Three Atlantic systems image
Infrared satellite image at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, September 8, 2020, of three Atlantic tropical systems to watch. Superimposed in warm colors are the location of dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The SAL was affecting Rene and 94L to a lesser degree than Paulette. (Image credit: University of Wisconsin)

This week marks the climatological peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the record-busy pace of named storms in 2020 shows no signs of slowing down. By week’s end, there could be two additional named storms, Sally and Teddy, joining Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene.

Paulette and Rene pose no immediate threat to land

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette, featuring 65 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, was headed northwest at 6 mph towards Bermuda. Paulette was experiencing high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots from an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west, and high wind shear will continue to affect the storm through the week, potentially causing Paulette to embark on a weakening trend. The high shear was forcing dry air from the Saharan Air Layer into Paulette’s circulation, slowing intensification.

Paulette could affect Bermuda by the middle of next week, and it is too early to completely dismiss the idea that the storm could affect the southeastern U.S. late next week. Hurricane Florence of 2018 took a path similar to Paulette’s and ended up making landfall in North Carolina. The Tuesday morning runs of the European and GFS ensemble forecasts did have a few of the 72 members predicting that Paulette would come close to the southeast U.S. coast late next week.

In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Rene, a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, was headed west at 16 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands. With adequately warm waters near 27 degrees Celsius (81°F), light wind shear, and a moist atmosphere, conditions appear favorable for Rene to intensify into a hurricane by week’s end. Rene is expected to turn to the northwest, and it is unlikely to affect any land areas after leaving behind the Cabo Verde Islands.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Predicted path of this week’s tropical cyclones over the next five days from the 0Z Tuesday, September 8, run of the European ensemble model. The model’s 51 ensemble members (colored lines, which show minimum central pressure) predicted Paulette and Rene would move generally west-northwest across the central Atlantic; they would there be joined by a new tropical storm by the weekend, which would move generally westward after emerging from the coast of Africa on Thursday. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Southeast U.S. needs to watch 94L

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda on Tuesday afternoon was headed west-northwest at 5 – 10 mph towards the Carolinas. Satellite images showed that 94L had a weak surface circulation and was producing sparse and disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. Conditions for development through Thursday appeared favorable, with the 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicting a moderate 5 – 15 knots of wind shear, ocean temperatures near 29.5 – 30 degrees Celsius (85 – 86°F), and a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 65 – 70%. In a 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L two-day and five-day odds of development of 30% and 40%, respectively. On its current track, 94L will be near the Carolinas by Thursday, leaving little time for significant strengthening to occur. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L on Wednesday afternoon.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of 94L at 1 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The system had a small surface circulation and a sparse heavy thunderstorm activity. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

The next African tropical wave is also of concern

The top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are giving strong support for development to a new tropical wave predicted to emerge from the coast of Africa on Thursday.

Climate change is causing more rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes

This wave is predicted to move mostly westward at low latitude at 15 – 20 mph next week. Given its lower-latitude position compared to Paulette and Rene, this new tropical wave may be a long-range concern for the Caribbean and North America. Several ensemble members from the 0Z Tuesday, September 8, run of the European ensemble forecast showed that this new system would move through the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week as a hurricane. In a 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the new wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 70%, respectively.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Sally and Teddy.

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Posted on September 8, 2020 (3:40pm EDT). See update: “Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene soon could be joined by Sally (but no longer by Teddy)” posted on September 9, 2020 (1:40pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

Bob Woodward dropped a huge reveal today. We now know Trump knew all along the risk of Covid-19 as soon as late January. He readily is recorded saying he intentionally misled the Nation as a strategy. How many died because of this? How many more will?

I wrote this way back on 2/26/20: Trump and Pence speaking now (Wed.night Presidential Address) on Covid-19. The message is the risk to America is low. They are lying to you….

I’d say when the President admists to intentionally MISLEADING ALMOST TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND AMERICANS TO DEATH, IT’S FAR FROM OFF TOPIC WHAT I’M SAYING.

