Orange sky from fires
Four separate wildfires in California had generated over $1 billion in losses by the end of September 2020, including the North Complex Fire, which turned San Francisco’s skies orange in this image from September 9 showing the city’s skyline and Bay Bridge. (Image credit: Christopher Michael)

September 2020 was the warmest September since global record keeping began in 1880, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported October 14.

The month was just 0.02 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record, held jointly by September 2015 and 2016. NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated the month as the warmest September on record, and the Japan Meteorological Agency rated it as the third-warmest September on record. Minor differences in rankings often occur among various research groups, the result of different ways they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

The nine months of January through September were 1.02 degrees Celsius (1.84°F) above the 20th-century average, NCEI reported. That nine-month period ranks as the second-warmest such period on record, only 0.04 degrees Celsius (0.07°F) behind the record set in 2016. According to NCEI’s annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 is virtually certain to rank among the five warmest years on record, making each of the seven calendar years 2014 through 2020 one of the seven warmest years on record, dating back to 1880.

The NCEI outlook finds that 2020 has a 65% chance of displacing 2016 as the warmest year on record, and a 35% chance of being the second-warmest year on record. These odds are based on statistical relationships rather than unfolding weather and climate events, and the La Niña event now in progress (see below) will make 2020 less likely to be the warmest year on record.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2020, the warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Europe had its warmest September on record, while South America, Asia, and Oceania had their second-warmest September since regional records began in 1910. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI).

Global ocean temperatures during September 2020 were the fourth-warmest on record, and global land temperatures the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2020 for the lowest eight kilometers of the atmosphere were the second-warmest or third-warmest in the 42-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville and Remote Sensing Systems, respectively.

Global temperature records are more likely to be set during the peak of the solar cycle, and during strong El Niño events, when the extra heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean is given up to the atmosphere. Remarkably, the record warmth of September 2020 came during the minimum of one of the weakest 11-year solar cycles in the past century, and during a La Niña event, when cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean helps cool global temperatures. That record warmth of September 2020, and for the year as a whole, underscores the dominant role of human-caused global warming in heating the planet.

In an October 14 press release, climate scientist James Hansen argued that global warming has accelerated over the past five years. As evidence, he pointed out that the global temperature increase, which had been stable at 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade, has increased substantially. He attributed the acceleration to changes in levels of sunlight-blocking aerosol particles in the atmosphere.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. for 2020 through October 7. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

U.S. ties record for most billion-dollar weather disasters in a year: 16

In 2020 (as of October 7), 16 weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each have occurred in the United States, according to NOAA/NCEI. This ties the all-time record for most billion-dollar weather disasters in an entire year, held jointly by 2011 and 2017. If the damages from last week’s Hurricane Delta eclipse $1 billion, 2020 will set a new record, with 17 billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. The 1980–2019 annual average is 6.6 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2015-2019) is 13.8 events (CPI-adjusted).

The 2020 list included one drought event, 11 severe storm events, three tropical cyclone events, and one wildfire event. Together, these events killed 188 people and cost over $46 billion.

Since 1980, the U.S. has sustained 279 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (2020 dollars). The total cost of these 279 events exceeds $1.825 trillion. The U.S. disaster costs from billion-dollar weather events over the last five years (2016-2020) exceeded $550 billion, a record for any five-year period.

U.N report: ‘We willingly and knowingly continue to sow the seeds of our own destruction, despite the science and evidence that we are turning our only home into an uninhabitable hell.’

In a January 2020 review of the 2010-2019 U.S. billion dollar weather disasters, NOAA stated: “The number and cost of disasters are increasing over time due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., values at risk of possible loss), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage does the intensity (wind speed, flood depth) at a location cause) and that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters (NCA 2018, Chapter 2).”

U.N. calls attention to ‘staggering’ rise in natural disasters

An October 13 report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) found a “staggering” rise in climate-related disasters, including extreme weather events: those nearly doubled, from 3,656 in 1980-1999 to 6,681 in 2000-2019. The number of major floods more than doubled, from 1,389 to 3,254, and the incidence of destructive storms increased from 1,457 to 2,034.

The U.N. report blamed human-caused climate change as a significant factor in the increased disasters, and warned, “It is baffling that we willingly and knowingly continue to sow the seeds of our own destruction, despite the science and evidence that we are turning our only home into an uninhabitable hell for millions of people.” The U.N. report authors called attention to “industrial nations that are failing miserably on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to levels commensurate with the desired goal of keeping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius as set out in the Paris Agreement.”

Eight global billion-dollar weather disasters in September; 35 for 2020 through September

Eight billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the September 2020 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon, bringing this year’s total number of billion-dollar weather disasters through the end of September to 35. For comparison, both 2019 and 2018 had 40 billion-dollar weather disasters during the entire year. Details on each of the eight September 2020 events follow.

