Satellite image of TS Sally
GeoColor visible satellite image of Sally as of 12:10 p.m. EDT Sunday, September 13, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Storm Sally is intensifying as it heads for landfall in Louisiana, with landfall as a hurricane expected Monday night or Tuesday morning. Sally is predicted to bring a storm surge as high as 11 feet along the east side of New Orleans, but fortunately, the city’s rebuilt levee system has shown it can withstand a storm surge of at least 17 feet. Sally will be moving very slowly for multiple days around the time of landfall, which will contribute to a high storm surge and cause dangerous heavy rains of more than 10 inches along the coast.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Sally from the Key West radar. (Image credit: Weather Underground, an IBM company)

Heavy rain observed in the Florida Keys

On Saturday, Sally deluged the Florida Keys with exceptionally heavy rains. Key West, Florida, picked up 9.37 inches of rainfall from Sally on Saturday – its heaviest one-day September rainfall event ever recorded. A remarkable 3.95 inches fell in just one hour, ending at 9:53 p.m. EDT. This is a very extreme rainfall rate, one rarely seen outside of the eyewall of a mature hurricane.

According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, only once since 1947 has Key West measured more rain in an one-hour period: 4.50 inches on November 11, 1980. The flooding rains from Sally resulted in numerous street closures and several stalled cars.

Marathon, Florida, recorded 8.13 inches of rainfall from Sally on Saturday, also setting a new September daily rainfall record.

Sally is intensifying

At 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, September 13, Sally was centered 135 miles west of St. Petersburg, Florida. A strengthening tropical storm with 60 mph winds, moving west-northwest at 12 mph and a central pressure of 998 mb, Sally was bringing heavy rains to western Florida. Satellite and radar images showed a steady increase in the organization and intensity of Sally’s heavy thunderstorm activity on Sunday morning, though moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots caused by upper-level winds out of the northwest was keeping the northwest side of Sally’s circulation devoid of heavy thunderstorms.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Storm Sally at 11:28 a.m. EDT Sunday, September 13, 2020. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Forecast for Sally

Sally is forecast to move in a general west-northwest motion toward the central Gulf Coast through Monday. Steering currents will weaken by Sunday night, as Sally begins to feel the influence of a strong band of upper-level west-southwesterly winds over the southern U.S., causing a slowdown to Sally’s forward speed of about 5 mph by Monday. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Sally should allow the storm to turn north on Monday, near the time of landfall.

Sally is currently tilted with height as a result of the wind shear affecting it. The shear is expected to decrease to around 10 knots by Sunday night, which will potentially allow Sally to get vertically aligned, close off a center, and begin building an eyewall. The air mass surrounding Sally is reasonably moist, with a mid-level relative humidity around 65%, so dry air is unlikely to be a major hindrance to this process.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Track forecast for Sally from the 6Z Sunday run of the GFS ensemble forecast. The black line is the mean forecast from the 21 member forecasts. The thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from the individual members predicted a variety of possible landfall locations, with a stronger storm likely to move ashore farther to the east. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

By late Monday and into Tuesday, wind shear is expected to tick up a notch, to around 20 knots, which may slow the intensification process. This shear will be caused by the strong band of upper-level west-southwesterly winds over the southern U.S. as mentioned above. This band of winds will also ventilate Sally, though, providing an upper-level outflow channel capable of aiding rapid intensification.

A similar situation had existed during Hurricane Laura when it approached landfall in southwest Louisiana in August: a strong band of upper-level winds to the north of the hurricane helped it to explosively deepen to a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. But during the final six hours before landfall, those upper-level winds caused high wind shear over Laura, halting the intensification process.

Sally will be over the very warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are around 29.5°C (85°F). There is plenty of heat energy in the ocean waters Sally will be traversing to support rapid intensification, as the storm should remain just northeast of a cool eddy with low oceanic heat content over the southeast Gulf.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Predicted landfall wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) from two consecutive runs of the HWRF model. The forecast from 0Z Sunday, September 13 (left) predicted that Sally would be a dangerous category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds over New Orleans, but the forecast made just six hours later, at 6Z Sunday, predicted a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

How much Sally strengthens will depend in large part on how quickly it develops a vertically aligned inner core. A period of rapid intensification cannot be ruled out if the storm organizes quickly enough. The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model gave an 18% chance that Sally would rapidly intensify by 30 mph in a 24-hour period, and a 12% chance it would intensify by 50 mph in 36 hours. However, the HWRF model, which on multiple runs Saturday through 0Z Sunday was predicting that Sally would become vertically aligned on Sunday and rapidly intensity into a category 3 hurricane, backed off that forecast in its 6Z Sunday run. That run predicted Sally would be a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall (Figure 4).

