Satellite image of Beta
GeoColor satellite image of Tropical Storm Beta as of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, September 20, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Storm Beta was spreading heavy rains over coastal Texas and Louisiana on Sunday as it trekked slowly west-northwestward at less than 6 mph toward an expected landfall in Texas on Monday. Though not predicted to become a hurricane, Beta’s slow movement will make it  capable of bringing widespread torrential rains of a foot or more to the coast. These rains could make Beta a billion-dollar storm.

At 2 p.m. EDT Sunday, September 20, Beta was 140 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas, heading west-northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 996 mb. Heavy rains from Beta were affecting much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and the live storm surge tracker at Trabus Technologies showed Beta was bringing storm surge heights of two to four feet along the coast. The maximum storm surge heights observed as of 2 p.m. EDT Sunday were:

3.8 feet: Shell Beach, Louisiana (east-southeast of New Orleans);
3.1 feet: Rollover Pass, Texas (east of Houston); and
3.0 feet: Matagorda Bay, Texas (southwest of Houston).

Figure 1
Figure 1. Track forecasts out to seven days for Tropical Storm Beta from the 6Z and 12Z (2 a.m. and 8 a.m. EDT) Sunday, September 20, runs of the top forecast models. The official NHC forecast is the black line. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Satellite images showed Beta was fighting moderately high wind shear and dry air, which was keeping the southern portion of the circulation devoid of heavy thunderstorms.

Texas had its tenth warmest August on record, and as a result, ocean temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico are a very warm 29 – 30 Celsius (84 – 86°F), about 0.6 Celsius (1°F) above average. (Hurricane Hanna did pass over these waters before making landfall on July 25 in south Texas, causing some cooling of the waters, but the waters have had ample time to recover their heat since then.) Because of these very warm waters, Beta has an unusually high amount of moisture available to it for producing heavy rains.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Predicted four-day rainfall amounts from the 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Sunday, September 20, run of the experimental HAFS model. The model predicted that Beta would dump more than 10 inches of rain (yellow colors) along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Thursday morning, with one isolated area of 25+ inches (pink colors) near the Texas/Louisiana border. (Image credit: NOAA/AOML)

Forecast for Beta

Conditions for development are expected to be marginal through landfall, with moderately high wind shear of 15 – 20 knots and dry air continuing to hinder Beta.

The model consensus is that Beta will make landfall in Texas on Monday and penetrate inland about 50 miles by Tuesday, as the ridge of high pressure steering Beta weakens and puts the storm in an area of weak steering currents. A weak trough of low pressure to the north is then expected to take over steering Beta, inducing a slow east-northeast to northeast motion, roughly parallel to the coast.

Beta’s track during this period will likely be just inland, as predicted by the 0Z Sunday runs of the European and UKMET models and the official NHC forecast. However, if Beta’s track takes it back over water near the upper Texas coast, as the 6Z Sunday runs of the GFS model and experimental HAFS model predicted (Figure 2), Beta might rejuvenate and dump more heavy rains over coastal Texas and Louisiana before moving ashore over Louisiana later in the week.

Given its very slow motion and the very warm Gulf waters feeding it, Beta is expected to be a prodigious rainmaker, with some model forecasts predicting over a foot of rain along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. One concern is that some of the heaviest rains from Beta may occur from the flood-vulnerable Houston/Galveston area eastward to parts of southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles, areas recently slammed by Hurricane Laura.

Figure 3
Figure 3. GeoColor satellite image of Hurricane Teddy as of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, September 20. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Category 2 Teddy to brush Bermuda, then hit Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

At 2 p.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Teddy had top sustained winds of 105 mph and a central pressure of 964 mb. Teddy was headed northwest at 9 mph as a large hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds extending out up to 205 miles from the center. Teddy’s gigantic wind field has created waves 12 feet high spanning an area of ocean 1,070 miles across, with waves 40 feet high near the center.

Teddy’s large wind field is expected to expand and extend out up to 400 miles from the center by Tuesday. The hurricane has already generated big swells and dangerous surf conditions and riptides along the north coast of South America and the north-facing shores of the Caribbean islands and most of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will begin to affect other parts of the U.S. East Coast and the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Monday.

Forecast for Teddy

On Sunday, Teddy was moving over the cool water wake left behind by Hurricane Paulette, causing Teddy to weaken. A trough of low pressure to the north of Teddy was turning the hurricane northwards, and Teddy is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda Sunday night through Monday morning. The hurricane’s large size may allow Teddy to bring tropical storm-force winds to the island for several hours.

