Beta satellite image
Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta at 1600Z (noon EDT) Thursday, September 24, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

A frenzied September for tropical activity across the Atlantic should draw to a close on a more tranquil note. The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy at 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday, September 23, as Teddy made its way between Newfoundland and Labrador en route to the Labrador Sea.

In its tropical weather outlook on Thursday morning, September 24, NHC anticipated that no new tropical cyclones would form in the Atlantic through at least September 29.

Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum in central Nova Scotia around 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday as a post-tropical cyclone, with top sustained winds of 65 mph and a central pressure of 964 mb. The storm had weakened sharply from its Category 2 hurricane status a day earlier. The result was a sprawling but not-too-intense storm that packed tropical storm-force sustained winds (at least 39 mph) that extended out 400 miles from the center.

Visible satellite image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy moving across easternmost Nova Scotia on Wednesday, September 23. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Atlantic Canada has experienced a number of Category 1 hurricanes and also four Category 2 storms (most recently Juan in 2003), so Teddy was low-impact by those standards. CBC reported that winds gusted to 82 mph at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia, and 5.16 inches of rain fell at Ingonish Beach. About 16,000 customers of Nova Scotia Power lost service during the storm.

Impacts in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday night were also on the modest side, reported the Telegram. Winds gusted to 46 mph at St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Beta’s rains continue

Well inland and now not a tropical system, Beta is no longer being tracked by NHC, but Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta is continuing to dump rain as it slogs its way across the southern U.S. Fortunately, Beta failed to produce the massive rainfall amounts that might otherwise have accompanied a slow-moving tropical storm moving up the Texas coast. “It could have been much worse,” noted Eric Berger of Space City Weather. The saving graces were wind shear that helped keep Beta from intensifying rapidly and extensive dry air at mid-levels that cut down on rainfall efficiency.

Rainfall amounts, in inches, for the seven-day period ending at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, September 24. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS)

Beta’s heaviest rains during and shortly after landfall were concentrated over southwestern parts of the Houston metro area. Rainfall totals for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday morning, as reported by the CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network, included 10.88 inches near Friendswood and 10.26 inches near Pearland. Rainfall rates were not especially intense, which cut down on the flooding threat, although several bayous in the south Houston area overtopped their banks.

As Beta continued its slow northeastward trek, several packets of 4-6 inch rains developed over parts of southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. As of Thursday morning, top 24-hour CoCoRaHS totals included 6.91 inches just east of Natchez, Mississippi, and 5.98 inches near Vaiden, Mississippi. Totals were around 5 inches in the Jackson area, where some street flooding was reported in Canton.

Hurricane season isn’t over yet

Our welcome break from intense tropical activity in the Atlantic doesn’t mean we are home free from the 2020 season. The hyperactive 2005 season – the only one that’s been more active than the 2020 season – took several days of rest near the end of that September before resuming in earnest in early October. That season ended up producing 10 more named storms after October 1.

Longer-range signals from the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that a lull of two or three weeks is possible in the Atlantic, according to Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company. He stressed: “Hurricane season is not over, folks.”

Also see: Why the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has spun out of control

With the start of October, upper-level winds typically increase, and that tends to push the key U.S. threat areas east toward Florida and the Caribbean. As noted by weather.com, Florida is the state most likely to see an October landfall. It’s also rare but possible for tropical or post-tropical systems to sweep well up the East Coast in October, even late in the month, as occurred in 2012 with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.

The next storm on the Atlantic list is Gamma – a fittingly sci-fi-sounding name for this truth-is-stranger-than-fiction hurricane season.

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Posted on September 24, 2020 (4:00pm EDT).

Bob Henson

Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance...

137 replies on “With Teddy and Beta no longer threats, Atlantic hurricane season takes a break”

  1. MICHAEL E. MANN
    ON 9/28/20 AT 11:01 AM EDT
    News | OpinionThe Oceans Appear to Be Stabilizing. Here’s Why it’s Very Bad

    This seemingly technical finding has profound and troubling implications. The more stable the upper ocean, the less vertical mixing that takes place. This mixing is a primary means by which the ocean buries warming surface waters. So the surface warms up even faster. It’s what we call a “positive feedback”—a vicious cycle.

    That’s bad for a number of reasons. As we currently watch the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record play out, a key underlying factor is the anomalous surface warmth of the tropical Atlantic. The increasingly intense and damaging hurricanes we’ve seen in recent years have fed off warmer surface waters. More stably stratified waters tend to inhibit the wind-driven mixing up of cold deeper waters that often serves as a sort of release-valve, shutting off the source of energy at the surface that intensifies these storms. A more stably stratified ocean potentially favors more intense, destructive hurricanes.

    https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-oceans-stabilizing-1534512

  2. FLC101-300230-
    /O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0016.200929T1415Z-200930T0600Z/
    /WRGF1.1.ER.200928T0645Z.200928T1615Z.200930T0000Z.NO/
    1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
    
    The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has issued a
    
    * Flood Warning for
      the Cypress Creek At SR 54 Worthington Gardens.
    * From this morning to late tonight.
    * At 9:00 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet.
    * Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
    * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
    * Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
      at 9:00 AM EDT Tuesday was 8.0 feet.
    * Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
      evening and continue falling to 6.9 feet Friday morning.
    * Impact...At 8.0 feet, Flooding begins at the recreation area on
      State Road 54.
    * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.1
      feet on 05/29/1976.
    
