Hurricane Delta radar image
Radar image of Hurricane Delta at 11:06 a.m. EDT Friday, October 9, 2020, as the storm approached the Louisiana coast. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Hurricane Delta is fast approaching a landfall in western Louisiana, where it is expected to come ashore early Friday evening as a category 2 hurricane. Delta will be the tenth named storm to make landfall in the U.S. so far in 2020, beating the record of nine U.S. landfalls set in 1916.

Delta will be the fourth named storm to make landfall in Louisiana this year, along with Tropical Storm Cristobal, Tropical Storm Marco, and Hurricane Laura. This ties the record for most landfalls in a single season in Louisiana, set in 2002, when Tropical Storm Bertha, Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Isidore, and Hurricane Lili all made landfall. Six previous seasons have had three landfalls in Louisiana: 1860, 1885, 1923, 1957, 2005, and 2017.

Delta already causing flood problems in Louisiana

A moist flow of air in advance of Delta brought torrential rains overnight to the northern side of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The airport recorded 7.97 inches of rain between 8 p.m. CDT Thursday and 5 a.m. Friday, with rainfall rates in excess of two inches per hour near midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 12 – 14 inches occurred just to the north of Baton Rouge. In response, the Amite River in Baton Rouge rose over 10 feet in less than four hours, reaching its fourth-highest flood level since records began over 60 years ago. Local media reported a number of high-water rescues in the city.

Overnight, Delta passed directly over Buoy 42002, which recorded a minimum pressure of 953 mb and peak winds of 76 mph, gusting to 98 mph, at 11 p.m. CDT Thursday. The buoy measured a significant wave height of 35.4 feet at 11:50 p.m. CDT, when the eye passed overhead. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters measured significant wave heights (the mean wave height of the highest third of the waves) of up to 32 feet inside Delta on Friday morning.

Hurricane hunter aircraft from both NOAA and the Air Force reported a slow weakening trend of Delta on Friday morning, with its 35-mile-diameter eye open on the south side and the radar presentation of the eye growing less impressive. Delta’s central pressure rose from 953 mb at 5 a.m. EDT to 963 mb at 1 p.m. EDT, and the surface winds decreased from 120 to 110 mph.

Figure 2
Figure 1. GeoColor satellite image of Hurricane Delta at 10:50 a.m. EDT Friday, October 9. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Track forecast for Delta

There isn’t much mystery about where Delta will make landfall, with western Louisiana squarely in the crosshairs of the storm, according to the tightly clustered computer model forecasts. Delta will make landfall over western Louisiana early Friday evening within 50 miles of where devastating category 4 Hurricane Laura came ashore on August 27.

Figure 3
Figure 2. Hurricane Delta as seen from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft on Friday morning, October 9. A gap in the southwest eyewall allowed an unimpeded view of the ocean. (Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA)

Intensity forecast for Delta

Delta will have marginal to hostile conditions for intensification up until landfall. Ocean temperatures beneath it will be 26 degrees Celsius (79°F), wind shear will be high, at 25 – 35 knots, and Delta will be embedded in a dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 40 – 50%. However, Delta is large enough to be able to resist high wind shear and dry air for the short time that remains until landfall. The top intensity models generally predicted with their Friday morning runs that Delta would be a slowly weakening category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall in Louisiana.

Delta has expanded in size, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 40 miles from the center at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, and tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 160 miles. These winds will bring a large and damaging storm surge to the coast, with the National Hurricane Center predicting a peak storm surge of between seven and eleven feet.

The live storm surge tracker at Trabus Technologies showed Delta was generating a significant storm surge along the Louisiana and Texas coasts early Friday afternoon. As of 2 p.m. EDT, here were the top storm surge levels observed:

Freshwater Canal Locks, LA: 5.1 feet;
Calcasieu Pass, LA: 4.1 feet;
Texas Point-Sabine Pass, TX: 3.7 feet; and
San Luis Pass, TX: 3.3 feet.

