Hurricane Delta image
Moon-lit look at Tropical Storm Delta at 3:05 a.m. CDT October 10, from the NOAA-20 satellite. Delta at that point was well inland over Louisiana, and had weakened to 45 mph winds. (Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

Hurricane Delta made landfall at 6 p.m. CDT October 9 near Creole, Louisiana – just 12 miles east of where category 4 Hurricane Laura hit on August 27. At landfall, Delta was a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and a central pressure of 970 mb. Delta knocked out power to more than 750,000 customers in Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi as of 7:30 a.m. CDT Saturday, according to poweroutage.us.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Delta at landfall in southwest Louisiana at 5:59 p.m. CDT Friday, October 9. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Hurricane-force winds in Louisiana and Texas

Delta brought hurricane-force wind gusts to Louisiana and Texas, causing extensive wind damage. The highest winds observed in Louisiana were at Lake Arthur, which recorded sustained winds of 77 mph, gusting to 96 mph, around the time of Delta’s landfall. Some other peak wind gusts from Delta:

Texas Point, TX: 100 mph;
Lake Charles Regional Airport, LA: 94 mph;
Calcasieu Pass, LA: 90 mph;
New Iberia, LA: 90 mph;
Port Arthur, TX: 90 mph;
Cameron, LA: 89 mph;
Jennings, LA: 81 mph;
Lafayette, LA: 75 mph;
Opelousas, LA: 75 mph;
Lacassine, LA: 75 mph;
Alexandria, LA: 61 mph;
Baton Rouge, LA: 56 mph; and
New Orleans, LA: 49 mph.

Figure 2
Figure 2. 24-hour precipitation amounts ending at 7 a.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, based on a blend of radar estimates and rain-gauge reports. Delta dumped over 10 inches of rain (white colors) over portions of Louisiana. (Image credit: NOAA)

Rains in excess of 15 inches

Delta dumped torrential rains over much of Louisiana, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts of more than 15 inches between Lake Charles and Alexandria. The heavy rains led to serious flash flooding, and at least three rivers in Louisiana are predicted to go into major flood stage by Monday.

A significant storm surge

Delta generated a significant storm surge along the Louisiana coast near and to the right of where the center came ashore. The highest water level at any monitoring station was observed at Freshwater Canal Locks, where a storm surge of 9.3 feet occurred and was still rising before the gauge stopped transmitting data. Even so, this broke the site’s all-time record set during Hurricane Ike in 2008 by 0.25 feet. The station has recorded data only back to 2008, and it is likely that Hurricane Rita of 2005 brought a higher storm surge to the site.

The live storm surge tracker at Trabus Technologies documented these top storm surge heights from Delta:

Freshwater Canal Locks, LA: 9.3 feet;
Calcasieu Pass, LA: 6.6 feet;
LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA: 6.3 feet;
Eugene Island, LA: 6.2 feet;
Texas Point-Sabine Pass, TX: 4.4 feet; and
San Luis Pass, TX: 3.3 feet.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Continental U.S. landfall in 2020. (Image credit: Steve Bowen, Aon)

Delta is record-breaking tenth named storm of a season to hit U.S.

Delta was the tenth named storm to make landfall in the U.S. in 2020, beating the record of nine U.S. landfalls in a single year, set in 1916. Third place is jointly held by 2004, and 1985, with eight. Remarkably, none of the 2020 landfalls have occurred in Florida, which is the most hurricane-prone state. From 1851 through 2019, the U.S. averaged 3.2 named storm landfalls per year, 1.6 hurricane landfalls, and 0.5 major hurricane landfalls.

Delta was the first U.S. landfalling “Greek” hurricane ever. On September 22, Tropical Storm Beta became the first U.S. landfalling “Greek” named storm in history. The only other year with “Greek” named storms, 2005, had three that made landfall: Alpha, Beta, and Gamma, all in the Caribbean.

Delta was the fifth landfalling hurricane in the continental U.S. this year, which is tied with 2004 and 2005 for the third highest on record. The record is held jointly by 1985 and 1886, with six landfalling hurricanes.

Delta was the fourth named storm to make landfall in Louisiana this year, along with Tropical Storm Cristobal, Tropical Storm Marco, and Hurricane Laura. This ties the record for most landfalls in a single season in Louisiana, set in 2002, when Tropical Storm Bertha, Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Isidore, and Hurricane Lili all made landfall. Six previous seasons have had three landfalls in Louisiana: 1860, 1885, 1923, 1957, 2005, and 2017.

