Satellite image of storms
GeoColor visible satellite image of an Atlantic Ocean packed with five tropical cyclones at 10:20 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

On Monday, for just the second time on record, the Atlantic has five simultaneous hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions, as Hurricane Paulette, Hurricane Sally, Tropical Storm Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, and Tropical Depression Rene all roamed the waters.

Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach says the only other time five simultaneous tropical cyclones existed in the Atlantic was September 11-14, 1971. The record is six, set during the period September 11-12, 1971: Edith, Fern, Ginger, Unnamed, Heidi and Irene.

Just four days after the climatological midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season, we’ve had 20 named storms so far in 2020, an astounding level of activity. Only 2005 had more named storms during an entire season, with 28.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Sally at 12:04 p.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2020. Sally was in the process of closing off an eyewall, with the southern side still incomplete. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Sally intensifies into a dangerous hurricane

At 12:30 p.m. EDT Monday, September 14, Sally was centered 165 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi. Sally was a strengthening hurricane with 90 mph winds, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with a central pressure of 985 mb. Wind gusts as high as 66 mph were observed late Monday morning at the VK 786/Petronius (Chevron) oil rig offshore from Mobile, Alabama (elevation 53 feet).

Sally was bringing heavy rains to the Florida Panhandle and to the Alabama coast on Monday. On Sunday, Sally brought more than five inches of heavy rains to portions of the Florida west coast, after deluging the Florida Keys on Saturday with 11.36 inches at Key West and 11.99 inches at Lower Matecumbe Key.

Satellite and radar images showed a sharp increase in the intensity of Sally’s heavy thunderstorm activity on Monday morning, with the surface center of circulation reforming to the east under the most intense thunderstorms, allowing the storm to become vertically aligned. Moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots from upper-level winds out of the west continued to interfere with heavy thunderstorm formation on the west side of Sally’s circulation. However, radar imagery showed Sally in the process of closing off an eyewall, and once that process is complete, the wind shear will have less of an impact and more rapid intensification can occur.

Satellite imagery late Monday morning appeared to show a pattern called a Central Cold Cover (CCC), with a single large thunderstorm dominant. Typically, the huge thunderstorm when a CCC pattern is present is anchored to the arm of a low-level rain band some distance outside of the storm’s core; in that case, development is typically slowed until the large thunderstorm goes away (kudos to Boris Konon and Mark Lander for pointing this out). Usually, a storm is at an intensity of about 55 – 65 mph when a CCC occurs, though a CCC can happen at any stage of development. It is possible that this CCC structure may be able to slow Sally’s intensification.

Figure 2
Figure 2. GeoColor visible satellite image of Sally as of 8:50 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14. A single large thunderstorm was generating gravity waves, visible as ripples propagating out. This pattern, called a Central Cold Cover (CCC), typically results in a slowdown of intensification. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Forecast for Sally

The track forecast for Sally has more uncertainty than usual for a storm expected to make landfall in less than 48 hours. Sally is forecast to move in a general west-northwest motion at about 6 – 7 mph through Monday night. Steering currents will weaken by Monday night, causing a slowdown of Sally’s forward speed to 5 mph or less, as the storm begins to feel the influence of a strong band of upper-level west-southwesterly winds over the southern U.S.

A weakness in the ridge of high-pressure steering Sally should allow the storm to turn north by Tuesday morning, when Sally will be very close to the coast. The timing of this turn will strongly depend upon how quickly Sally organizes and intensifies. A stronger storm will be affected more by the upper-level winds, which are blowing from the west, forcing a quicker turn to the right and resulting in a landfall in Mississippi or Alabama. A slower-organizing storm is more likely to make landfall in Louisiana, at a lower intensity. With Sally now a hurricane, a turn more to the right and landfall in Mississippi or Alabama appears most likely.