— Hurricane Sally, Alabama and Florida

Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on September 16 as a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Moving at less than 5 mph at landfall, Sally lingered over the Southeast for multiple days, dumping 10 to 20 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches, in southern Alabama and in the Florida panhandle. Sally killed eight people and caused at least $5 billion in damage.

— California wildfires

Four separate fires in California had generated over $1 billion in losses by the end of September: the CZU Complex ($3.5 billion), LNU Complex ($1.6 billion), North Complex ($1 billion), and Glass Fire ($1 billion). Eleven additional fires in California, Oregon, and Washington each had over $100 million in losses.

The unprecedented fire events of September included the largest fires on record in California (the August Complex, at over 1,000,000 acres burned) and also in Washington (the Washington Labor Day Fires, at over 400,000 acres burned). California’s August Complex Fire was the largest wildfire in the continental U.S. since the Great Fire of 1910 consumed over three million acres in Idaho and Montana.

The direct death toll from the Western U.S. fires in 2020 is at least 43, but the indirect death toll due to inhalation of wildfire smoke is likely in the thousands, researchers at Stanford University reported in a September 11 study. The research found that between 1,200 and 3,000 excess deaths occurred in California among people 65 and older between August 1 and September 10 from wildfire smoke-related causes.

“This is likely a substantial lower bound,” the researchers wrote, since “Oregon and Washington are being hit very hard right now too, and non-elderly are also surely affected. These overall effects can be in large part attributable to climate change, which has dramatically increased the likelihood and severity of wildfire.”

— Flooding in China

Seasonal monsoon flooding persisted in China in September, killing 11 people and causing $4 billion in damage. The total damage between June 1 and September 30 from China’s monsoon flooding is $32 billion, with 278 deaths. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the international disaster database, that total ranks as the third-most expensive non-U.S. weather disaster since accurate records began in 1990, behind 1998 flooding in China ($48 billion) and 2011 flooding in Thailand ($47 billion).

In a September 2020 study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, “Each 0.5°C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion,” researchers found that annual average flood losses in China during the period 1984-2018 were $19.2 billion (2015 dollars), which was 0.5% of China’s GDP. Annual flood losses increased to $25.3 billion annually during the period 2006-2018. The study authors predicted that each additional 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming will increase China flood losses by $60 billion per year.

— Flooding in India

Heavy monsoon rains severely affected nine states in India in September, killing 255 people and causing billions in damage. The total death toll from this year’s monsoon floods is 1,925, with economic losses of over $6 billion. This year’s total monsoon rainfall across India was 9% above average as of September 30, according to the India Meteorological Department. The 2019 monsoon season produced 110% of average rainfall; together, 2019 and 2020 are India’s wettest two-year period since the 1950s.

— Flooding in Pakistan

Heavy monsoon rains severely affected Pakistan in September, bringing the seasonal flooding death toll to 402, with $1.5 billion in damage.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Smoke pours over the Pacific Ocean on September 9, from unprecedented wildfires in Oregon and California. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Through the end of September, Earth had 35 billion-dollar weather disasters for the year, 21 of them in the United States, surpassing Aon’s previous U.S. record of 20 in 2017. Note that Aon’s list has more billion-dollar events for the U.S. (20) than NOAA’s list (16), mostly because Aon classified four different wildfires in California as separate billion-dollar events; NOAA treated all Western U.S. wildfires as one event.

Here is the 2020 list of billion-dollar weather disasters through September, listed by dollars of damage, according to Aon:

