Maysak satellite image
NASA satellite image of Typhoon Maysak on Tuesday, September 1. (Image credit: NASA, via Voice of America)

Even as South Korea endured the landfall of Typhoon Maysak on Wednesday night, September 2, a developing tropical storm in the Northwest Pacific posed the spectre of another potential typhoon – one perhaps even stronger than Maysak – threatening the nation by late this weekend.

Maysak reached the South Korea coast shortly after Thursday morning local time (around 1 p.m. EDT Wednesday). Landfall was just west of Busan, the nation’s second-largest city and the world’s fifth-largest port. Maysak’s broad wind field likely pushed a substantial storm surge into a wide swath of coastline, including Busan.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar display showing core of Typhoon Maysak approaching southern coast of South Korea at 11:50 p.m. local time (10:50 a.m. EDT) on Wednesday, September 2. (Image credit: Tropical Cyclone Radar Loops, courtesy Brian McNoldy, University of Miami/Rosenstiel School)

About four hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center pegged Maysak’s top winds at 105 mph, the equivalent of a strong Category 2 storm. Sustained winds by the time of landfall were likely lower than this value. At 1:01 a.m. local time Thursday, the sea-level pressure at a station on the south end of Geoje Island dipped to 952.5 mb, just above the all-time national record of 951.5 mb recorded in Busan during catastrophic Typhoon Sarah (1959), and just below the 954.0 mb recorded during Typhoon Maemi (2003). The Korea Meteorological Administration estimated Maysak’s lowest pressure at landfall at 950 mb.

Sarah and Maemi are two of just five typhoons on record to affect mainland South Korea as Category 2 or stronger equivalents. All but one of these struck the nation’s southeast coast near or west of Busan.

A livestock carrier was reported missing on Wednesday just west of Maysak’s track over the East China Sea, as noted by marinetraffic.com. A search for the Gulf Livestock 1 carrier was under way but hampered by weather. The carrier had a crew of 43 and some 5,800 livestock on board, according to Marine Insight.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Typhoon Haishen over the Northwest Pacific at 1640Z (12:40 p.m. EDT) Wednesday, September 2. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Right on Maysak’s heels: Typhoon Haishen

Persistent steering currents from an upper low over northeast Asia may force the next Northwest Pacific system, Typhoon Haishen, to head toward South Korea. The rapidly intensifying Haishen is expected to reach Category 3 or 4 strength by Thursday as it heads northwest toward Japan’s Kyushu Islands.

Haishen will track farther east than Maysak for most of its life, thus avoiding the cold wake left by Maysak until this weekend, when models project it will be approaching the south coast of South Korea from the south-southeast. It’s too soon to be specific about landfall strength and location for Haishen, but intensity models are projecting that it may be even more powerful than Maysak as it passes over the Kyushu Islands.

Light to moderate wind shear of around 10 knots into Thursday should not pose much of an impediment to Haishen. Fueling Haishen’s strength will be a moist mid-level atmosphere, and sea surface temperatures along its track south of Japan at record or near-record levels (around 30°C or 86°F). Dozens of all-time heat records for September were set on Tuesday and Wednesday in Japan, which has just endured its third-hottest August on record, according to international weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera. Taiwan set its all-time September heat record on Wednesday – 39.4 degrees Celsius (102.9°F) at Donghe. It’s common for intense heat to develop in the sinking air just beyond the periphery of a strong hurricane or typhoon.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Oceanic heat content along the forecast track of Typhoon Haishen as of 12Z (8 a.m. EDT) Wednesday, September 2. Hurricane symbols show the forecast track, with the number in each symbol showing the forecast time (in hours) beyond 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Through Thursday, Haishen will be passing over water with very high heat content – more than 100 kilojoules per square centimeter. Values above 90 are often associated with rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Storm Nana may reach Belize as a hurricane

Churning across the western Caribbean, Tropical Storm Nana was on track Wednesday to skirt past the north coast of Honduras before making landfall in Belize, perhaps not far from Belize City, on Thursday morning. A hurricane warning was in effect for Belize, as it’s possible (though not certain) that Nana will intensify to hurricane strength before it arrives.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Infrared image of Tropical Storm Nana at 1740Z (1:40 p.m. EDT) Wednesday, September 2. (Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch.)

Nana’s compact size and steady motion will help limit its impacts. The storm’s stronger right-hand (north) side will remain over water until Nana reaches Belize, thus sparing Honduras from the heaviest rains and high winds. Torrential rains will accompany Nana into Belize and spread into northern Guatemala and southern Mexico, with localized amounts of five to 10 inches capable of triggering flash floods and mudslides. Major storm surge is not expected, but water levels could reach three to five feet above astronomical tides near and just north of Nana’s center.

Short-lived Omar passing harmlessly through Northwest Atlantic

This year’s cavalcade of Atlantic systems was joined by Tropical Storm Omar on Tuesday, September 1. Omar is noteworthy as yet another record-setting early developer in this busy season (see below), but it won’t be a memorable storm in itself.

