Satellite image of 96L
Visible satellite image of disturbance 96L at 12:10 p.m. EDT Friday, September 11, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Surface observations on Friday indicate that pressures were falling over the northwestern and central Bahamas in association with an area of disturbed weather, designated 96L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Satellite images showed a steady increase in the organization and intensity of 96L’s heavy thunderstorm activity, with low-level spiral banding taking shape. Upper-level cirrus cloud motions indicated that upper-level outflow was occurring to the north, east, and south, and beginning to occur to the west – a sign that 96L was growing more organized.

Figure 1 96L
Figure 1. Radar image of 96L at 12 p.m. EDT September 11. The system was beginning to develop curved low-level spiral bands. (Image credit: Bahamas Department of Meteorology)

Forecast for 96L

This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. By Sunday, steering currents will favor more of a west-northwest to northwest motion, which would bring 96L ashore between the central Louisiana and Florida Panhandle coasts on Tuesday.

The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida Friday night, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression on Saturday or Sunday, since it has to overcome its initial lack of spin.

Conditions for development Sunday through Tuesday are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico, with wind shear predicted to be a low 5 – 10 knots, sea surface temperatures a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), and the atmosphere reasonably moist, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60 – 65%. The system had weak model support for development on Friday morning, but this is the type of system that models struggle with in the early development stages.

Regardless of development, 96L will produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys through the weekend. In a special 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 60% and 70%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L on Saturday afternoon.

Paulette a significant threat to Bermuda

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette, with 65 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, was headed northwest at 10 mph toward Bermuda. Paulette was holding its own against very high wind shear of 40 knots from an upper-level trough of low pressure. That very high wind shear is expected to continue through Saturday morning, which should keep Paulette from strengthening.

By Saturday afternoon, the trough is predicted to split as Paulette penetrates through it, and wind shear will relax to a moderate 10 – 20 knots. Shear is predicted to fall to less than 10 knots on Sunday and Monday. The lower shear, combined with a moist atmosphere and warm sea surface temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), will likely allow Paulette to strengthen into a hurricane. The majority of the top intensity models and the official NHC forecast call for Paulette to be a category 2 hurricane on Monday, when it will make its closest approach to Bermuda. The 6Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Paulette would make a direct hit on the island on Monday morning as a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

Bermuda currently appears to be the only land area facing a possible Paulette landfall. Steering currents are well-positioned to turn Paulette to the north and then northeast on Monday and Tuesday, and the storm is not expected to be a landfall threat in the U.S. The first hurricane hunter mission into Paulette is scheduled for Saturday evening.

Rene not a threat to land

In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Rene, a low-end tropical storm with 40 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, was headed west-northwest at 13 mph into the central Atlantic, far from any land areas. With adequately warm waters near 26.5 degrees Celsius (80°F), light to moderate wind shear, but a dry atmosphere, conditions appear marginally favorable for Rene to intensify to 60 mph winds by Sunday, as stated in the official NHC forecast. Rene is expected to turn more to the west by Monday and begin weakening; the storm is unlikely to affect any land areas.

According to floodlist.com, the tropical wave that became Rene produced torrential rains and deadly flooding in West Africa. Six flood deaths occurred in Senegal, with up to eight inches of rain falling in 24 hours on September 5. Three flood deaths occurred in Burkina Faso.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Predicted path of Atlantic tropical cyclones over the next seven days from the 0Z Friday, September 11, run of the European ensemble model. Most of the model’s 51 ensemble members (colored lines, which show minimum central pressure) predicted Paulette would come very close to Bermuda as a hurricane, then recurve to the northeast. Four other potential areas to watch include two disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico with 5-day formation odds of 20% and 30%, and two tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with 5-day formation odds of 40% and 90%. The most concerning was a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (5-day formation odds of 90%), expected to move westward and potentially threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands in 6 – 8 days. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

A Gulf of Mexico disturbance worth watching

NHC was monitoring an area of interest over the north-central Gulf of Mexico producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Some slow development is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to inhibit its development. In an 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively.

95L off the coast of Africa a threat to develop

Top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis strongly support development of a tropical wave located on Friday afternoon a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa.