Figure 4
Figure 3. Predicted wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) for Hurricane Delta at 5 p.m. EDT (21Z) Friday, October 9, from the 2 a.m. EDT (6Z) Friday, October 9, run of the HWRF model. The model predicted Delta would make landfall in Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, just 30 miles to the east of where category 4 Hurricane Laura struck on August 27. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Laura

Hurricane Laura on August 27 roared ashore in western Louisiana as a mighty category 4 storm with 150 mph winds – the strongest landfalling hurricane in Louisiana history, and the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall. Laura brought a storm surge as high as 17.2 feet above dry ground (20 feet above sea level) to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana, ranking as the ninth-highest storm surge on record for the Gulf Coast. In its wake, Laura left 33 people dead in the U.S. and over $14 billion in damage, with Lake Charles, Louisiana, suffering some of the most severe impacts.

How to prepare for a hurricane

Delta will bring damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding rains to many of the same areas devastated by Laura. The last time two hurricanes made a U.S. landfall at nearly the same location during the same year was in 2004, when category 3 Hurricane Jeanne and category 2 Hurricane Frances made landfall within 10 miles of each other near Stuart, Florida, on September 5 and September 26, respectively.

What if the name Delta needs to be retired?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, if the name Delta needs to be retired from the list of hurricane names as a result of its impact on Mexico and Louisiana, it would be retired as “Delta 2020” and Delta would continue to be used when the Greek alphabet is needed again.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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Posted on October 9, 2020 (1:25pm EDT; updated at 2 p.m. with the latest storm statistics).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Art
Art
8 days ago

east coasters might want to keep a good eye on this next week…comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 5:30 AM IST October 11 2020
DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
==============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imageries & ships & buoy observations indicate that yesterday’s well marked low pressure area concentrated into a depression over west central Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 15.3N 86.5E, about 430 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 490 km southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 520 km east southeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

It is very likely to move west northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam during night of October 12th at around 1500-1800 PM UTC.

As per satellite imagery, the system has intensity T1.5, scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. In association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

Last edited 12 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53 – 9:00 AM JST October 11 2020
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (T2014)
==============================================
130 km South Southeast of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-hom (992 hPa) located at 32.1N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 31.2N 141.4E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 260 km southeast of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)
24 HRS: 30.1N 141.4E – Tropical Depression 370 km south southeast of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)

———————————————————————————————

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (T2015)
==================================================
South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (996 hPa) located at 14.7N 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 nm from the center in northern quadrant
180 nm from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.0N 108.0E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) over land Vietnam
24 HRS: 15.1N 105.9E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 3:00 AM JST October 11 2020
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (T2015)
==================================================
South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (1000 hPa) located at 14.5N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.1N 109.0E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
24 HRS: 15.2N 107.3E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) over land Laos
48 HRS: 14.6N 104.4E – Tropical Depression over land Thailand

**tropical storm is forecast to make landfall over Vietnam

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51 – 3:00 AM JST October 11 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (T2014)
==================================================
130 km South Southwest of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom (990 hPa) located at 32.0N 139.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 30.4N 141.1E – Tropical Depression in sea near Ogasawara islands

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image subprefecture Hachijo Observation chart

Screenshot_2020-10-10 Japan Meteorological Agency Table of Hourly Weather Observations (Today Yesterday).png
Last edited 13 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Art
Art
13 days ago

and gee we all here remember IRMA huh

Art
Art
13 days ago

well in September 1921..my county got hit with a major hurricane that came ashore here.comment image?w=1920&h=1080&crop=1

Art
Art
13 days ago
Reply to  Art

opps it was October 1921 sorry

Art
Art
13 days ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 9:00 AM JST October 10 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
==================================================
South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.5N 114.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 14.7N 112.4E – 30 knots Tropical Depression in South China Sea
24 HRS: 14.8N 110.2E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.5N 106.3E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image tropical storm forecast to make landfall over Vietnam over the weekend

Screenshot_2020-10-10 気象庁 台風情報.png
Last edited 14 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45 – 9:00 AM JST October 10 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (T2014)
==================================================
170 km South of Shionomisaki (Wakayama Prefecture)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom (985 hPa) located at 32.0N 135.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 32.2N 139.8E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) 100 km south of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)
48 HRS: 29.9N 140.9E – Tropical Depression in Sea South of Japan

Preston
Preston
14 days ago

Thanks Jeff.