Wind shear may decrease to around 10 knots by Monday night, which will potentially allow Sally to completely close off a center and finish building an eyewall. The air mass surrounding Sally is reasonably moist, with a mid-level relative humidity around 65%, so dry air is unlikely to be a major hindrance to this process.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Track forecast for Sally from the 6Z Monday, September 14, run of the GFS ensemble forecast. The black line is the mean forecast from the 21 member forecasts. The thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from the individual members predicted a variety of possible landfall locations, with a stronger storm likely to move ashore farther to the east. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

By Tuesday morning, wind shear is expected to tick up a notch, to around 20 – 25 knots, which may slow or halt the intensification process. This shear will be caused by the strong band of upper-level westerly winds helping steer Sally more to the right, as mentioned above. This band of winds will also ventilate Sally, though, providing an upper-level outflow channel capable of aiding intensification.

Sally will be over the very warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are around 29.5°C (85°F). There is plenty of heat energy in the ocean waters Sally will be traversing to support rapid intensification, as the storm should remain just northeast of a cool eddy with low oceanic heat content over the southeast Gulf.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Predicted landfall wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) from the 6Z Monday, September 14, run of the HWRF model. This model had the strongest landfall forecast of any of our top intensity models from Monday morning, predicting that Sally would hit Mississippi near 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday as a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

How much Sally strengthens will depend in large part on how quickly it closes off an eye; a period of rapid intensification cannot be ruled out if the storm organizes quickly enough. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model gave a 16% chance that Sally would rapidly intensify by 30 mph in a 24-hour period, and an 11% chance it would intensify by 50 mph in 36 hours. Sally was just shy of meeting that 16% chance of intensifying 30 mph in 24 hours, since it intensified by 25 mph between 8 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. EDT Monday.

The official forecast calls for Sally to peak as a category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph, but it could reach category 3 hurricane strength with 115 mph winds if it manages to close off a complete eyewall by Tuesday morning.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Rainfall forecast for the five days from 2 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, to 8 a.m. EDT September 19. Rainfall amounts in excess of 15 inches (pink colors) were predicted along the Gulf Coast to the east of where Sally makes landfall. (Image credit: NOAANHC)

Rainfall and storm surge: two major concerns with Sally

Regardless of its landfall intensity, the primary damage from Sally is likely to result from the slow-moving storm’s torrential rains. Sally is expected to move at 6 mph or less through Thursday, leading to rainfall measurements in feet rather than in inches. Models suggest that localized totals in excess of two feet are possible. A larger corridor of 8-16 inches can be expected near the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle.

Storm surge is also a major concern, with up to 11 feet of surge predicted along the east side of New Orleans. As discussed in Sunday’s post, New Orleans’ rebuilt levee system has proven it can handle storm surge flooding of at least 17 feet, the peak level of storm surge flooding observed during Hurricane Isaac in August 2012. However, many areas outside this levee system are not as well fortified and suffered destructive storm surge flooding during Isaac. Sally is likely to produce a prolonged and dangerous storm surge from Monday into Wednesday across far southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and far western Florida.

Trabus Technologies maintains a live storm surge tracker for Sally. As of 3 p.m. EDT Monday, the peak surges measured at NOAA tide gauges from Sally were:

3.2 feet at Shell Beach, Louisiana (southeast of New Orleans)
2.7 feet at Apalachicola, Florida
2.6 feet at Waveland, Mississippi
2.4 feet at Panama City Beach, Florida
2.3 feet at Cedar Key, Florida

Figure 6
Figure 6. Radar image of Paulette at 12:55 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, before an island-wide power outage disrupted transmission of further imagery. (Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service)

Paulette makes a direct hit on Bermuda

Hurricane Paulette made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda early Monday morning, with its 40-mile-wide eye encompassing almost the entire island at 5 a.m. EDT. At landfall, Paulette was a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The hurricane’s winds increased to 90 mph while Bermuda was in the eye; at 9 a.m. EDT, when the rear eyewall was pounding the island, NHC upgraded Paulette to a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.

An island-wide outage knocked out power to 20,000 customers on Bermuda at approximately 1 a.m. EDT, but the Government of Bermuda reported via Twitter at 8 a.m. that the island had experienced “no major issues” during passage of the front eyewall of Paulette. With its years of hurricane experience, Bermuda is well-fortified against storms such as Paulette.