How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous

Once Teddy moves north of Bermuda, upper-level winds from the trough of low pressure steering the hurricane will create a high 25 – 45 knots of wind shear. This wind shear is likely to weaken Teddy, as will the cooler waters it will traverse once it moves north of the Gulf Stream, at the latitude of New Jersey. Even if Teddy’s winds decrease as expected, Teddy will maintain a very large wind field.

Forecast models strongly agree that Teddy will pass near or over northeastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday morning, with a second landfall in Newfoundland. Landfall in Nova Scotia will likely be as a strong extratropical storm with winds of 60 – 80 mph, with heavy rain and widespread gale-force winds likely the main threat. Teddy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm before the time of landfall, which will spread its impact out over a larger area.

Editor’s note: this post was updated at 2:15 p.m. EDT September 20, with information from the latest advisories.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 20, 2020 (1:19pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
55 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Dirk
Dirk
1 month ago

Thanks for the update Dr. Jeff.

Cynthia White
1 month ago

Deep Sea Rising, I happen like what you say😎

fyrebyrd042
fyrebyrd042
1 month ago

More likely than YCC being negligent is that there hasn’t been a moderator on recently, and/or they don’t understand your concern.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Though my poem seemed harsh below, it conveys my love of Christians and Scientists, many are both. Point being, we need not be divided over lies, I mean not AGW. We should unite behind those who have all our best interests in mind. Tear down the two party system that is the yoke around this Nations neck.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wyatt Washburn
Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago
A nearly stationary cold front extends from south of Naples
Florida to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
front. Strong to near gale NE and E winds will prevail N of the
front over the NE Gulf this morning, before diminishing to 20 to
25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N. 

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S
across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong
NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the
front. 
Art
Art
1 month ago

come on now..this is supposed to be a weather blog..please join in and keep it this way ok..talk weather

steele9000
steele9000
1 month ago

How it looks right now:

wilson-n-mobo-c.jpg
steele9000
steele9000
1 month ago
Reply to  steele9000
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  steele9000

Thx for the post! Check out the dust too.

dd.png
steele9000
steele9000
1 month ago

100,000 acre Bobcat Fire’s been beaten back from Mt. Wilson and its 9 telescopes, but it still rages north:
https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO/status/1307870182677774336?s=20

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  steele9000

100,000 acre fire gee…stay alert and safe out there

Stoopid1
Stoopid1
1 month ago

Remnants of Paulette starting to wrap convection around the center better now.

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Smoke moving north again 🙁

smoke on the way.png
Art
Art
1 month ago

very windy..comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago
FLZ050-220200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.WI.Y.0002.200921T1400Z-200922T0200Z/
Pinellas-
Including the cities of St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and Largo
312 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 20 mph increasing to around 30
  mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Pinellas County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous travel across the Skyway Bridge, especially
  for high profile vehicles. Gusty winds could blow around
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few
  power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of strongest winds will be late
  afternoon through early evening, especially across the southern
  half of the county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
GoodCheer
GoodCheer
1 month ago

In Halifax, NS, we spend the day picking things up and tying things down. We put the boat away this weekend, even though there should be some lovely weather yet this year. We’re really not used to wind from the forecast NE. I guess this will make Teddy a Nor’Easter, with teeth.

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  GoodCheer

stay safe down east!

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 15:00 PM JST September 21 2020
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (T2012)
================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (996 hPa) located at 25.1N 134.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Gale Force Winds
=================
130 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 26.8N 134.0E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
48 HRS: 29.6N 134.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
72 HRS: 33.3N 136.5E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan/ south of Mie Prefecture
96 HRS: 38.6N 138.0E – Extratropical Low in Sea of Japan / Niigata Prefecture

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2 – 12:00 PM JST September 21 2020
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (T2012)
================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (998 hPa) located at 24.9N 134.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Gale Force Winds
=================
130 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

Outer bands have pushed the dryest low level air west in Texas. This has slowed the entrainment of dry air and made the atmosphere a little less hostile for center refiring convection through d-max. Thankfully under ten hours left over water. Brightest yellow is the driest air. This was drapped across the entire eastern Texas coast two days ago. Massive entrainment happened, but the worst is over. No CDO would be great for Texas, hopefully d-max is a bad one for Tropical Storm Beta.comment image

Patrap
Patrap
1 month ago

Beta

07e3fd9588e7d86d84f9395052a7e1fa.jpg
Russell Mad Rand
Russell Mad Rand
1 month ago

Dodging more bullets, I see…..What do they call them- gully washers and frog chokers rains…..Waiting for the “cold weather” to arrive here in SoFlo- supposed to get below a thousand degrees here…..Even the iguanas are dying from the heat (I wish)….