The 18Z Sunday run of the HWRF model will be telling, since it will be the first run that will have the advantage of ingesting real-time Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft, which began its first mission in Sally late Sunday morning. The NOAA jet is also flying its first dropsonde mission in Sally on Sunday, and data from that mission will be available for the 0Z Monday suite of model runs.

The official forecast calls for Sally to approach Louisiana as a borderline category 1 or category 2 hurricane with winds of at least 90 mph, but the uncertainty in landfall intensity is large, with Sally likely to range between a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a high-end category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Rainfall forecast for the five days from 2 a.m. EDT Sunday, September 13, 2020, to September 18. Rainfall amounts in excess of 10″ (red colors) were predicted along the Gulf Coast to the east of where Sally makes landfall. (Image credit: NOAANHC)

One serious concern involves Sally’s extended period of torrential rain along the central Gulf Coast, a result of the storm’s expected slow movement of less than 7 mph on Monday through Wednesday. Models suggest that localized totals of up to 20 inches are possible. A larger corridor of 6-12 inches can be expected near the coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. After landfall, the system may linger near the coast for another day or more, adding to the rainfall totals.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Predicted coastal inundation from Sally’s storm surge, from the 11 a.m. EDT Sunday NHC advisory. (Image credit: NOAA/NHC)

New Orleans’ rebuilt levee system can take at least a 17-foot storm surge

The type of west-northwest track predicted for Sally is especially favorable for driving storm surge into the coast of southeast Louisiana. The amount of surge will depend on how quickly Sally strengthens, the exact track it takes, and the eventual size of its wind field. Adding to the mix is the unfortunate timing that the new moon arrives on Thursday, September 17, bringing some the highest tides of the year this week – the king tides.

The 11 a.m. EDT Sunday storm surge forecast from NHC called for the highest inundations for Sally’s storm surge to reach 7 – 11 feet along the east side of New Orleans. New Orleans’ rebuilt levee system has proven it can handle storm surge flooding of this magnitude – though locations outside the levee system will see highly destructive flooding, perhaps affecting large numbers of people in parishes outside of New Orleans.

Figure 7
Figure 7. Estimated maximum storm surge during Hurricane Isaac of 2012, from the ADCIRC storm surge model. Isaac brought a storm surge of approximately 15 feet to the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. (Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

In the wake of catastrophic Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the levee system protecting New Orleans received a $14.6 billion upgrade. The new Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System was designed to withstand a “100-year storm,” or a storm that has a 1% chance of occurring each year – thought to be a category 3 hurricane.

The system’s first real test came with Hurricane Isaac of August 2012, which made landfall in southeast Louisiana near the mouth of the Mississippi River as a category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Isaac dumped widespread rainfall amounts of 8 – 12 inches over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and brought a storm surge of 8 – 17 feet to Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish and St. Bernard Parish. Isaac killed five in the U.S, and caused damages estimated at $3.1 billion (2012 dollars), making it the most damaging hurricane on record to not get its name retired.

Isaac was an unusually large and slow-moving hurricane, which allowed it to pile up a much larger storm surge than is typical for a category 1 storm. As Isaac approached landfall, the storm’s tropical storm-force winds extended up to 205 miles out from the center; the most recent NHC forecast for Sally at landfall calls for the tropical storm-force winds to extend out 115 miles from the center. Isaac approached the coast at approximately 8 mph, became stationary for several hours near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and then proceeded to make landfall moving forward at approximately 6 mph. Sally could similarly slow or stall near the time of landfall.

As a result of its large size and slow movement, Isaac produced tropical storm-force winds along the New Orleans levee system for up to 45 hours; Katrina did so for less than half that long, about 21 hours. The new levee system successfully protected the city from Isaac’s storm surge, with no overtopping of any of the system’s defenses.

A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers study found that approximately 1% of the old levee system would have been overtopped by Isaac’s surge, and that the surge from Isaac was approximately 15 feet along a large section of the new levee system (Figure 7). According to the Louisiana 2017 Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Master Plan, Isaac’s storm surge was close to being the maximum 1-in-100-year event that the new levee system was designed to resist.