Peak winds reported by the Bermuda airport during passage of Paulette were 55 mph, gusting to 89 mph, but the station did not report a 4 a.m. EDT observation, when the most intense part of Paulette’s eyewall was overhead. Between 2 – 3 a.m. EDT, an observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda reported sustained winds of 62 mph, with gusts up to 96 mph. A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda, reported a sustained wind of 80 mph and a gust to 107 mph around 10 a.m. EDT.

With conditions for intensification favorable, Paulette is expected to become a high-end category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on Tuesday, becoming the Atlantic’s second major hurricane of 2020. Increased wind shear and cooler waters will begin a weakening trend on Wednesday. (Note that by the time the hyperactive 2005 season got to the “P” storm, Philippe, that season had already produced four major hurricanes.)

Figure 7
Figure 7. Infrared satellite image of the island of Bermuda almost entirely in the large 40-mile-diameter eye of Hurricane Paulette at 4:50 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Depression Rene just hanging on

Far to the southeast of Paulette, slow-moving Tropical Depression Rene was on its last legs Monday. Top sustained winds were a mere 30 mph, and strong wind shear was pushing dry air into the tiny system. Rene will likely become a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Teddy forms in the central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Teddy, which formed in the central Atlantic on Monday morning, was headed west at 14 mph at 11 a.m. EDT Monday with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Teddy is expected to turn to the northwest on Wednesday, well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Conditions for intensification will be very favorable late this week, and Teddy is predicted to be a major hurricane by Friday. Bermuda and Newfoundland, Canada, may potentially be at risk from Teddy.

Tropical Storm Vicky forms in the Eastern Atlantic

Tropical Storm Vicky formed in the eastern Atlantic at 11 a.m. EDT Monday, about 350 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Vicky was headed northwest at 6 mph, with top sustained winds of 45 mph. Vicky will have favorable conditions for development through Monday night, with sea surface temperatures near 26.5 Celsius (80°F), moderate to high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots, and a moist atmosphere. However, wind shear is predicted to rise to a prohibitively high 40 – 60 knots Tuesday through Wednesday, destroying Vicky by Thursday. Vicky is not a threat to any land areas.

Another tropical wave coming off coast of Africa has potential to develop

A new tropical wave, emerging from the coast of Africa on Monday, has some modest model support for development late in the week as it moves west at about 10 mph. Two of the 51 members of the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast showed this system would develop into a tropical storm that would reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday, September 22.

In its 2 p.m. Monday EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 20% and 50%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Wilfred — the last name on the list.

Keeping an eye on Gulf of Mexico disturbance

NHC on Monday was monitoring an area of interest over the western Gulf of Mexico producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while this system moves southwestward at 5 – 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico this week.

Dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, however, is likely to inhibit its development, as will wind shear. In its 2 p.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

The 2020 parade of record-early named storms continues

Teddy’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its nineteenth tropical storm, topping the record held by an unnamed storm from October 4, 2005, which was classified after the season was over. Vicky’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its twentieth tropical storm, topping the record held by Tammy from October 5, 2005.

PHOTOHow to prepare for a hurricane

With the Atlantic hurricane season just four days past the climatological half-way point, we’ve already had 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. Only two Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851 have had that many named storms during an entire season. The record was 28 named storms in 2005, followed by 1933, with 20 named storms. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are seven named storms, three hurricanes, and 1.5 intense hurricanes.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 14, 2020 (2:39pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
11 days ago

😮

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Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
11 days ago

gm

bandicam 2020-09-15 08-00-44-728.gif
Terry
Terry
11 days ago

here we go

power up.png
Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

on the way to Guangdong? maybe zhuhai?

go after guangdong!.png
Art
Art
11 days ago

is there any chance Sally runs right thru Mobile ALA?

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

. good point

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Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

As the climate changes, the risks may increase. So Owren says it’s important to consider how extreme weather affects gender-based violence – especially when preparing disaster plans and policies
thx YCC!

Amature Met
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

If this climate change is real. Then this is the least of our worries. I evacuated with my family to a shelter in Gainesville fl.

