View of smoke from Beachie Creek fire
Smoke from the Beachie Creek Fire in Oregon fills mountain valleys on October 16, 2020. Damages from the fire totaled $1.6 billion by the end of October, making it one of five billion-dollar weather disasters to hit the Earth in October. (Image credit: firenet.gov)

October 2020 was the fourth warmest October since global record keeping began in 1880, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported November 13. The only warmer Octobers occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2018.

NASA also rated the month as the fourth-warmest October on record; The European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated it third warmest, and the Japan Meteorological Agency rated it as the second-warmest. Minor differences in rankings often occur among various research groups, the result of different ways they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

The 10 months of January through October were 1.0 degree Celsius (1.8°F) above the 20th-century average, NCEI reported. That 10-month period ranks as the second-warmest such period on record, only 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05°F) behind the record set in 2016. According to NCEI’s annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 is virtually certain to rank among the five warmest years on record, making each of the seven calendar years 2014 through 2020 one of the seven warmest years on record, dating back to 1880.

The NCEI outlook finds that 2020 has a 65% chance of displacing 2016 as the warmest year on record, and a 35% chance of being the second-warmest year on record. These odds are based on statistical relationships rather than unfolding weather and climate events, and the La Niña event now in progress (see below) will make it less likely that 2020 will be the warmest year on record.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2020, the fourth-warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Europe had its warmest October on record; South America had its second-warmest October. North America had a near-average October. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

Global ocean temperatures during October 2020 were tied for fifth warmest on record, and global land temperatures also the fifth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2020 for the lowest eight kilometers of the atmosphere were the second-warmest or third-warmest in the 42-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville and Remote Sensing Systems, respectively.

Global temperature records are more likely to be set during the peak of the solar cycle, and during strong El Niño events, when the extra heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean is given up to the atmosphere. Remarkably, the record warmth of 2020 has occurred during the minimum of one of the weakest 11-year solar cycles in the past century, and despite the transition from a weak El Niño  to a developing La Niña event, when cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean helps cool global temperatures. The record warmth of 2020 thus underscores the dominant role of human-caused global warming in heating the planet.

Five global billion-dollar weather disasters in October; 40 for year through October

Five billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit Earth in October, bringing this year’s total number of billion-dollar weather disasters through the end of October to 40, according to the October 2020 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon. For comparison, both 2019 and 2018 had 40 billion-dollar weather disasters during those entire years. The years 2020, 2019, and 2018 are now tied for fourth place for most billion-dollar weather disasters in any year since 1990. Details on each of the five October 2020 events follow.

– Flooding, France and Italy
In the wake of powerful Windstorm Alex, an extremely intense rain event known as a Mediterranean episode hit France and Italy on October 2-4. At least 16 people were killed, and damage was estimated at $3.2 billion. As reported by the BBC, Alex brought the wettest day for UK-wide rainfall on record on October 3, when the nation had an average of 31.7 mm (1.24 inches) of rain. The previous record wettest day was August 29, 1986. UK-wide rainfall records extend back to 1891.

– Hurricane Delta, southern U.S.
Hurricane Delta made landfall on October 9 in southwestern Louisiana, as a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, bringing a storm surge of nine feet and rains of up to 17 inches to Louisiana. Despite hitting one of the least populated areas of the U.S. Gulf Coast, Delta did over $4 billion in damage, killed four people, and knocked out power to at least 850,000 customers.

– Beachie Creek Fire, Oregon (U.S.)
Highly dangerous fire weather conditions continued across the western U.S. throughout much of October, leading to multiple major fires in California, Oregon, and Colorado. Damages from the Beachie Creek Fire in Oregon totaled $1.6 billion by October 5, and the fire was blamed for four deaths. In California, four separate fires during 2020 have caused over $1 billion in damage, and 4.1 million acres (1.66 million hectares) have burned in the state in 2020, resulting in 31 fatalities, and destroying at least 10,488 structures. In Colorado, three of the top four largest fires in the state’s modern record have occurred since July 31. Total costs from damages by the fires in California, Colorado, and Oregon during 2020 exceed $13 billion.