1. Flooding, China, Jun.-Sep., $32 billion, 279 killed;
2. Cyclone Amphan, India and Bangladesh, May 15-22, $13 billion, 118 killed;
3. Hurricane Laura, U.S., Aug. 27-29, $14 billion, 33 killed;
4. Severe weather (derecho), Midwest U.S., Aug. 8-12, $8 billion, four killed;
5. Flooding, India, Jun.-Aug., $6.0 billion, 1925 killed;
6. Hurricane Sally, Southeast U.S., Sep. 11-18, $5 billion, eight killed;
7. Hurricane Isaias, Eastern U.S., Aug. 2-4, $5 billion, 15 killed;
8. Flooding, Japan, Jul. 3-10, $5 billion, 82 killed;
9. Wildfire (CZU Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 17-Sep. 22, $3.5 billion, one killed;
10. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 10-14, $3.45 billion, 38 killed;
11. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 6-9, $3.0 billion, zero killed;
12. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Mar. 27-30, $2.9 billion, zero killed;
13. Windstorm Ciara, Western & Central Europe, Feb. 9-10, $2.6 billion, 14 killed;
14. Drought, northern and western China, Jan.-Aug., $2.4 billion, zero killed;
15. Severe weather/Nashville tornado, Central and Eastern U.S., Mar. 2-5, $2.4 billion, 25 killed;
16. Wildfires and Heatwave, Australia, Nov.-Jan., $2+ billion, 34 killed;
17. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest U.S., May 16-21, $1.9 billion, one killed;
18. Severe weather, Rockies, Plains, and Midwest U.S., May 20-24, $1.65 billion, two killed;
19. Wildfire (LNU Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 17-Oct. 2, $1.6 billion, five killed;
20. Severe weather, Australia, Jan. 18-20, $1.6 billion, zero killed;
21. Severe weather, Texas, May 27-28, $1.55 billion, zero killed;
22. Flooding, Pakistan, Jun.-Sep., $1.5 billion, 410 killed;
23. Typhoon Hagupit, China and Taiwan, Aug. 3-4, $1.5 billion, one killed;
24. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Feb. 3-8, $1.5 billion, five killed;
25. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and Midwest U.S., May 4-5, $1.5 billion, zero killed;
26. Severe weather, Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic U.S., Apr. 21-24, $1.45 billion, seven killed;
27. Severe weather, Canada, Jun. 13-14, $1.4 billion, zero killed;
28. Severe weather, Central and Eastern U.S., Jan. 10-12, $1.28 billion, 12 killed;
29. Severe weather, Rockies, Midwest, Plains, Southeast U.S., Jul. 10-12, $1.2 billion, zero killed;
30. Flooding, Iran, Feb. 24–Apr. 30, $1.2 billion, 23 killed;
31. Severe weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast, U.S., Apr. 27-30, $1.05 billion, zero killed;
32. Severe weather, Australia, Feb. 2-11, $1.0 billion, zero killed;
33. Wildfire (North Complex Fire), California (U.S.), Aug. 18-Oct. 1, $1.0 billion, 15 killed;
34. Wildfire (Glass Fire), California (U.S.), Sep. 27-Oct. 1, $1.0 billion, zero killed; and
35. Drought, U.S., Jan.-Sep., $1.0 billion, zero killed.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Typical global weather conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter during a La Niña event. (Image credit: NOAA)

La Niña strengthens, predicted to surpass moderate-strength threshold

La Niña conditions strengthened during September, prompting NOAA to continue its La Niña advisory in an October 8 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) were approximately 0.9 degrees Celsius below average, with 0.5 degrees below average being the threshold for “weak” La Niña conditions. The threshold for “moderate” La Niña conditions is Niño 3.4 SSTs of at least 1.0 degree Celsius below average.

Forecasters at NOAA and at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society expect La Niña conditions to continue through the winter (85% chance) and through the February-April period (60% chance). They predicted that La Niña would peak during the November-December-January period as a “moderate” event. If this forecast holds, the 2020-2021 La Niña will be the strongest since the “moderate” La Niña of 2011-2012. The most recent “strong” La Niña event (Niño 3.4 SSTs at least 1.5 degrees Celsius below average) occurred in 2010-2011.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Arctic sea ice age near the time of the annual minimum in 1985 (left) and in 2020 (right). There is very little old, thick ice left in the Arctic, increasing the chances of a late-summer ice-free Arctic by the 2030s. (Image credit: Zack Labe)

Arctic sea ice: second-lowest September extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during September 2020 was the second-lowest in the 42-year satellite record, behind 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice reached its annual minimum on September 15, 2020.

By the end of September, the Northern Sea route along the northern coast of Russia was still open to ice-free navigation, as it had been since mid-July. In the Canadian Arctic, the southern branch of the Northwest Passage (famed explorer Roald Amundsen’s route) had re-frozen enough to close the passage after it had been open much of August and September.

Antarctic sea ice extent in September 2020 was above average, and may have reached its annual maximum extent on September 28.

Notable global heat and cold marks for September 2020

– Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 51.7°C (125.1°F) at Death Valley, California, September 5;
– Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -48.1°C (-54.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, September 25;
– Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 45.5°C (113.9°F) at Pozo Hondo, Paraguay, September 26;
– Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -77.2°C (-107.0°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, September 10;
– Highest 2020 average temperature to date (Jan. 1-September 30) worldwide: 32.1°C (89.8°F) at Yelimane, Mali; and
– Highest 2020 average temperature to date (Jan. 1-September 30) in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.8°C (85.6°F) at Surabaya Airport, Indonesia.