  1. I am white.
  2. A white man shot me so he could rob me.
  3. Beat my 8 month pregnant wife with twins. She delivered then and there.
  4. Then he went outside and stole our car.
  5. Then he took our car with keys, drove to our house and emptied it.
  6. Police saw everything including the shooting.
  7. Police did not so much as stop him from beating my wife AS she was delivering.
  8. Police response. We are under orders to arrest no one for anything less than capital murder.

Gender based violence eff that! how about all violence!

This was also about one tine nation way in the south pacific. Vanuatu They have gender based violence all the time. Social norms are way different.

Not a fair comparison to a country of 370 million.

Tabludama
Tabludama
11 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Got a link to the news story. Surely this made the local news.

BTW, which hurricane?

QuantumOverlord
QuantumOverlord
12 days ago

Is this where the wunderground tropical community lives now?

Anyway medicane seems to be spinning up in the gulf of Sidra. Should be an interesting watch along with that NE atlantic low which also seems to want to go tropical over the next few days.

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

yes also on the old blog too. here is the link .https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 15:00 PM JST September 15 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
================================================
west of Occidental Mindoro (Luzon region/Philippines)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.3N 120.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 13.4N 118.1E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.4N 114.8E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.7N 108.8E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea


first advisory from JMA

..on its way to Vietnam as a tropical storm

Last edited 12 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
12 days ago

I’d be cool if this site could include a ‘floater’ link to the latest satellite loop showing whatever storm the article is covering. It could auto-load, or have to be clicked on.
After the article is archived, a gif could be made of it, or the link could just be deleted.

Last edited 12 days ago by PartyLikeSpock
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
12 days ago

At 10:00 AM today, the Low Pressure Area was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Magsaysay, Occidental Mindoro (12.3N, 121.2E). It is moving generally westward towards Mindoro Strait and may pass near or over the Calamian Island in the next 12 hours. This weather disturbance is forecast to develop into Tropical Depression “LEON” within the next 24 hours. Due to its proximity to land, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 may still be raised over portions of MIMAROPA due to strong to near-gale force winds once this weather disturbance becomes a tropical depression. Rainfall Forecast: Today through tomorrow morning Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to this weather disturbance.

forecast to develop in the South China Sea.

Screenshot_2020-09-15 wp9020 gif (GIF Image, 1288 × 944 pixels) - Scaled (96%).png
Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

ready set learn. active season or changing climate?

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

powerful storm

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
12 days ago

If you load a satellite loop at the following link, you can see loads of ‘gravity waves’ coming from Sally, mostly visible to its west. Wouldn’t these sap energy from the storm? They at least may indicate that the center is less organized than ideal for strengthening. (?)
There is also a big upper-level surge west of center due to the latest big storm-wide thunderstorm blow-up.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband08.html

Last edited 12 days ago by PartyLikeSpock
Smarie
Smarie
12 days ago

What are the odds Mobile gets spared?

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
12 days ago
Reply to  Smarie

Approaching 0% at this point.

MusicLover1
MusicLover1
12 days ago

Thrilled to have found your blog again! Followed you for years at WU.

Sabine
12 days ago
Reply to  MusicLover1

Same here

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

Hurricane Hunters found the eyewall open on the south side. NHC says likely due to.dry air entrainment. Also helps explain the asymmetrical appearance on satellite and radar.

NCHurricane2009
12 days ago

My latest action-packed birdseye view chart and post for the Atlantic tropics now up at this link, which includes information on Hurricane Sally and the other four named storms out in the Atlantic basin (albiet Rene was recently downgraded to a remnant low at 5 PM this afternoon). Also discuss the wave behind Rene and Vicky offshore of western Africa as well as the disturbance lingering in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next to Sally.

NCHurricane2009
12 days ago
Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

Radar presentation depicts a slightly stretched circulation…at least temporarily.

Last edited 12 days ago by Barfolomew
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
12 days ago

Upper level winds pushing from the west against the mid and lower level winds currently……Sally appears to be stalling some…..

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Skyepony
12 days ago
Last edited 12 days ago by Skyepony (mod)
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
12 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Only 2 hour loop Skye….

