The CA-5 highway between Pimienta and Villanueva, Honduras, near San Pedro Sula, after flooding on the Rio Ulua from Hurricane Iota on November 18, 2020. Iota’s death toll has risen to 38 people, including 18 in Nicaragua and 14 in Honduras, but the full impact of the terrible hurricane will not be known for many days. (Image credit: Policia Nacional de Honduras)

Dare to hope: With the demise of catastrophic Hurricane Iota on Wednesday, the terrible 2020 Atlantic hurricane season may have finally had its last deadly storm. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but it is likely there will be no more deadly Atlantic storms in 2020. One or more weak named storms, perhaps staying out to sea, are still likely to form before the end of the year, but these are unlikely to cause mass destruction or loss of life.

Unfavorable conditions loom in tropical Atlantic

Sinking air over the tropics leads to drying, high pressure, and reduced odds of tropical storm formation – that’s exactly what is expected over the tropical Atlantic through early December given a state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) unfavorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones.

The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the equator that moves around the globe in 30 to 60 days; odds of tropical cyclone formation increase when the MJO is strong and suitably located, but typically decrease for ocean basins not in the active portion of the MJO. During the formation of Hurricane Eta, the MJO was in a favorable place for enhancing Atlantic tropical cyclones, but it was transitioning to an unfavorable state when Hurricane Iota formed. It is expected to remain unfavorable into early December.

Favoring tropical cyclone formation in the coming weeks will be above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, plus an intensifying La Nina event in the eastern Pacific, which will contribute to below-average levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. However, the current unfavorable state of the MJO, plus the near end of the climatological close of hurricane season, argue that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season at last may have had its final deadly storm. That prediction is bolstered by the fact that over the past few days, multiple runs of the top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis have not predicted formation of any new tropical storms through the end of November.

In a season with a proven track record for spitting out record numbers of named storms (30 so far), 2020 will still be able to produce one or more relatively inconsequential tropical or subtropical storms before the end of the year, perhaps resulting in a final nearly unfathomable tally of 31-33 named storms in this busiest-ever season on record.

The previous record-busy Atlantic hurricane season, 2005 with 28 named storms, had three named storms form after November 20: Tropical Storm Delta on November 22, Hurricane Epsilon on November 29, and Tropical Storm Zeta on December 30. None of those storms caused loss of life while they were named, although Delta killed seven people in the Canary Islands after it had transitioned to an extratropical storm. Only three deadly December tropical cyclones have been recorded in Atlantic history:

Tropical Storm Odette, Dec. 4-7, 2003, 8 killed in the Dominican Republic;
Hurricane Four, Dec. 1, 1925, 60 killed in Florida; and
Unnamed Hurricane, December 1779, 120 killed on ships in the Atlantic.

Figure 1. In this velocity potential (VP) anomaly plot from November 19, 2020, the MJO brings positive 200 mb VP anomalies (yellow colors) and reduced odds of tropical cyclone formation to the tropical Atlantic, with negative 200 mb VP anomalies (blue colors) over the Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific. See further details* below. (Image credit: Michael Ventrice).
Figure 2. Predicted seven-day rainfall ending at 1 a.m. EST Thursday, November 26, from the 1 a.m. EST Thursday, November 19, run of the GFS model. The model predicted that rainfall amounts of more than five inches (orange colors) would affect portions of Central America. (Image credit: NOAA/AOML)

Two tropical disturbances to keep an eye on

An area of low pressure that formed on Wednesday over the southwestern Caribbean was bringing heavy rains to Panama and Costa Rica on Thursday. There is little model support for development of this disturbance, though it will likely bring 4-8 inches of rain to Panama and Costa Rica through Tuesday, as the system moves slowly west to west-southwest across Central America and into the Northeast Pacific. In a 1 p.m. EST Thursday tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 2-day and 5-days odds of development of near 0% to this disturbance.