Heading into the open Atlantic well east of U.S. shores and northwest of Bermuda, Omar was clinging to life as a minimal tropical storm on Wednesday morning, with sustained winds of just 40 mph. Throughout its life, Omar’s showers and thunderstorms have been pushed far east of its center by strong upper-level winds. That process should lead to Omar’s demise in the next day or two, with only a remnant low persisting.

Figure 5
Figure 5. GeoColor visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Omar as of 1800Z (2 p.m. EDT) Wednesday, September 2. The swirl of low clouds at Omar’s center was far removed from the showers and thunderstorms well to the east. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Omar’s arrival on September 1 marks the earliest date, in records going back to 1851, that any Atlantic season has produced its fifteenth tropical storm. This tops the record held jointly by Ophelia from September 7, 2005, and Nate from September 7, 2011. The earliest sixteenth named storm is Philippe from September 17, 2005. Only six more names remain on the 2020 Atlantic list before the National Hurricane Center will have to turn to the Greek alphabet, a last resort that’s been used only in 2005. That unforgettable year produced tropical storms Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and – on December 30 – Zeta.

Ocean heat as ‘fuel’ for hurricanes

The next system ripe for development is a large, loosely organized tropical wave now moving off the coast of West Africa. As it heads west, this wave will likely encompass a smaller system midway across the Atlantic. In its tropical weather outlook issued Wednesday afternoon, NHC gave this new system only a 10% chance of development by Friday, but a 60% chance by Monday.

With conditions overall still exceptionally favorable for development, it wouldn’t be a shock to see 2020 rivaling or exceeding 2005’s pace all the way to the Greek alphabet.

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Posted on September 2, 2020 (4:29pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Cat3Jupiter
Cat3Jupiter
23 days ago

Good afternoon

Greenbelt
Greenbelt
23 days ago

This predicted 980mb storm at the north pole could end up being the storm of week. According to the Mosaic ice research mission aboard the icebreaker Polarstern, the ice is in really rotten shape all the way to the pole this year, at least coming from the Atlantic and Siberian sides. A big storm could stir up some unexpected September melting from the bottom up (warmer water melting ice from below).
comment image

LAM65
LAM65
23 days ago

Seems like 2020 might rival 2005 in number of storms, but how are we doing in ACE comparison? I can’t remember a season with so many named naked swirls. That’s a good thing, though.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
23 days ago
Reply to  LAM65

We were 40% above average for ACE in the Atlantic as of 8/31.

LAM65
LAM65
22 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Thanks for the reply.

Skyepony
23 days ago

91Lcomment image?w=600&h=456

Skyepony
23 days ago

Falcon9 Launch – Had to change this to a png. WP won’t allow it as a jpg or jpeg.

Falcon90903.png
Terry
Terry
23 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

what a great sight to see! thanks SpaceX!

Skyepony (mod)
23 days ago

SpaceX Falcon 9 launch due to launch in less than 10 mins. https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/09/03/falcon-9-starlink-11-mission-status-center/

Philip Baer
Philip Baer
23 days ago

Are the names given to typhoons, such as Maysak and Haishen, names that are also given to people, or do they have some meaning? What language are they from?

WxColorado
WxColorado
23 days ago
Reply to  Philip Baer

several languages, and several different different naming naming schemes, depending upon jurisdiction.
Haiyan was also named Yolanda in the Phillippines,
Mangkhut is apparently a tropical fruit
the names are approved in advance, much like the naming for Atlantic, CPAC and EPAC storms, but I don’t know off the top of my head how

Stunglykabee
Stunglykabee
23 days ago
Reply to  Philip Baer

For the west pacific area, JMA (together with its 14 member countries) developed the name of the storms, with each county contributing names. JMA then assigns the name to particular storms since they are the monitoring agency in the area 🙂

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
24 days ago

jtwc

wp1120.gif
Terry
Terry
23 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

ballin!

dd.png
Terry
Terry
23 days ago
Reply to  Terry

natural balance!

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53 – 15:00 PM JST September 3 2020
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER TC MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Over land northeastern China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low Maysak (974 hPa) located at 42.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving north at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
300 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25 – 15:00 PM JST September 3 2020
TYPHOON HAISHEN (T2010)
=================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haishen (965 hPa) located at 20.6N 137.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.4N 134.3E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 490 km southeast of Minami-daito island (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 24.4N 131.6E – 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) 160 km south of Minami-daito island (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 28.4N 130.0E – 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Amami archipelago (Kagoshima prefecture)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago

Typhoon Maysak made landfall over North Korea with estimated central pressure of 970 hPa at around 1300 PM JST (JMA local time)

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
24 days ago

Wishing everyone in Belize and in the path of tiny but fierce Hurricane Nana well. May her core of 10 miles miss densely populated areas.

Last edited 24 days ago by Sunrisemama
Daniel mordue
Daniel mordue
24 days ago
Reply to  Sunrisemama

Last I knew it wasn’t a hurricane, and while there was still a chance, it was already making landfall in the evening. It is a tropical storm.

Hawaii Brian
Hawaii Brian
24 days ago

As Typhoon Maysak approaches, Vladivostok pressure is 994 mb with an 82°F temperature and a dew point of 75°F. Tropical in the taiga!