– Flooding in India
Heavy rains due to an unusually extended monsoon season, combined with rains from multiple low-pressure systems, severely affected the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtr in October, killing 142 people and causing $4 billion in damage. This toll was in addition to the 1,925 people that died and the $6 billion in damage that occurred during the regular June through September monsoon season. This year’s total monsoon rainfall across India was 9% above average as of September 30, according to the India Meteorological Department. The 2019 monsoon season produced 110% of average rainfall; together, 2019 and 2020 are India’s wettest two-year period since the 1950s.

– Hurricane Zeta, Southeast U.S.
Hurricane Zeta made landfall on October 28 in southeastern Louisiana as a high-end category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. Zeta was the strongest hurricane to make a U.S. landfall so late in the year since an October 31, 1899, hurricane (also a category 2 storm with 110 mph winds) hit Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Zeta is being blamed for six deaths and $3.2 billion in damages, and the storm knocked out power to 2.6 million customers.

40 billion-dollar weather disasters through October, 24 of them in U.S.

Through the end of October, Earth had 40 billion-dollar weather disasters for the year, 24 of them in the United States, surpassing Aon’s previous U.S. record of 20 in 2017. Here is the 2020 list of billion-dollar weather disasters through October, listed by dollars of damage, according to Aon:

1. Flooding, China, Jun.-Sep., $32 billion, 278 killed;
2. Hurricane Laura, U.S., Aug. 27-29, $14 billion, 33 killed;
3. Cyclone Amphan, India and Bangladesh, May 15-22, $13 billion, 118 killed;
4. Severe weather (derecho), Midwest U.S., Aug. 8-12, $10 billion, four killed;
5. Flooding, India, Jun.-Sep., $6.0 billion, 1925 killed;
6. Hurricane Sally, Southeast U.S., Sep. 11-18, $5 billion, eight killed;
7. Hurricane Isaias, Eastern U.S., Aug. 2-4, $5 billion, 15 killed;
8. Flooding, Japan, Jul. 3-10, $5 billion, 82 killed;
9. Hurricane Delta, Plains and Southeast U.S., Oct. 7-11, $4 billion, 4 killed;
10. Flooding, India, Oct. 1-26, $4 billion, 142 killed;
11. Wildfire (Glass Fire), California (U.S.), Sep. 27-Oct. 5, $3.75 billion, zero killed;
12. Wildfire (CZU Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 17-Sep. 22, $3.5 billion, one killed;
13. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 10-14, $3.45 billion, 38 killed;
14. Flooding, France and Italy, Oct. 2-4, $3.2 billion, 16 killed;
15. Hurricane Zeta, Southeast U.S., Oct. 24-30, $3.2 billion, 6 killed;
16. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 6-9, $3.0 billion, zero killed;
17. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Mar. 27-30, $2.9 billion, zero killed;
18. Windstorm Ciara, Western & Central Europe, Feb. 9-10, $2.6 billion, 14 killed;
19. Drought, northern and western China, Jan.-Aug., $2.4 billion, zero killed;
20. Severe weather/Nashville tornado, Central and Eastern U.S., Mar. 2-5, $2.4 billion, 25 killed;
21. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest U.S., May 16-21, $2.1 billion, one killed;
22. Wildfires and Heatwave, Australia, Nov.-Jan., $2+ billion, 34 killed;
23. Severe weather, Rockies, Plains, and Midwest U.S., May 20-24, $1.8 billion, two killed;
24. Wildfire (Beachie Creek Fire), Oregon (U.S.), Aug. 16-Oct. 5, $1.6 billion, four killed;
25. Wildfire (LNU Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 17-Sep. 16, $1.6 billion, five killed;
26. Severe weather, Australia, Jan. 18-20, $1.6 billion, zero killed;
27. Flooding, Pakistan, Jun.-Sep., $1.5 billion, 410 killed;
28. Typhoon Hagupit, China and Taiwan, Aug. 3-4, $1.5 billion, one killed;
29. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Feb. 3-8, $1.5 billion, five killed;
30. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest U.S., May 4-5, $1.5 billion, zero killed;
31. Severe weather, Texas, May 27-28, $1.45 billion, zero killed;
32. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 21-24, $1.45 billion, seven killed;
33. Severe weather, Canada, Jun. 13-14, $1.4 billion, zero killed;
34. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Jan. 10-12, $1.28 billion, 12 killed;
35. Severe weather, Rockies, Midwest, Plains, Southeast U.S., Jul. 10-12, $1.2 billion, zero killed;
36. Flooding, Iran, Feb. 24–Apr. 30, $1.2 billion, 23 killed;
37. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, and Southeast U.S., Apr. 27-30, $1.05 billion, zero killed;
38. Severe weather, Australia, Feb. 2-11, $1.0 billion, zero killed;
39. Wildfire (North Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 18-Oct. 1, $1.0 billion, 15 killed; and
40. Drought, U.S., Jan.-Sep., $1.0 billion, zero killed.

