Beta satellite image
Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta at 1600Z (noon EDT) Thursday, September 24, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

A frenzied September for tropical activity across the Atlantic should draw to a close on a more tranquil note. The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy at 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday, September 23, as Teddy made its way between Newfoundland and Labrador en route to the Labrador Sea.

In its tropical weather outlook on Thursday morning, September 24, NHC anticipated that no new tropical cyclones would form in the Atlantic through at least September 29.

Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum in central Nova Scotia around 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday as a post-tropical cyclone, with top sustained winds of 65 mph and a central pressure of 964 mb. The storm had weakened sharply from its Category 2 hurricane status a day earlier. The result was a sprawling but not-too-intense storm that packed tropical storm-force sustained winds (at least 39 mph) that extended out 400 miles from the center.

Teddy satellite image
Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy moving across easternmost Nova Scotia on Wednesday, September 23. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Atlantic Canada has experienced a number of Category 1 hurricanes and also four Category 2 storms (most recently Juan in 2003), so Teddy was low-impact by those standards. CBC reported that winds gusted to 82 mph at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia, and 5.16 inches of rain fell at Ingonish Beach. About 16,000 customers of Nova Scotia Power lost service during the storm.

Impacts in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday night were also on the modest side, reported the Telegram. Winds gusted to 46 mph at St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Beta’s rains continue

Well inland and now not a tropical system, Beta is no longer being tracked by NHC, but Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta is continuing to dump rain as it slogs its way across the southern U.S. Fortunately, Beta failed to produce the massive rainfall amounts that might otherwise have accompanied a slow-moving tropical storm moving up the Texas coast. “It could have been much worse,” noted Eric Berger of Space City Weather. The saving graces were wind shear that helped keep Beta from intensifying rapidly and extensive dry air at mid-levels that cut down on rainfall efficiency.

Rainfall image
Rainfall amounts, in inches, for the seven-day period ending at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, September 24. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS)

Beta’s heaviest rains during and shortly after landfall were concentrated over southwestern parts of the Houston metro area. Rainfall totals for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday morning, as reported by the CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network, included 10.88 inches near Friendswood and 10.26 inches near Pearland. Rainfall rates were not especially intense, which cut down on the flooding threat, although several bayous in the south Houston area overtopped their banks.

As Beta continued its slow northeastward trek, several packets of 4-6 inch rains developed over parts of southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. As of Thursday morning, top 24-hour CoCoRaHS totals included 6.91 inches just east of Natchez, Mississippi, and 5.98 inches near Vaiden, Mississippi. Totals were around 5 inches in the Jackson area, where some street flooding was reported in Canton.

Hurricane season isn’t over yet

Our welcome break from intense tropical activity in the Atlantic doesn’t mean we are home free from the 2020 season. The hyperactive 2005 season – the only one that’s been more active than the 2020 season – took several days of rest near the end of that September before resuming in earnest in early October. That season ended up producing 10 more named storms after October 1.

Longer-range signals from the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that a lull of two or three weeks is possible in the Atlantic, according to Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company. He stressed: “Hurricane season is not over, folks.”

Why the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has spun out of control

With the start of October, upper-level winds typically increase, and that tends to push the key U.S. threat areas east toward Florida and the Caribbean. As noted by weather.com, Florida is the state most likely to see an October landfall. It’s also rare but possible for tropical or post-tropical systems to sweep well up the East Coast in October, even late in the month, as occurred in 2012 with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.

The next storm on the Atlantic list is Gamma – a fittingly sci-fi-sounding name for this truth-is-stranger-than-fiction hurricane season.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 24, 2020 (4:00pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
137 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Art
Art
29 days ago

comment image

NCHurricane2009
1 month ago

My latest birdseye view chart and post of the Atlantic tropics is up at this link, update on the possible western Caribbean tropical development in the coming days, with mentions of two other possible areas of interest that could emerge as well (one in the eastern or central Caribbean, another in the eastern tropical Atlantic).

Colorado Bob
Colorado Bob
1 month ago

MICHAEL E. MANN
ON 9/28/20 AT 11:01 AM EDT
News | OpinionThe Oceans Appear to Be Stabilizing. Here’s Why it’s Very Bad

This seemingly technical finding has profound and troubling implications. The more stable the upper ocean, the less vertical mixing that takes place. This mixing is a primary means by which the ocean buries warming surface waters. So the surface warms up even faster. It’s what we call a “positive feedback”—a vicious cycle.

