95L satellite image
GeoColor satellite image of Invest 95L over the western Caribbean at 10:40 a.m. EDT Saturday, October 24, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

An area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean, designated Invest 95L, has brought widespread rainfall of one to four inches to Cuba, the Cayman Islands. and Jamaica during the 36 hours ending at noon EDT Saturday, with 3.72 inches falling at a personal weather station in Spanishtown, Jamaica.

This system was close to tropical depression status early Saturday afternoon, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Zeta by Sunday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating 95L on Saturday afternoon to determine if it has become Tropical Depression 28.

95L radar image
Figure 1. Radar image of 95L at 10:45 a.m. EDT October 24. (Image credit: National Weather Service, Cayman Islands)

Satellite imagery on Saturday showed that 95L had developed a surface circulation to the west of Grand Cayman Island, but dry air to its north was being driven into the core of the system by moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots. This wind shear was tilting 95L’s vortex and keeping the north side of the circulation devoid of heavy thunderstorms. The system was developing low-level spiral bands and good upper-level outflow to the north.

95L GEFS image
Figure 2. Track forecasts out to seven days for 95L from the 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Saturday, October 24, run of the GFS ensemble model (GEFS). The black line is the mean of the 31 ensemble members; individual ensemble member forecasts are the thin lines, color-coded by the central pressure they predict for 95L. Most ensemble members predicted a tropical depression or tropical storm would form in the northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Forecast for 95L

Steering currents are weak in the western Caribbean, and 95L is expected to drift northwest at less than 5 mph through Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will build in to the northeast of 95L by Monday, forcing it on a northwesterly track at a faster 5-10 mph pace into the Gulf of Mexico. It now appears that 95L has moved far enough west to significantly reduce the threat of a direct landfall in South Florida or the Bahamas. By Tuesday, an approaching trough of low pressure over the central U.S. should turn 95L more to the north, with a landfall along the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday the most likely outcome.

Conditions are predicted to remain favorable for development through Sunday, with wind shear a moderate 10-15 knots, sea-surface temperatures a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), and a moist atmosphere (a mid-level relative humidity of 70-75%). However, there is plenty of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico, and as 95L progresses into the Gulf, the dry air may significantly inhibit development. Sea-surface temperatures will be cooler to the north in the Gulf as 95L proceeds, and wind shear will rise, further challenging development of 95L.

There was modest support for development of 95L from the Saturday morning runs of the GFS and European models and their ensembles, showing that 95L would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm on Monday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean. A few ensemble members of both models predicted that 95L could become a hurricane in the Gulf, though most considered a tropical storm as the likely outcome.

In either case, heavy rains of 2-5 inches from this system will affect Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, and Jamaica through Monday. In a 2 p.m. EDT Saturday tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 95L two-day and five-day odds of development of near 100%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is the sixth letter in the Greek alphabet, Zeta.

Epsilon satellite image
Figure 3. GeoColor satellite image of Hurricane Epsilon at 10:10 a.m. EDT Saturday, October 24, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Hurricane Epsilon recurving out to sea

Hurricane Epsilon was steaming northeast at 13 mph at 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, and was maintaining hurricane status, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 958 mb. Epsilon is a large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extended up to 405 miles to the north of the center. The large wind field was generating large swells, which will be affecting the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the north-facing shores of the Caribbean islands through this weekend.

Epsilon was riding up a warm tongue of water associated with the Gulf Stream on Saturday morning, but will be moving north of the Gulf Stream on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, Epsilon will be over waters of just 21 degrees Celsius (70°F), when it may pass close and bring rains of 1-2 inches and wind gusts near tropical storm-force to the southeastern portion of Newfoundland, Canada.

Delta is record-setting 10th named storm to make U.S. landfall in a season

Epsilon will merge with a trough of low pressure to its north on Sunday and transition to a very powerful extratropical storm with winds near hurricane force. Its central pressure on Tuesday, October 27, when it will be a few hundred miles south of Iceland, could be between 936-946 mb, according to the 0Z Saturday runs of the GFS and European models.

Editor’s note: this post was updated at 2 p.m. EDT Saturday with the latest Tropical Weather Outlook info from NHC.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on October 24, 2020 (12:53pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
45 Comments
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KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h=465

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h=433

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h=318

Dirk
Dirk
1 month ago

Thanks Dr. Jeff for the update, next wil be éta if it comes that far .

Art
Art
1 month ago

lets hope Zeta stays put for a few days………comment image?1603640039

Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
1 month ago

is it just me or does zeta seem like its moving more south than north?

Art
Art
1 month ago

local weather guys think Zeta will become a cat-1 hurricane in the gulf

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
1 month ago

Update

120104_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Bahahurican
Bahahurican
1 month ago

Good morning all … an aggressive line of showers headed north over the Bahamas this morning. Woke me right up out of a righteous sleep … lol ….
This looks like the same line of thunderstorms that was south of Cuba before I went to sleep last night.

Screenshot_2020-10-25 Bahamas Radar Composite.png
Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Bahahurican

yes NHC has been warning for so Fla and the bahamas for several days now..hope not too bad for you all there

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

you see..difference between runs?..watch out for track changes next few days.comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by Art
Amature Met
Amature Met
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

guess thats 200 miles difference. Not bad at 4 or 5 days. Do you by chance know what Louisianans did this year to piss Mother nature off?

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Amature Met

whew yeah this season has been hard on them for sure.

Art
Art
1 month ago

well this early sunday morning..it seems all the models place TS Zeta up in the northern Gulf coast wednesday with most of the rain blown eastward..hopefully it will blow some rain towards west central FLA..been kinda warm and dry here lately…..well IF you have to prepare, do so huh..im watching for any changes bringing it here by my area but so far it doesnt look that way…good luck to those affected ok..

