Hurricane Zeta satellite image
GeoColor satellite image of Hurricane Zeta at 11:10 a.m. CDT Wednesday, October 28, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Rising winds, heavy rains, and a significant storm surge are already affecting the coast of southeast Louisiana, where Hurricane Zeta is expected to come ashore late Wednesday afternoon as a category 1 or 2 hurricane. Zeta, likely to be a multi-billion-dollar storm for the U.S. Gulf Coast, will be the eleventh named storm to make landfall in the U.S. so far in 2020, beating the record of nine U.S. landfalls set in 1916. Update: Zeta made landfall at 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday in southeastern Louisiana near Cocodrie as a high-end category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.

Wind and storm surge damage are the main threats posed by Zeta. New Orleans’ levee system is expected to be able to handle the expected peak storm surge of six to nine feet without incident, but surge damages will be heavy in southeastern Louisiana beyond the New Orleans levee system.

Zeta’s curving path to the northeast at landfall will bring the Mississippi and Alabama coasts a significant storm surge. The western Florida Panhandle is also predicted to see a damaging storm surge of two to four feet. High tide in New Orleans and along the Mississippi coast is near 6 p.m. CDT Wednesday, but with the difference between the day’s low tide and high tide less than four inches, the timing of Zeta’s landfall is less critical with respect to peak storm tide levels.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Zeta at 11:28 a.m. CDT Wednesday, October 28, 2020, as the storm approached the Louisiana coast. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Zeta’s curving track at landfall will bring the strong winds of the right front eyewall to a wide swath of the coast, from southeast Louisiana to Mississippi. Given the storm’s very fast forward speed of more than 25 mph at landfall, the winds on the right (east) side of Zeta’s center will be 20 to 30 mph stronger than those on the left (west) side, according to the Wednesday morning runs of the high-resolution hurricane models.

Fortunately, Zeta’s rapid forward speed at landfall will limit rainfall amounts. The current National Hurricane Center forecast calls for two to four inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to six inches – an unusually low amount for a landfalling hurricane. With one of New Orleans’ key pumps to drain the city of excessive rainwater not operating, though, Zeta may still cause damaging rainwater flooding in the city.

Zeta rapidly intensifying Wednesday

Hurricane hunter aircraft from NOAA and the Air Force reported a steady strengthening of Zeta on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the central pressure falling from 990 mb at 7 p.m. CDT Tuesday to 970 mb at 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday, and surface winds rising from 65 mph to 110 mph. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters measured a significant wave height of up to 24 feet near the center of Zeta.

Update: In the 24 hours ending at 4 p.m. CDT October 28, Zeta’s 45-mph increase in winds exceeded the National Hurricane Center’s definition of rapid intensification of at least a 35-mph increase in winds in 24 hours. Zeta is the eighth 2020 Atlantic named storm to rapidly intensify, and the fourth consecutive one to do so:

Hurricane Hanna, July 24–25, 35 mph in 24 hours;
Hurricane Laura, August 26–27, 65 mph in 24 hours;
Hurricane Sally, September 14–15, 40 mph in 24 hours;
Hurricane Teddy, September 17–18, 45 mph in 24 hours;
Tropical Storm Gamma, October 2-3, 35 mph in 24 hours;
Hurricane Delta, October 5–6, 80 mph in 24 hours;
Hurricane Epsilon, October 20–21, 50 mph in 24 hours; and
Hurricane Zeta, October 27-28, 45 mph in 24 hours.

Hurricanes Isaias, Marco, Nana, and Paulette of 2020 did not rapidly intensify. According to statistics compiled by Tomer Berg, the highest number of rapidly intensifying Atlantic storms since 1979 occurred in 1995, with 10.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Predicted wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) for Hurricane Zeta at 5 p.m. EDT (21Z) Wednesday, October 28, from the 2 a.m. EDT (6Z) Wednesday, October 28, run of the HWRF model. The model predicted Zeta would make landfall in Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Track and intensity forecasts for Zeta

There isn’t much mystery about where Zeta will make landfall, with southeastern Louisiana squarely in the crosshairs of the storm, according to the tightly clustered computer model forecasts. The eye of Zeta will make landfall between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. CDT in Louisiana, pass over a portion of the New Orleans metropolitan area, and then move into Mississippi about three hours after its initial Louisiana landfall.