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ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
12 days ago

Sally….

comment image?hash=35376

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

“Weird” (or at least weird to me) storm motions via New Orleans and Mobile radars. Main rain shield erodes abruptly in northwest quad. just beyond that, storms track appears almost linear from northeast to southwest where you would expect them to re-curve relative to Sally’s center (also apparent on radar). Wish I could post a loop here to show what I am talking about.

Last edited 12 days ago by Barfolomew
Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

who are u

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago
Reply to  Terry

The ghost of William Ferrel

Last edited 12 days ago by Barfolomew
Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

how was the drive home last night

Louisianalegend65
Louisianalegend65
12 days ago

Hey yall! I finally made it to this blog

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

sweet

accu35
accu35
12 days ago

This place is dead, this place use to be jumping.

Dirk
Dirk
12 days ago
Reply to  accu35

Not dead just a bit more quiet.

Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  Dirk

yes its perfect as is

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago
Reply to  accu35

“Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded”.

Florida Birdy
Florida Birdy
12 days ago
Reply to  accu35

It’s not dead in here I read everything you all discuss as do others, I don’t know how I would handle a hurricane season without all of you and Jeff & Bob. Thank you

Justabitowind
Justabitowind
11 days ago
Reply to  accu35

give it time. in a few years you will be an oldtimer and the folk
s from WU will be here.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

Wow, after some REALLY impressive convection earlier today, Sally certainly appears to be changing quickly this evening in satellite imagery. Is dry air being pulled into the storm resulting in an almost extratropical appearance?

Steve S
Steve S
12 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

Seeing that too. So glad. It has nearly been stalled out in the last 3 hrs.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

Hi all. Been “a while” since Laura.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

Someone who conversed here a lot with many others last month. Does that help?

Dirk
Dirk
12 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

Welcome back then. 🙂

Art
Art
12 days ago

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

…OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI…155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago

go time as darkness falls
comment image?w=600&h

Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Yes Sir! Get that chair set up and ready for the show! here we go!

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Cynthia White
Cynthia White
12 days ago
Reply to  Terry

It looks like a duck, if you ask me

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Cynthia White

lol! good eye wow!

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

yup

winding up.png
Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

time stamped 9/15/202

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

2020

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Cat4 was i right?

Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

okay… what u just posted is scary!

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Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

cat 4?

Huracan del Caribe
Huracan del Caribe
12 days ago

If you look at the satellite picture only 3 systems are worth mentioning, the other ones are just swirls

Last edited 12 days ago by Huracan del Caribe
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
12 days ago

Donald Trump on the West Fires today, “It’ll get cooler, just you watch”. Evil mocking at the loudest levels possible. No one in our Nation should be okay with any of this.

Shira
Shira
12 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

He also said this: “Trees only live about 18 months before they dry out and explode. And leaves just lay there on the ground for years, like matchsticks.”

Amature Met
12 days ago
Reply to  Shira

He did not say that.

This is what he said.

“When trees fall down after a short period of time they become very dry — really like a matchstick… and they can explode. Also leaves,” Trump said

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/california-wildfires-management-trump-newsom-b439409.html

Context,

They were talking about forest management or the lack there of. 

Gee you want to knock the guy ok. He gives you ample opportunity so at least get it correct. No need to distort

Deano
Deano
12 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Dump D Drumpf.

Shira
Shira
12 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Thanks for the clarification. It’s just he is capable of saying something as asinine as that.

Deano
Deano
12 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

I agree. he’s plenty distorted.

Shira
Shira
12 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

I do believe he actually did say this, “You go to Europe… They’re very, very strong on management, and they don’t have a problem. They really don’t have, with, as they say, more explosive trees than we have in California.”

Justabitowind
Justabitowind
11 days ago
Reply to  Shira

do i need a class III to own an explosive tree?

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

climate change is real

Dirk
Dirk
12 days ago
Reply to  Shira

Yes he did say that. Just imagine .

Deano
Deano
12 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Don’t worry, most decent people feel and share your rage. I hope a jail bar future is in the works for him, Can always hope. He is a Despotic POS in the worst way. Stupid as well. His niece ought to be on more talk shows.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

A regular Al Roker, Trump is. “It’ll get cooler, just you watch”. Yep, it’s called winter. It’s bound to show up at some point.

