Belize image
Ominous clouds associated with Eta loom off the coast of Placencia, Belize, on Wednesday morning, November 4, 2020. (Image credit: Courtesy Robin McCutcheon)

Even as it weakened to tropical depression status, former Category 4 Hurricane Eta continued bringing misery to Central America with torrential rain, flooding, and landslides. The Associated Press had tallied at least 13 deaths by midday Thursday, November 5: seven in Honduras, four in Guatemala, and two in Nicaragua. Washed-out roads left more than 40 communities in Honduras inaccessible.

Among the villages hit by landslides in northern Guatemala was Los Trigales, where at least four people died and two others remained missing.

The center of the diffuse circulation of Tropical Depression Eta was located in northwest Honduras at 2 p.m. EDT Thursday, November 5, according to the National Hurricane Center. Top sustained winds were down to 30 mph, and the center of Eta was mostly devoid of convection (showers and thunderstorms). Eta’s heaviest inland rains had pushed north into eastern Guatemala and Belize.

A large cluster of intense convection was located offshore in the Northwest Caribbean, where Eta is expected to move on Friday en route to a potential path across Cuba this weekend and across or near Florida early next week.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Eta at 1705Z (12:05 p.m. EDT) Thursday, November 5. (Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com)

Forecast for Eta

The core of Eta’s circulation will work its way offshore on Thursday night, drifting north and then northeastward. An upper-level trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is then expected to pull Eta northeastward at a faster pace on Friday and Saturday. Models generally agree that Eta will reconsolidate and re-intensify around a more well-defined center as it heads toward Cuba. It’s possible that Eta will be classified as a remnant low before it moves offshore; if this were to happen, NHC policy is generally to reuse the previous name as long as the re-intensified storm can be traced back to its original incarnation.

There is plenty of warm water on hand for Eta, with sea surface temperatures of 29°C (84°F) running 0.5-1.0°C above average for this time of year and oceanic heat content very supportive of strengthening. On the other hand, wind shear will be increasing, and the atmosphere around Eta – currently very moist – will become steadily drier.

Overall, conditions do not favor anything like a repeat of Eta’s breakneck intensification to Category 4 strength before it reached Nicaragua. Assuming that Eta follows the NHC-predicted track toward western Cuba, it is much more likely to be a tropical storm rather than a hurricane when it arrives there on Sunday.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Projected locations for Tropical Depression Eta at 12Z (7 a.m. EST) Monday, November 9, from the 12Z Thursday run of the GFS ensemble forecast system (GEFS). The higher two-digit numbers denote pressures in the 9XX-mb range (e.g., 92 = 992 mb), whereas lower two-digit numbers denote pressures in the 10XX-mb range (e.g., 06 = 1006 mb). Most of the GFS ensemble members predict that Eta will be a tropical storm somewhere between Cuba and Florida on November 9. (Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com)

The forecast gets more complicated beyond this point. It appears the southern end of the upper-level trough steering Eta will break off from the jet stream and dive into the eastern Gulf. As a result, Eta (again assuming it has made it this far) will likely get pulled toward the small trough remnant, perhaps rotating around it or becoming absorbed by it. The GFS and European models suggest that such a turn would be most likely to unfold somewhere in the vicinity of South Florida on Monday and/or Tuesday. It is too soon to be confident about Eta’s trajectory or strength at this point until there is a better sense of its structure after it moves offshore on Friday. Long-range models indicate that both features will be slow to move from the weekend until later next week.

Eta’s rains plague Central America; Will Cuba and Florida be next?

The bottom line: a prolonged period of disturbed weather appears likely for South Florida, with persistent moist easterly flow and periods of heavy rain. In addition, the upcoming new moon will favor king tides in the Miami area by the end of next week (November 14-17). It’s also possible that some of Eta’s moisture will be pulled further north into the southeastern U.S. as the week unfolds.

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Posted on November 5, 2020(2:59 EST).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Art
Art
18 days ago

good night everyone!!

Art
Art
19 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
19 days ago

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 86.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (10
km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are
expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands
Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again this
afternoon or tonight, with further strengthening likely through
early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches
(380 mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across
the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
19 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71 – 3:00 AM JST November 7 2020
TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020)
=============================================
Taiwan Strait

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 22.3N 119.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 22.5N 118.7E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Taiwan Strait
24 HRS: 20.6N 116.3E – Tropical Depression in South China Sea

greiner3
greiner3
19 days ago

Did the Disqus comments on WU get moved/shut down?

All I get is a blank page.

This has happened prior and someone gave me a new URL.

Anyone have info on this?