That’s bad for a number of reasons. As we currently watch the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record play out, a key underlying factor is the anomalous surface warmth of the tropical Atlantic. The increasingly intense and damaging hurricanes we’ve seen in recent years have fed off warmer surface waters. More stably stratified waters tend to inhibit the wind-driven mixing up of cold deeper waters that often serves as a sort of release-valve, shutting off the source of energy at the surface that intensifies these storms. A more stably stratified ocean potentially favors more intense, destructive hurricanes.

https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-oceans-stabilizing-1534512

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Crazy Dayz

crazy days.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

faster n faster!

Art
Art
1 month ago

well thats it for me..be safe out there

Art
Art
1 month ago

Doc a question please..is there no chance for bringing back the states weather blogs?

Art
Art
1 month ago
FLC101-300230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0016.200929T1415Z-200930T0600Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.200928T0645Z.200928T1615Z.200930T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Cypress Creek At SR 54 Worthington Gardens.
* From this morning to late tonight.
* At 9:00 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
  at 9:00 AM EDT Tuesday was 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
  evening and continue falling to 6.9 feet Friday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet, Flooding begins at the recreation area on
  State Road 54.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.1
  feet on 05/29/1976.

&&


                  Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Cypress Creek
SR 54 Worthington 8.0   8.0   Tue 9 am  7.8   7.3   6.9   6.9   6.8
Navin Singh
1 month ago

I suspect the line of storms over the GOM and cluster of storms over the BOC will cross the yucatan and get into the western caribbean, this will interact with a tropical wave in the central caribbean currently and the interaction will create cyclonic flow, forming our tropical cyclone. A longwave trough resides over the eastern US and an impulse on Friday will move into the SE and pull some moisture from the system north, but it will still be consolidating in the NW Caribbean. A secondary trough arrives Sunday into the SE US and pulls at the very least lots of moisture from this potential storm across South and perhaps Central Florida and Cuba. An alternative scenario is whatever is down there stays weak and lingers for about a week around the NW Caribbean/Yucatan before a subsequent trough late next week pulls it into the SE GOM. We will see, but given how low shear is and the upper level anticyclone setting up over the NW Caribbean, I believe formation will happen more quickly, with heavy rain and a possible tropical cyclone crossing Florida early next week.

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Navin Singh

yes time to be alert and safe thanks for this

Navin Singh
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Thank you art! Stay safe! Im in st pete!

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Robert
Robert
1 month ago

The hype continues this season for East Coast Central Florida…. what is this the eighth or ninth time we’re going to get pounded here in East Coast Central Florida and nothing happens so this time around I’ll be sunny and hot as usual so stop all the nonsense hype Florida’s not getting anything

Art
Art
1 month ago

Both GFS and CMC are putting a storm in the gulf of mexico next week, time to be staying alert once again

Robert
Robert
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Stop this nonsense already East Coast Florida will get nothing as usual

Art
Art
1 month ago

give it a break and stop telling others what to post and not to post in here

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

You can’t see I’ve only been talking about Terry previous days dude? Come on Art, your lack of sincerity is showing.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Haters hate they don’t debate. The saddest part is most people never seek. Perhaps you’ve just not been paying close enough attention Art. I’ll log for a long time again. I share to edify. I do not care what those who attack me with absolutely no sincerity think. Seek then speak. Always a good plan.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wyatt Washburn
Richard W butler
Richard W butler
1 month ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Seek then speak. Always a good plan. This got you a +

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

News Flash: In a Nation perfectly divided 50/50, living fully different realities depending on which Main Stream Media people poision themselves with, National and World debt insolvent, AGW/Global Warming turned on high ignored on the back burner, lies the going rate; THE PLAN IS NOT TO FIX THIS. Quite the opposite. World approaching 300 trillion in debt now as well. To whom should be the question. I know. How and why did it happen? I know. I can tell you all also, those who have subjected the world so by my estimates, have roughly 750 trillion stolen from Humanity. I can tell you where it’s at, who’s got it, and how they got it. We could fix the wrongs not just here with that kinda scratch. People would have to care for the truth for that to happen. I’m sure trying, but the trend is ever faster in the wrong direction. You can’t want to fight AGW while ignoring the truths that make it so, as things are now, we’ll never win that fight. The enemies of Humanity are by nature DESTROYERS. I’m ever hopeful. I think we can win this fight.