Delta rapidly intensified on its approach toward Cancun, Mexico, becoming the fifth 2020 hurricane to intensify by at least 35 mph in 24 hours, which is the National Hurricane Center definition of rapid intensification. The 2020 list of rapid intensifiers:

Hurricane Hanna, July 24 – 25, 35 mph in 24 hours
Hurricane Laura, August 26 – 27, 65 mph in 24 hours
Hurricane Sally, September 14 – 15, 40 mph in 24 hours
Hurricane Teddy, September 17 – 18, 45 mph in 24 hours
Hurricane Delta, October 5 – 6, 80 mph in 24 hours

Hurricanes Isaias, Marco, Nana, and Paulette did not rapidly intensify.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average on October 10. SSTs were approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) above average in the Caribbean and in the waters surrounding Florida and the Bahamas. Hurricane Delta had caused substantial cooling of the Gulf of Mexico. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

A quiet period ahead for the Atlantic

There was only one area of interest in the Atlantic that NHC was monitoring on Saturday for tropical development – a tropical wave in the central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was under moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots, heading westwards at about 10 – 15 mph, and producing a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. In an 8 a.m. EDT Saturday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. By Wednesday, when the wave will be approaching the Lesser Antilles, wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 – 30 knots, discouraging further development. Later in the week, this system will have to be watched for development when it enters the western Caribbean or waters near the Bahamas.

At least three named Atlantic storms likely during October

The top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing popping up over the next week, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) – a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the equator that moves around the globe in 30 to 60 days – is weak, and is not expected to be in a phase that will enhance Atlantic activity during the coming week. However, with ocean temperatures still much above average in the Caribbean and in waters surrounding Florida and the Bahamas (Figure 4), and in a season with a track record for spitting out record numbers of named storms, at least one or more likely will form in October. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Epsilon.

If the tropics remain quiet, as expected, our next post in this series will be on Wednesday, October 14.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on October 10, 2020 (1:25pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Art
Art
11 days ago

Skye please delete that huge post i just made if you can..didnt come out right

Skyepony (mod)
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

Those usually go right to trash.. I’ve made my share.

Skyepony
11 days ago

93L approaching Barbados.
comment image?w=600&h=600

Skyepony
11 days ago
Last edited 11 days ago by Skyepony (mod)
Art
Art
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

alot of homes around here have solar already..alot use it to heat their hot water etc

Tabludama
Tabludama
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony
Skyepony (mod)
11 days ago
Reply to  Tabludama

First off your source.. Watts Up With That?..always has the fake climate news spun round to keep us using non-renwables and is one that isn’t really accepted by this community as reliable news.. Yes some are reaching end of life, what is hitting the landfills now is not what is being sold today. That is mostly 25yr or older tech that is getting trashed. Your house is full of toxic elements and will someday mostly be trashed. The technology on both is getting better. They pulled a lot of old vinyl and other products out of the landfills and recycled it eventually. Hope the same for much of this. That article is full of trash though. We don’t have any govt support to recycle solar panels in the US because the solar industry has in general been flogged and sued endlessly by big oil as they worked thru the govt to encouraged keeping solar down. Acting like we need superfund laws to deal with old solar panels (that didn’t get sent to a poor nation to use the remaining life in them), like it’s a strip mine or is radioactive…lol. Recycling solar overall is a technology and economic goal we should be striving to work thru. Other countries require them to be recycled and the state of Washington. When you by gas at the pump you don’t pay for the pollution it caused. Nuclear electricity doesn’t include the costs of Superfund and long term storage. Neither pay for the cost in life the pollution caused or the climate change. As a society we’ve long ago decided electricity was more important. And we’ve had opportunity to learn from these mistakes. Some countries have. Here we are still pushing disposable non-renewables & and listening to Watts.. Wired had a much better article about the waste issue…which we can now foresee will be an issue in another 30yrs. We should be insisting on innovation and doing this right this time. And with solar cheaper than any other source it’s the new hot choice. https://www.wired.com/story/solar-panels-are-starting-to-die-leaving-behind-toxic-trash/

Art
Art
11 days ago

comment image?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=XBADRt7aFNYAX-mMPiQ&_nc_ht=scontent.ftpa1-1.fna&oh=822a6fb9668952fd60bc19dea857158f&oe=5FAC7D3C

Art
Art
11 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
11 days ago

comment image

Skyepony
12 days ago

93L

1014095093L.png
Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
12 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

With all the mid level shear in the MDR, I am surprised that 93L made it as far as it did.

