A Tropical Storm Warning is up for Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula for the expected arrival on Saturday of Tropical Depression 25, which formed at 11 a.m. EDT Friday in the western Caribbean. Poised to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gamma by Saturday morning, TD 25 is a heavy rain threat to Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and western Cuba. It poses no threat to the U.S. over the next five days.
Conditions for development of TD 25 are favorable through Saturday, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 30 – 30.5 degrees Celsius (86 – 87°F), light wind shear less than 10 knots, and a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 80%. Satellite images showed that TD 25’s heavy thunderstorm activity was steadily increasing in intensity, areal coverage, and organization as the system moved northwest at about 9 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is to investigate TD 25 on Friday afternoon.
Forecast for TD 25
The ridge of high pressure steering TD 25 should keep it moving to the northwest or north-northwest through Sunday, a track on which all of the major computer models agree. This motion should bring TD 25 to the coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, though it is possible the system could slide just north of Cancun and pass through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. TD 25’s forward motion is expected to slow to less than 5 mph Saturday through Monday, resulting in very heavy rains.
The track of TD 25 next week is unclear, as it will be embedded in a region of weak steering currents. The current model consensus is that TD 25 will be a relatively weak storm steered slowly westwards by the low-level winds. If TD 25 manages to over-achieve and intensify into a hurricane over the weekend, a more northerly path and a potential threat to the U.S. could materialize.
Further complications on predicting TD 25’s track may arise next week as another tropical wave, now moving through the eastern Caribbean, arrives in the western Caribbean. In an 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave this second tropical wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Conditions for development of TD 25 will become more hostile on Sunday, when the system will encounter a large trough of low pressure extending from Mexico into the southeastern U.S., associated with a cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico early this week. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots to TD 25 Saturday night through Monday. In addition, plenty of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico will interfere with development, as will land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.
Because of these obstacles, the models do not indicate that TD 25 will achieve hurricane strength over the next five days. Beyond five days, wind shear is likely to decrease and dry air will lessen, as the cold front and associated trough over the Gulf of Mexico weaken. These factors may allow TD 25 to intensify beyond the next five days.
Heavy rains possible in Florida
The trough of low pressure that TD 25 will encounter this weekend will also act to shunt tropical moisture from the system to the northeast over Florida. This is a favorable setup for what is referred to as a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE), which could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of central Florida. The experimental HAFS model (Figure 2) is predicting more than five inches of rain over a five-day period for central Florida.
Impressive category 4 Hurricane Marie churns in the northeast Pacific
In the northeast Pacific, over 1,000 miles west-southwest of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, Hurricane Marie vaulted to category 4 status with 130 mph winds and a 948 mb central pressure at 11 a.m. EDT Friday morning.
This intensity ties Marie with Hurricane Douglas of July and Hurricane Genevieve of August as the basin’s most intense hurricane of 2020. Marie still has a window of opportunity to intensify into a stronger storm on Friday before crossing into a region of cooler ocean temperatures and higher wind shear that will likely induce significant weakening beginning on Saturday. Marie is not a threat to any land areas.
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Posted on October 2, 2020 (1:27pm EDT).
Morning everyone….wind shear to the north appears to be giving Gamma some decent outflow channels….even to the south winds aloft are showing good breathing….
NWS is apparently in agreement with that for parts of central Florida. NWS Melbourne office has issued flood watches in effect until the morning of Oct. 5, although the focus is mainly over the next 2 days rather than 5.:
A Flood Watch has been issued for all of east-central Florida,
except Okeechobee County, through Monday morning. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-4″ with isolated amounts of 6-8″ are possible.
This heavy rain will produce new flooding or worsen ongoing flooding
in parts of our area, especially in Martin and St. Lucie Counties.
Gamma 10032020 0150z
I noticed in the companion article by Richels et al, the phrase “…hurricanes of unexperienced ferocity…and unpredictability…” ‘Unexperienced’ seems unjustified, as we have had plenty of ferocious storms — Galveston, Labor Day, Camille — and hurricane predictability has never been better.
Meanwhile we’re getting wet in S. FLA. 🙂
My guess is that the unpredictability they mention is a reference to rapid intensification. Forecasting of storm track and intensity are definitely better than ever, but I think the models still seem to have a lot of trouble with RI.
I’d agree if they had said so.
whew Flooding in Florida is becoming a very real threat thru the coming week isnt it?
Thunderstorms have wrapped 75% around the center of TD 25, if this continues I could see rapid intensification happening tonight- low shear, insane oceanic heat content, immense convergence at the lower levels, and upper level anticyclone overhead, which would steer the storm further north and east, creating a situation where it may avoid landfall on the Yucatan and strengthen further. Regardless, life threating flooding rain for Central America and Cuba and the Yucatan and lots of rain for the Florida Peninsula as well.
Western Caribbean has some very deep warm waters currently…..lots of energy for systems to intensify (if other variables are favorable)…..TCHP via the AOML….
I wonder if the east Caribbean wave might hit west FL and create a weakness for the bay of Campeche storm (TD) giving FL a 1, 2 punch? Seems strange w/ a front over FL and for being this late in season that the TD would end up so far SW.
Well, SW is where its headed. Ridge building is forcing it to go that way kicking and screaming.
Great to see more than 3 posts here.
Keep on keeping on.
Looks close to TS G to me.
whew sure is alot of moisture with this storm
Yes, sir. Right on.
hmmm maybe another one next week?……..https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2020100200/hwrf-p_mslp_uv850_25L_43.png
I think that is our current yellow X
ok but,,it might be the one behind…https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png
Great update, Dr. Masters…Thanks!
and after the heavy rainfall our east coast and southern FL area’s took yesterday…this storm may turn out to be a Severe flooding event..gee i sure hope not…be safe out there
I live in SE FL, and your comments are very true.
ok now we all along the gulf coast area’s need to stay a lil More alert till we know for sure where the TD is heading huh..myself im ready with my supplies..ive always had the Plywood cut to form a barrier on my windows etc..and we just bought our food supplies just in case…now lets see where,,this storm wants to go in huh…good luck everyone..might be a long weekend
Are you inviting us…if we pass a weather IQ test…to share your “supplies” this weekend? I will bring some chips and a bottle opener. Perhaps Dr. Jeff and Bob could stop by to provide some expert analyses.
Thank You Dr. Seems to me that a big issue, for the future of the storm, is how intense or weak it will be assuming the core does not make landfall, and it is able to slip into the S Gomex through the Yucatan Channel………..Conditions are currently hostile in the Gulf as you note but a stronger storm would have a better time fighting off typical October climatology. Weak steering and slow movement gives the larger synoptic factors around the storm a chance to change to more favorable, or unfavorable, conditions. Have to see where we are on Sunday and Monday to get a better potential grip.
If it threads the need I could def see a much more northern path. Thats a big if.
If pigs could whistle, we would all have a troupe of whistling pigs.
Thank you SO MUCH for these articles, you are the a vital source for in-depth, knowledgeable meteorological analysis. Keep ’em comin!
TD25 is a bit further west. Consolidating quite nicely!
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