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera (http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm))

Major weather stations’ new all-time heat or cold records in September 2020

Among global stations with a period of record of at least 40 years, 46 set (not just tied) a new all-time heat record in September. Four of these stations broke their previous all-time record on multiple days. No stations set all-time cold records:

Nikaho (Japan) max. 38.2°C, September 3;
Amagasaki (Japan) max. 35.3°C, September 3;
Wajima (Japan) max. 38.6°C, September 3;
Osmanyie (Turkey) max. 45.3°C, September 3;
Mersin (Turkey) max. 41.5°C, September 3;
Iskenderun (Turkey) max. 43.7°C, September 3;
Jerusalem (Israel) max. 42.3°C, September 3; beaten again with 42.7°C on September 4;
Ayelet Hashahar (Israel) max. 46.6°C, September 3;
Kfar Blum (Israel) max. 47.0°C, September 3;
Eilat (Israel) max. 48.9°C, September 4;
Athienou (Cyprus) max. 46.0°C, September 4;
Nicosia (Cyprus) max. 46.2°C, September 4;
Kornos (Cyprus) max. 44.3°C, September 4;
Prodromos (Cyprus) max. 38.0°C, September 4;
El Cajon (California, USA) max. 45.6°C, September 5;
Alpine (California, USA) max. 45.0°C, September 5;
Woodland Hills (California, USA) max. 49.4°C, September 6;
Escondido (California, USA) max. 46.1°C, September 6;
Idlyllwild (California, USA) max. 40.0°C, September 6;
San Luis Obispo (California, USA) max. 47.2°C, September 6;
Pinnacles (California, USA) max. 47.8°C, September 6;
Tijuana (Mexico) max. 43.3°C, September 6;
Cuiaba (Brazil) max. 42.6°C, September 10; beaten again with 42.7°C on September 13 and again with 43.7°C on September 30;
Conceicao do Araguaia (Brazil) max. 41.7°C, September 10;
Canefield Airport (Dominica) max. 35.7°C, September 15: (New national record high for Dominica);
Corrientes (Argentina) max. 42.5°C, September 26; beaten again with 43.3°C on September 30;
Pozo Hondo (Paraguay) max. 45.5°C, September 26: (New national record high for Paraguay);
Asuncion Airport (Paraguay) max. 42.3°C, September 26;
San Estanislao (Paraguay) max. 40.8°C, September 26;
Coxim (Brazil) max. 44.1°C, September 30;
Paranaiba (Brazil) max. 42.8°C, September 30;
Rondonopolis (Brazil) max. 42.7°C, September 30;
Diamantino (Brazil) max. 42.5°C, September 30;
Votuporanga (Brazil) max. 41.8°C, September 30;
Lins (Brazil) max. 41.9°C, September 30;
Catanduva (Brazil) max. 41.2°C, September 30;
Campo Grande (Brazil) max. 40.8°C, September 30;
Presidente Prudente (Brazil) max. 40.8°C, September 30;
Rancharia (Brazil) max. 40.3°C, September 30;
Londrina (Brazil) max. 39.4°C, September 30;
Jales (Brazil) max. 41.7°C, September 30;
Ciudad del Este Guarani Airport (Paraguay) max. 42.4°C, September 30;
Asuncion Airport (Paraguay) max. 42.4°C, September 30;
Salto del Guaira (Paraguay) max. 42.0°C, September 30;
Robore (Bolivia) max. 42.0°C, September 30; and
San Matias (Bolivia) max. 43.3°C, September 30.

11 all-time national/territorial heat records set or tied in 2020

As of October 19, 2020, eleven nations or territories had set or tied an all-time national heat record:

Colombia: 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Jerusalen, February 19 (tie);
Ghana: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Navrongo, April 6;
Cuba: 39.2°C (102.6°F) at Palo Seco, April 10; broken again April 11 with 39.3°C (102.7°F) at Veguitas, and again on April 12 with 39.7°C (103.5°F) at Veguitas;
Mayotte, France department: 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Trevani, April 14;
Taiwan: 40.5°C (104.9°F) at Taimali Research Center, July 16;
Lebanon: 45.4°C (113.7°F) at Houche Al Oumara, July 27;
United States: 54.4°C (129.9°F) at Death Valley, California, August 16;
Japan: 41.1°C (106.0°F) at Hamamatsu, August 17;
Dominica: 35.7°C (96.3°F) at Canefield Airport, September 15;
Puerto Rico (U.S. territory): 37.8°C (100.0°F ) at Aguirre, September 17; and
Paraguay: 45.5°C (113.9°F ) at Pozo Hondo, September 26.

No all-time national/territorial cold records have been set thus far in 2020.