Thanks

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
19 days ago
Reply to  greiner3
Art
Art
19 days ago

and yet another one trying to form..right now at NHC guess 20%……comment image

CAPT DEEZ
CAPT DEEZ
19 days ago

Does anyone have the back door link to the wunderground blog

Art
Art
19 days ago

I guess we around Tampa Bay area had better keep a good eye on ETA..im thinking 60-65 MPH winds with possible higher gusts-possible water spouts and whatever else comes with a strong TS..prepare and be alert to any changes….60-65 mph winds can be trouble

Art
Art
19 days ago

comment image?crop=16:9&width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60

Art
Art
19 days ago
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
402 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-062100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
402 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will result in rough surf along with
a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches
today. Use caution at the beach and always swim near a lifeguard
if you enter the dangerous and rough surf. Do not swim alone.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
East to Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and seas of 6 to 8 feet
will keep conditions hazardous for small craft over the local
Atlantic waters overnight. A Small Craft Advisory continues across
all of the local waters except near the Volusia County coast,
where small craft operators should exercise caution.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River near Astor is expected to remain in Minor
Flood stage through the upcoming weekend. Refer to daily Flood
Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and
forecasts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. and
strengthening tropical cyclone Eta approaching Cuba and south Florida
from the south will produce increasing onshore winds this weekend
and into next week. Expect increasingly hazardous seas and surf,
and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. There is also
the potential for significant beach erosion and inundation from
coastal flooding to develop.

As even windier conditions develop, very deep moisture, along with
showers and gusty squalls will overspreading the area. There will be
an increasing risk for torrential and locally flooding rainfall,
as well as minor wind damage from wind gusts in squalls.

Keep apprised of the latest forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Eta from
the National Hurricane Center, as well as forecasts and statements
from the National Weather Service in Melbourne regarding the threat
for hazardous weather developing through this weekend and early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

$$

Pendergrast
Art
Art
19 days ago
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
331 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020

FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173-070000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0007.201107T0000Z-201111T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Metro Palm Beach-Metro Broward-Metro Miami-Dade-
Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-
331 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
  following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
  Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm
  Beach.

* From this evening through Tuesday evening

* The frontal boundary over South Florida along with Tropical
  Cyclone Eta forecast by NHC to move through the Florida Straits
  and Florida Keys this weekend will help to bring the very deep
  tropical moisture into South Florida from the Caribbean Sea. The
  grounds are also still somewhat saturated from the late October
  rains over the eastern areas of South Florida. Therefore, it
  will not take much to cause flooding over the region especially
  over the east coast metro areas. At this time, it looks like 5
  to 10 inches are possible over the east coast metro areas
  tapering down to 2 to 5 inches for the west coast metro areas
  with locally higher amounts where showers and thunderstorms
  train through Tuesday. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued
  for the east coast metro areas from tonight through Tuesday
  evening.

* Very heavy rainfall may produce flooding and/or flash flooding
  in urban locations as well as small creeks, streams, and canals.
  This is especially true for areas that recently received heavy
  rainfall.
Art
Art
19 days ago

well unless things change,Florida just May..be in for it with ETA

Art
Art
19 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
19 days ago

comment image

Marsha Trent
Marsha Trent
19 days ago

Wow! My village of Placencia made it to the big time being the location of your lead photo.

NCHurricane2009
19 days ago

Did my latest update on Eta and the Atlantic tropics at this link. This will be a problem for the Cayman Islands, Cuba, western Bahamas, and southern half of the Florida peninsula including the Florida Keys over the next few days. I hope everyone in the path of this storm is getting ready. The only thing I’m optimistic about is that it may struggle to regain hurricane strength as I explain in the update, but strong tropical storm conditions is nothing to ignore.

Some of the long range model runs eerily suggest the season is still not over, perhaps another repeat of development in the Caribbean in the wake of Eta.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
19 days ago

Big picture view this morning….pretty hard to miss the mid- to upper-level trough….
comment image

Art
Art
19 days ago

well everything is still Guesswork for our possible Storm..still 2-3 days away yet huh…

Art
Art
19 days ago

clipped from NHC 3am disc………
The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas
and Southern Florida.

Pepe
Pepe
19 days ago

I miss the old blog. This one is so slow. Does anyone know a blog like the last one?

Eta is gonna go right over mi casa

Skyepony (mod)
19 days ago
Reply to  Pepe

Let us know how you do in Eta. Most are still here.. https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/

SoFLJenn21
SoFLJenn21
19 days ago
Reply to  Pepe

Agreed! If you find one let me know! I love the bloggers and all of the old crew! I miss Cat 6 immensely!