La Niña strengthens, nearing ‘strong’ threshold

Figure 2
Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W). SSTs were approximately 1.2-1.7 degrees Celsius below average over the past month, characteristic of moderate to strong La Niña conditions. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

La Niña conditions strengthened during October, prompting NOAA to continue its La Niña advisory in a November 12 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) have been 1.2-1.7 degrees Celsius below average. The threshold for “strong” La Niña conditions is 1.5 degrees Celsius below average; “moderate” La Niña conditions are 1.0-1.5 degrees below average.

Forecasters at NOAA and at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society expect La Niña conditions to continue through the winter (95% chance during January-February-March), and through the spring (65% chance during March-April-May). They predict that La Niña will peak during the December-January-February period as a “strong” event. If this forecast holds, the 2020-2021 La Niña will be the first “strong” one since 2010-2011. About half of all La Niña events continue into a second year, so we may see La Niña conditions last through the winter of 2021-2022 .

Arctic sea ice: lowest October extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during October 2020 was the lowest in the 42-year satellite record, surpassing the previous record from 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/). Sea ice extent crossed over into record-low territory on October 13, 2020, with record-low extent continuing at time of this posting (November 13). The record-low sea ice extent led to temperatures that averaged nearly 15 degrees Celsius (27°F) above average over portions of the Arctic during October, according to Zack Labe.

Rohde tweet

By the end of October, the Northern Sea route along the northern coast of Russia was still open to ice-free navigation, as it had been since mid-July, but finally froze shut on November 3, after being open a record 112 days (see the Tweet from Robert Rohde). In the Canadian Arctic, the southern branch of the Northwest Passage (famed explorer Roald Amundsen’s route) had re-frozen enough in October to close the passage after it had been open much of August and September.

Antarctic sea ice extent in October 2020 was above average, and reached its annual maximum extent on September 28 – the 11th highest in the 42-year satellite record.

Notable global heat and cold marks for October 2020
– Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 46.0°C (114.8°F) at Alvaro Obregon and Urique, Mexico, October 16;
– Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -42.9°C (-45.2°F) at Summit, Greenland, October 24;
– Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 44.8°C (112.6°F) at Filadelphia, Paraguay, October 1;
– Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -73.0°C (-99.4°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, October 8;
– Highest 2020 average temperature to date (Jan. 1-October 31) worldwide: 32.0°C (89.6°F) at Yelimane, Mali, Matam, Senegal, and Makkah, Saudi Arabia; and
– Highest 2020 average temperature to date (Jan. 1-October 31) in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.9°C (85.8°F) at Surabaya Airport, Indonesia.
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)

Major weather stations’ new all-time heat or cold records in October 2020

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, 72 set, not just tied, a new all-time heat record in October. Seventeen of these stations broke their previous all-time record on multiple days. No stations set all-time cold records:

