Satellite image of 96L
Visible satellite image of disturbance 96L at 12:10 p.m. EDT Friday, September 11, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Surface observations on Friday indicate that pressures were falling over the northwestern and central Bahamas in association with an area of disturbed weather, designated 96L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Satellite images showed a steady increase in the organization and intensity of 96L’s heavy thunderstorm activity, with low-level spiral banding taking shape. Upper-level cirrus cloud motions indicated that upper-level outflow was occurring to the north, east, and south, and beginning to occur to the west – a sign that 96L was growing more organized.

Figure 1 96L
Figure 1. Radar image of 96L at 12 p.m. EDT September 11. The system was beginning to develop curved low-level spiral bands. (Image credit: Bahamas Department of Meteorology)

Forecast for 96L

This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. By Sunday, steering currents will favor more of a west-northwest to northwest motion, which would bring 96L ashore between the central Louisiana and Florida Panhandle coasts on Tuesday.

The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida Friday night, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression on Saturday or Sunday, since it has to overcome its initial lack of spin.

Conditions for development Sunday through Tuesday are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico, with wind shear predicted to be a low 5 – 10 knots, sea surface temperatures a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), and the atmosphere reasonably moist, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60 – 65%. The system had weak model support for development on Friday morning, but this is the type of system that models struggle with in the early development stages.

Regardless of development, 96L will produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys through the weekend. In a special 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 60% and 70%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L on Saturday afternoon.

Paulette a significant threat to Bermuda

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette, with 65 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, was headed northwest at 10 mph toward Bermuda. Paulette was holding its own against very high wind shear of 40 knots from an upper-level trough of low pressure. That very high wind shear is expected to continue through Saturday morning, which should keep Paulette from strengthening.

By Saturday afternoon, the trough is predicted to split as Paulette penetrates through it, and wind shear will relax to a moderate 10 – 20 knots. Shear is predicted to fall to less than 10 knots on Sunday and Monday. The lower shear, combined with a moist atmosphere and warm sea surface temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), will likely allow Paulette to strengthen into a hurricane. The majority of the top intensity models and the official NHC forecast call for Paulette to be a category 2 hurricane on Monday, when it will make its closest approach to Bermuda. The 6Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Paulette would make a direct hit on the island on Monday morning as a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

Bermuda currently appears to be the only land area facing a possible Paulette landfall. Steering currents are well-positioned to turn Paulette to the north and then northeast on Monday and Tuesday, and the storm is not expected to be a landfall threat in the U.S. The first hurricane hunter mission into Paulette is scheduled for Saturday evening.

Rene not a threat to land

In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Rene, a low-end tropical storm with 40 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, was headed west-northwest at 13 mph into the central Atlantic, far from any land areas. With adequately warm waters near 26.5 degrees Celsius (80°F), light to moderate wind shear, but a dry atmosphere, conditions appear marginally favorable for Rene to intensify to 60 mph winds by Sunday, as stated in the official NHC forecast. Rene is expected to turn more to the west by Monday and begin weakening; the storm is unlikely to affect any land areas.

According to floodlist.com, the tropical wave that became Rene produced torrential rains and deadly flooding in West Africa. Six flood deaths occurred in Senegal, with up to eight inches of rain falling in 24 hours on September 5. Three flood deaths occurred in Burkina Faso.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Predicted path of Atlantic tropical cyclones over the next seven days from the 0Z Friday, September 11, run of the European ensemble model. Most of the model’s 51 ensemble members (colored lines, which show minimum central pressure) predicted Paulette would come very close to Bermuda as a hurricane, then recurve to the northeast. Four other potential areas to watch include two disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico with 5-day formation odds of 20% and 30%, and two tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with 5-day formation odds of 40% and 90%. The most concerning was a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (5-day formation odds of 90%), expected to move westward and potentially threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands in 6 – 8 days. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

A Gulf of Mexico disturbance worth watching

NHC was monitoring an area of interest over the north-central Gulf of Mexico producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Some slow development is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to inhibit its development. In an 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively.

95L off the coast of Africa a threat to develop

Top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis strongly support development of a tropical wave located on Friday afternoon a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa.

This system, designated 95L by NHC, is predicted to move mostly westward at low latitude at 15 to 20 mph. Given its lower-latitude position than that of Paulette and Rene, 95L may be a long-range concern for the Caribbean and North America, though most of the computer model forecasts with their Friday morning runs indicated a path north of the Caribbean. Over 20% of the 51 ensemble members from the 0Z Friday, September 11, run of the European ensemble forecast showed that this new system would be a named storm in the Caribbean by Thursday, September 17. The system could affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday night.