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)

102 additional monthly national/territorial 2020 heat records beaten or tied as of October 19

In addition to the 11 all-time national heat records, 102 other national monthly heat records have been set so far in 2020, for a total of 113 national monthly heat records:

– January (13): Norway, South Korea, Angola, Congo Brazzaville, Dominica, Mexico, Indonesia, Guinea Bissau, Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, Cuba, British Indian Ocean Territory, Singapore;
– February (12): Spain, Antarctica, Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, The Bahamas, Switzerland, Maldives, Gambia, Russia, Seychelles, Dominican Republic, U.S. Virgin Islands;
– March (7): Paraguay, Cabo Verde, Mozambique, Seychelles, United States, Thailand, Northern Mariana Islands;
– April (14): Paraguay, Niger, St. Barthelemy, Honduras, Guernsey, Haiti, Congo Brazzaville, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, China, Saba, Northern Mariana Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic;
– May (10): Niger, Greece, Saba, Cyprus, Solomon Islands, Turkey, Haiti, Kazakhstan, Chile, Uzbekistan;
– June (6): Maldives, Thailand, U.S. Virgin Islands, Saba, Kenya, Ghana;
– July (7): Mozambique, U.S. Virgin Islands, Laos, Myanmar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Northern Mariana Islands;
– August (6): Solomon Islands, Mexico, Australia, Cocos Islands, Paraguay, U.S. Virgin Islands;
– September (18): Laos, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Mexico, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Botswana, St. Barthelemy, Mayotte, Argentina, Brazil, British Indian Ocean Territory; and
– October (9): Algeria, Brazil, Tunisia, Turkey, Cyprus, Jordan, Peru, Myanmar, Northern Mariana Islands.

Two monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied in 2020

– April: St. Eustatius; and
– October: Aruba.

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2020

– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in January: 29.1°C (84.4°F) at Bonriki, Kiribati, January 17;
– Highest maximum temperature ever recorded in North America in January: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Vicente Guerrero, Mexico, January 21;
– Highest temperature ever recorded in continental Antarctica and highest February temperature ever recorded in Antarctica plus the surrounding islands: 18.4°C (65.1°F) at Base Esperanza, February 6;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in Antarctica: 7.6°C (45.7°F) at Base Marambio, February 9;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in March in the Northern Hemisphere: 32.0°C (89.6°F) at Yelimane, Mali, February 23;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in the Southern Hemisphere: 31.1°C (88.0°F) at Argyle, Australia, April 2;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in Europe: 30.1°C (86.2°F) at Emponas, Greece, May 17;
– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in North America: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Death Valley, California (U.S.), May 28;
– Highest temperature ever recorded in the polar regions: 38.0°C (100.4°F) at Verkhoyansk, Russia, June 20;
– Highest reliable temperature ever recorded on Earth: 54.4°C (129.9°F) at Death Valley, California, August 16;
– Highest reliable minimum temperature ever recorded in August in North America: 40.0°C (104.0°F) at Death Valley, California (U.S.), August 17; and
– Highest temperature ever recorded in Australia and Oceana in August: 40.7°C (105.3°F) at Yampi Sound, Australia, August 22; beaten again with 41.2°C (106.2°F) at West Roebuck, Australia, on August 23.

August 2020 was the world’s second-warmest August on record, NOAA reports

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Note that Mr. Herrera is now on Twitter, and you can keep up with his remarkable statistics on his Extreme Temperatures Around The World Twitter handle.)

Bob Henson contributed to this post. Editor’s note: this post was updated October 19 to add the new October monthly record for the Northern Mariana Islands.

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Topics: Weather Extremes
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HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 3:00 AM JST October 20 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.0N 126.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.4N 123.4E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) in Sea East of the Philippines
24 HRS: 15.9N 120.7E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Over land Pangasinan province (Luzon/Philippines)
48 HRS: 16.3N 116.4E – 50 knots (CAT CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.8N 114.0E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

comment image Philippines Luzon region Signal Warnings for Depression 19

Screenshot_2020-10-19 Tropical Depression PEPITO Advisory No 03 – Typhoon2000 Philippine TC Advisories.png
Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Afrim Alimeti
Afrim Alimeti
1 month ago

comment image

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
1 month ago

Looks like Epsilon is going to be a fish storm with possible Bermuda hit. Will Zeta form south of Cuba?

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “PEPITO” ACCELERATES WESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.

  • Track and intensity outlook:
  • Track: “PEPITO” will move west northwestward or northwestward today, then turn westward tomorrow towards the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area between tomorrow evening and Wednesday early morning. It may emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning
  • Intensity: “PEPITO” is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm before it makes landfall. After crossing the landmass of Luzon, “PEPITO” may further intensify over the West Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category by Thursday.
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image Tropical Depression 19W heading towards the Philippines

Screenshot_2020-10-19 Tropical Depression PEPITO Advisory No 01 – Typhoon2000 Philippine TC Advisories.png
Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 5:30 AM IST October 18 2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARB03-2020
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Depression moved further westwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea & neighborhood.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from RSMC New Delhi on ARB03

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Gregorio O DeMojeca
Gregorio O DeMojeca
1 month ago

comment image

Gregorio O DeMojeca
Gregorio O DeMojeca
1 month ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 9:00 AM JST October 19 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.3N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.2N 124.8E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 15.5N 118.9E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.8N 115.1E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
NCHurricane2009
1 month ago

My latest birdseye view chart and post of the Atlantic tropics is up at this link. Has detailed info on the expected evolution of 94L, definitely looks like it will become Subtropical Storm Epsilon at some point.