Art
Art
12 days ago

gfs still has a storm forming oct 21-23 .comment image

Art
Art
12 days ago

well Good Night All..be safe out there ok

Albin Holder
Albin Holder
12 days ago

In reply to NOT, as you point out, 93L has a short window of opportunity to develop before the upper level winds may become too strong and 93L runs the risk of dissipation. That is certainly a possibility. We should know soon.

Albin Holder
Albin Holder
12 days ago

Regarding 93L, the late cycle models are split: 2 show 93L going north of the Greater Antilles, 2 show it hitting the Dominican Republic and 2 show it going into the Caribbean. As Dr. Jeff might say, the models work better after a depression forms. Stay tuned. Dr. Jeff returns Wednesday and will sort out 93L for us.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

comment image

Depression “Ofel” is forecast to make landfall over Eastern Samar province of the Visayas region.

Screenshot_2020-10-13 Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No 01 – Typhoon2000 Philippine TC Advisories.png
Last edited 12 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 23:30 PM IST October 13 2020
DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Depression over Telangana moved further west northwestwards with a speed of 17 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered near 17.6N 79.5E, about 110 km east-northeast of Hyderabad (Telangana) and 210 km eastsoutheast of Bidar (North Interior Karnataka).

It is very likely to move further west northwestwards and gradually weaken into a Well marked low Pressure area during next 12 hours.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 3:00 AM JST October 14 2020
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (T2016)
=============================================
Gulf of Tonkin

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nangka (990 hPa) located at 19.8N 108.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
270 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 19.6N 106.8E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
24 HRS: 19.4N 104.3E – Tropical Depression over land Vietnam

Not
Not
12 days ago

At 1 p.m. The Weather Channel just said 93l is being torn apart by wind shear and within 2 days there will be no more 93l it will be disintegrated… so all these models that the disguise site is showing a Florida Doom is all nonsense there will be no storm

NCHurricane2009
12 days ago

My latest birdseye view chart and post on the Atlantic tropics at this link. I have raised my odds of tropical wave 93L becoming a short-lived sheared tropical cyclone to 35% given the recent increase in organized thunderstorms

Stormfury
Stormfury
12 days ago

93L trying to close off a low level centre 12n 52.5 w

Art
Art
12 days ago

I for one am waiting for OUR cool down here in Florida whew..

Art
Art
12 days ago

lets see inside of 8 days time..if a LOW forms here…IF it does then timewise its closer to where models can start predicting where it could go..comment image

Skyepony
13 days ago

GEOS-5 had a big shift in forecast..

1013Geos237h.png
Skyepony
13 days ago

Today is International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction.. The UN put out there that people overall are wilfully destructive. Basically between the business practices, politics, corona and disasters we are creating an uninhabitable hell. https://news.trust.org/item/20201012090728-xjrme

Skyepony
13 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

“We are wilfully destructive. That is the only conclusion one can come to”, with action on climate change and other major threats lagging, said Mami Mizutori, the U.N. Secretary-General’s special representative for disaster risk deduction.
“COVID-19 is but the latest proof that political and business leaders are yet to tune into the world around them,” she added in a statement.

jiiski
jiiski
12 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Aint it the truth.

Art
Art
13 days ago

CMC also senses something to form towards the 23rd of OCT we’ll see…comment image

Art
Art
13 days ago

comment image

lookoutits
lookoutits
13 days ago
Reply to  Art

better get the shields up

Art
Art
13 days ago

GFS is becoming very good at seeing storms form a long way off in time..what differs eventually is where said storm begins to track to..air currents,fornts and highs all differ over time so where it goes changes..myself im starting to believe the GFS for formation…its just me and my opinion..also..the CMC model is also becoming quite good at seeing formation also it seems

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
13 days ago
Reply to  Art

Art, different models are better at doing different things. I break it down to 4 categories. 1) Storm genesis. 2) Short term track after genesis. 3) Long term track. 4) Intensity prediction. . IMHO, GFS seems to be better at 1 and I like ICON for 2. Dr. Masters used to have blogs on model accuracy once in a while. / Keep posting the graphics. I have not been very successful copying graphics from Dr. Levi’s page. So thanks putting them up..

Art
Art
12 days ago
Reply to  Diablo Flaco

sure thing and thanks

Albin Holder
Albin Holder
12 days ago
Reply to  Art

Among the best models for hurricane genesis are: GFS, European, UKMET and HWRF.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 5:30 AM IST October 13 2020
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
===============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, The Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards with a speed of 17 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered near 16.9N 82.5E, about 120 km nearly south southwest of Vishakhapatnam, close to (within 25 km) Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 100 km nearly east northeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).