Also see: How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous

Also worth watching are the waters off the U.S. East Coast between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where models predict that an area of low pressure capable of becoming a subtropical storm may form by Monday as it moves rapidly to the northeast past Bermuda. In a 1 p.m. EST Thursday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-days odds of development of near 0% and 20%, respectively, to this disturbance.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Kappa, the 10th letter in the Greek alphabet.

*Details on Figure 1: The amount of rising or sinking air can be inferred from the 200 mb velocity potential (VP) departure from average (also called the anomaly). Negative 200 mb VP anomalies mean that upper-level winds at the 200 mb level are diverging, causing rising air from below to replace the air diverging away at high altitudes. This rising air helps nurture thunderstorm updrafts, and favors low pressure and increased chances of tropical cyclone formation. Conversely, positive 200 mb VP anomalies imply converging air aloft, where sinking air, high pressure, and dry conditions will be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. In this plot, negative 200 mb VP anomalies (divergence) are cool-colored contours (the scale shows the departure from average in standard deviations); positive 200 mb VP anomalies (convergence) are warm-colored contours.

Editor’s note: Unless Tropical Storm Kappa forms, this “Eye on the Storm” blog and focus on Atlantic hurricanes soon will go into winter hibernation. Jeff Masters plans to post a wrap-up piece on the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 or December 1, after which he and Bob Henson will continue writing often at this site on extreme weather and climate change and on other climate change issues as part of their ongoing “Eye on the Storm” features.


Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on November 19, 2020(3:53pm EST).

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a...

85 replies on “The destructive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season may finally have had its last deadly storm”

  1. Good evening to all, I hope everyone will have a safe & happy thanksgiving tomorrow.

    Meanwhile noticing the NHC adding a second AOI in the northeast Atlantic, I called it out in update 189 at the home page of my infohurricanes website last night (that’s infohurricanes followed by “.com”). But for it to be called out in the NHC outlook tonight is surreal, I just want this hyperactive hurricane season to be over.

    Will have another full update (number 190) tonight on both AOIs

  2. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm NIVAR crossed Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts near Puducherry (near lat. 12.1N 79.9E) during 2330 IST of Nov 25 to 0230 IST of Nov 26 as a very severe cyclonic storm with estimated wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots.

  3. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21 – 23:30 PM IST November 25 2020
    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (RED Message)

    At 18:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm “NIVAR” moved northwestwards with a speed of 16 km/h during past six hours and lay centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.0N 80.1E, about 45 km east northeast of Cuddalore, about 30 km east of Puducherry and 110 km south southwest of Chennai.

    Latest observation indicates that landfall process continues. Majority of convective clouds have entered into land and system is interacting with land surface. The center of the cyclone very likely to cross coast near Puducherry within 1-2 hours with wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 13.0N 79.0E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
    24 HRS: 13.9N 78.2E – Low Pressure Area

    Storm Surge Warning
    ——————————–
    Tidal wave of about 1-1.5 meters height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T4.0 with central dense overcast pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 10.0N & 13.0N and 77.0E & 80.5E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. Estimated central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.

  4. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 17:30 PM IST November 25 2020
    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (RED Message)

    At 12:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm “NIVAR” moved northwestwards with a speed of 13 km/h during past six hours and lays centered over southwest Bay of Bengal near 11.4N 80.7E, about 110 km east southeast of Cuddalore, about 115 km east southeast of Puducherry and 185 km south southeast of Chennai.

    It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of November 25th and early hours of November 26th as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 12.6N 79.4E – 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 13.5N 78.6E – 25 knots (Depression)

    Storm Surge Warning
    ——————————–
    Tidal wave of about 1-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T4.0 with central dense overcast pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 9.5N & 12.5N and 79.0E & 83.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. Estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.

  5. 2020 Hurricane Season Locally had two storms impact Tampa Bay- Sally with 44 mph wind gusts and heavy rain for a period, and Eta with tropical storm conditions and tons of rain. Highest Storm Surge in Tampa Bay since 1991 due to Eta which reintensified to Category 1 but weakened to Tropical Storm just before landfall near Cedar Key Florida. Tons of rain for South Florida. Of Course, Devastating Floods in Central America and Multiple Hurricane Hits in Louisiana. Isaias and Fay went up the East Coast and Hanna for Texas. Pretty much everyone got some storm this year.