Amature Met
Amature Met
1 month ago

subtropical low 94L is slowly headed over slightly warmer water.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago
Reply to  Amature Met

And the 00z Run of the GFS sees it heading towards the Atlantic Coast when a very timely cold front arrives at or near hr. 108, and gives it pre-Halloween scare and causes the most abrupt immediate U-Turn ever turning a possible destructor/killer into just another fish storm OTS happens! 2020 in the US Southeast Mid-Atlantic States, just got much safer if that happens. Let it be so….

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020101900&fh=30

At hr 108 it is on a trajectory for NY City, by hr 138 the UK.

Last edited 1 month ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Sry Bermuda, I know it is the last thing you need another of this season. Start battening down the hatches, another big blow coming it sure looks like.

Skyepony
1 month ago

Incoming..

WUNIDS_map.gif
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8 – 5:30 AM IST October 18 2020
DEPRESSION ARB03-2020
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Depression moved westwards with a speed of 7 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea near 17.8N 66.4E, about 540 km southwest of Veraval (Saurashtra– Gujarat) and 1320 km east northeast of Salalah (Oman).

It is very likely to move nearly westwards during next 24 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.

As the system is very likely to continue to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather associated with this system is likely over the west coast of India. However, Fishermen warning prevails over northern parts of central Arabian Sea and northern Arabian Sea.

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

comment image

NCHurricane2009
1 month ago

My latest birdseye view chart and post of the Atlantic tropics at this link. I discuss subtropical low 94L, the western Caribbean, as well as all the thunderstorm activity in the eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Skyepony
1 month ago

comment image

Stormfury
Stormfury
1 month ago

There seems to be an area of disturbed weather trying to form east of the windward islands

PR-S.O.S.
1 month ago
Reply to  Stormfury

I’ve been watching it, even show some surface twisting, and producing decent convection, of course lots of shear on the area…

Last edited 1 month ago by PR-S.O.S.
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 23:30 PM IST October 17 2020
DEPRESSION ARB03-2020
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Depression moved nearly westwards with a speed of 13 km/h during past 6 hours and lay centered over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea near 17.8N 66.8E, about 500 km southwest of Veraval (Saurashtra– Gujarat) and 1370 km east northeast of Salalah (Oman).

It is very likely to move nearly westwards during next 36 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.

As the system is very likely to continue to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather associated with this system is likely over the west coast of India. However, Fishermen warning prevails over central and northern Arabian Sea.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6 – 17:30 PM IST October 17 2020
DEPRESSION ARB03-2020
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Depression moved nearly westwards with a speed of 17 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea near 17.8N 67.5E, about 460 km southwest of Veraval (Saurashtra– Gujarat) and 1440 km east-northeast of Salalah (Oman).

It is very likely to move nearly westwards during next 36 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.

As the system is very likely to continue to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather associated with this system is likely over the west coast of India. However, Fishermen warning prevails over central and northern Arabian Sea.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The estimated central pressure of the depression is 1000 hPa.

As per satellite imagery, the system has intensity T1.5 and shows shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared to the west of the system center. Broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over east central adjoining northeastern Arabian sea between 16.5N to 22.0N & 62.0E to 68.0E in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -90C.

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 – 8:30 AM IST October 17 2020
DEPRESSION ARB03-2020
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite & Ship observations indicate that the well marked low pressure area over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea has concentrated into a depression and lay centered over east central & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea near 17.8N 69.0E, about 380 km south southwest of Veraval (Saurashtra – Gujarat), 440 km west northwest of Mumbai and 1600 km east northeast of Salalah (Oman).

It is very likely to move nearly westwards during next 48 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.

As the system is very likely to move away from the Indian coast no adverse weather associated with this system is likely over the west coast of India. However, Fishermen warning prevails over central and northern Arabian Sea .

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4 – 5:30 AM IST October 17 2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARB03-2020
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The well marked low pressure area over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea off southern Gujarat coast moved west northwestwards and lays centered over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian sea

It is very likely to move further west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian sea during next 12 hours.

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
NCHurricane2009
1 month ago

Good early afternoon to all, my latest birdseye view post and chart of the Atlantic tropics is at this link. Discuss what’s going on with all areas of interest in the Atlantic tropics. Really impressed with how nicely the new central Atlantic subtropical surface low pressure is coming together, I am now thinking it has a 70% shot at become Subtropical Storm Epsilon.