Art
Art
14 days ago

Good Night and be safe out there

Dirk
Dirk
14 days ago

Thanks Dr.Jeff , hope everybody stays save.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

comment image?hash=25041

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
14 days ago

Well, I called this wrong. I thought it was going to be a double-tap for the Mobile/Pensacola area. Why? Because at that point there was a low over the central US that I thought would move east and drag this east.

I wonder if Gamma pulled Delta a bit west early. And then the weakening over the Yucatan prevented the poleward bias of a strong storm from happening early.

Well, either way, the folks in the path are about to have a very rough time. My prayers have been with them. I really feel for those people. All week I’ve had a hard time sleeping worrying that it would still track my way (further east.)

Crazy season. I’m not sure there’s much we can do about the climate in a short or medium term. But I sure hope this year will help people think about it more. All the fires and the historic number of tropical systems…

Art
Art
14 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

yes its been a bad year for alot of reasons Rabbit..and remember the storm did move a lil westward away from new orleans area like it was supposed to in the beginning

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 9 2020
=======================================

A low pressure area formed over northern Andaman sea and neighborhood. It lay over northern Andaman sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal

It is very likely to move west northwestwards & intensify into a depression over central Bay of Bengal by tomorrow morning, October 10th. Further moving west northwestwards, it is very likely to cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast as a depression during the morning of October 12th.

The Madden-Julian oscillation (mjo) index is currently in phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase for next two days and will move to phase 5 thereafter with amplitude remaining more than 1. Thus Madden-Julian oscillation will support enhancement of convective activity over the the Bay of Bengal (bob) for next 5 days. Considering the sea conditions, the sea surface temperature (sst) is 29-30C over entire Bay of Bengal and over Andaman sea. The tropical cyclone heat potential is 80-90 kj/cm2 over major parts of southern & central Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea. It is decreasing becoming about 40-50 kj/cm2 along the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts.

Considering the environmental conditions, the vorticity is around 80×10-6sec-1 over north Andaman sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal with vertical extension up to 500 HPA level. Lower level convergence is about 15×10-5sec-1 over northern Andaman sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal. The upper level divergence is 20×10-5sec-1 to the northwest of the system. The vertical wind shear (vws) is high (30-40 kts) over major parts of Andaman sea and Bay of Bengal and along & off Andhra Pradesh-odisha coasts . The upper tropospheric ridge lies near 25.0N over northeast India.

Most of the models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF NEPS and NCUM are development of depression around October 10, 2020. Models are also indicating that the system will move west northwestwards during subsequent two days and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast as a depression during the morning of October 12th. The genesis potential parameter (gpp) index is indicating potential zone for cyclogenesis on October 9th over Andaman sea with west northwestwards movement towards Andhra Pradesh coast till October 12th.

Last edited 14 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

And here is Delta….

D Radar.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

Lake Charles radar has been down since Laura, so current radar being combined with other sites….but just for a comparison view of Laura and Delta at about the same distance from coast……attached is Laura…..

RAdar.png
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43 – 3:00 AM JST October 10 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (T2014)
==================================================
230 km South of Cape Muroto (Kochi Prefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom (985 hPa) located at 31.3N 134.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 32.1N 139.0E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) 130 km south southwest of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)
48 HRS: 30.7N 141.2E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 300 km south southeast of Hachijo-jima (Hachijo subprefecture)
72 HRS: 28.4N 141.7E – Tropical Depression in Ogasawara waters

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

Thanks for the Friday update, Dr. Masters!

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
14 days ago

Thank You Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson for the update……….Not surprising that Louisiana had 3 landfalls in 2005 and now up to 4 this 2020 hyper-season as well. Shows how vulnerable that State is to an active season………They get of CV seeds that get into the Gulf in August/September, then, a second round from West Caribbean/CA/Gyre storms in October/November in an extended active season. Does not bode well for the future of New Orleans over the coming decades should they have a direct hit from a major whether during any regular season or in another hyper-active one.

Viking1204
Viking1204
14 days ago

Thanks for the update Doc, crazy year for tropics this year among other things!

NCHurricane2009
14 days ago

Thanks Dr. Masters for this update on Hurricane Delta!

Link to my latest birdseye view post and discussion on the rest of the Atlantic tropics, including some areas that might be worth watching in the coming days. I don’t think the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has breathed its last breath just yet, some more activity is likely after Delta.