhibiting development.
A broad ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic is expected to keep TD 7 moving steadily west to west-northwest over the next five days. Wind shear is expected to be light to moderate, 5-15 knots, the atmosphere will gradually moisten, and sea surface temperatures will warm from 27.5 degrees Celsius (82°F) to 30 degrees Celsius (86°F). These conditions are favorable for development, and TD 7 has good model support to develop into a tropical storm by Saturday.
The biggest question concerning TD 7’s intensity is whether or not it will hit Hispaniola and get shredded by the island’s high mountains, as happened to Tropical Storm Fred. If TD 7 avoids significant interaction with Hispaniola, intensification into a hurricane by early next week is quite possible. Current forecasts carry TD 7 close to Hispaniola, though, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a peak intensity of 50 mph over the next five days. The next name on the Atlantic list is Grace.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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