Skyepony
1 month ago

Florida Blob..

10161621FlBlob.gif
Skyepony
1 month ago

That is a staggering list of disasters and records…especially for a La Nina year in solar minimum. Thanks for putting it all in one place.

94L out there in the mid-Atlantic..

1016122094L.png
Mary Battle
Mary Battle
1 month ago

Does anyone know if a presidential election vote ever had to be delayed – on Election Day – because of a hurricane? Curious what would happen if nobody could vote in South FL, or Tampa, for example, because of a Wilma type storm on a presidential Election Day… would northern FL just say tough luck, you should have voted early?

ERTBen
ERTBen
1 month ago
Reply to  Mary Battle

Hurricane Sandy struck New York and New Jersey a week before the 2012 Presidential election. It did cause the closure of some early voting sites, but it didn’t delay the election itself. No general election in the US has ever been delayed, even during crises like the Civil War or the 1918 Pandemic. The Congressional Research Service did a report on past election delays that year which gives a good overview: https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/CRS-hurricane-impact.pdf

Ray
Ray
1 month ago

Great post with tons of data… that the climate deniers will ignore.

steele9000
steele9000
1 month ago
Reply to  Ray

Other than that they’ll say it’s wrong with no supporting data of their own.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Well put together blog post….a very telling, yet excellent read! Thanks Dr. Masters and Bob!

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2 – 8:30 AM IST October 16 2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARB03-2020
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The well marked low pressure area centered over east central Arabian Sea off North Maharashtra coast persisted over the same region

It is very likely to move further west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea off northern Maharashtra – southern Gujarat coasts during next 24 hours.

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 5:30 AM IST October 16 2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARB03-2020
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The well marked low pressure area over Konkan and neighborhood moved west northwestwards and emerged into east central Arabian Sea. It lays centered over east central Arabian Sea off northern Maharashtra coast

It is very likely to move further west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea off northern Maharashtra – southern Gujarat coasts during next 24 hours.

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Florida Birdy
Florida Birdy
1 month ago

Thank you for this post, I plan to print it and give it to others. It is truly sad that (1) Some people don’t think we have a climate issue or (2) some just don’t care. It now makes sense on why they are so hell bent on finding another planet that can support life, because they are killing the one we’re on and they need an exit plan. It really makes my heart hurt.

Skyepony
1 month ago
Reply to  Florida Birdy

Some humans are explorers. The space program isn’t all about finding a planet to flee to. So much technology has been developed and improved on that helps us save our resources here on Earth. It has also given humans a larger view of the Galaxies. Just about every astronaut has a description of how going to space made them realize how precious Earth is and brought on an urgency to save our environment here and end conflicts. It’s called the Overview Effect. https://www.nasa.gov/johnson/HWHAP/the-overview-effect

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

comment image BOB02 could become a cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea

Screenshot_2020-10-15 WRF3km-MSLP_72 png (PNG Image, 2048 × 1710 pixels) - Scaled (53%).png
Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Dirk
Dirk
1 month ago

Thanks for the info update Dr. Jeff. Does not look that good for the artic. 🙁 and following that the rest of the world.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Somebody please send a tweet (because I simply don’t twitter), to VP Pence concerning the link to the good Dr.’s honestly compiled & provided data and facts in the article above, so at least he can learn the freaking truth for a change…Even if he will bold face lie to the American public repeatedly during a VP Nominee debate about the simple scientifically based and recorded facts…As, he told Senator Harris quite often during the event…”He is entitled to his outrageously and repeatedly stated false opinions, but he is NOT ENTITLED TO, his own false set of facts!” (To even say once, that Hurricanes are not getting any worse, or more in numbers, during the period of usage of the Greek Alphabet Named Hurricane Delta which had reached Cat4 in record time and hitting the US just 2 days later (post debate), during a record year for named storms in the North Atlantic Basin, proves that somebody is lying again). And I don’t mean Dr. Masters…Ty Doc, Great Data and FACTS compiled all in 1 place!

MORONS GOT TO MORON…and political lying turds, gotta LIE!

MAGA=MORONS ARE GOVERNING AMERICA! KAG=KEEPING AMERICA GRAVEDIGGING.

Please Dear Lord, make the next 20 days go really fast, and the next 3 months even faster! VOTE FOLKS, LIKE YOUR VERY LIVES, and the life of our planet actually depends on it! Because, this time…it really does.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Those 2 Maskless MAGA Mole Troll down votes will just keep me up all afternoon….Yawn. Lol, I must count my blessings, if you (I), must be locked in the house on self imposed covid-19 safety quarantine for 8 very long months and counting (due to high infection rates in our County/State…At least we have had no catastrophic home loss during that time, so we still have a home to live in (many elsewhere do not, and come January or thereafter once the eviction moratoriums expire nationally, many more, no doubt also will not….as the forecast is in the realm of about 40 million evictions nationally in the US will take place due to missed rents), thanks to our once upon a time caring US Representatives and Sinators!

