Beta satellite image
Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta at 1600Z (noon EDT) Thursday, September 24, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

A frenzied September for tropical activity across the Atlantic should draw to a close on a more tranquil note. The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy at 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday, September 23, as Teddy made its way between Newfoundland and Labrador en route to the Labrador Sea.

In its tropical weather outlook on Thursday morning, September 24, NHC anticipated that no new tropical cyclones would form in the Atlantic through at least September 29.

Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum in central Nova Scotia around 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday as a post-tropical cyclone, with top sustained winds of 65 mph and a central pressure of 964 mb. The storm had weakened sharply from its Category 2 hurricane status a day earlier. The result was a sprawling but not-too-intense storm that packed tropical storm-force sustained winds (at least 39 mph) that extended out 400 miles from the center.

Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy moving across easternmost Nova Scotia on Wednesday, September 23. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Atlantic Canada has experienced a number of Category 1 hurricanes and also four Category 2 storms (most recently Juan in 2003), so Teddy was low-impact by those standards. CBC reported that winds gusted to 82 mph at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia, and 5.16 inches of rain fell at Ingonish Beach. About 16,000 customers of Nova Scotia Power lost service during the storm.

Impacts in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday night were also on the modest side, reported the Telegram. Winds gusted to 46 mph at St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Beta’s rains continue

Well inland and now not a tropical system, Beta is no longer being tracked by NHC, but Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta is continuing to dump rain as it slogs its way across the southern U.S. Fortunately, Beta failed to produce the massive rainfall amounts that might otherwise have accompanied a slow-moving tropical storm moving up the Texas coast. “It could have been much worse,” noted Eric Berger of Space City Weather. The saving graces were wind shear that helped keep Beta from intensifying rapidly and extensive dry air at mid-levels that cut down on rainfall efficiency.

Rainfall amounts, in inches, for the seven-day period ending at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, September 24. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS)

Beta’s heaviest rains during and shortly after landfall were concentrated over southwestern parts of the Houston metro area. Rainfall totals for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday morning, as reported by the CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network, included 10.88 inches near Friendswood and 10.26 inches near Pearland. Rainfall rates were not especially intense, which cut down on the flooding threat, although several bayous in the south Houston area overtopped their banks.

As Beta continued its slow northeastward trek, several packets of 4-6 inch rains developed over parts of southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. As of Thursday morning, top 24-hour CoCoRaHS totals included 6.91 inches just east of Natchez, Mississippi, and 5.98 inches near Vaiden, Mississippi. Totals were around 5 inches in the Jackson area, where some street flooding was reported in Canton.

Hurricane season isn’t over yet

Our welcome break from intense tropical activity in the Atlantic doesn’t mean we are home free from the 2020 season. The hyperactive 2005 season – the only one that’s been more active than the 2020 season – took several days of rest near the end of that September before resuming in earnest in early October. That season ended up producing 10 more named storms after October 1.

Longer-range signals from the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that a lull of two or three weeks is possible in the Atlantic, according to Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company. He stressed: “Hurricane season is not over, folks.”

Also see: Why the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has spun out of control

With the start of October, upper-level winds typically increase, and that tends to push the key U.S. threat areas east toward Florida and the Caribbean. As noted by weather.com, Florida is the state most likely to see an October landfall. It’s also rare but possible for tropical or post-tropical systems to sweep well up the East Coast in October, even late in the month, as occurred in 2012 with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.

The next storm on the Atlantic list is Gamma – a fittingly sci-fi-sounding name for this truth-is-stranger-than-fiction hurricane season.

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Posted on September 24, 2020 (4:00pm EDT).

Bob Henson

Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance...

137 replies on “With Teddy and Beta no longer threats, Atlantic hurricane season takes a break”

  1. It’s too bad so few know who have their best interests. It’s a verifiable kind of thing. Scientists will never get a foothold against AGW/Global Warming without removing the forces that work polarly against those efforts. It’s not a Politcal Party Issue. It’s a Systemic Issue of nefarious control of both. Maybe Yale will open the door to end this enstranglement of the world. What say you Yale?

    1. “Maybe Yale will open the door to end this enstranglement of the world.”

      I think you might be overestimating YCC’s influence just a bit…

  2. Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21 – 3:00 AM JST September 29 2020
    SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
    ================================================
    Sea East of Japan

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (985 hPa) located at 30.6N 153.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 14 knots.

    Storm Force Winds
    ===================
    50 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
    30 nm from the center in western quadrant

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
    150 nm from the center in western quadrant

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 34.5N 154.7E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
    24 HRS: 38.1N 157.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
    48 HRS: 41.5N 167.4E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

  3. From Wikpedia:

    More storms hit Florida than any other U.S. state,[1] and since 1851 only eighteen hurricane seasons passed without a known storm impacting the state. Collectively, cyclones that hit the region have resulted in over 10,000 deaths, most of which occurring prior to the start of hurricane hunter flights in 1943. Additionally, the cumulative impact from the storms totaled over US$216.1 billion in damage (2018 dollars), primarily from Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Michael in the 1992, 2017, and 2018 seasons respectively. . . .