Planing a trip to north Georgia w/ genius friends to visit other genius friends- record music and play a concert for the whole town- Michael has 120 acre horse ranch w/ full recording studio ( You Tube “Michael Cornett music”)…..There is also a vid. selling the ranch (Cornett Ranch), but his brother died before the cash windfall….Whitewater, etc…..I may have to come back for the County Commission meetings, as there are some serious issues that I need to deal with- including the “stalker charge” lodged by Dr. Jennifer Jurado against me. God, the more she hates me, the more I love her- AAAAAHHHGGGGG!!!!!…..

More importantly, there is a meeting w/ the City re: joint government campus. If Jennifer doesn’t drop the stalking charges and go w/ me on a “Magical Mystery Tour”, then the corruption and incompetence of the government will stumble forward into THEIR greedy hands and all will be lost.

Besides, I need her to speak at our “convention of weather nerds (etc.)” to be held at Yale in the upcoming future. My goal is to return to Trinity and finally get my BFA and BS in Enviro.- like 10 days before our 50th reunion, then go right into an MFA and MS in Enviro. from Yale……In return for a full scholarship, I will let them assist me in finding the largest meteorite ever recovered in Ct. I can (of course) teach all the classes, but I would love it if Jennifer taught at Trinity or Yale…..I would be enthralled if she just read the phone book!…

Love hurts….and heals……

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
1 month ago

I’m a half hour away, surely you can squeeze me in with a plus one. Genius is quite a thing, measuable, yet ever subjective to what passes as wisdom of the day. I find what people don’t know to be of more interest in 2020. There’s real genius in where we’re at, and the genius in it is what people don’t know. A real babbling circus may be bemusing for some, the cost is already high for all.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wyatt Washburn
Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Not to worry, Waterworld is comin!

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

ready, set, learn! worldwide !

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 9:00 AM JST September 21 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 24.9N 134.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 26.4N 133.9E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
48 HRS: 29.7N 134.0E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
72 HRS: 33.2N 135.6E – Extratropical Low in Sea South of Japan/ south of Wakayama Prefecture

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

goood luck up there be safe

Art
Art
1 month ago
2. A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central 
Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake 
Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some 
development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday 
or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable 
for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this 
disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

yeah winds are pretty strong here too

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary – 3:00 AM JST September 21 2020
================================================
Sea South of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 24.1N 134.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

—-
still no advisories from Japan on 14W

Tery
Tery
1 month ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

guessing north korea?

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

GOM….water vapor….

comment image?hash=36332

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test

G16_conus_band09_12fr_20200927-1326.gif
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
1 month ago

comment image Tropical Storm 14W (“MARCE”)

39189447.gif
Last edited 1 month ago by HadesGodWyvern
Art
Art
1 month ago

A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central
Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake
Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some
development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday
or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this
disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

&&

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

The one over FL right now….

sat_conuselcc_halfkm_color_20200920_1816.jpg
Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

yes and today MON even stronger wind gusts whewm sure would be nice if it cooled things down a bit

Art
Art
1 month ago

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS
REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 93.6W
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Peter
Peter
1 month ago
Reply to  Art

Got to love these future GFS runs!

Art
Art
1 month ago
Reply to  Peter

yes better yet when they dont verify later on lol

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

Art
Art
1 month ago

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

TCFP….next 48 hours….

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
26 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test
comment image?hash=60651

NSAlito
NSAlito
1 month ago

Is Beta a sort of Harvey lite?

OneDay
OneDay
1 month ago
Reply to  NSAlito

Allison lite

NSAlito
NSAlito
1 month ago
Reply to  OneDay

Ah, yes. Back when 40 inches of rain was considered absurd.
Ta.

Terry
Terry
1 month ago

Thank you very much for the updates on Beta! Looking forward to the next couple of posts on the tropics!

Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

westpac update

SS.png
Terry
Terry
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

atmospheric rivers galore!

carmot
1 month ago
Reply to  Terry

NIMBY! Yeah, no please.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
1 month ago

Thanks, Dr. Masters! It’s a shame that you weren’t able to get permission for the Galveston backyard picture that Mary Claire posted on WU a couple hours ago….really showed the story of storm surge….