  6. When 2020 ends, lets all yell “Jumanji”. It will be interesting to see how the cycles of hurricane activity responds to this hyperactive season going in to 2021.

  7. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16 – 8:30 AM IST November 25 2020
    SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Orange Message)

    At 3:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm “NIVAR” moved west northwestwards with a speed of 11 km/h during past six hours and lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.7N 81.7E, about 240 km east southeast of Cuddalore, about 250 km east southeast of Puducherry and 300 km south southeast of Chennai.

    It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 06 hours. It is very likely to move west northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of November 25th and early hours of November 26th as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 65-70 knots gusting to 80 knots.

    Storm Surge Warning
    ——————————–
    Tidal wave of about 1-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamil Nadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T3.5 with central dense overcast pattern. With convective cloud band wrapping in the western sector. A secondary cloud band further west lies over northern Tamil Nadu coast. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 9.0N & 15.0N and 80.0E & 85.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 60 knots with gusts of 70 knots. Estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 984 hPa.

  8. Hey guys!!! (and girls)….I haven’t checked in in quite a while, as I “fried” my MAC Laptop with some kind of liquid (most probably beer…Ha!).I am now (for the time being) using my friend’s PC laptop.

    Whoah!….I think I may be the winner of the “contest” for storms this season….I think I said 52 named storms…..32 hurricanes….18 major storms…..VERY active as the SST’s were way above normal (the new normal!)…..Lots of pain and misery for all who were impacted by the major storms….Prayers for those in Central America for the severe lashings that they received- they already suffer from extreme poverty and the 2 majors that struck within a few miles are surely causTomack reme misery.

    Here in SoFlo, it has been an incredibly strange season….Record heat, beginning last spring and continuing into the summer…LOTS of flooding and assorted climate change issues as a result. The “rainy season” is supposed to end around Sept. 15, but it has continued well into November, ending around the 15th or so. We should be well into the cold fronts that arrive from the north, but we are gasping for any kind of relief here. LOTS of flooded areas that simply cannot drain the record rainfalls we have received. Talk about climate change, warming and sea level rise!….We are the “poster child” for the future of what is coming to all of us. Obvious, the “dry season” here will be even shorter than previous years….

    I see that Hades and a few others are posting a lot about the active season that is unfolding in the eastern areas of the planet….

    Thanks Jody Tomack(sp.?) for the heads up on the virus!….The local “Wharf” watering hole gained national attention for its’ flagrant violation of norms- huge amounts of peeps without masks and no social distancing. Wow!…They pull in $250,000 on each day on the weekend…..Money versus health….My theory is that the “kids” are so busy trying to get laid….Who would wear masks, fins, and snorkel while doing the nasty?…then they visit grandma and wonder why they died….

    Well, they towed my car because my license was expired- trying to get a new replacement, but I need to get a replacement Social Security card and duplicate birth certificate- a real nightmare. The tow and storage charge will be HUGE!….Even worse, the Director of the lab that I worked for for 29 years has taken out a “stalking charge” because I left some gifts for her at her front door!…I violated the court order because I helped an extremely psychotic person and was within 500 feet of the government center, where she works (where I worked for decades). As a result, Mr. Copper arrested me and I spent 6 nights in the county detention center! Ha!- no good deed will go unpunished!….She said that I was regularly terminated after 29 years of excellent service….and that she has been “cordial” to me!…..Right?!!!….

    Don’t know when I’ll have the time or access to a computer to respond….

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!…but I have nothing to be thankful for…..Later….

  9. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 5:30 AM IST November 25 2020
    SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Orange Message)

    At 0:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm “NIVAR” moved west northwestwards with a speed of 7 km/h during past six hours and lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.4N 82.0E, about 290 km east southeast of Cuddalore, about 300 km east southeast of Puducherry and 350 km south southeast of Chennai.