The future track of 95L could be affected by the position and strength of Paulette and Rene, by the structure of the wave once it organizes into a tropical depression, and also by the path and intensity of another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Friday – variables very difficult to accurately predict. In an 11:25 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L two-day and five-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively.

PHOTOHow to protect your home from flood damage

A wave behind 95L, emerging from the coast of Africa on Friday afternoon, was given two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively. This wave will move west-northwest through the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Sally and Teddy.

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Posted on September 11, 2020 (2:07pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
171 Comments
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jiiski
jiiski
12 days ago

Packed and will be leaving New Orleans in about one hour.
Good luck to all in Sally’s way.

Dirk
Dirk
12 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

Good luck take care jiiski.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago

Looking for a reason this won’t be a 2005 repeat? Gulf Eddies far different than 2005 when Hurricane Katrina took full advantage of a super heated eddy. In 2018 a similar eddy was in place as well. Hurricane Katrina like intensification should not happen without this enhancer. RI possible if not likely though, and T.S Sally will eventually be pushing a large storm surge. Sally is a big storm, some shear, no super eddy, some reasons to hope that keeps T.S Sally on the steady not explosive increase. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Katrina was unique to why super rapid intensification took place. Sally does not have the conditions to bomb out to a category five. Just not there. A large 115-125 mph major is not out of the question for Sally’s peak. Updated shear map shows shear has increased which will tamper potential for R.I. Shear still conducive to intensification though, in the 10-15kt range. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Terry
Terry
13 days ago

gosh!

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

🙁

no way.png
Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

.

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NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=17L&product=truecolor

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=19L&product=truecolor

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=92E&product=truecolor

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=20L&product=wv-mid

4 different simultaneous views of 4 different areas, 4 sets of twins, all paired up and ready to blow…2020 may not be an ACE master yet, but it is the year of dancing partners arriving for the big dance together. And, there are more out there in parts of the globe not shown. They are taking the year and conveying the double up to heart.

And all 4 of those swirling pairs (dancing partners), are all close enough to be conjoined in some way with 1 another currently by some kind of cloud banding.

I just hope anyone and everyone, possibly in potential harms way anywhere, is fully prepared, stay safe ya’ll.

Last edited 13 days ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
Stormfury
Stormfury
13 days ago

TD 20 forms in the central atlantic

Stormfury
Stormfury
13 days ago
Reply to  Stormfury

Looks very organised and could TS Teddy the next 24 hrs

Stormfury
Stormfury
13 days ago
Reply to  Stormfury

From 95L

Terry
Terry
13 days ago

Never seen this before

0a2cae734dd95d5a9afda45bfbd40de46e2c6c58c6fd18e6cd43e6925244d8f9.png
Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

shocking!

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Very active right now. The folks at the NHC must be very busy these days

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

no comment……

feeling sick.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Duel disasters, one burning, one inbound, quite the picture. I can’t even imagine being in California right now. Thanks Terry for the overview.

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Water vapour is often discussed and recognized as being an important part of the global warming process. The water vapour feedback process is most likely responsible for a doubling of the greenhouse effect when compared to the addition of carbon dioxide on its own.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Last weekend, there was barely a cloud visible across the CONUS (was 1 tiny spot of convection in southwestern TX I think)…What a difference a week makes. But there was smoke. Then the Alaska Snow/Low and the Tropics moved in.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago
Last edited 13 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
13 days ago

Sally will be bringing lots of rainfall to the northern gulf coast this week….more than likely there will be some flash flood warnings or flash flood emergencies issued in some counties or parishes….

comment image?1599936092

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Horrible.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

That Green and Blue in the NW, is a nice sight though. Much needed (grab the yellow highlighter please, but add zero lightning flashes or bolts), Thx.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago

Fanning and banding on T.S Sally looks of a storm that wants to come out of the Straits and explode. While rapid intensification is not now predicted in the intensity forecast of the NHC, most is 25mph increase in a 24 hour period, there is good chance rapid intensification does happen. Steady strengthening is expected for now per the NHC. Get ready for this intensity guidance to go up quite a bit imo. This spot, these conditions, peak season? We’ll be fortunate to have Sally not become a major hurricane.comment image

Last edited 13 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Terry
Terry
13 days ago

Quote ” bluegill
I usually don’t do the who!e “feelings” thing, but I got a feeling Sally is going to be a bad one.”

Noted.

Terry
Terry
13 days ago

hmm!

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terry
terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

looking forward to sunday’s updates

Josie
Josie
13 days ago

Thanks for yours job

Jerry
13 days ago

55 mph gust in Key Largo from my online weather station at my house.

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
13 days ago
Reply to  Jerry

that is windy!

Jerry
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

14.6 inches of rain since 6:30 AM which id crazy!