– Foz do Iguazu (Brazil) max. 40.4°C, October 1;
– Coronel Oviedo (Paraguay) max. 40.4°C, October 1;
– San Estanislao (Paraguay) max. 41.2°C, October 1;
– San Juan Bautista (Paraguay) max. 41.6°C, October 1;
– Paraguari (Paraguay) max. 43.0°C, October 1;
– Asuncion Center (Paraguay) max. 43.1°C, October 1;
– Asuncion Airport (Paraguay) max. 43.9°C, October 1;
– Pilar (Paraguay) max. 43.5°C, October 1;
– San Pedro (Paraguay) max. 41.4°C, October 1;
– Corrientes (Argentina) max. 43.5°C, October 1;
– Ituzaingo (Argentina) max. 41.4°C, October 1;
– San Jose de Chiquitos (Bolivia) max. 42.3°C, October 1; beaten again with 43.3°C on October 8;
– Curitiba (Brazil) max. 35.5°C, October 2;
– Passa Quatro (Brazil) max. 36.2°C, October 2;
– Avare (Brazil) max. 37.8°C, October 2;
– Cachoeira Paulista (Brazil) max. 39.5°C, October 2; beaten again with 39.9°C on October 6;
– Sao Joao do Rei (Brazil) max. 36.4°C, October 2;
– Ivai (Brazil) max. 36.5°C, October 2;
– Sao Paulo Congonhas Airport (Brazil) max. 36.3°C, October 2; beaten again with 36.8°C on October 7;
– Maringa (Brazil) max. 40.2°C, October 2; beaten again with 40.4°C on October 6;
– Concepcion (Paraguay) max. 43.0°C, October 2;
– Iguazu (Argentina) max. 40.1°C, October 2;
– Goias (Brazil) max. 43.4°C, October 3;
– Jatai (Brazil) max. 40.8°C, October 3; beaten again with 41.1°C on October 4;
– Belo Horizonte AP (Brazil) max. 37.8°C, October 3; beaten again with 38.4°C on October 7;
– Franca (Brazil) max. 37.9°C, October 3;
– Rancharia (Brazil) max. 41.0°C, October 3; beaten again with 41.4°C on October 6;
– Votuporanga (Brazil) max. 42.1°C, October 3;
– Alegre (Brazil) max. 41.5 °C, October 3;
– Catalao (Brazil) max. 38.7°C October 3; beaten again with 38.8°C on October 6;
– Pirenopolis (Brazil) max. 39.7°C, October 3; beaten again with 39.8°C on October 4;
– Palmas (Brazil) max. 42.2°C, October 3;
– Catanduva (Brazil) max. 42.1°C, October 3;
– Aragarcas (Brazil) max. 43.6°C, October 4; beaten again with 43.9°C on October 9;
– Goiania (Brazil) max. 40.5°C, October 4; beaten again with 40.7°C on October 9;
– Rondonopolis (Brazil) max. 43.0°C, October 4; beaten again with 43.5°C on October 5;
– Poxoreo (Brazil) max. 44.0°C, October 4; beaten again with 44.5°C on October 5;
– Peixe (Brazil) max. 41.7°C, October 4;
– Brasilia Airport (Brazil) max. 36.6°C, October 4;
– Sao Gabriel do Oeste (Brazil) max. 41.3°C, October 4; beaten again with 42.3°C on October 5;
– Campo Grande (Brazil) max. 41.0°C, October 5;
– Sao Simao (Brazil) max. 41.7°C, October 5; beaten again with 42.0°C on October 6 and with 42.1°C on October 7;
– Mineiros (Brazil) max. 40.2°C, October 5;
– Paranaiba (Brazil) max. 43.6°C, October 5;
– Jales (Brazil) max. 41.9°C, October 5; beaten again with 42.0°C on October 7;
– Presidente Prudente (Brazil) max. 41.8°C, October 6;
– Lins (Brazil) max. 43.5°C, October 7;
– Barretos (Brazil) max. 42.9°C, October 7;
– Ibitinga (Brazil) max. 42.6°C, October 7;
– Bauru (Brazil) max. 41.6°C, October 7;
– Pradopolis (Brazil) max. 40.7°C, October 7;
– Uberlandia (Brazil) max. 38.5 °C, October 7;
– Londrina (Brazil) max. 40.0°C, October 7;
– Itumbiara (Brazil) max. 42.0°C, October 7;
– Ituiutaba (Brazil) max. 41.7°C, October 7;
– Bom Jesus do Piaui (Brazil) max. 41.9°C, October 7;
– Sorocaba (Brazil) max. 39.1°C, October 7;
– Brasilia (Brazil) max. 36.5°C, October 8;
– Colinas (Brazil) max. 40.2°C, October 8;
– Posse (Brazil) max. 39.4°C, October 8;
– Montes Claros (Brazil) max. 40.7°C, October 8;
– Barra (Brazil) max. 40.1°C, October 8;
– Curvelo (Brazil) max. 40.5°C, October 8;
– Salinas (Brazil) max. 42.1°C, October 8;
– Caceres (Brazil) max. 42.2°C, October 8;
– Aracuai (Brazil) max. 44.0°C, October 8;
– Arinos (Brazil) max. 42.5°C, October 8;
– Bahia Negra (Paraguay) max. 44.0°C, October 9;
– Base Adrian Jara (Paraguay) max. 43.8°C, October 9;
– Ascension de Guarayos (Bolivia) max. 41.0°C, October 9;
– San Javier (Bolivia) max. 39.2°C, October 9; beaten again with 40.0°C on October 12; and
– Rurrenabaque (Bolivia) max. 40.1°C, October 11.