Even if it has cost a bloody fortune (in AC power bills), keeping inside temps comfortably in the mid to high 80’s. May God Bless those who do not and are suffering so. It really didn’t need to be like this! Any of it, weather or the rat nasty covid-19 response. The warnings were all there.

Only the self imposed political Dogma, keeps some from doing the right things…In the name of winning, while losing.

Mary Battle
Mary Battle
1 month ago

I wonder if Seattle will have a winter like 98, 99 when it rained almost every day for months on end. Granted in Seattle its a “play” rain – it just spits at you on and off, but it is really gray and depressing. I lived there starting in 99, 00 and people talked about that La Nina winter as truly awful whenever I complained about the normal winter rains. Hopefully some of that La Nina rain will make its way down to northern/central CA. The hurricane models are worrisome for south FL if something strong arrives right as early voting opens and if there are disruptions w/ electricity up to Election Day.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20 – 5:30 AM IST October 14 2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA BOB02-2020
===========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The well marked low pressure area over southern Madhya Maharashtra & neighborhood moved westwards and lay over southern Madhya Maharashtra & adjoining southern Konkan.

It is very likely to move west northwestwards and emerge into east central Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast and concentrate into a depression over east central & adjoining northeastern Arabian Sea off Maharashtra – southern Gujarat coasts during next 48 hours. It is very likely to move gradually west northwestwards and intensify further.

Patrap
Patrap
1 month ago

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by men and nations..

Nothing will change as to our warming dilemma.

1.5 C is lost.

2 easily.

3 C more certainly than not .

rodserlingfed-998x750.jpg
sdotoole
sdotoole
1 month ago

excellent review of the year so far, whew… THANKS Dr. Masters

Vanessa E Hall
Vanessa E Hall
1 month ago

Thanks, Dr. Masters. The temperature comparison to the 20th century average instead the past couple of decades is especially telling, and something I hope we are beginning to see more of. Even though I live in that always cooler-than-average Midwestern U.S. blob, I’m old enough to feel the longer trend of it’s-getting-warmer, and it helps to read the numbers and see the graphics.

Guy Walton
1 month ago

Great summary as usual Dr. Masters. Thanks so much for call you do!

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
1 month ago

Thank you Dr Masters. That will take some time to read and fully absorb.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago
Reply to  SunnyDaysFl

I have “absorbed” quite enough of the extreme heat this last Summer, for a hundred future Summers, thank you! (I of course, live in 1 of the 2 Record Warmest Deep Red rectangles shown there in the CONUS section of the global map, and not too far east of that highest recorded 129 plus degree temp Death Valley location. The same day period we reached record temps of over 121 F in the shade)…The Hottest day I have ever felt in my lifetime, it was absoloutely and totally unrelenting heat.

Lately 90 degrees with a slight breeze feels like a cool day! And I freeze now in the evening when it reaches a mild 70 degrees F.

Last edited 1 month ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Adding to that, a slew of EPAC Named Storms and Hurricaines, many within a mere few hundred to a thousand miles of us since May, many just going poof over cooler water to our west, or driving by and getting all the wet remnants driven up to Seattle, WA (and not a single drop of rain fell here from any of them including the remnants below us right now, that is being driven away by that fast diving jet), and our normal monsoonal (June~August), daily summer afternoon thunderstorms totally dissappearing this year with zero GOM moisture air flow reaching within even a U.S. State of us…Extreme drought is upon us. Lake Mead is going dry (water and power losses when it does), and the above assures about 7 yrs quicker now, unless CO gets an amazingly high snowpack for the next 6 Winters!

Since early April, we have seen 1-1 hr. Drenching Runoff Flash Flooding Thunderstorm (the day Colorado received Summer snow), 1 Local tornado within 10 miles of our house, and 1- 2 minute sprinkle from a tiny stray cell, and a whole lot of flat smokey air filled days, and 2 local mountain located wildfires within 10 miles and now 20 miles of home.

2020 Covid-19 (voluntary safety quarantine), weather flat sucks.
And that 9″ flat rock in my backyard…My “AZ Weather Station” only got wet once in all that time, though it was under about 5″ of water at the time, in a makeshift nearly instant river.

Let it rain, let it rain….let it rain again some day! Please….

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
1 month ago

Sry, but watching another (very promising and teasing storm enter the Gulf Of Calif like that), and just “go poof” again when we need rain desperately…is madening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid

We like leftovers…..Give us some much needed storm remnants in the US Southwest.