Athena
Athena
1 month ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Interesting series on PBS.. Hacking Your Mind. Especially this episode: Us vs Them. It is definitely worth the time to watch it. Minds will NOT be changed.

https://www.pbs.org/video/us-vs-them-2t0c0s/

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago
Reply to  Athena

What I battle every day Athena. From both sides. Breaks my heart. In a matrix of alternative realities, both planted not for the people’s sake. Many know it, but to speak it? That is to be attacked on a visceral level that is very dangerous for our Nation. No Programming out there to break the Us vs Them. Just evermore so sadly.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Morning everyone…..the northern CA wildfires are definitely noticeable (black dots) on the IR…..no relief in sight either with high pressure building out west…..

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 – 9:00 AM JST September 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
================================================
Sea East of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (980 hPa) located at 32.4N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
30 nm from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 36.3N 156.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
24 HRS: 39.7N 160.4E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

Art
Art
1 month ago

well good night…be safe out there

Art
Art
1 month ago

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE…
A few showers persist over the interior…with an area of showers
and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Florida associated with
an outflow boundary pushing west toward the coast. Shower
activity will end over the next couple of hours with skies
becoming partly cloudy to high broken cloudiness overnight.
Southwest boundary layer flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
ahead of a cold front combined with a fairly saturated
conditionally unstable atmosphere will allow scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters
after midnight which will begin to advect locally onshore late
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The cold front will push
across the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday night with a
potential band of showers/thunderstorms, with a few strong storms
possible mainly across the northern nature coast…but could
extend as far south as the Tampa Bay area.

&&

Art
Art
1 month ago

its been a Long time since we have had 60’s in the morning huh..comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

well might be an interesting rain event here next couple of days..comment image

bagel
bagel
1 month ago

[edit: hateful comment was deleted, so I don’t have to react to it anymore!]

Last edited 1 month ago by bagel
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

It’s too bad so few know who have their best interests. It’s a verifiable kind of thing. Scientists will never get a foothold against AGW/Global Warming without removing the forces that work polarly against those efforts. It’s not a Politcal Party Issue. It’s a Systemic Issue of nefarious control of both. Maybe Yale will open the door to end this enstranglement of the world. What say you Yale?

T B
T B
1 month ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

“Maybe Yale will open the door to end this enstranglement of the world.”

I think you might be overestimating YCC’s influence just a bit…

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21 – 3:00 AM JST September 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
================================================
Sea East of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (985 hPa) located at 30.6N 153.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
30 nm from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 34.5N 154.7E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
24 HRS: 38.1N 157.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
48 HRS: 41.5N 167.4E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

eric
eric
1 month ago

Can someone give me the weatherunderground blog plz

Cervantes
1 month ago

From Wikpedia:

More storms hit Florida than any other U.S. state,[1] and since 1851 only eighteen hurricane seasons passed without a known storm impacting the state. Collectively, cyclones that hit the region have resulted in over 10,000 deaths, most of which occurring prior to the start of hurricane hunter flights in 1943. Additionally, the cumulative impact from the storms totaled over US$216.1 billion in damage (2018 dollars), primarily from Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Michael in the 1992, 2017, and 2018 seasons respectively. . . .

Tropical cyclones have affected Florida in every month of the year with the exceptions of January and March. Nearly one-third of the cyclones affected the state in September, and nearly three-fourths of the storms affected the state between August and October, which coincides with the peak of the hurricane season. Portions of the coastline have return periods, or expected time between hurricane strikes of a certain intensity or category within 86 mi (139 km) of a given location, that are the lowest in the country. Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States.[2]

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

climate change is real folks!

hmm.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

1b

sd.png
Deano
Deano
1 month ago

Trumputin counts on you.

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

thx Art!

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
1 month ago

Here’s a suggestion: Either rein in your language and show some respect for Dr. Masters, his blog, and the rest of us, or go elsewhere.

