A tropical wave, designated 96L by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday night, is moving west at 10-15 mph through the eastern Caribbean. The wave is producing a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms that have grown organized over the past day, and 96L is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Eta by Monday.

Conditions for development for 96L were favorable on Friday. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.0°F) above average; wind shear was light, 5-10 knots; and 96L was embedded in a moderately moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 65%.

By Monday, when 96L will be in the western Caribbean southwest of Jamaica, conditions for development will still be favorable, with SSTs of 29.5 degrees Celsius (85°F), wind shear a moderate 10-15 knots, a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 75%.

Forecast for 96L

In 0Z and 6Z Friday runs, the top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all saw 96L developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. The models predicted 96L would be trapped by a strong ridge of high pressure to its north, which would force the storm on a generally westward motion, resulting in a landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras sometime Monday through Wednesday. Fewer than 10% of the 82 ensemble members of the Friday morning runs of the European and GFS ensemble forecasts predicted that 96L might turn north and threaten Cuba.

The uncertainty on the timing of a potential landfall for 96L results from the steering currents that will weaken on Monday, when 96L will enter the western Caribbean, resulting in its slower forward speed of 5-10 mph. In an 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 80%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is the seventh letter in the Greek alphabet, Eta. If Eta does form, it would tie 2020 with 2005 for the most named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season, with 28. One of the storms in 2005 was not named because it was discovered in post-season analysis, so this would be the first use of Eta in any Atlantic season. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into 96L will likely occur no later than Sunday afternoon.

The recovery from Hurricane Zeta continues

At least six people died in the southeastern U.S. in the aftermath of Hurricane Zeta, which made landfall in southeastern Louisiana at 4 p.m. CDT October 28, as a category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. According to the latest weather.com write-up on Zeta, a New Orleans man was electrocuted by low-hanging power lines. In Mississippi, a man taking video of the storm in Biloxi drowned at a marina, the Sun Herald reported. In Georgia, three people died after trees fell on their homes. One person also died in Alabama when a tree fell on a home, the Associated Press reported.

According to poweroutage.us, 1.4 million customers were without power on Friday morning along the path of the hurricane, down from the peak of 2.6 million customers on Thursday.

Also see: Hurricane Zeta’s high winds cause largest U.S. power outage of 2020

NHC announced Thursday that the highest coastal inundation observed from Zeta’s storm surge occurred in Ocean Springs, Mississippi, with 9-10 feet of inundation. This surge was very much in line with the NHC forecast, which called for peak inundation levels of 8-11 feet.

We plan a second post later today on category 5 Super Typhoon Goni, as it heads toward the Philippines.

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Posted on October 30, 2020 (12:29pm EDT).