This system, designated 95L by NHC, is predicted to move mostly westward at low latitude at 15 to 20 mph. Given its lower-latitude position than that of Paulette and Rene, 95L may be a long-range concern for the Caribbean and North America, though most of the computer model forecasts with their Friday morning runs indicated a path north of the Caribbean. Over 20% of the 51 ensemble members from the 0Z Friday, September 11, run of the European ensemble forecast showed that this new system would be a named storm in the Caribbean by Thursday, September 17. The system could affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday night.

The future track of 95L could be affected by the position and strength of Paulette and Rene, by the structure of the wave once it organizes into a tropical depression, and also by the path and intensity of another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Friday – variables very difficult to accurately predict. In an 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L two-day and five-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively.

PHOTOHow to protect your home from flood damage

A wave behind 95L, emerging from the coast of Africa on Friday afternoon, was given two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively. This wave will move west-northwest through the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Sally and Teddy.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 11, 2020 (2:07pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

Water vapor imagry shows a big problem. Notice the symettry? Notice the environment ahead too? Not a lot of time to get ready either. Still better than being out West in the inferno areas.comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

Did the NHC get TA13 yet? Feel like we need to start a fantasy forecasting league. Top 100 Experts on the board. Who goes first? I’m voting Oscar The Grouch because it’s always dry at the bottom of a trash can. I’ve been informed he moves for storm surge. This is a poll we can all get behind. Top 100 experts on the science of forecasting we love so much.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I learned so much from Beel I’m putting him at #1 for me here. Overall, I’ll have to look into that. Rick Knabb and Jeff Masters top ten. Bob Henson? Don’t sleep on him.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Beel for forecasting The Wunderblogs for the macro of AGW, written so beautifully, anyone can understand it clearly.

Last edited 8 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

If TD-19 shoots the Florida Straits I don’t like this one bit I tell ya. Lot of heros during Katrina and Harvey. Not saying this will be such. Just saying, in case it is, we are ready. Point is most are decent caring sincere people at their core. That’s important.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

Thank you Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson. Thank you all who made the old home what it was. I have a lot of hope. For good shall conquer evil; and I’d like to believe most here, even those who disagree with me, are not evil.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

Watertrain leading the way off the west of Florida pictured. Also pictured the 15-20kts of shear to the west of TD-19. Not a big pocket, but hopefully enough. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16rgbairmass/g16airmass.jpg http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Dirk
Dirk
8 days ago

Thank you Dr.Jeff.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

At the 500mb level we see TD-19 will not likely make it as far as western Louisiana, even though LLC seems to be going to avoid land. The convection off Florida’s west coast is enhancing the moisture ahead. Link for picture: https://www.weathercharts.org/noaa-charts.htmcomment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
8 days ago

TD19…..

comment image?hash=72059

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

Look where consolidation has happened. TD-19’s center land interaction will be little with southern Florida. This is not good. Half million displaced already this year out West due to fires. With the Hurricane and Fire Season to come, we’re gonna need all the humanity we can get. TD-19 has a little shear pocket in front, hopefully will do some damage. comment image

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Good evening young man, thank you for your insight and expertise.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

93 years young Windsmurf. Good to see you. 1927 baby? Wow. What a time. I’d love to hear the story some time please.

Last edited 8 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Windsmurf
Windsmurf
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I can tell you that I was 11 months old when we got hit with the dangerous Ockeechobe hurricane of 1928. I have been living in Florida my entire life. I have survived quite a few storms. Most of them in my early years were surprise because we didn’t know that they were coming. We had no television or internet in the old days.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

We have multiple historians here. Christopher Burt, HurricaneHistory, and others. What were the effects your family endured during the Ockeechobe hurricane of 1928? I’m sure the historians would find your story priceless as I do.

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

As per mother, we lost everything and were forced to move down to Miami and stayed with relatives for a few months. my father and 2 older brothers who were 10 and 11 years old stayed behind and rebuilded our farm house in Belle Glades

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

Wow, so impressionable I bet you remember it even? How did the rebuild go? To be just a baby then but have the full skinny. That’s pretty cool. And shows how strong people really are!

Last edited 8 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

Was a time we reveared our elders in our Nation Windsmurf. You are a wealth of knowledge.