It appears that the hoped-for wind shear to weaken Zeta will be late to arrive, and the hurricane will have at least marginal conditions for intensification for most of the remaining hours before landfall. Ocean temperatures beneath Zeta will fall from 27 degrees Celsius (81°F) to 26 degrees Celsius (79°F), and wind shear will increase from about 10 knots to 20 knots – still in the moderate range. Zeta is well-organized enough to be able to resist this expected increase in wind shear and cooling of ocean temperatures. The top intensity models generally predicted with their Wednesday morning runs that Zeta would be a category 1 or 2 hurricane at the time of landfall in Louisiana, and a reasonable uncertainty range for Zeta’s landfall intensity is between 75 and 110 mph winds – category 1 or 2 hurricane strength.

The live storm surge tracker at Trabus Technologies showed Zeta was generating a storm surge in excess of two feet along the Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. As of 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday, top storm surge levels observed were:

Port Fourchon, LA: 3.1 feet;
Freshwater Canal Locks, LA: 2.8 feet; and
Southwest Pass, LA: 2.5 feet.

Zeta likely to be one of strongest landfalling U.S. hurricanes so late in the year

Tweet by Bowen

Going back to 1851, only five hurricanes have made a mainland U.S. landfall on October 28 or later; Zeta is likely to be the sixth (see Tweet by Steve Bowen of Aon). The five hurricanes were:

Kate, November 21, 1985, category 2, 100 mph winds;
Juan, October 29, 1985, category 1, 85 mph winds;
Unnamed, November 4, 1935, category 2, 100 mph winds;
Unnamed, October 31, 1899, category 2, 110 mph winds; and
Unnamed, November 2, 1861, category 1, 80 mph winds.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University says Zeta is the strongest hurricane ever recorded so far to the west in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the year. If Zeta makes landfall as a hurricane, it will be the sixth continental U.S. landfalling hurricane this year, tying 2020 with 1886 and 1985 for most continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes in a single Atlantic season on record.

Zeta will also be the fifth named storm to make landfall in Louisiana this year, along with Tropical Storm Cristobal, Tropical Storm Marco, Hurricane Laura, and Hurricane Delta. The previous record for most landfalls in a single season in Louisiana was four in 2002, when Tropical Storm Bertha, Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Isidore, and Hurricane Lili all made landfall.

What if the name Zeta needs to be retired?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, if the name Zeta needs to be retired from the list of hurricane names as a result of its impact on Mexico and the U.S., it would be retired as “Zeta 2020” and Zeta would continue to be used when the Greek alphabet is needed again.

Delta, which made landfall in western Louisiana on October 9 as a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, is already a candidate to have its name retired in this fashion. Risk modeler RMS is estimating that Delta did up to $5 billion in insured damage to the U.S. and Mexico, and additional billions in uninsured damage may yet add to that hefty price tag.

Historically, the names of every hurricane doing at least $3 billion in damage have been retired.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Damage from Hurricane Zeta on Cozumel Island on October 27, 2020. (Image credit: Frank Villanueva)

Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula cleans up after Zeta becomes third ‘Greek’ storm of October

Hurricane Zeta made landfall near Tulum, Mexico at 11 p.m. CDT Monday night, October 26, as a category 1 storm with 80 mph winds and a 978 mb central pressure.

Near the time of landfall, a Weatherflow station just south of Playa del Carmen reported sustained winds of 74 mph with a gust to 87 mph. Another Weatherflow station in Cancun reported sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts up to 79 mph. A storm surge of over one meter (3.28 feet) was observed at Puerto Morelos, and rainfall amounts of up to seven inches occurred about 50 miles inland from Zeta’s landfall location.

Zeta did considerable damage to trees, power poles, and billboards in Mexico, but no major damages or deaths or injuries were reported, said the governor of the Quintana Roo state. Tree damage was higher than is usual for a category 1 hurricane, as many of the trees had already been weakened by the landfalls of category 2 Hurricane Delta (110 mph winds) on October 7 and Tropical Storm Gamma (70 mph winds) on October 3. Zeta knocked out power to 253,000 customers in Mexico, but service had been restored to nearly 80% of them by Tuesday night.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on October 28, 2020(1:20pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
39 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Art
Art
29 days ago

models dont have a handle on our next one just yet..meanders ……..comment image

Art
Art
29 days ago

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions are conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Berg

Art
Art
29 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
29 days ago
what a difference a day makes...............Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
401 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

...High Risk Of Rip Currents Through Early Saturday...
...Noticeably Drier And Cooler Weather Today...
...Coolest Temps So Far This Season Possible Early Next Week...

.SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
A cold front across the central Florida peninsula early this
morning will move south of the forecast area by early afternoon.
A band of showers along and ahead of the front will continue to
move south and east in tandem with the front with any remaining
showers over southern areas ending by mid/late morning as drier
and cooler air filters into the region in the wake of the front on
a northwest to northerly wind flow. The cooler drier air moving
into the region will support near seasonal level temperatures with
highs in the mid to upper 70s north, and upper 70s to lower 80s
central and south.

Tonight into Saturday some very delightful weather is expected
with mainly clear skies, noticeably lower humidity levels, and
near seasonal level temperatures as high pressure builds along the
eastern seaboard. Very comfortable conditions are expected
tonight through Saturday with lows tonight falling into the mid to
upper 50s across the Nature Coast, and lower to mid 60s central
and south. During Saturday boundary layer winds will veer to the
northeast and east which will allow temperatures to moderate some
with readings climbing back into the lower to mid 80s from north
to south during the afternoon.
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
30 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 3:00 AM JST October 30 2020
TYPHOON GONI (T2019)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (980 hPa) located at 16.4N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.8N 130.1E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 14.5N 126.4E – 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 15.3N 121.1E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Over land Nueva Ecija (Luzon/Philippines)

————————————————————————————–

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 3:00 AM JST October 30 2020
TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020)
=============================================
Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 9.2N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 11.2N 145.8E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (South Southeast of Guam)
24 HRS: 12.5N 142.7E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (Southwest of Guam)
48 HRS: 15.2N 138.9E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 17.6N 134.8E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

Art
Art
30 days ago
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Zeta, located 
over Virginia.

1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser 
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are 
expected to become more conducive for development of this 
disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the 
system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
NCHurricane2009
30 days ago

Good afternoon to all, my latest birdseye view chart and post on the Atlantic tropics is up at this link. Information on Tropical Storm Zeta explaining how it still is a tropical storm with high winds far inland, and also our disturbance to develop in the Caribbean Sea in the immediate wake of Zeta.

Even though this Caribbean disturbance may develop in the same place Zeta formed, I think at this time we will be spared from another US Gulf coast landfall this time around as a strong surface ridge to build over the United States will thwart its approach (presumably to be named Tropical Storm “Eta”, and if it does get named it will be the most number of tropical storms ever recorded in an Atlantic season on record). But that’s bad news for Nicaragua and Honduras, as that ridge will keep this next storm suppressed to the south. I am hoping forecast “Eta” will be the last major storm of the season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if after “Eta” we get some open ocean late season subtropical or tropical storms that hopefully stay over the open ocean.

Art
Art
30 days ago

comment image

jeffs713
jeffs713
30 days ago
Reply to  Art

That thing by the Bahamas is subtropical at best – the low is very elongated, it doesn’t have any convection on the south or east sides, and it almost looks like the SW side is a frontal boundary (look at the wind barbs, and how sharply they turn).

Oh, and it is 12 days out. Might have better luck looking at tea leaves.

Art
Art
29 days ago
Reply to  jeffs713

yes it didnt impress me either, just posted it because some fish out there

Art
Art
30 days ago
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
30 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17 – 21:00 PM JST October 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GONI (T2019)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Goni (990 hPa) located at 16.7N 134.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.4N 131.2E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 15.4N 128.1E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 15.5N 122.7E – 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

————————————————————————————-

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 – 21:00 PM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020)
=============================================
Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 8.0N 148.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 10.2N 147.0E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (South Southeast of Guam)
24 HRS: 11.7N 144.1E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (South Southwest of Guam)
48 HRS: 14.3N 140.3E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marianas islands (West of Rota)
72 HRS: 16.9N 136.3E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

Art
Art
30 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
30 days ago

ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over central Alabama.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system meanders over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
30 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 15:00 PM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T2019)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (1000 hPa) located at 16.8N 136.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.5N 131.8E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 15.4N 128.7E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 15.0N 124.0E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

——————————————————————————————

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 15:00 PM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
=============================================
Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.3N 148.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 08.7N 148.0E – 30 knots Tropical Depression near Caroline Islands
24 HRS: 10.3N 145.7E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (South Southeast of Guam)
48 HRS: 12.5N 142.0E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (Southwest of Guam)
72 HRS: 14.8N 138.3E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

Art
Art
30 days ago
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over central Alabama.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days.  Gradual 
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week while the system meanders over 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto
Art
Art
30 days ago

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

…ZETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA…
…STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.9N 87.4W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SSE OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for the Mississippi coast
have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida Panhandle has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* From the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
30 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 9:00 AM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T2019)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (1002 hPa) located at 16.6N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.2N 132.1E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 15.0N 128.9E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 14.1N 124.7E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

—————————————————————————————————

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45 – 9:00 AM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TS MOLAVE (T2018)
=============================================
Over land Thailand

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Molave (1004 hPa) located at 15.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on TC Molave from RSMC Tokyo..