Jerry
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Weather station summary

Screenshot_20200912-130709_Tempest.jpg
Nrtiwlnvragn
13 days ago

Offshore Miami, Fowey Rock bouy

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Shira
Shira
13 days ago
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Shira

That NOAA buoy page says TD109, but the marker at 2:00PM off west coast of FL already says TS Sally has arrived!

Shira
Shira
13 days ago

Now has an H before landfall:

150118_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Shira

Another NHC page I just saw showed the H shortly after getting into the gulf. And it said updated.

Terry
Terry
13 days ago

particulate on its way north again!

smokey.png
Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Quote “FIUStormChaser

My explanation of the Brown Ocean Effect in a Graphic:

re -Thank you very much!

Fiu.jpg
Terry
Terry
13 days ago

Dang!

here we go.png
Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

slow n steady!

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

..

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Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

stall out once it hits land?

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NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

The L is just getting ready to exit the gulf side of F and out into the bathtub temp GOM waters. , and it id spinning up around that Low already. Slow growth my foot. Looks ready to explode and RI…Gulf coasters are you ready again?

Art
Art
13 days ago

comment image

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Art

:0

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
13 days ago

O.T.:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/toots-hibbert-maytals-dead-1053716/

Toots Hibbert, Reggae Pioneer Who Infused Genre With Soul, Dead at 77

Screenshot_2020-09-12 Toots Hibbert, Reggae Pioneer Who Infused Genre With Soul, Dead at 77.png
Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

RIP

O Smith
O Smith
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Another legend gone. I won’t forget his name (or his music).
-This getting old thing…. I don’t know….

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

RIP “Toots”…Covid is stealing us blind, taking a lot of love, lives, and talent with it. Mask up, get tested, distance responsibly, and be safe folks…please! Just DO IT..FOR ALL THE RIGHT REASONS!

The bars, restraunts, events, people, vacation spots, sports, rallies, education, parties, etc….Will still be there once we get through this. Now, assure you (And your loved ones), will be. By doing all the right things NOW.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago

BTW…Got a well PCR Covid-19 Tested today (all 3 of us in the household), since HS Teacher wifey (has been distanced teaching at home, since March to the end of May). Then again from late July from her classroom till now.

Monday she starts live face to face again with students 1/2, switching to other half every 2 days. Total will be about 150-175 Student/Staff contacts per week for her (plus all their contacts and shared air).

They advertised the PCR test free, antibodies test $50 bucks (with results in 24 hrs for that test), so I wanted both. The bad news…I would have to go to Phoenix to get that! (Not on your life…Maricopa Cnty. Is totally out of the question). BIIIG HOT SPOT!

So, they said they would arrange a local clinic to receive and administer it near me this next week. The PCR test was quick, non invasive, took mere seconds and zero discomfort.

At least we will all have a baseline test, with results promised before she is finished teaching face-to-face her first full week.

When, and if, it all blows up in the decision makers faces (though they are at least attempting to provide all the right protcols, required masking, daily temp checks, roving spot temp checks, 2 way halls, constant cleaning and disinfecting, etc.).

The shared AC/Cooling and Heating conditions are far from ideal, as it is hot or cold here, rarely in between like the last 5 days! Zero windows except in the main office, and all doors…all are sealed and leaves no windows to open. Exterior doors opening and closing due to 1 way hall traffic should help exchange some air i hope….and let some of the covid cooties out, should they invade.

Yes, I am a realist, am expecting those classrooms and halways to be like mini-restraunts/bars, hoping for the best, expecting the worst…Her father lives in our household (80’s plus, had a triple by-pass in Jan., and a pacemaker installed in April).

Personally, I left my home for the 3rd time in 6 long months today to get tested, all 3 trips were to a medical facility, and not on any of the 3 trips, did I even exit the car…I am not going to kill my f-in-l (after 30 plus years married to his daughter).

Sry about the book.

Terry
Terry
13 days ago

Just want to give a shout out to the MODS here! your work is greatly appreciated,

The last couple days I have been seeing multiple accounts probably by the same person trying to cause havoc, but it doesnt work, The MODS can see right through it and Will (KEEP) up the good work!

Terry
Terry
13 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Good watch! as reality kicks in ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY89JHubB5k

anon
anon
13 days ago

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/12/wildfires-democrats-climate-crisis

“As fires burn the west, top Democrats stay quiet on climate crisis”

It really goes to show that the Bloomberg wing of the Democratic Party, that pulled out all the stops to end Sanders’ campaign, and run a center right corporate pro fossil fuel candidate, is really another side of the tarnished coin of the 2 party system. People are much better off focusing their energies outside the US electoral system, imho, to try to solve the crisis.