Victor H. Valenzuela, PhD
Victor H. Valenzuela, PhD
12 days ago

Climate deniers are so wrong their ignorance is pitiful. Climate changes regardless of decade or century. The world will heat, and it will cool no matter what we do. We need to appreciate nature for providing humanity a zone where we can survive and thrive to the best of our abilities. Thanks to the NHC and NOAA for providing timely information to plan accordingly.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
12 days ago

I am starting to get the feeling that nature’s intent was to get us right where it wanted us, then… BAM!

Amature Met
12 days ago
Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the 
favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind 
shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening 
tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of 
Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength.  On 
Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in 
southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential 
for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf 
waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification 
process.

From the NHC. Note the likely Cat 3. Will this go over NO or just miss it. Filling in the w side now.

Last edited 12 days ago by Amature Met
White Rabbit
White Rabbit
12 days ago

I am really thankful for the NHC and our public servants in general whether they be public health, police, public safety, disaster management, etc. I’d say more, but it’s not the time.

Anyway, just got my latest hurricane warning on my phone from the NHC. It ended with ‘FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.’ Kind of sad that they have to say that….

Amature Met
12 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

Notice the 100 mph winds, and dropping pressure. Bad new for sure. Rain by the foot? Close to or over NO. I feel like we are being told something and just not listing or possibly understanding. I see us moving away from oil rather quickley.

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Tom S
Tom S
12 days ago

Of course it is dangerous, but its the least dangerous classification of Hurricane that is possible. Why pretend it’s something bigger?

Last edited 12 days ago by Tom S
T B
T B
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

The category rating only depends on wind speed and doesn’t take into account rain and/or surge which seem to be the bigger issues for this storm considering how slowly it is moving.

Tom S
Tom S
11 days ago
Reply to  T B

I get it and you have a very good point, but we have had days of warnings and no one has any excuse for getting caught up in this thing. Those areas are no stranger to high rains, whether from hurricanes or other systems. Anyone in danger chooses to be there. I would argue that the storm is not particularly dangerous – A cat 1,2 with lots of rain. The 2016 Baton Rouge storm was a lot more dangerous because there was no warning. We’ve known about this developing situation for at least 5 days.

Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

slow moving .

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Amature Met
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

It is now 100 mph winds and pressure dropping. Not the best place to be making landfall either.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

Far more people die due to surge/flooding than wind. In fact, if you add up all the deaths from Tropical Storms vs. Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, I’m guessing you might be surprised. Lots of people die, particularly south of the US border with Mexico, in Tropical Storms.

Last edited 12 days ago by White Rabbit
jazz_chi
jazz_chi
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

Allison was “only a tropical storm”. Agnes was “only a Cat 1”. Heck, Sandy wasn’t even a tropical system! Why bother?

Tom S
Tom S
11 days ago
Reply to  jazz_chi

I was on Long Island for Hurricane Irene (just before Sandy). We clocked a wind of 18 mph at Port Jefferson. They made us pull all the boats out of the marinas. Crazy. Its all about the maintenance and standards of the infrastructure. Sandy wouldn’t amounted to anything on the Gulf Coast, but it definitely did a number on NJ.

Leilaf
Leilaf
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

Just curious. Have you ever sat through a cat 1 in your house?

Tom S
Tom S
11 days ago
Reply to  Leilaf

At least 5 but I would have to really sit down and count them. I was in Allison when I was in Houston and the 2016 flood in Baton Rouge were probably the worst. They weren’t hurricanes. I’m smart enough to leave for Cat3 storms and higher (I don’t care for the south when there is no air conditioning at night)…and I know better than to stick around low areas when high rain levels are predicted. The headline ought to read ‘ Low category hurricane Sally is very dangerous to stupid people’. There really is no excuse when there is so much warning and preparations for these storms. I know a guy that sat through Laura in a plant reinforced control room. The wind guage blew off at 140mph. He said he was safe but he won’t do that again. An aquaintance sat through Laura in his house SW of Lake Charles. I think he saw God, because he swears that he will never stay for anything beyond a Tropical Storm. He said the noise was incredible.

serialteg (PackerFan)
12 days ago
Reply to  Tom S

You’re clearly new here (or just a troll)

Tom S
Tom S
11 days ago

New would be the answer. I get sick and tired of every event being a major one. Sometimes they are what they are. – another storm. They aren’t all special.