Last edited 1 month ago by Art
Amature Met
Amature Met
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

We are very wet here in NE F. A big blow would bring down many trees. I saw one that was leaning just slowly fall over on the nebhiers house. No real damage. Took 15 minutes to come down. just gently laid down. Now if we had 40 mph winds……..

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Amature Met

well since the rains are being blown eastward from the storm..we just might get alot of rain in florida depending on the eventual track huh

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 15:00 PM JST October 25 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T2018)
=============================================
near Catanduanes province area (Luzon/Philippines)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Molave (990 hPa) located at 13.4N 124.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
30 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 13.3N 122.2E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) near Marindugue province area (Luzon/Philippines)
24 HRS: 13.4N 119.7E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 14.0N 114.3E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.2N 109.4E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 TWENTYEIG  10/25/20  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    5.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.66           5.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   10.6     30.1  to    2.3        0.70           2.2
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :  100.8      0.0  to  151.8        0.66           2.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   23.3     36.6  to    2.8        0.39           1.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   30.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.20           0.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    1.2      2.9  to   -2.9        0.29           0.6
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  106.0    895.4  to  -55.0        0.83           1.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  117.1     27.5  to  139.6        0.80           0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   56.6    -29.7  to  185.9        0.40           0.2
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0    100.0  to    0.0        1.00           0.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  15% is   3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  35% is   6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     7.1%   21.1%   15.0%   11.1%   10.4%   12.3%   14.7%   35.1%
    Logistic:     5.7%   22.0%   15.9%    8.5%    1.6%    6.5%   10.5%   13.3%
    Bayesian:     1.5%    1.8%    1.3%    0.9%    0.4%    0.5%    2.4%    0.3%
   Consensus:     4.7%   14.9%   10.8%    6.8%    4.1%    6.4%    9.2%   16.2%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.0%
KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

028
TCFW
029L/TS/Z/CX
comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49 – 9:00 AM JST October 25 2020
TROPICAL STORM SAUDEL (T2017)
=============================================
South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Saudel (992 hPa) located at 17.5N 108.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=====================
150 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 17.7N 107.2E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
24 HRS: 18.2N 105.5E – Tropical Depression Over land Vietnam

——————————————————————————-

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 9:00 AM JST October 25 2020
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T2018)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (994 hPa) located at 13.5N 126.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 13.6N 123.9E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Camarines Sur province area (Luzon/Philippines)
24 HRS: 13.4N 121.3E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Oriental Mindoro province area (Luzon/Philippines)
48 HRS: 13.8N 115.9E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.4N 110.9E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

Art
Art
1 month ago

Good Night…be safe and alert out there

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

AKi Aya
AKi Aya
1 month ago

Thank you as always for the update Dr. Masters. Many of us here in Aruba follow you….”you the man”!
Happy weekend

jeffs713
jeffs713
1 month ago

Anyone know what Louisiana did to Mother Nature this year? She sure seems to have it out for them this year.

jiiski
jiiski
1 month ago
Reply to  jeffs713

I don’t see the ethics of blaming just Louisiana, though it definitely contributes to climate change.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47 – 3:00 AM JST October 25 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAUDEL (T2017)
=============================================
South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saudel (990 hPa) located at 17.6N 110.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=====================
150 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 17.8N 106.8E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 17.9N 103.9E – Tropical Depression Over land Thailand

——————————————————————————

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 3:00 AM JST October 25 2020
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T2018)
=============================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (1000 hPa) located at 13.4N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 nm from the center in northeastern quadrnat
90 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 13.8N 125.2E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East of the Philippines
24 HRS: 13.7N 122.5E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Quezon province area (Luzon/Philippines)
48 HRS: 13.7N 117.4E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.2N 111.8E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Amature Met
Amature Met
1 month ago

Thank you for the post. I am sure the gulf coast is watching this closely.

NotSparta
NotSparta
1 month ago

Thanks for the new post, Doc! Nice and concise synopsis

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

thanks for update doc

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h=465

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

comment image?w=600&h=385 SHARPIEGATE PRODUCTION
always follow NHC for all storm information

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
1 month ago

028
POSS TCFA
95L/INV/XX/XXcomment image?w=600&h=348

Dee Cook
Dee Cook
1 month ago

Never mind. I found it.

Dee Cook
Dee Cook
1 month ago

Thank you for this post Dr Masters. The Gulf Coast needs a break!
does anyone have the WU discus link to commentary? I lost it again.
Thank you

Karen
Karen
1 month ago

Yeah, please keep Epsilon *many* hundred kilometers south of Iceland, thank you. 😉

Sincerely,
Iceland

(That said, intense extratropical cyclones are a normal occurence here, and even just on this “ordinary” fall day, in sheltered Reykjavík, we currently have 20mph sustained winds / 35mph gusts… Höfn is currently at 45mph sustained / 65mph gusts… Vestmannaeyjar a couple days ago was up to 72mph sustained / 89mph gusts… not at all unusual here)

Last edited 1 month ago by Karen
Handy
1 month ago
Reply to  Karen

Hi. Nice to see a fellow Icelander posting here. Are you formally from the US?

Karen
Karen
1 month ago
Reply to  Handy

Yeah, originally. Icelandic citizen, though. Still have family in the US on the gulf coast, so I keep up with the tropics.

Maura
Maura
1 month ago

Your reports are fascinating. I’m not a meteorologist, but can follow the descriptions and always learn lots.

Mikesurvivor
Mikesurvivor
1 month ago

Hope 95L don’t develop much, if at all. We’ve had our share of storms along the Gulf Coast this year. Thanks for the update Dr. Jeff.

Patrap
1 month ago

One more lads…

Hooper…!

Rig for storm’

Quint.jpg
Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
1 month ago

Thanks for the new blog thread!