    It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night November 25th and early hours November 26th as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 65-70 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 11.2N 80.7E – 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 12.3N 79.3E – 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    48 HRS: 13.8N 77.5E – 25 knots (Depression)

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T3.5 with central dense overcast pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 9.0N & 14.0N and 80.0E & 85.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. Estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

  10. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 23:30 PM IST November 24 2020
    SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Orange Message)

    At 18:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm “NIVAR” moved westwards with a speed of 6 km/h during past six hours, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and lay centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.1N 82.1E, about 310 km east southeast of Cuddalore, about 320 km east southeast of Puducherry and 380 km south southeast of Chennai.

    It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for next 6 hours and northwestwards thereafter. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during the night of November 25th as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 70-75 knots gusting to 85 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 10.6N 81.2E – 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 11.5N 80.1E – 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    48 HRS: 13.4N 77.9E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T3.5 associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 8.5N & 14.0N and 80.0E & 86.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. Estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 992 hPa.

    Additional Information
    ==============
    Considering the sea conditions, sea surface temperature is around 29-30C over southwestern Bay of Bengal. The tropical cyclone heat potential is about 80-100 kj/cm2 over southwest bob. Lower level positive relative vorticity (200×10-6s-1) prevails southwest of system center. Upper level positive divergence of 40×10-5s-1 prevails southwest of the system center. The lower level positive convergence is 20 x 20-5s-1 around southwest sector of the system. The vertical wind shear (vws) is low (05-15 kts) over the region. The upper tropospheric ridge at upper and middle tropospheric levels runs along 13.0N over the Bay of Bengal in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system center the system lies in the southern periphery of the above ridge. As a result, the system is moving initially west northwestwards. It is expected to be steered by the above ridge resulting in northwestward movement thereafter. The above environmental conditions are favorable for intensification of the system into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours.

  11. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 – 8:30 AM IST November 24 2020
    CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Orange Message)

    At 3:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm “NIVAR” remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.0N 83.0E, about 410 km east southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai.

    It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west northwestwards for next 12 hours and then northwestwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during evening of November 25th as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    9 HRS: 10.2N 82.4E – 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    21 HRS: 10.9N 81.2E – 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    45 HRS: 12.5N 79.0E – 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    69 HRS: 14.3N 76.9E – 25 knots (Depression)

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity is T2.5. Shear pattern. Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwestern and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, between 8.5N & 12.0N and 79.0E & 84.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -90.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. Estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

    —————————————————————–

    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16 – 8:30 AM IST November 24 2020
    DEPRESSION GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 3:00 AM UTC, The Depression (“GATI”) moved west southwestwards with a speed of about 7 km/h during past 6 hours and lay centered over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia near Latitude 11.6°N and Longitude 46.8°E, about 480 km west northwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia) and 230 km east southeast of Aden (Yemen).

    It is very likely to move nearly west southwestwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.

    As per satellite imagery, intensity is with T1.5. Convective clouds have sheared away to the northwest of the system. Associated scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over northern Somalia and adjoining Gulf of Aden and neighborhood. Minimum cloud top temperature is -61.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1000 hPa.

  12. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 5:30 AM IST November 24 2020
    CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR (BOB04-2020)
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Yellow Message)

    At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression moved west northwestwards with a speed of 5 km/h during past 6 hours, intensified into a cyclonic storm “NIVAR” and lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.0N 83.0E, about 410 km east southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.

    It is very likely to move west northwestwards for next 12 hours and then northwestwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during evening of November 25th as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 10.2N 82.4E – 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 10.9N 81.2E – 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    48 HRS: 12.5N 79.0E – 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    72 HRS: 14.3N 76.9E – 25 knots (Depression)

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity T2.5. Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, between 8.0N & 14.0N and 79.0E & 84.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. Estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

    ————————————————————————————-

    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 5:30 AM IST November 24 2020
    DEPRESSION GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, The Deep Depression (“GATI”) moved west southwestwards with a speed of about 9 km/h during past 6 hours, weakened into a depression and lays centered over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia near 11.6N 47.0E, about 460 km west northwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly west southwestwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.