Cheryl
Cheryl
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

Troll

anon
anon
13 days ago
Reply to  Cheryl

actually, its just an opinion on climate change – no need to resort to name calling. read the guardian, expressing my view – maybe doesn’t conform to the group think, but so what… interesting to see I got called a troll and downvoted for expressing an opinion. that’s the state of the US right now.

Cheryl
Cheryl
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

I am not speaking for this group. The G7 virtual Speakers’ Meeting is going on right now with Nancy Pelosi representing the US. Heavy emphasis on climate change. You should tune in.

anon
anon
13 days ago
Reply to  Cheryl

Thank you. I appreciate a real response instead of name calling. That is why ostensibly people come to engage on blogs – to learn and share ideas. I will check it out.

Cheryl
Cheryl
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

Another opinion piece that might interest you concerning Democrats and climate change.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/joe-biden-climate-plan-green-new-deal-1041741/

O Smith
O Smith
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

Understood what you say here. understand that the original post had the flavor of coming out swinging for the right. So you were called out for that. The tarnished coin does indeed have only 2 sides and I entirely agree that is an enormous problem. Under current admin we are going backwards over the waterfall.
And that’s MY opinion.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

I noticed you did not mention the 2 of Joey B’s ReichWingnutz PeePee/PR. Bois who were caught in the act of Looting Homes in The Oregon Fire Areas, chased down in a very dangerous and property damageing high speed chase, arrested and charged with looting homes of PEOPLE THAT HAD TO RUN FOR THEIR LIVES FROM FLAMES, outside Portland, and property looted from multiple homes, from multiple fire areas was recovered from them.

Disgusting is the only way to describe that criminal activity. I just hope the FBEYE tracks it back to the gang if it was an organized activity and RICO Charges are applied.

But, science believing is bad…lol. I will echo the “Troll” comment.

This wasn’t trolling, arrests are facts (looted property is evidence), and LOOTING IN FIRE ZONES IS SOME REALLY SICK STUFF.

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
13 days ago
Reply to  anon

Loved the ending…”53 DAYS TO SAVE THE EARTH” …and vote out the Science Deniers cult leadership. (Yes, I Read it…pullout of The Paris Accords in on November 4th).

Art
Art
13 days ago

Good morning!! TD19 sure is a slow mover.

Art
Art
13 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
14 days ago

comment image

NCHurricane2009
14 days ago

Just uploaded new charts & discussion at my infohurricanes site. Most pressing concerns are Paulette possibly hitting Bermuda by Monday as a strong or major hurricane, and TD 19 likely to become TS Sally as it affect the US Gulf coast. Future Sally could be a rain flood problem for Louisiana if it’s track does slow down like a lot of the models show.

accu35
accu35
14 days ago

Flood could be a problem east of Louisiana also alot

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago

The next level of tornado forecasting is seeing the couplets before they happen. Many forecasters can say I think that may go tornadic, and I’d imagine many could be very specific in which ones and why. In a business where every minute counts. After a weakening along the west coast of Florida, popcorn thunderstorms are showing up again. Not good. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago

Look at those waves from Paulette, forcing strong on TD-19. Center looks to be converging at the tip of Florida. LLC may miss most the coast. comment image

vis0
vis0
14 days ago

2nd cmmnt
still wrkd, was hoping in pop up clicking fwd/bck (next/previous img) could allow pin-point comparison of both radar imagery, it does.

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Last edited 14 days ago by vis0
vis0
vis0
14 days ago

tried two img if not next cmmnt.

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Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
14 days ago

Fire and fury, big oil and Saudi armaments, 40 years ago! Rock the Casbah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ9r8LMU9bQ&list=RDLhwk9PTPOpU&index=18

Last edited 14 days ago by Susan Anderson
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago

Laura worked with less. Hurriane Laura. Many shall wake up tomorrow quite surpirsed. Lake Charles, Louisana, they’ll tell ya; go if you need to. If only for a short time. Protect your life and take your pets. The satuation across the Southeast is unlike ever seen before. Go look at your trees tomorrow. Don’t get hit by them. Leave to see another day.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Goodnight YCC, I appreciate being here.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I do indeed call tornadoes at a lead time many minutes ahead of the SPC. My Wife is a Doctorate teacher. And if you know either of us, you know we lie not. She’d expound quite so I assure you. Also if you know me this is not my main area of expertise. Yet shouldn’t y’all invite me to work for free at least? I don’t think most know how funny I am in person. Come on now, you all know 2020 is ripe for it. Be kind, love those while you can, and ignore the noise of why we are suppose to hate each other so. Let’s do the opposite. To be able to say what I have tonight? Well thank you YCC. Thank you very much.

Cynthia White
Cynthia White
13 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I think you have a sense of humor.

O Smith
O Smith
13 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

you are over stating the situation. Calm down.