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
17 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

And he continues to downplay and even encourage his followers to not follows guidelines he knows will protect them, how much more evil can a person be to knowingly deceive those who trust him? I cannot be anymore disgusted.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago
Reply to  Sunrisemama

To tell people at his rallies there is almost no risk should show them once and for all who he really is.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Little late in the game to tell us now Bob Woodward? All these recordings were with Trump’s permission too. In our faces enough yet? My heart cries out for those who have died, Moms, Dads, Children, Grandparents, our Veterans, our Cops, our Doctors, and Minorities getting it worse than all. This should be okay with no one. I’ve been trying to move mountains to stop this ridiculously obvious evil.

Last edited 17 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Dirk
Dirk
17 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

And just now you recognise that, i have read a message on the old blog the first time about cases of the new corona in december 2019, and the news was that it was already happening as of halve november that the first cases apeared in Wuhan province.Just as of Januari 2020 the news came out by oficial channels. By that time most of the people of wuhan already had left the country for the chinese new-year hollidays. First cases in Europe were reported in France in februari.

Last edited 17 days ago by Dirk
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

Poweroutage map fail. It’s more than people think.

Last edited 17 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

Billion animals died in Australia fires last year. Scientists are screaming 75% of the Brazilian Rain Forests will be unrecoverable if actions aren’t taken immediately to stop the never ending fires there. We may be looking at hundreds of thousands displaced long term out West this Fire Season. This will be a late peak Hurricane Season, most of us know that. We’ve not yet hit peak of Fire Season either. 2020 is the perfect storm on out of control rapid intensification. Drove across areas of S.C/Georgia where hundreds of thousands of acres of corn was all dead, full loss. Rain of almost 2 feet above seasonal average for many places in the area had a devastating effect. Soil saturation has been very high all Spring and Summer here. When it rained it rained inches, with very few breaks of more than a few days. I would suspect crop losses are similar across many areas of the Southeast. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

President Bolsonara of Brazil and his Vice President recently told the BBC the Rain Forests were not burning and it’s all a lie. Picture from NASA’s (MODIS) August 1st, 2020. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

We enter the time when the monsters of September show. High Pressure builds back in the Atlantic soon; and steering goes back similar to earlier in the season. Paulette and Rene may not reach the U.S, too far out to know yet. What we can know is that landfalling major or majors will very likely happen yet this season across the basin. Including likely at least one more major landfall for the U.S. At least. NHC credits for picture.comment image

Terry
Terry
17 days ago

.

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Terry
Terry
17 days ago
Reply to  Terry

humid and full of particulate

David Castillo
David Castillo
17 days ago

Posibilidad de impacto para Centro America?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago
Reply to  David Castillo

Stormy weather moves in for much of Central America Thursday; but the storms in the Atlantic and coming off Africa should not threaten Central America at all.

David Castillo
David Castillo
15 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you so much

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

Atlantic Satellite loops shows after a lackluster d-max, 94L is putting on the circular shape and building convection now in earnest. %’s should go up later today.

Last edited 17 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Terry
Terry
17 days ago
Last edited 17 days ago by Terry
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

The real category five is empathy scalped alive
Little corners of planted thought
Parroting snark never fact checking
Group think run amuck in a house perfectly divided
I don’t wonder why I don’t get invited
I’m not speaking on specific people here
Many of you I hold very very dear
Have you seen Mosul, Beirut, or Damascus
Fortunate to not walk in their shoes in those disasters
Be like Patrap lift a hand up to your neighbor
Never know when you might need that same favor

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago

94L traveling along with the trough draped over Florida, not strong enough yet to consolidate storms vigerously around center. Mid level vort sad looking and convergence/divergence remains just off the Southeast coast. 94L has low windshear, decent moisture, but until convection can fire and sustain, 94L will remain needing a wardrobe. 94L has moved into an area of richer moisture than it was in last night, should have a decent day slowly building convection. comment image

Trough and 94L shown at 850mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Terry
Terry
17 days ago

Lots of SAL,

SAL.png
Terry
Terry
17 days ago
Reply to  Terry

keep em south

Terry
Terry
17 days ago
Reply to  Terry

hmm

get.png
Terry
Terry
17 days ago

omg not good!