Daniel mordue
Daniel mordue
24 days ago
Reply to  Hawaii Brian

WOW!! That’s unusual for that part of Russia!! Those folks are certainly not used to that, and they gotta wonder what’s going on??? plus there’s all this “hurricane heat” in Japan. Yes, more and more weird extreme weather!!

Dirk
Dirk
23 days ago
Reply to  Daniel mordue

They did something very bad back in 1961. Just recent they came out with the video of it.The biggest man made explosion ever.

Hawaii Brian
Hawaii Brian
24 days ago

In July 2020, Phoenix AZ set a record for the wamest month on record, with an average temperature of 98.9°F (37.2°C). In August 2020, Phoenix had an average temperature of 99.1°F (37.3°C). Weather records for Phoenix began on August 6, 1895. When was the last time a station in the the CONUS with more than 100 years of prior records set new all time records for the warmest month on consecutive months?

WxColorado
WxColorado
24 days ago
Reply to  Hawaii Brian

Maximilliano Herera would likely know..

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
24 days ago

Thank you Mr. Henson. And whatever tweaks are being done to the blog, I appreciate it, first time I was able to comment without having to hit bold or italics first.

WxColorado
WxColorado
24 days ago

more of this, really?
Granted, Late August, early September seems to be the true hot times in the region.
but, still, really?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/weather/california-west-heat-wave-trnd/index.html

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
19 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

Test

comment image?hash=76399

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test
comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

Test

Hawaii Brian
Hawaii Brian
24 days ago

The national low pressure record for South Korea is 950 mb in September 2003
from Typoon Maemi. Did Maysak set a new low pressure record for the country?

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago
Reply to  Hawaii Brian

950 hPa was the estimated central pressure from JMA, KMA, and CMA

Hawaii Brian
Hawaii Brian
24 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

Thank you. I saw some 956 mb readings in Geoje-si and Busan, but they were hourly and outside the eye.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago
Reply to  Hawaii Brian

There is also this tweet being posted around. 953 hPa

Twitter: homosapieninhk tweet

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago

comment image new track map for Maysak while it’s still considered a strong typhoon (in the Sea of Japan)

Screenshot_2020-09-03 気象庁 台風情報.png
Last edited 24 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
24 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51 – 9:00 AM JST September 3 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (965 hPa) located at 38.8N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 33 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
90 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
270 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: CI 5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 48.0N 124.2E – Extratropical Low Over land northeastern China

———————————————

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 – 9:00 AM JST September 3 2020
TYPHOON HAISHEN (T2010)
=================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haishen (970 hPa) located at 20.2N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.7N 135.0E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 600 km southeast of Minami-daito island (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 23.7N 132.1E – 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) 250 km southeast of Minami-daito island (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 27.1N 130.5E – 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Amami islands (Kagoshima prefecture)

Dirk
Dirk
24 days ago

pressure drop and windspeed up in last frame:

goes16_rainbow_16L.gif
Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
24 days ago

Tragic about the livestock carrier. Looks like one man was reported rescued so far by Japanese coast guard. https://au.news.yahoo.com/ship-with-aussie-onboard-vanishes-at-sea-in-typhoon-japan-001305639.html

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
24 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Cargo ship with 43 crew and nearly 6,000 cattle sank off Japan, survivor saysStrong winds and rain from Typhoon Maysak hamper rescue of crew from Philippines, New Zealand and Australia
Sept 3: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/typhoon-maysak-ship-with-43-crew-and-nearly-6000-cattle-missing-off-japan

WxColorado
WxColorado
24 days ago

welp, now that we are at 15 named storms, I suspect that my prediction of 17 of the buggers was a wildly inaccurate prognostication
a previous year when I predicted 28 of them might be a little more in line at this rate

>Sigh<

Dirk
Dirk
24 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

We still have a chance, i´m with 17-15-6.

WxColorado
WxColorado
24 days ago
Reply to  Dirk

I now wonder when Elioe shows up here.
haven’t seen him yet

Dirk
Dirk
24 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

I believe he was here yesterday, if i remember correctly.

Dirk
Dirk
24 days ago

Thank you very much Bob, lots of info good read.

vis0
vis0
24 days ago

i’m out of breath…
CREDIT::NOAA/NASA/cyclonicwx
comment image

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
24 days ago

Thank you for the update.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago
Reply to  SunnyDaysFl

Test

gifsBy12hr_02.gif
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago
Reply to  Emsi

Test

comment image

Last edited 18 days ago by ChanceShowerLA
shebs
shebs
24 days ago

So this might be a dumb question, but a quick google search didn’t turn up anything – what is the difference between OHC (Oceanic Heat Content, like in the map Bob posted) and TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential)? I’ve seen both parameters posted at various times on the old Cat 6/Wu Blogs, but is there much of a functional difference in what they show and/or how they are computed?

Last edited 24 days ago by shebs
SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
24 days ago
Reply to  shebs

That is a great question, sure hope someone answers it.

Dirk
Dirk
24 days ago
Reply to  shebs

Dumb questions don´t excists. 😉