Eleven all-time national/territorial heat records set or tied in 2020

As of November 13, 2020, eleven nations or territories had set or tied an all-time national heat record:

Colombia: 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Jerusalen, February 19 (tie);
Ghana: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Navrongo, April 6;
Cuba: 39.2°C (102.6°F) at Palo Seco, April 10; broken again April 11 with 39.3°C (102.7°F) at Veguitas, and again on April 12 with 39.7°C (103.5°F) at Veguitas;
Mayotte, France department: 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Trevani, April 14;
Taiwan: 40.5°C (104.9°F) at Taimali Research Center, July 16;
Lebanon: 45.4°C (113.7°F) at Houche Al Oumara, July 27;
United States: 54.4°C (129.9°F) at Death Valley, California, August 16;
Japan: 41.1°C (106.0°F) at Hamamatsu, August 17;
Dominica: 35.7°C (96.3°F) at Canefield Airport, September 15;
Puerto Rico (U.S. territory): 37.8°C (100.0°F ) at Aguirre, September 17; and
Paraguay: 45.5°C (113.9°F ) at Pozo Hondo, September 26.

No all-time national/territorial cold records have been set thus far in 2020.

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)

112 additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of November 13

In addition to the 11 all-time national heat records, 112 other national monthly heat records have been set so far in 2020, for a total of 123 national monthly heat records:
– January (13): Norway, South Korea, Angola, Congo Brazzaville, Dominica, Mexico, Indonesia, Guinea Bissau, Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, Cuba, British Indian Ocean Territory, Singapore;
– February (12): Spain, Antarctica, Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, The Bahamas, Switzerland, Maldives, Gambia, Russia, Seychelles, Dominican Republic, U.S. Virgin Islands;
– March (7): Paraguay, Cabo Verde, Mozambique, Seychelles, United States, Thailand, Northern Mariana Islands;
– April (14): Paraguay, Niger, St. Barthelemy, Honduras, Guernsey, Haiti, Congo Brazzaville, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, China, Saba, Northern Mariana Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic;
– May (10): Niger, Greece, Saba, Cyprus, Solomon Islands, Turkey, Haiti, Kazakhstan, Chile, Uzbekistan;
– June (6): Maldives, Thailand, U.S. Virgin Islands, Saba, Kenya, Ghana;
– July (7): Mozambique, U.S. Virgin Islands, Laos, Myanmar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Northern Mariana Islands;
– August (6): Solomon Islands, Mexico, Australia, Cocos Islands, Paraguay, U.S. Virgin Islands;
– September (18): Laos, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Mexico, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Botswana, St. Barthelemy, Mayotte, Argentina, Brazil, British Indian Ocean Territory;
– October (11): Algeria, Brazil, Tunisia, Turkey, Cyprus, Jordan, Peru, Myanmar, Northern Marianas Islands, Botswana, Maldives; and
– November (8): Luxembourg, Finland, Nepal, Mexico, Aland Islands, Sweden, Maldives, Northern Marianas.

Two monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied in 2020

– April: St. Eustatius; and
– October: Aruba.