    &&
    
    
                      Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
    Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
    
    Cypress Creek
    SR 54 Worthington 8.0   8.0   Tue 9 am  7.8   7.3   6.9   6.9   6.8
    
  3. I suspect the line of storms over the GOM and cluster of storms over the BOC will cross the yucatan and get into the western caribbean, this will interact with a tropical wave in the central caribbean currently and the interaction will create cyclonic flow, forming our tropical cyclone. A longwave trough resides over the eastern US and an impulse on Friday will move into the SE and pull some moisture from the system north, but it will still be consolidating in the NW Caribbean. A secondary trough arrives Sunday into the SE US and pulls at the very least lots of moisture from this potential storm across South and perhaps Central Florida and Cuba. An alternative scenario is whatever is down there stays weak and lingers for about a week around the NW Caribbean/Yucatan before a subsequent trough late next week pulls it into the SE GOM. We will see, but given how low shear is and the upper level anticyclone setting up over the NW Caribbean, I believe formation will happen more quickly, with heavy rain and a possible tropical cyclone crossing Florida early next week.

  4. The hype continues this season for East Coast Central Florida…. what is this the eighth or ninth time we’re going to get pounded here in East Coast Central Florida and nothing happens so this time around I’ll be sunny and hot as usual so stop all the nonsense hype Florida’s not getting anything

    1. You can’t see I’ve only been talking about Terry previous days dude? Come on Art, your lack of sincerity is showing.

    2. Haters hate they don’t debate. The saddest part is most people never seek. Perhaps you’ve just not been paying close enough attention Art. I’ll log for a long time again. I share to edify. I do not care what those who attack me with absolutely no sincerity think. Seek then speak. Always a good plan.

  5. News Flash: In a Nation perfectly divided 50/50, living fully different realities depending on which Main Stream Media people poision themselves with, National and World debt insolvent, AGW/Global Warming turned on high ignored on the back burner, lies the going rate; THE PLAN IS NOT TO FIX THIS. Quite the opposite. World approaching 300 trillion in debt now as well. To whom should be the question. I know. How and why did it happen? I know. I can tell you all also, those who have subjected the world so by my estimates, have roughly 750 trillion stolen from Humanity. I can tell you where it’s at, who’s got it, and how they got it. We could fix the wrongs not just here with that kinda scratch. People would have to care for the truth for that to happen. I’m sure trying, but the trend is ever faster in the wrong direction. You can’t want to fight AGW while ignoring the truths that make it so, as things are now, we’ll never win that fight. The enemies of Humanity are by nature DESTROYERS. I’m ever hopeful. I think we can win this fight.

      1. What I battle every day Athena. From both sides. Breaks my heart. In a matrix of alternative realities, both planted not for the people’s sake. Many know it, but to speak it? That is to be attacked on a visceral level that is very dangerous for our Nation. No Programming out there to break the Us vs Them. Just evermore so sadly.

  6. Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
    Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast
    to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical
    depression could form late this week or this weekend while the
    system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

  7. Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 – 9:00 AM JST September 29 2020
    SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (T2013)
    ================================================
    Sea East of Japan

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (980 hPa) located at 32.4N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

    Storm Force Winds
    ===================
    50 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
    30 nm from the center in western quadrant

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    280 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
    150 nm from the center in western quadrant

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.0-

    Forecast and Intensity
    =========================
    12 HRS: 36.3N 156.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea far east of Japan
    24 HRS: 39.7N 160.4E – Extratropical Low in Sea far east of Japan

  8. Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
    750 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

    .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE…
    A few showers persist over the interior…with an area of showers
    and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Florida associated with
    an outflow boundary pushing west toward the coast. Shower
    activity will end over the next couple of hours with skies
    becoming partly cloudy to high broken cloudiness overnight.
    Southwest boundary layer flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
    ahead of a cold front combined with a fairly saturated
    conditionally unstable atmosphere will allow scattered showers and
    possibly a few thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters
    after midnight which will begin to advect locally onshore late
    tonight and into tomorrow morning. The cold front will push
    across the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday night with a
    potential band of showers/thunderstorms, with a few strong storms
    possible mainly across the northern nature coast…but could
    extend as far south as the Tampa Bay area.

    &&

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