Henry Coe
Henry Coe
12 days ago

Radar makes me think she is about to slow and/or shift to a more northerly track.

Cortney Miller
Cortney Miller
12 days ago

Anyone know where everyone from cat 6 blog went? Is there a new place to go

jazz_chi
jazz_chi
12 days ago
Reply to  Cortney Miller

Most are still there: https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/

There’s also a Discord server, but that is unbelievably chaotic.

Dirk
Dirk
12 days ago

Thaks for the update Dr.Jeff and Bob Henson.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago

my next new gaming system when I upgrade my dual monitor corsair gaming tower that i have had since 2011

maybe in 2021

refresh too see

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

You will look like the fat Captain of the Ship in the movie Wall-e! In that scorpion chair gaming…Needs Cheetos cabinet and an energy drink cooler added! (Just for truth to power and full realism).

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago

it would look slick in the corner in my unit to finish up the last 8 years of work from home in

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

I am far from fat let me tell ya

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Me too, but would soon baloon if I had that chair.

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

lol! ya it looks super relaxing, but i might want to hook up VR helmet!

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
12 days ago

https://www.wyff4.com/weather/radar#

Set for past…watch, then set for future…watch again.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=19L&product=ir-dvorak

If you were looking at the Dvorak above, and were in the FL panhandle of Pensacola or Tallahassee you may be escaping for higher ground right now. And that could be very misleading IMHO.

Last edited 12 days ago by NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
12 days ago

Very different presentations from Sat. views and radar views. As far as direction of movement. The radar view shows more, while the satellite views seem to show nothing but Very Soon to be Doom! Pull back the covers, because that towering blanket of convection is massively huge looking.

Peter
Peter
12 days ago

Thanks for the update

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

Thanks Susan Anderson

b4bf63d8d30b797f8823e08a23d40c0fb7396509792ee1daf5a10bac54502154.jpg
NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
12 days ago

That is one very ominously amazing sat. view pic of 5 simultaneous P, R, S, T, and V storms in the Atlantic/Gulf Basin. (Even if they were only the active global storms at the moment…), but then realizing they are not the only active storms globally…2020 is very active. Stay safe everyone. Thank you Dr’s!

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

west pac

yup.png
Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  Terry

faster n faster

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Windsmurf
Windsmurf
12 days ago

You are doing great young man

Kevin
12 days ago

Thanks for the rapid analysis on this explosive situation. I’m sharing this on Facebook immediately.

James MacKay
James MacKay
12 days ago

Looks like an eye is forming just south of Pensacola–well east of the projected track.

surfdog pr
surfdog pr
12 days ago

thanks dr masters hope you had a good birthday

serialteg (PackerFan)
12 days ago
Reply to  surfdog pr

His birthday is today? Mine is

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
12 days ago

Thanks Dr. Masters. Dangerous Flood situation not just with surge but with rainfall and slow movement, hoping for the best for all.

Terry
Terry
12 days ago

Thank you very much for the updates!

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago

comment image?w=600&h=317

Terry
Terry
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

ballin

Bruce Wright
Bruce Wright
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

yikes

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

that face, reminds me of something in a old renaissance painting, I want to say angelic but doesn’t really apply to hurricanes does it.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
12 days ago
Reply to  Sunrisemama

storm archangel

SMR
SMR
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

That looks like some major drifting to the NNW?! I don’t see much westerly motion on this. Is it just WV going a different direction that the LLC?

T B
T B
12 days ago
Reply to  SMR

I think it’s just expanding. On radar it hardly looks like the center is moving at all.

Ineluki
Ineluki
12 days ago
Reply to  SMR

Being fooled by the storm expanding in that quadrant. Happens all the time.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
12 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Storm goes northeast, Predictors say it’s going west……..