Latest observations indicate that the system crossed northern Andhra Pradesh coast close to Kakinada (near 17.0N 82.4E) between 0630 & 0730 IST, as a deep depression with maximum sustained wind speed of 30-35 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

The deep depression is being monitored by coastal Doppler Weather Radars of Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur. As per Radar imageries the rain bands lie along the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining interior Districts. Moderate convection also lies over south Odisha and Telangana.

Forecast and Intensity
===========================================
6 HRS: 17.3N 81.4E – 25 knots (Depression)
12 HRS: 17.6N 80.3E – 25 knots (Depression)
18 HRS: 17.9N 79.2E – Well Marked Low Pressure Area

The numerical weather prediction models suggest that the remnant of existing deep depression over Bay of Bengal after crossing the peninsular India would emerge into east central and adjoining northeastern Arabian sea off northern Konkan-southern Gujarat coasts as a low pressure area around morning of October 15th.

Last edited 13 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Art
Art
13 days ago

Good night all…be safe out there

Art
Art
13 days ago

comment image

Not
Not
13 days ago

Out to sea with 93

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10 – 23:30 PM IST October 12 2020
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards with a speed of 22 km/h during past 6 hours and lay centered near 16.5N 83.4E, about 130 km nearly south of Vishakhapatnam, 130 km east southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 180 km nearly east of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam, close to Kakinada during of morning of October 13th, as a deep depression with wind speed of 30-35 knots with gusts 40 knots.

The Deep Depression is being monitored by coastal Doppler Weather Radars of Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur. As per Radar imageries the rain bands lie along the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Sea areas. Moderate convection also lies over south Odisha and Telangana.

Forecast and Intensity
===========================================
6 HRS: 16.9N 82.3E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 17.2N 81.3E – 25 knots (Depression) Over land Andhra Pradesh [India]
18 HRS: 17.4N 80.7E – 25 knots (Depression)
30 HRS: 18.0N 78.5E – Well Marked Low Pressure Area

As per satellite imagery, intensity of the system is T2.0. It shows shear pattern. The clouds are sheared to the west of system centre. Further, the convective cloud mass has entered into the land indicating commencement of interaction of land with the system. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over west central Bay of Bengal, southern coastal Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

Last edited 13 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 3:00 AM JST October 13 2020
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (T2016)
==================================================
South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nangka (996 hPa) located at 17.8N 113.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 nm from the center in northern quadrant
120 nm from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 18.1N 111.1E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
24 HRS: 18.4N 108.6E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 18.7N 104.2E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

NCHurricane2009
13 days ago

My latest birdseye view chart and post on the Atlantic tropics discussing some of the tropical waves of low pressure currently lining the Atlantic ocean are at this link. Tropical wave tagged as 93L was making a run at developing further, but alas wind shear is increasing and time is running out for it to develop.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9 – 17:30 PM IST October 12 2020
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of 5 km/ph during past 6 hours and lays centred near 16.1N 84.6E, about 220 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam, 270 km east southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 310 km east-southeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to move west northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam, close to Kakinada during morning of October 13th, as a deep depression with wind speed of 25-30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

The Deep Depression is being monitored by coastal Doppler Weather Radars of Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur. As per Radar imageries the rain bands lie along the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Sea areas. Moderate convection also lies over south Odisha and Telangana.

Forecast and Intensity
===========================================
6 HRS: 16.5N 84.0E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 16.8N 82.9E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 17.4N 80.7E – 25 knots (Depression)
36 HRS: 18.0N 78.5E – Well Marked Low Pressure Area

As per satellite imagery, intensity of the system is T2.0. It shows shear pattern. The clouds are sheared to the west of system centre. Further, the convective cloud mass has entered into the land indicating commencement of interaction of land with the system. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over west central Bay of Bengal, southern coastal Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh in association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

Last edited 13 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Skyepony
13 days ago

NASA’s GEOS-5 model is a little quicker and weaker with the wave near 50W developing and coming at Florida.

1012GEOS204h.png
Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
13 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Do you have a link for the NASA GOES models?

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
13 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Thanks

Tuppy Dougherty
Tuppy Dougherty
14 days ago

Is there a magic MPH wind speed where the noise turns to sounding like a train … like the thermocline? /s/ Louisiana Resident.