0920_Goss-ERL20-fig3a.png
NSAlito
NSAlito
18 days ago

♫♪ Just stay away, René….
comment image

Last edited 18 days ago by NSAlito
Windsmurf
Windsmurf
18 days ago

Just watched Levi’s presentation for tonight. There is a lot to watch over the next week

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
17 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

This nice guy is 93, trying to get the hang of things here, and people are seriously downvoting a nice old guy trying to learn? Windsmurf I hope you don’t take it seriously, lot of good eggs here, and I’m glad you’re here too.

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
17 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you for your kind words young man, I do understand that some folks on here will not like me because I don’t have much to offer as far as weather expertise but I can most likely offer them a genuine advise on how to live a humble and peaceful life. Never allow the negative actions of others affect your vision of a beautiful day.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
18 days ago

94L hot tower. Heading into d-max looking good. Shear will be very conducive for development. Should continue to improve overnight and percentages will very likely go up. Updated windshear map is suggestive of 94L becoming one of our next named storms. comment image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Last edited 18 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago

Africa overnight…..

Africa.png
listenerVT
listenerVT
18 days ago

Thanks, Dr Masters!
I am so grateful that the blog community is still able to gather, share vital and timely info, and help educate each other.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago

Tropical cyclone formation probability (TCFP)…..next 48 hours…..

comment image

terry
terry
18 days ago
Reply to  Susan Anderson

somethings not right with our environment

WxColorado
WxColorado
18 days ago
Reply to  Art

to think that it isn’t even the main fire season yet there
much like the Atlantic Cyclone season going Greek before September ends at this rate
202, Sigh

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
18 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

I wonder when YCC will run a story on the fires in the west.

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
18 days ago
Reply to  O Smith

Thanks

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
18 days ago
Reply to  Hawaii Brian

Thanks. I was only looking in the list of stories under “Stories in Eye on the Storm”. I’m not used to this site yet, I guess.

WxColorado
WxColorado
18 days ago

Ahh, Winter is here

IMG_20200908_134212.jpg
jiiski
jiiski
18 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

Is that like Glenwood Springs?
Brrr!

WxColorado
WxColorado
18 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

Aspen LOL

terry
terry
18 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

too early 🙁

WxColorado
WxColorado
18 days ago
Reply to  terry

supposed to be mid 60’s tomorrow afternoon, back to the 80’s this weekend.
having to pull in the garden (and farmer’s crops) early is more of a problem

Mizcaintx
Mizcaintx
17 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado

I’m not going to lie.. I’m jealous right about now.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago

Paulette….

comment image?hash=38538

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
18 days ago

3:15 PM in the middle of the afternoon, the 35mph winds with 50mph gusts blew the heavy smoke plume to the south of us, leaving a still breexy, but blue sky day, in the 80 degree range (down from 110 yesterday), but, I think every fly on the planet blew in on the winds…like sitting out in the Alaskan woods right now. I just want to enjoy the best day here in months sitting outside in a cool breeze.

Terry
Terry
18 days ago

out come the trolls

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Dirk
Dirk
18 days ago

Thanks Dr. Jeff, for this update it´s going to be a busy two weeks coming up i think. A very active season indeed.

Terry
Terry
18 days ago

🙁

scary stuff.jpg
Terry
Terry
18 days ago

😉

Terry
Terry
18 days ago

hmm.

sa.png
Terry
Terry
18 days ago
Reply to  Terry

as the front moves in!

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
18 days ago

Thanks again, Dr. Masters!

Thoughts and prayers for those being affected by the wildfires in Pacific W/NW…..

Fire.png
Amature Met
18 days ago

Michael making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in October 2018. Michael became the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the state since Hurricane Andrew.



420px-Michael_2018-10-10_1715Z_cropped.jpg
Terry
Terry
18 days ago

Thanks for the updates Doc, looking forward to the next couple months of blog updates!