————————————————————————————————-

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 9:00 AM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
=============================================
Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.3N 148.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 07.4N 148.0E – 30 knots Tropical Depression near Caroline Islands
24 HRS: 09.2N 147.1E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 12.5N 142.7E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas islands (Southwest of Guam)
72 HRS: 15.1N 139.1E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines

Last edited 30 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Art
Art
30 days ago

and quite possibly yet another one down there……..comment image

Haydn
Haydn
30 days ago

From hurricane-force winds to dead calm in about 15 minutes where I am. Waiting for the back side of the storm.

Skyepony
30 days ago

Zeta has arrived to NOLA.

10282246Zeta.gif
NCHurricane2009
30 days ago

I have a special update on the unexpected intensification of Hurricane Zeta to top end category 2 on the home page of my infohurricanes site. Not sure how to post a link using this comment system from the smartphone, but the site address is infohurricanes followed by the usual com in front. It’s post 163A on the home page

I tried to explain how the jet of upper winds may have aided Zeta instead of shearing it.

Haydn
Haydn
30 days ago

Wind picking up in uptown New Orleans. Looks like we’ll be under or near the eye by around 6 PM.

Skyepony
30 days ago

Put together a mostly self-updating Zeta Landfall blog. It’s coming in fast.. http://skyeponyweather.weebly.com/skyepony-weather/zeta-landfall

Art
Art
30 days ago

on and off pouring down rain here by me…we needed this rain..comment image

Art
Art
30 days ago
Reply to  Art

and maybe thus next one with be giving us more rain??

Skyepony
30 days ago
Reply to  Art

Something needs to finish plumping these bananas and Papayas that are nearly ready here..

Albin Holder
Albin Holder
30 days ago
Reply to  Art

According to past climatology, tropical systems that develop this far south in the Caribbean this late in the season, do not tend to track towards Florida. However, the high which was in place and helped steer Zeta to the west is scheduled to slowly dissipate. So, we will cross our fingers that FL does not get rain…or worse, high wind,s from this system. In any case, you have already stocked up and are prepared for what may…or may not…come.

CubanCane
30 days ago

Rooftop sweeper, why do you keep on purging my posts?

CubanCane
30 days ago

Could someone kindly post the 12z EPS?

They appear to pose a significant threat to southern Florida.

Albin Holder
Albin Holder
30 days ago
Reply to  CubanCane

Really?

Art
Art
30 days ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 3:00 AM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T2019)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (1008 hPa) located at 16.7N 138.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.3N 133.6E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 15.3N 129.5E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 14.0N 124.9E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines

—————————————————————————————————–

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43 – 3:00 AM JST October 29 2020
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T2018)
=============================================
Over land Laos

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (1000 hPa) located at 15.3N 105.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
180 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
90 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.8N 103.5E – Tropical Depression over land Thailand
24 HRS: 16.8N 100.2E – Tropical Depression over land Thailand

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Skyepony
1 month ago

Zeta blowing up before landfall..

10281846Zeta.gif
Skyepony
1 month ago

Zeta close up..

10281810Zeta.png
Mikesurvivor
Mikesurvivor
1 month ago

Thanks Dr. Jeff. Already feeling it(just N. of Panama City, FL). Wind 7-16. Had .5 inches overnight. More to come 🙂

CubanCane
1 month ago

Gracias, Jeffrey!

Muy, pero muy agradecido, acere.

Dirk
Dirk
1 month ago

Thanks for the update Dr. Jeff.

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
1 month ago

Thank You Dr. for the outstanding Update and assessment as to Zeta; that 500 mb Tutt over Texas, that was a factor in the potential weakening/shear process, was still over Texas as of this am giving Zeta a little more room to breathe as you have noted. Hoping that it does not consolidate much more over the next 4-5 hours.