    Tropical cyclones have affected Florida in every month of the year with the exceptions of January and March. Nearly one-third of the cyclones affected the state in September, and nearly three-fourths of the storms affected the state between August and October, which coincides with the peak of the hurricane season. Portions of the coastline have return periods, or expected time between hurricane strikes of a certain intensity or category within 86 mi (139 km) of a given location, that are the lowest in the country. Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States.[2]

  4. Here’s a suggestion: Either rein in your language and show some respect for Dr. Masters, his blog, and the rest of us, or go elsewhere.

  5. My latest birdseye view post and chart for the Atlantic tropics up at this link. Post contains a discussion about the increasingly likely western Caribbean tropical development over the next few days, and also mentions a couple of other areas to watch for as well. Also have some notes about the latest goings-on with the stubborn remnant low pressure of Paulette, a meteorological curiosity but not expected to come back again as a “zombie” tropical cyclone.

  6. The latest gfs is scary.. I have been watching it ever day for the past few weeks.. it changes every run so I know not to panic. However when it starts to consistently look like there will be trouble at some point I cant help but pay attention to the possible solutions.

  7. Now that NHC has marked the development of a low off the Yucatan on the 5 day forecast. I would expect Florida will start going crazy. Maybe it is time for a new blog / article with some analysis on why the models are having such divergence on the 5 to 10 day forecast.

    I am now moving from Hurricane level 1 to 2 here in SE Florida.

    1. Why would Florida “go crazy?”
      NHC indicates the low pressure system is unlikely to get anywhere near Florida and only has a 30% chance of any development over the next 5 days.

    2. I’m watching this very closely, I’m having Wilma flashbacks. Since this hurricane season has been so weird I’m not discounting anything. Wilma was down played here on the SE, and the backside of that storm really packed a punch the only good thing that came from that storm was a serious cold front followed it made living without power very comfortable.

  8. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT…
    Expect widespread showers and lightning storms are forecast to
    develop this afternoon across east central Florida today. The storms
    will move toward northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Frequent cloud to ground
    lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, and torrential
    downpours are likely across many areas today. Move indoors to safety
    at the first sign of threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

    .FLOOD IMPACT…
    Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible in some of
    today`s storms, especially across Volusia and Brevard Counties.
    This will likely produce temporary flooding of roads, urban and
    other poorly drained low lying areas, Never drive into an area
    where water covers the road. The water depth may be too great to
    allow your vehicle to pass through safely.

    .RIP CURRENT IMPACT…
    A Moderate Risk for dangerous rip currents continues today at the
    central Florida Atlantic beaches. While rip currents will be present
    all day, the threat will be highest from 930 AM through 330 PM due
    to tidal effects. To reduce your chances of being caught in the
    seaward pull of a rip current, swim only near a lifeguard and never
    swim alone, while following social distancing guidelines.

    .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT…
    Wind gusts up to around 35 knots will be possible on inland lakes
    as well as the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters. Storms
    will move northeast at 10 to 15 mph, so boaters should watch for
    storms approaching from the southwest, and seek safe harbor before
    they arrive.

    .RIVER FLOOD IMPACT…
    Heavy rain on Sunday has pushed the Saint Johns River at Astor back
    into Moderate Flood Stage. The river is forecast to remain in
    Moderate Flood through mid week, possibly falling back into Minor
    Flood Stage by late week or this weekend. The Saint Johns River near
    Deland, Sanford, and above Lake Harney is forecast to remain within
    Action Stage through the week.

    Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest
    river levels and forecasts.

  9. Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 9:00 AM JST September 28 2020
    TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
    ================================================
    260 km North of Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (994 hPa) located at 26.6N 153.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 23 knots.

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
    150 nm from the center in western quadrant

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.0-

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 29.0N 152.8E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) sea near Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)
    24 HRS: 32.6N 153.5E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea east of Japan
    48 HRS: 39.7N 159.2E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

  10. Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 3:00 AM JST September 28 2020
    TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
    ================================================
    150 km East Northeast Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (998 hPa) located at 25.0N 155.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 20 knots.

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    250 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
    100 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 27.8N 153.5E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 390 km north of Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)
    24 HRS: 31.0N 153.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea east of Japan
    48 HRS: 38.3N 158.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
    72 HRS: 41.7N 167.8E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

  11. I bookmarked the Disqus page for comments on Eye of the Storm site, but today all I’ve been able to get is a 2 month old post by Dr. Jeff. Anyone else have this problem?

  12. Morning everyone……CONUS animated water vapor image…..first of 2 cold fronts this week dipping down over the central US today…..surface trough stretched down into the GOM….

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