    As per satellite imagery, intensity is with T1.5. Convective clouds have sheared away to the northwest of the system. Associated scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over northern Somalia and adjoining Gulf of Aden and neighborhood. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1000 hPa.

  13. Good evening to all, my latest birdseye view chart and discussion focusing on the possible Atlantic subtropical storm to develop in the central Atlantic is up at this link. A complex setup this system will be, as it is merging with a cold front and upper trough to the northwest at the moment and will later separate from the cold front as it interacts with a cut-off upper vortex to form at the base of the front’s upper trough.

  14. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 – 23:30 PM IST November 23 2020
    DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2020
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Yellow Message)

    At 18:00 PM UTC, The Deep Depression moved northwestwards with a speed of 4 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 10.0N 83.3E, about 440 km east southeast of Puducherry and 470 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 12 hours.

    It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during evening of November 25th as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 10.4N 82.2E – 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 11.0N 81.1E – 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    48 HRS: 12.5N 79.3E – 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    72 HRS: 14.4N 77.7E – Well Marked Low Pressure Area

    As per satellite imagery, the vortex associated with this system lies over southern Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood within a half degree of 9.7N 83.6E(.) and intensity T2.0/2.0. Shear pattern. Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, between 8.5N & 12.0N and 79.0E & 84.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. Estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 999 hPa.

    ——————————————————————————–

    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14 – 23:30 PM IST November 23 2020
    DEEP DEPRESSION GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, The Deep Depression (“GATI”) moved nearly west northwestwards with a speed of about 19 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia near 11.7N 47.5E, about 400 km nearly west of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 6 hours and into a low pressure area during subsequent 6 hours.

    As per satellite imagery, vortex lies over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia coast and neighborhood centered at 11.8N 47.7E with T1.5. Convective clouds have sheared away to the northwest of the system. Associated scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over northern Somalia and adjoining Gulf of Aden and neighborhood. Minimum cloud top temperature is -69.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. Estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 999 hPa.

  15. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 – 17:30 PM IST November 23 2020
    DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2020
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Yellow Message)

    At 12:00 PM UTC, The Depression moved west northwestwards with a speed of 14 km/h during past 6 hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered over southwestern Bay of Bengal near 9.9N 83.3E, about 450 km east southeast of Puducherry and 480 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a severe cyclonic Storm during subsequent 24 hours.

    It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during the evening on November 25th as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 10.3N 82.3E – 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 10.7N 81.5E – 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    48 HRS: 12.0N 79.8E – 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    72 HRS: 14.0N 78.0E – 25 knots (Depression)

    As per satellite imagery, the vortex associated with this system lies over central parts of southern Bay of Bengal centered 9.7N 83.7E. Intensity T2.0/2.0. Shear pattern. Broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southern Bay of Bengal, between 9.0N & 12.5N and 80.0E & 84.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -80.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. Estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 999 hPa.

    —————————————————————————————————

    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 17:30 PM IST November 23 2020
    DEEP DEPRESSION GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression (“GATI”) moved nearly northwestwards with a speed of about 17 kmp/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia coast near 11.3N 48.5E, about 290 km west of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 12 hours and into a well marked low pressure area during subsequent 06 hours.

    As per satellite imagery, vortex lies over northern Somalia coast adjoining Gulf of Aden centered at 11.7N 48.9E with Dvorak of T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over northern Somalia coast and adjoining Gulf of Aden. Minimum cloud top temperature is -61.0C.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. Estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 999 hPa.

  16. Good morning to all, had a discussion put up last night on our current Atlantic tropical disturbance headed toward Bermuda which is merging with a cold front (discussion at this link). Thinking it has some shot at becoming a named Atlantic storm, hopefully the last of the season, in the open central Atlantic.