NCHurricane2009
1 month ago

My latest birdseye view post and chart for the Atlantic tropics up at this link. Post contains a discussion about the increasingly likely western Caribbean tropical development over the next few days, and also mentions a couple of other areas to watch for as well. Also have some notes about the latest goings-on with the stubborn remnant low pressure of Paulette, a meteorological curiosity but not expected to come back again as a “zombie” tropical cyclone.

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Here come the storms!

storms.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

wait and see . water world pon a comin!

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Morning everyone….TCFP…..next 48 hours…..

comment image

TopOfTheLakeFL
TopOfTheLakeFL
1 month ago

The latest gfs is scary.. I have been watching it ever day for the past few weeks.. it changes every run so I know not to panic. However when it starts to consistently look like there will be trouble at some point I cant help but pay attention to the possible solutions.

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  TopOfTheLakeFL

yes its best we stay prepared and alert till season ends officially

TopOfTheLakeFL
TopOfTheLakeFL
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Exactly

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
1 month ago

Now that NHC has marked the development of a low off the Yucatan on the 5 day forecast. I would expect Florida will start going crazy. Maybe it is time for a new blog / article with some analysis on why the models are having such divergence on the 5 to 10 day forecast.

I am now moving from Hurricane level 1 to 2 here in SE Florida.

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
1 month ago
Reply to  Diablo Flaco

Why would Florida “go crazy?”
NHC indicates the low pressure system is unlikely to get anywhere near Florida and only has a 30% chance of any development over the next 5 days.

Florida Birdy
Florida Birdy
1 month ago
Reply to  Diablo Flaco

I’m watching this very closely, I’m having Wilma flashbacks. Since this hurricane season has been so weird I’m not discounting anything. Wilma was down played here on the SE, and the backside of that storm really packed a punch the only good thing that came from that storm was a serious cold front followed it made living without power very comfortable.

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT…
Expect widespread showers and lightning storms are forecast to
develop this afternoon across east central Florida today. The storms
will move toward northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, and torrential
downpours are likely across many areas today. Move indoors to safety
at the first sign of threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT…
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible in some of
today`s storms, especially across Volusia and Brevard Counties.
This will likely produce temporary flooding of roads, urban and
other poorly drained low lying areas, Never drive into an area
where water covers the road. The water depth may be too great to
allow your vehicle to pass through safely.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT…
A Moderate Risk for dangerous rip currents continues today at the
central Florida Atlantic beaches. While rip currents will be present
all day, the threat will be highest from 930 AM through 330 PM due
to tidal effects. To reduce your chances of being caught in the
seaward pull of a rip current, swim only near a lifeguard and never
swim alone, while following social distancing guidelines.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT…
Wind gusts up to around 35 knots will be possible on inland lakes
as well as the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters. Storms
will move northeast at 10 to 15 mph, so boaters should watch for
storms approaching from the southwest, and seek safe harbor before
they arrive.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT…
Heavy rain on Sunday has pushed the Saint Johns River at Astor back
into Moderate Flood Stage. The river is forecast to remain in
Moderate Flood through mid week, possibly falling back into Minor
Flood Stage by late week or this weekend. The Saint Johns River near
Deland, Sanford, and above Lake Harney is forecast to remain within
Action Stage through the week.

Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest
river levels and forecasts.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 9:00 AM JST September 28 2020
TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
================================================
260 km North of Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (994 hPa) located at 26.6N 153.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 23 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 29.0N 152.8E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) sea near Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)
24 HRS: 32.6N 153.5E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea east of Japan
48 HRS: 39.7N 159.2E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 3:00 AM JST September 28 2020
TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
================================================
150 km East Northeast Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Kujira (998 hPa) located at 25.0N 155.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
250 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 27.8N 153.5E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 390 km north of Minami Tori-shima (Ogasawara subprefecture)
24 HRS: 31.0N 153.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea east of Japan
48 HRS: 38.3N 158.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
72 HRS: 41.7N 167.8E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

greiner3
greiner3
1 month ago

I bookmarked the Disqus page for comments on Eye of the Storm site, but today all I’ve been able to get is a 2 month old post by Dr. Jeff. Anyone else have this problem?

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Morning everyone……CONUS animated water vapor image…..first of 2 cold fronts this week dipping down over the central US today…..surface trough stretched down into the GOM….

G16_conus_band09_12fr_20200927-1326.gif