Last edited 8 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Canehunters
Canehunters
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Just like Katrina did. Luckily it’s not a cat 1.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Canehunters

Shear pocket is shallow and a window of almost nil shear is apparent. Convergence is low due to distance from anti-cyclone. May be enough to shear and entrain some dry air. Mean average at 100mph right now I think. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow. NHC has been the best for a long time for a reason. Always trust the NHC. Rick Knabb, Jeff Masters, Bob Henson, all the best sources to go to. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Levi Cowen and the NHC are one in the same now. A first round draft pick if I’ve ever seen one. Not everyone can make their bones flying into Hugo. Jeff Masters you indeed became a force of nature afterwards. A good one.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
8 days ago

The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression. That is from the NHC on TD-19.

-10 for this comment I shared from much earlier in the day.

Wyatt Washburn here on YCC
 11 hours ago

That’s a crazy amount of -80 at least cloudtops popping all around 96L now. Too early to call it a pre rapid intensification look with no defined low level center; but all these little circular strong blowups is a sign 96L may takeoff in earnest today.

I am an expert on many subjects. I have called tornadoes at a 5 minute lead time above the SPC for over a decade. At a % few would believe. Doesn’t make it not true. Little nugget got dropped today to me. Was told, Wyatt don’t assume people hate you. Point was though many do hate me, many don’t. Loud and clear. Thanks YCC for letting me still be here. 2020 better be a year of empathy with all the disasters adding up. Love your neighbor as yourself is a good starting point.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
8 days ago

Pretty large 7-day rainfall estimates…..

comment image?1599877124

Preston
Preston
8 days ago

Sorry. Is there a link back to WU blog that is active?

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
8 days ago
Reply to  Preston
terry
terry
8 days ago

danger

IMG_20200911_211851.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
8 days ago

Looks like larger convection firing up south of the NHC 8 PM center location….maybe the mid-level vorticity is trying to take over…..

sat_conuse_2km_wvenh_20200912_0106.jpg
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
8 days ago

Happy B-Day, Dr. Masters!! Working hard even on your big day!!

TD19 showing estimated max winds of 28kts (~32mph)…..

comment image

terry
terry
8 days ago

thx for ur vid Sparta

Art
Art
8 days ago

good night everyone..be safe out there

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Art

night Art.

Art
Art
8 days ago

TD 19’s wind cone and timing…………comment image

WxColorado
WxColorado
8 days ago
Reply to  Art

not a PTC? being so close to the coast?

Art
Art
8 days ago

they extended WCF’s Flood Watch to include more inland area’s now…..comment image

Skyepony
8 days ago

19L as the sun goes down.comment image

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

sally?

terry
terry
8 days ago

hey cut that out

Karen
Karen
8 days ago

Enough is enough with this crazy insane hurricane season we can’t take any more here in East Central Florida it’s been too hot and sunny all summer please let’s get on with Paul enough of all this crazy storms

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago

comment image

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

so cat 4?

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  terry

slow n steady

Terry
Terry
8 days ago

../

wowzers.png
Terry
Terry
8 days ago

Quote RandyRanderson “Hello all. Here we go again Gulf Coast residents. Never took down my Laura prep here in LA for this exact reason. Figured it would be only a week or 2 before the cone returned.”

Noted.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago
  • The phrase “La Niña” is Spanish for “the girl” and sometimes called “El Viejo” (old man). It is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. In comparison, El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
  • La Niña is a natural phenomenon in the climate system that has been occurring for centuries. Detailed observations from ships led to systematic instrumental record keeping in the earlier half of the twentieth century.
  • La Niñas appear approximately every 3-5 years and typically last 1-2 years.
  • Global climate abnormalities of La Niña are less pronounced and in some areas tend to be the opposite of those associated with El Niño. However, the effects of La Niña are not always opposite to that of El Niño.
  • After an El Niño, the climate does not always swing to a La Niña phase. There have been only 17 moderate to strong La Niñas compared to 25 moderate to strong El Niños in the twentieth century.
  • It is believed that La Niña’s cooling of the equatorial Pacific tends to favour hurricane formation in the western Atlantic. In contrast, El Niño conditions tend to suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, but increase the number of tropical storms over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
  • La Niña usually brings colder winters to the Canadian west and Alaska, and drier, warmer weather to the American southeast.

provided by environment Canada

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
8 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary – 3:00 AM JST September 12 2020
==================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 31.0N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 23 knots.

Last edited 8 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
8 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

.

Screenshot_2020-09-11 wp1220 gif (GIF Image, 1783 × 964 pixels) - Scaled (94%).png
Terryt
Terryt
8 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

i knew it! sorry the EGO speaking!