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
18 days ago

Thank You Dr. Masters; goes to show us that the Atlantic Basin does not need an active MJO pulse in the basin, to generate a classic Cape Verde peak period storm cluster, around the September 10th climatological peak in a forecast hyper-active season; if the two additional storms get named, that would be 4 additional Sept storms by middle of Sept (including 94L and the African wave)……With that being said, I am also concerned about October when the MJO is probably due back in terms of leftover CV waves getting a groove on in the Western Caribbean, Central American/Gomex disturbances, and traditional closer to home trof remnants that fester in low shear windows…….October will probably get us to some dangerous storms as well as the Greek Alphabet………Just Sayin…………..

Last edited 18 days ago by WxManWannaBe
Terry
Terry
18 days ago
Reply to  WxManWannaBe

Thank you brother

vis0
vis0
18 days ago

i remember when if in conversation a person mentioned that they heard or read of a person describing a year when 3 , 4 Tropical Storms where in the Atlantic at the same time, that person in the story was in their senior years (72+) and was remembering their childhood or maybe teen years.

Today if one makes such a comment its about such grouping of TS at one time 4 or 6 years ago. Soon “last year we had 4 within a week and 20 in a year” will become common-talk and some still think man-made chemically induced global warming is a made up thing. Please ask your neighbors that have to spend hard earned money preparing for 3 to 5 TS a year when their grandparents did that at most twice a year…not even counting the re re repair bills, insurance premiums, car/home cleaning etc.

i hope FEMA listened to my requests that dark plexiglass be used as dividers in storm shelters as if covid-19 re-fires and cloth is used::

1) Cloth can soak through from someone coughing too much, plexiglass

does not.

2) Cloth can snap as in if one pushes against a cloth it can straighten out

suddenly and expel any fluids on it into the air, plexiglass cannot.

3) Cloth/plastic can tear, Plexiglass needs lots of force on it to break.

4) Some clean cloth they think has a virus on it with flammable fluids (don’t

want to post what, but in the country its used to clean hands or run the

car) If cloth soaked in such accidentally ignited very dangerous

Art
Art
18 days ago

Yes Thanks doc!!

Art
Art
18 days ago
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
430 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

FLC095-117-082230-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0089.200908T2030Z-200908T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
430 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Western Orange County in east central Florida...
  Southwestern Seminole County in east central Florida...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
  fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Orlando, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, Winter Garden, Winter
  Park, Casselberry, Maitland, Windermere, Bay Lake, Pine Hills,
  Lockhart, Oak Ridge, College Park, Conway, Zellwood, Azalea Park,
  Belle Isle and Oakland.

An additional 1 to 2 inches can be expected in some areas in the
Flood Advisory area through 6 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 2852 8131 2847 8137 2843 8147 2836 8161
      2836 8166 2837 8166 2838 8166 2841 8166
      2842 8166 2857 8165 2858 8165 2859 8165
      2870 8165 2874 8147 2867 8137 2864 8131

$$
O Smith
O Smith
18 days ago
Reply to  Art

I remember when you wanted more rain earlier this year.

message delivered!

LookC
LookC
18 days ago

Thanks, Doc!

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
18 days ago

Paulette, Rene, Sally and Teddy, sounds like a partner swap movie from the 70’s. Glad there is no NHC “Q” storm naming or the TrumPee’s would wet their pants. 2 pairs heading northwest after each other, both look like they will each do a Fuji dance too a bit before possibly going poof. Fun to watch if all stay OTS…looks like each pair will show a grimacing face on the models…The Atlantic Screaming…

Deano
Deano
18 days ago

Great Peest, I mean Post.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
18 days ago

https://twitter.com/i/status/1303178497481818112

Under the plume, in 50 mph gusts from the north, still coughing (ok, at least the cough is not covid-19 induced, there is that). ARMAGEDDON to the northwest and west, now in red flag extreme fire danger area also, but temps dropped from 110 yesterday to a blustery 75 degree wakeup temp this morning. No way to enjoy your coffee in thick smoke and blustery winds outside on the coolest (sub triple digit temp), morning in months.

2020 rolls on.

PedleyCA
PedleyCA
18 days ago

Thanks for the Updates,

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
18 days ago

Thanks for the post Dr Masters.