This week marks the climatological peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the record-busy pace of named storms in 2020 shows no signs of slowing down. By week’s end, there could be two additional named storms, Sally and Teddy, joining Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene.
Paulette and Rene pose no immediate threat to land
In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette, featuring 65 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, was headed northwest at 6 mph towards Bermuda. Paulette was experiencing high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots from an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west, and high wind shear will continue to affect the storm through the week, potentially causing Paulette to embark on a weakening trend. The high shear was forcing dry air from the Saharan Air Layer into Paulette’s circulation, slowing intensification.
Paulette could affect Bermuda by the middle of next week, and it is too early to completely dismiss the idea that the storm could affect the southeastern U.S. late next week. Hurricane Florence of 2018 took a path similar to Paulette’s and ended up making landfall in North Carolina. The Tuesday morning runs of the European and GFS ensemble forecasts did have a few of the 72 members predicting that Paulette would come close to the southeast U.S. coast late next week.
In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Rene, a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, was headed west at 16 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands. With adequately warm waters near 27 degrees Celsius (81°F), light wind shear, and a moist atmosphere, conditions appear favorable for Rene to intensify into a hurricane by week’s end. Rene is expected to turn to the northwest, and it is unlikely to affect any land areas after leaving behind the Cabo Verde Islands.
Southeast U.S. needs to watch 94L
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda on Tuesday afternoon was headed west-northwest at 5 – 10 mph towards the Carolinas. Satellite images showed that 94L had a weak surface circulation and was producing sparse and disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. Conditions for development through Thursday appeared favorable, with the 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicting a moderate 5 – 15 knots of wind shear, ocean temperatures near 29.5 – 30 degrees Celsius (85 – 86°F), and a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 65 – 70%. In a 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L two-day and five-day odds of development of 30% and 40%, respectively. On its current track, 94L will be near the Carolinas by Thursday, leaving little time for significant strengthening to occur. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L on Wednesday afternoon.
The next African tropical wave is also of concern
The top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are giving strong support for development to a new tropical wave predicted to emerge from the coast of Africa on Thursday.
This wave is predicted to move mostly westward at low latitude at 15 – 20 mph next week. Given its lower-latitude position compared to Paulette and Rene, this new tropical wave may be a long-range concern for the Caribbean and North America. Several ensemble members from the 0Z Tuesday, September 8, run of the European ensemble forecast showed that this new system would move through the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week as a hurricane. In a 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the new wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 70%, respectively.
The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Sally and Teddy.
Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)
Posted on September 8, 2020 (3:40pm EDT). See update: “Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene soon could be joined by Sally (but no longer by Teddy)” posted on September 9, 2020 (1:40pm EDT).
Thanks, Dr Masters!
I am so grateful that the blog community is still able to gather, share vital and timely info, and help educate each other.
Tropical cyclone formation probability (TCFP)…..next 48 hours…..
somethings not right with our environment
to think that it isn’t even the main fire season yet there
much like the Atlantic Cyclone season going Greek before September ends at this rate
I wonder when YCC will run a story on the fires in the west.
Spock I see three recent articles about fires on this site right now:
From September 4th: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/what-its-like-to-live-in-a-2020-california-wildfire/
September 5th: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/a-story-of-life-during-californias-recent-wildfires/
September 8: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/autumn-could-deliver-the-worst-of-californias-2020-fire-season/
Thanks. I was only looking in the list of stories under “Stories in Eye on the Storm”. I’m not used to this site yet, I guess.
Ahh, Winter is here
Is that like Glenwood Springs?
too early 🙁
supposed to be mid 60’s tomorrow afternoon, back to the 80’s this weekend.
having to pull in the garden (and farmer’s crops) early is more of a problem
I’m not going to lie.. I’m jealous right about now.
3:15 PM in the middle of the afternoon, the 35mph winds with 50mph gusts blew the heavy smoke plume to the south of us, leaving a still breexy, but blue sky day, in the 80 degree range (down from 110 yesterday), but, I think every fly on the planet blew in on the winds…like sitting out in the Alaskan woods right now. I just want to enjoy the best day here in months sitting outside in a cool breeze.
out come the trolls
Thanks Dr. Jeff, for this update it´s going to be a busy two weeks coming up i think. A very active season indeed.
as the front moves in!
Thanks again, Dr. Masters!
Thoughts and prayers for those being affected by the wildfires in Pacific W/NW…..
Michael making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in October 2018. Michael became the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the state since Hurricane Andrew.
Thanks for the updates Doc, looking forward to the next couple months of blog updates!
Thank You Dr. Masters; goes to show us that the Atlantic Basin does not need an active MJO pulse in the basin, to generate a classic Cape Verde peak period storm cluster, around the September 10th climatological peak in a forecast hyper-active season; if the two additional storms get named, that would be 4 additional Sept storms by middle of Sept (including 94L and the African wave)……With that being said, I am also concerned about October when the MJO is probably due back in terms of leftover CV waves getting a groove on in the Western Caribbean, Central American/Gomex disturbances, and traditional closer to home trof remnants that fester in low shear windows…….October will probably get us to some dangerous storms as well as the Greek Alphabet………Just Sayin…………..
Thank you brother
i remember when if in conversation a person mentioned that they heard or read of a person describing a year when 3 , 4 Tropical Storms where in the Atlantic at the same time, that person in the story was in their senior years (72+) and was remembering their childhood or maybe teen years.
Today if one makes such a comment its about such grouping of TS at one time 4 or 6 years ago. Soon “last year we had 4 within a week and 20 in a year” will become common-talk and some still think man-made chemically induced global warming is a made up thing. Please ask your neighbors that have to spend hard earned money preparing for 3 to 5 TS a year when their grandparents did that at most twice a year…not even counting the re re repair bills, insurance premiums, car/home cleaning etc.
i hope FEMA listened to my requests that dark plexiglass be used as dividers in storm shelters as if covid-19 re-fires and cloth is used::
1) Cloth can soak through from someone coughing too much, plexiglass
2) Cloth can snap as in if one pushes against a cloth it can straighten out
suddenly and expel any fluids on it into the air, plexiglass cannot.
3) Cloth/plastic can tear, Plexiglass needs lots of force on it to break.
4) Some clean cloth they think has a virus on it with flammable fluids (don’t
want to post what, but in the country its used to clean hands or run the
car) If cloth soaked in such accidentally ignited very dangerous
Yes Thanks doc!!
I remember when you wanted more rain earlier this year.
Paulette, Rene, Sally and Teddy, sounds like a partner swap movie from the 70’s. Glad there is no NHC “Q” storm naming or the TrumPee’s would wet their pants. 2 pairs heading northwest after each other, both look like they will each do a Fuji dance too a bit before possibly going poof. Fun to watch if all stay OTS…looks like each pair will show a grimacing face on the models…The Atlantic Screaming…
Great Peest, I mean Post.
Under the plume, in 50 mph gusts from the north, still coughing (ok, at least the cough is not covid-19 induced, there is that). ARMAGEDDON to the northwest and west, now in red flag extreme fire danger area also, but temps dropped from 110 yesterday to a blustery 75 degree wakeup temp this morning. No way to enjoy your coffee in thick smoke and blustery winds outside on the coolest (sub triple digit temp), morning in months.
2020 rolls on.
Thanks for the Updates,
Thanks for the post Dr Masters.
Comments are closed.