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago

comment image revised with overlays

Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

blowin up!

terry
terry
8 days ago

meeting up with that low . too much rain over paradise

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  terry

.

get.gif
Shira
Shira
8 days ago
Reply to  terry

We do need rain on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Just not that much.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago
Reply to  terry

gonna get some ponding

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

maybe a few new lakes as well

Last edited 8 days ago by WiFIFoFum
terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

lol u make me laugh . thx

Shira
Shira
8 days ago

TS watch now in effect for areas of Florida:

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1304524890658287617

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago

comment image

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago

TGIF

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

right on time

Shira
Shira
8 days ago
terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Shira

wow

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago
Reply to  Shira

Test…..

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
8 days ago

A bit off-topic – but wow, look at the wildfires going crazy across the west! This is getting crazy. We’re having an historic hurricane season that is about to get leveled-up by La Nina, and the western US is just burning out-of-control. Nothing to see here! Totally not climate related. Nope!

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

for the Rabbit

terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

;o

skycycle
skycycle
8 days ago

Waiting to see some rainfall estimates for Bermuda re: Paulette – anything over 4.85 in will enter the all-time top 10 – record is held by the 1939 October hurricane with 7.35 in.

Northeast Quadrant
Northeast Quadrant
8 days ago

Tropics active

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
8 days ago

Wait and Watch…Will 2020 show the first Triple storm Fuji Pinwheel effect in the Atlantic?. Will the first Smoke Filled EPAC Hurricane be born?

Last edited 8 days ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
Terry
Terry
8 days ago

aye!

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
8 days ago

I doubt the fuji pinwheel theory will come to pass. One or two will get ‘eaten’ first. As for a smoke-i-cane, also this won’t be a first. There have been hurricanes that picked up material from volcanic eruptions and spread them out ‘real good’ as they say here in the south.

Terry
Terry
8 days ago

.

qoq.png
Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry
Terry
Terry
8 days ago

heretic!

fe.jpg
Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry

..

Last edited 8 days ago by Terry
Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry

.

de.jpg
terry
terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry

ready set learn

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago

….

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
8 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

To our Allies, friends and special saviors of Canada, with forever thanks to the super warm caring people of Gander, Newfoundland (who took in and specially cared for 7,000 plus of our people for days 19 years ago today), even though you were unknowing in that fateful day, you laid out the biggest welcome mat ever, and shared everything you had available…and more.

You, our friends and forever family, will always be among the thousands upon thousands of unsung heroes to both us in the states, and all those stranded passengers caught up in the emergencies created by those cowardly and horrible terroristic acts of 9-11-01. Your lights of friendship in trying and dangerous stormy times, has shined brightly, and you showed the world your unending hospitality, caring, and love as a people.

Thank you again our friends. We will never forget your care and love Gander, NF-CN.

Last edited 8 days ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
greiner3
greiner3
8 days ago

Did your 2020 wish come true?

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
8 days ago
Reply to  greiner3

I wish for nothing I only wait watch see

CAPT DEEZ
CAPT DEEZ
8 days ago

Who has the link to the wunderground site

Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  CAPT DEEZ
micatnight
8 days ago

Is there a way to write to Dr Masters or Bob Henson? Used to be able to do that through Wunderground, but I don’t see that address anymore.

Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  micatnight

email them, I am pretty sure he posted his email!

micatnight
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry

That’s the most unhelpful response I think I’ve ever gotten. Thanks for nothing!

micatnight
8 days ago

Well, I wanted to post a picture of a chart of the hurricane season so far, but it will only let me post a picture of Dexter. Very peculiar rules.

20200908_082819.jpg
elioe
elioe
8 days ago
beell
beell
8 days ago

Happy Birthday, Doc!

0911 Doc Masters.jpg
Sunny
Sunny
8 days ago

Have a wonderful birthday!

Terry
Terry
8 days ago

Looking forward to the Sunday post , Thanks for the afternoon update!

Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Terry

happy bday

df.jpg
Shira
Shira
9 days ago

Happy birthday!!!

Nrtiwlnvragn
9 days ago

Happy birthday Doc

Happy Birthday.gif
Terry
Terry
8 days ago
Reply to  Nrtiwlnvragn

Happy Bday!