Skyepony
13 days ago

25 to 31 mph the whistling noises from power lines getting played by the wind starts. The sounds have a lot to do with the objects the wind is hitting and playing on. Train noises seem to start around 70-80mph. https://www.newsday.com/business/technology/how-come-when-the-wind-whistles-1.6024637

Skyepony
13 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony
Last edited 13 days ago by Skyepony (mod)
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
14 days ago

The only thing I will say is this…If at or near hr 300 from now, and there is a Hurricane between Cuba and the Yucatan…., and you live from the Outer Banks of N.C up to and including Maine on the east coast….Pack the car Mabel and get the freak outta Dodge! It is 2020.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
14 days ago

That latest run has it more west threading the needle and just over the western tip of Cuba and east around the corner diagonally right across the heart of Florida From The Keys to JAX! Then up the coast to BOSTON, MA. And beyond to a pressure of 947 on southwest coast of Maine? A GFS fantasy storm of the year.

The GFS has it’s Scary Halloween mask run up.

Last edited 14 days ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
14 days ago

Long way off, and no other forcast model even closely agrees, but The GFS sees a monster at 953 heading to West Coast FL Via the Keys and Western Carribean entry 318 hrs out. And that big question mark from Canada to Texas, is dotted bigtime wrongly. Now, Floridians, you really did not believe you would really escape that easily Hurricaine Season 2020 did you? For once, lets hope that does not at all happen.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020101206&fh=174

Even stranger still is the Eastern seaboard storm in the GFS-Para forecast for the same 06z Monday run. What is that elongated “S” shaped rain event called besides a deluge?

Art
Art
14 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
14 days ago

LOL

Art
Art
14 days ago

good night…be safe out there

Art
Art
14 days ago

comment image

Justabitofwind
Justabitofwind
14 days ago
Reply to  Art

while 312 charts are for the most part scoffable remember when the long runs for dorian came out?

Ineluki
Ineluki
12 days ago
Reply to  Justabitofwind

I remember when Irma was supposed to slam up the Chesapeake Bay as a high end cat 3 at about 320 hours. Needless to say it didn’t happen.

Hell, less than five days out Irma was supposed to slam into the Carolinas, then it bobbed and weaved under Florida. Trying to base what a storm that hasn’t formed yet will do because of one model run of a previous storm is silly.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 – 23:30 PM IST October 11 2020
DEPRESSION BOB02-2020
=============================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, The Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards with a speed of 4 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered near 15.6N 85.2E, about 310 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam, 350 km east southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 380 km east southeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam, close to Kakinada during mid-night, October 12th.

Forecast and Intensity
===========================================
6 HRS: 15.9N 84.3E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
17 HRS: 16.2N 83.1E – 30 knots (Deep Depression)
30 HRS: 16.6N 81.5E – 25 knots (Depression)
42 HRS: 17.0N 80.1E – Well Marked Low Pressure Area

As per satellite imagery, the system has intensity T1.5 and shows shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared to the west of the system center. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection I.E. Over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal. In association with the system. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

Last edited 14 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
NCHurricane2009
14 days ago

My latest birdseye view post and chart of the Atlantic tropics at this link, highlighting an unusual (for October) trio of vigorous tropical waves that span from western Africa to the central tropical Atlantic.

Art
Art
14 days ago

yes some models are saying we get about a ten day break then the tropics heat up some again..

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
14 days ago

comment image

Dirk
Dirk
14 days ago

Thanks for this educational info Dr. Jeff. It´s true one is never to old to learn. 🙂

Art
Art
15 days ago

many days away but forms under Cuba and each run comes closer to FLcomment image

The man
The man
14 days ago
Reply to  Art

Until the front comes by and kicks it out and Saves the Day… if you noticed there’s never a front to kick it out when they’re on the west coast of Florida when they come from the East those fronts always show up you keep it away

The man
The man
14 days ago
Reply to  The man

Also one more thing if you go back to July 1st and July 5th you’ll see my prediction post where I said Central Florida will have no tropical storms or hurricanes at all this year 100% accurate

Justabitofwind
Justabitofwind
14 days ago
Reply to  The man

thats accurate almost every year.

Art
Art
15 days ago

comment image

NCHurricane2009
15 days ago

Thanks for this update Dr. Masters!

My latest birdseye view chart and post of the Atlantic tropics is up at this link. In addition to some remarks on the remnants of Delta, I take a look at some possible other areas of development in the Atlantic over the next few days. Nothing imminent or pressing though at this time.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
15 days ago

Thanks for the Saturday update, Dr. Masters!

The NOAA & AF “Hurricane Hunters” and the NHC have done an amazing job during this record setting season….they deserve a much needed vacation come December!!

PedleyCA
PedleyCA
15 days ago

Thanks for the Updates, Dr. Masters….

Art
Art
15 days ago
Reply to  PedleyCA

yes thanks for the updates Dr.Masters