Art
Art
19 days ago

comment image

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
19 days ago

widespread warmth

gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.png
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
19 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67 – 15:00 PM JST November 6 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020)
=============================================
Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Atsani (996 hPa) located at 21.3N 120.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 21.9N 119.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
24 HRS: 22.2N 118.5E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.9N 112.9E – Tropical Depression in South China Sea

Last edited 19 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Patrap
Patrap
19 days ago

ETA..

Is correct.

MV5BMjE0MjEyMjIzNl5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwMTgxNzU2Mg@@._V1_UY317_CR18,0,214,317_AL_.jpg
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
19 days ago

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
19 days ago

Thanks for the Thursday update, Bob!

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
19 days ago

I am having issues with the NASA GOES link: https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/

Is anyone else having the same problem? Is there a new link?

Skyepony (mod)
19 days ago
Reply to  Diablo Flaco

Was having the same problem yesterday. Good to see it working this morning.

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
20 days ago

Thank You for the Update and nice seeing in on the YCC action Mr. Henson. Conditions are going to be relatively hostile for Eta downstream on the other side of Cuba not to mention the actual land interaction with Cuba on the way towards Florida and/or the Eastern Gulf. I would not hang my hat on any models, in terms of a more concrete picture, until after the Cuban interaction to see what shape the circulation is in as well as tilt/dry air factors .

Last edited 19 days ago by WxManWannaBe
Art
Art
20 days ago

well good night everyone

Art
Art
20 days ago

well Flooding might be an issue when and IF eta brings tropical rains down in south Florida huh..and its full moon time so tides will be higher too i assume

Art
Art
20 days ago

Thu Nov 5 2020

…HAZARDOUS MARINE/BEACH CONDITIONS…
…ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EAST COAST…

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all
Atlantic beaches.

Wind: Breezy east-northeasterly winds continue, creating hazardous
boating conditions over the local waters. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph
will be possible, especially across the east coast of South Florida.

Waves: Seas will range from 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters,
with lower wave heights forecast across the remaining local waters.

Flooding: Isolated urban/street flooding will be possible across the
east coast metros.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms return to the forecast today…when
thunder roars, go indoors.

Waterspouts: Can`t rule out an isolated waterspout over the Atlantic
waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Breezy conditions will continue through the week. Hazardous marine
conditions could briefly subside on Friday before deteriorating once
again this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Eta over Honduras is forecast by the National
Hurricane Center to move back into the NW Caribbean Sea late this
week. The system is then forecast to move northward into the Florida
Straits or the SE Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Marine conditions will
gradually deteriorate once again going into this weekend, and heavy
rainfall concerns continue to grow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information…visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at http://www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Art
Art
20 days ago

it seems south Florida is getting some showers as i write this…http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?470162c6266af939cf78af8a72a7ceb3

Art
Art
20 days ago

yes i see that too…models still arent sure it seems..track wise.comment image

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
20 days ago

OK, I am perplexed. NHC shifted compared to their previous runs. Now slower and sooner / sharper left hand turn (now over Cuba). While the latest 18Z GFS has shifted north and turn into SE Florida.

Last edited 20 days ago by Diablo Flaco
Dirk
Dirk
20 days ago

Thank you Dr. Jeff.

Shira
Shira
20 days ago
Reply to  Dirk

Should be thank you Bob Hanson

Dirk
Dirk
20 days ago
Reply to  Shira

Sorry i didn´t look.:(
Thank you Bob Henson apologies.

Amature Met
Amature Met
19 days ago
Reply to  Dirk

Thank you Dr. Master for 16 wonderful years and the new home. Thank you Mr. Hanson for the clear update!

Has whats left of any COC moved over H2O yet?

Dirk
Dirk
19 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Hey when your about to reach 90 i guess your allowed to make a mistake.

Art
Art
20 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
20 days ago

well for myself im going to prepare as i would for a Tropical Storm coming to my area..this way im ready and things that could blow around outside taken inside..we’ve had several TS’s here and besides one time roofing material came off, we made out ok..hopefully this time also huh

John G
John G
20 days ago
Reply to  Art

Where in FL are you? I’m up here in the bustling metropolis of Fort White having moved here about eight years ago from Sarasota. Since moving here we’ve been affected by more tropical systems than the decades we lived down there. When I say decades Donna was on my birthday in 1960.

Art
Art
20 days ago
Reply to  John G

hi John i’m in Pinellas county across the bay from Tampa and im closer to the gulf

Art
Art
20 days ago
Reply to  John G

I was living in NY and somehow i remember Donna from back then.i just turned 71 today lol man ive seen alot of them..we moved down here around 84-85 and love it here

jiiski
jiiski
19 days ago
Reply to  Art

Happy birthday, Art!

Art
Art
19 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

thank you!!