    But if it doesn’t develop, and we end the season with Iota, I wonder if this would be the 1st Atlantic season where the last storm was a cat 5 (usually after a cat 5 in the Atlantic, the season closes out with some weaker storm(s)).

  17. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 8:30 AM IST November 23 2020
    DEPRESSION BOB04-2020
    ==============================================
    Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts (Yellow Message)

    At 3:00 AM UTC, The Depression moved northwestwards with a speed of 25 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over southwestern and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal near 9.5N 84.2E, about 550 km east southeast of Puducherry and 590 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.

    It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around the afternoon of November 25th as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    9 HRS: 10.0N 83.4E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
    21 HRS: 10.3N 82.3E – 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    45 HRS: 11.2N 80.8E – 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    69 HRS: 13.0N 78.5E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

    ————————————————————————

    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 8:30 AM IST November 23 2020
    CYCLONIC STORM GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 3:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm “GATI” over north Somalia moved nearly westwards with a speed of about 08 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over northern Somalia near 10.5N 49.7E, 180 km west southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a deep depression during next 3 hours and into a depression during subsequent 6 hours

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

  18. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 2:30 AM IST November 23 2020
    DEPRESSION BOB04-2020
    ==============================================
    Pre-cyclone Watch for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts

    At 21:00 PM UTC, The well marked low pressure area over southwest & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal and lay centered near 8.6N 85.2E, about 700 km south southeast of Puducherry and 740 km south southeast of Chennai.

    It is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around noon/afternoon November 25th. The system while moving northwestwards, would skirt northeastern Sri Lanka coast on November 24th.

  19. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 – 23:30 PM IST November 22 2020
    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm “GATI” moved nearly westwards with a speed of about 18 km/h during past 6 hours and crossed northern Somalia coast near latitude 10.4N around 1500 UTC (2030 IST) as very severe cyclonic storm with an estimated sustained maximum wind speed of 70-75 knots gusting to 85 knots. It lay centered over northern Somalia now near 10.4N 50.5E, 110 km south southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a severe cyclonic storm during next 3 to 6 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 6 hours.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 10.6N 48.4E – 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 10.6N 46.2E – Low Pressure Area

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. Sea condition is phenomenal around the center. Estimated central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa

  20. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 20:30 PM IST November 22 2020
    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 15:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm “GATI” moved nearly westwards with a speed of about 18 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over Somalia coast near 10.4N 51.0E, 80 km south southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia). The landfall process is continuing and it will take about an hour to complete the entire landfall process with a wind speed of 70-75 knots gusting to 85 knots.

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a severe cyclonic storm during next 3 to 6 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 6 hours. 

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. That state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Estimated central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 978 hPa

  21. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook – 17:30 PM IST November 22 2020
    ==============================================
    Pre-cyclone Watch for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts

    The well marked low pressure area over southwest and adjoining southeast bay of bengal persists. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over southwestern Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours.

    It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram around noon/afternoon of November 25th. The system while moving northwestwards, would skirt northeastern Sri Lanka coast on November 24th

    Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

  22. India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 – 17:30 PM IST November 22 2020
    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GATI (ARB04-2020)
    ==============================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over southwest Arabian Sea moved westwards with a speed of about 18 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered near 10.4N 51.5E, about 40 km east of Somalia coast and 90 km south-southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

    It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast around 10.5N to the south of Ras Binnah (Somalia) within next three hours as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 70-75 knots gusting to 85 knots.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================
    12 HRS: 10.6N 49.5E – 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
    24 HRS: 10.6N 47.3E – 25 knots (Depression)
    36 HRS: 10.5N 45.1E – Low Pressure Area

    As per satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. It shows eye pattern with rugged eye pattern and eye temperature is -37.0C. Spiral band has entered into the land indicating interaction of the system with land surface. Maximum convection lies in the southern sector of vortex. Broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over southwest & adjoining west central Arabian sea between 8.0N & 12.0N and 49.5E & 55.5E in association with the system.

    3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. That state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Estimated central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 978 hPa

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