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2020

– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in January: 29.1°C (84.4°F) at Bonriki, Kiribati, January 17;
– Highest maximum temperature ever recorded in North America in January: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Vicente Guerrero, Mexico, January 21;
– Highest temperature ever recorded in continental Antarctica and highest February temperature ever recorded in Antarctica plus the surrounding islands: 18.4°C (65.1°F) at Base Esperanza, February 6;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in Antarctica: 7.6°C (45.7°F) at Base Marambio, February 9;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in the Northern Hemisphere: 32.0°C (89.6°F) at Yelimane, Mali, February 23;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in April in the Southern Hemisphere: 31.1°C (88.0°F) at Argyle, Australia, April 2;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in Europe: 30.1°C (86.2°F) at Emponas, Greece, May 17;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in North America: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Death Valley, California (U.S.), May 28;
– Highest temperature ever recorded in the polar regions: 38.0°C (100.4°F) at Verkhoyansk, Russia, June 20;
– Highest reliable temperature ever recorded on Earth: 54.4°C (129.9°F) at Death Valley, California, August 16;
– Highest reliable minimum temperature ever recorded in August in North America: 40.0°C (104.0°F) at Death Valley, California (U.S.), August 17;
– Highest temperature ever recorded in Australia and Oceana in August: 40.7°C (105.3°F) at Yampi Sound, Australia, August 22; beaten again with 41.2°C (106.2°F) at West Roebuck, Australia, on August 23; and
– Highest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in November: 44.8°C (112.6°F) at San Francisco and Tubares, Mexico, November 5.

Baked by midsummer sun, Arctic sea ice could face worst losses on record

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Note that Mr. Herrera is now on Twitter, and you can keep up with his remarkable statistics on his Extreme Temperatures Around The World Twitter handle.)


Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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Posted on November 13, 2020(1:44pm EST).

Topics: Climate Science, Weather Extremes
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Guest
Guest
14 days ago

The NCEI outlook finds that 2020 has a 65% chance of displacing 2016 as the warmest year on record

No it doesn’t. You’re looking at last month’s report. Today’s says 29%

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43 – 3:00 AM JST November 14 2020
TYPHOON VAMCO (T2022)
========================================
South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 15.6N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.7N 110.5E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
24 HRS: 16.5N 108.4E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.9N 104.4E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 – 22:00 PM RET November 13 2020
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALICIA (01-20202021)
===============================================
East of Diego Garcia

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alicia (997 hPa) located at 6.4S 80.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant and up to 130 nm in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 nm radius from the center, extending up to 120 nm in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 nm in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===========================
12 HRS: 7.8S 78.6E – 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 10.0S 76.3E – 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 73.6E – 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.0S 72.9E – 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
===========================
Over the last six hours, convective active increased near the center with an improving curvature. 1530z ASCAT swath confirm this impression with winds reaching gale force in the eastern semi-circle. However the inner core is still quite broad and elongated which may slow the deepening rate at short range. This system was therefore named Alicia by the Mauritius Meteorological Service at 1730z.

Still no change in terms of forecast philosophy. Alicia continues to be guided by the steering flow generated by the subtropical ridge. The system should soon accelerate its southwestward movement. Under the impulse of the dynamics further south, the ridge is gradually shifting eastward and will leave a northward directed steering flow from Sunday onwards. The numerical models are in good agreement on this global trajectory. From Monday onwards, the uncertainty becomes important in relation to the weak steering flow and the existence of two possible scenarios: evacuation in the extra-tropical domain or filling up in the tropical domain north of the reconstructed low-level anticyclonic belt. The first one seems more likely for now.

On this track, the environmental conditions are very favorable over the next 2 days. With the help of strengthening equatorial westerly winds, a very good divergence, little shear and a very strong oceanic potential, Alicia may reach tropical cyclone level on Sunday. At the beginning of next week, conditions are expected to deteriorate with insufficient oceanic potential south of 17.0S, and increasing shear associated gradually with dry mid-tropospheric air intrusions.

Last edited 14 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
elioe
elioe
15 days ago

Didn’t Delta or Zeta do any damage in Yucatan worth mentioning?

Jessica BSW
Jessica BSW
15 days ago

Thanks!!

Amature Met
Amature Met
15 days ago

Thank you Dr. Masters. Summery, October was very hot! Any chance the new TD makes it out North of the Caribbean now that models have a closed COC to lock onto?

Will burke
Will burke
11 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

I hope !