Figure 8
Figure 8. The $1.1 billion, 1.8-mile-long IHNC Surge Barrier, located about 12 miles east of downtown New Orleans. The barrier is part of the $14.6 billion upgrade to New Orleans’ flood defenses made in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. (Image Credit: USACE)

New Orleans’ Mississippi River levee system not thought vulnerable to Sally

As I wrote during 2019’s Hurricane Barry, the New Orleans levee system has an Achilles’ heel, one that may make it vulnerable to a mere Category 1 hurricane storm surge. That weakness is the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River. If the river is running high, near flood stage, a mere five-foot storm surge coming up the river would overtop the levees.

Fortunately, the Mississippi River is at its typical seasonal low-water level, running about five feet above sea level. As the Mississippi River levees protecting New Orleans can handle water levels of up to 20 feet before overtopping, it would take a 15-foot surge moving up the river to cause problems.

Figure 9
Figure 9. Radar image of Paulette at 12:06 p.m. EDT Sunday, September 13, 2020. (Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service)

Paulette strengthens en route to Bermuda

Hurricane Paulette gained strength on Sunday as it approached the island of Bermuda from the southeast. Despite being embedded in a large-scale region of dry air (a mid-level relative humidity of about 40%), Paulette has managed, with some major help from a relaxation in wind shear, to carve out an inner core of heavy thunderstorms. The hurricane was somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast but otherwise had gained symmetry on Sunday. Top sustained winds were 80 mph as of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday.

Wind shear will remain at less than 10 knots into Monday, and Paulette will be passing over warm 28-degree Celsius (82°F) waters, close to 1 degree Celsius above average, so the hurricane is likely to continue strengthening. Paulette will be rounding the bend of the ridge of high pressure steering it on Monday as part of a sharp recurvature toward the northeast.

It’s unfortunate that this turn is likely to happen very close to Bermuda, and Paulette will be close to peak intensity at that point. NHC predicts that the hurricane will be a high-end Category 2 storm when it moves over or very near the island early Monday, a bit stronger than forecast by the HWRF and HMON intensity models.

Paulette could briefly reach Category 3 strength and become the Atlantic’s second major hurricane of 2020 later Monday or Tuesday before wind shear increases sharply. (Note that by the time the hyperactive 2005 season got to the “P” storm, Philippe, that season had already produced four major hurricanes.)

Wind impacts on Bermuda will be more substantial if Paulette moves just to the west of the island, as opposed to just to the east. Track models suggest that Paulette’s broad center could pass directly over Bermuda. Regardless of the exact track, high winds, torrential rains, and a significant storm surge are expected. All the same, with its years of hurricane experience, Bermuda is considered to be well fortified against storms of Paulette’s caliber.

Figure 10
Figure 10. GeoColor visible satellite image of Hurricane Paulette (left) and Tropical Depression Rene (right) at 1540Z (11:40 a.m. EDT) Sunday, September 13. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Tropical Depression Rene on the decline

Far to the southeast of Paulette, slow-moving Tropical Depression Rene was on its last legs Sunday. Top sustained winds were a mere 30 mph, and strong wind shear was pushing dry air into the tiny system. Rene will likely become a remnant low by Monday.

TD 20 in the central Atlantic no threat to land

Tropical Depression 20, which formed in the central Atlantic on Saturday, was headed west-northwest at 10 mph at 11 a.m. EDT Sunday. The depression is expected to turn to the northwest on Wednesday, well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

TD 20 could well turn out to be a “fish” storm – one that will be of concern only to shipping. Conditions for intensification will be very favorable late this week, and TD 20 is expected to be close to major hurricane status by Thursday. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Teddy.

97L near Cabo Verde Islands may become a short-lived tropical cyclone

A tropical wave that moved through the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday was located about 100 miles west of the islands at 8 a.m. EDT Sunday. This wave, designated 97L by NHC, will have favorable conditions for development through Monday, with sea surface temperatures near 27.5 Celsius (82°F), moderately to high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots, and a very moist atmosphere.

However, wind shear is predicted to rise to a prohibitively high 40 – 60 knots Tuesday through Wednesday, preventing further development. At its 8 a.m. Sunday EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L two-day and five-day odds of development of 70%. This system will move north-northwest at 5 – 10 mph through Monday. After Teddy, the next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Vicky.

Another tropical wave forecast to come off the coast of Africa by Tuesday

A new tropical wave is predicted to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday, and it has some modest model support for development late in the week as it moves west at about 15 – 20 mph. At its 8 a.m. Sunday EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

PHOTOUnusually warm sea temperatures fueled Harvey’s devastating rains

Keeping an eye on a Gulf of Mexico disturbance

NHC was monitoring an area of interest over the west-central Gulf of Mexico producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Some slow development is possible while this system moves southwestward and then southward at 5 – 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico this week.

Dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, however, is likely to inhibit its development, as will wind shear. In its 8 a.m. EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

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Posted on September 13, 2020 (3:09pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Windsmurf
Windsmurf
6 days ago

I said it last night, and I will say it again tonight. Don’t underestimate the remnants of Rene once it starts heading Southwest. There may be something there in a couple of days.

FrozeNorth
FrozeNorth
6 days ago

Paulette

11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13
Location: 31.4°N 64.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

This is not the look of a storm you want to see going into d-max. Hurricane by morning very possible. Trending east the bit of good news for New Orleans. comment image

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

….

FrozeNorth
FrozeNorth
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Keep?

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

tune

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

comment image all aboard hahahahaha .

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Are hurricane carnies a thing? If so well done. Who’s going on that ride? I hope no one.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

in the end its all but 2 mins but hold on

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

Note the strongest shear was hours ago over center and northeast of. Now northeast of center has the stongest convection and we have an eyewall southwest of that. Signs of a quickly consolidating T.S Sally. Beginning of rapid intensification? We’ll see. comment image

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

Eyewall noted by HH’s. No bueno.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

Deepening happening, consolidation of center overnight likely, and pressures going down for T.S Sally. Don’t die by falling trees, surge, driving through flooded streets, or generation malfunction. Take precautions to protect life and loved ones. comment image

weatherman321
weatherman321
6 days ago

disregard i found the link

Last edited 6 days ago by weatherman321
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

Nervous energy abounds for Sally. Convergence and divergence aligning in strength now, signifying strengthening soon. Soon the stacking. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.GIF

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
6 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Good evening, thanks for the great information

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

monster
comment image

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

yeah.

NSAlito
NSAlito
6 days ago

A note about the NOLA levees after Katrina: They were not overtopped; they failed below specification. Also, the dramatic violent flooding in the Lower 9th Ward (“nynt’ wawd”) was due to a barge that came loose in the Industrial Canal and then rammed into the wall (not levee) of the canal.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago
Reply to  NSAlito

unexpected out comes the flukes are always the worse

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

a series of unfortunate events

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

life goes on

Elliott
Elliott
6 days ago
Reply to  NSAlito

Just wanted to point out that this is inaccurate, the barge was swept into the neighborhood after the levee failed at multiple points.

Saint
Saint
6 days ago
Reply to  NSAlito

Lmfao

skycycle
skycycle
6 days ago

Sally looks like an intensifying system, lots of lightning strikes in those last few frames

82176625.gif
skycycle
skycycle
6 days ago

Paulette approaching Bermuda

GOES16_1km_ir_202009140125_26.00_35.25_-69.25_-57.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png
WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

comment image

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

please waterworld take me home

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

the time to man up is here

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago

smoke is a choker
the inferno is only beginning
faster faster
time is growing
shorter and shorter

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

take me nature im ready

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
6 days ago
Reply to  Terry

ready for a brave new world

Patrap
6 days ago

September 9th 1965.

betsy1965filledrainblk.gif
Skip
6 days ago

h

Last edited 6 days ago by Skip
Leilaf
Leilaf
6 days ago

Could someone kindly please post the disqus discussion link? I know it has been done many times already. Had to get a new phone today of all things. I cannot find the link! Worried in NOLA.

Patrap
6 days ago
Reply to  Leilaf

Watch wwltv..
R

matty p
matty p
6 days ago
Reply to  Patrap

I was on the blog for years
Mostly learning
Maybe a few hundred comments
I’m interested in finding the link too
Can you please reply

Leilaf
Leilaf
6 days ago
Reply to  Patrap

Lol.I do not have a TV. Anyway no Nash!

Patrap
6 days ago
Reply to  Leilaf

Disqus is down seems.
The WU page n home won’t load.

So I’m here for now

Leilaf
Leilaf
6 days ago
Reply to  Patrap

Ok. I was wondering what I was doing wrong.

Patrap
6 days ago

Sunset viz

comment image

Patrap
6 days ago

Joy

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

Strongest estimated winds still removed from center….closeup view….

comment image

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

Winds picking up a bit for Sally…..

comment image

Art
Art
6 days ago

well just walked me dogs, a very light rain and almost no wind or breezes, at leasat while we were out there..it rained here just about all day long..lights rain, good for the grasses and plants i guess..we’ll see what tomorrow brings….have a good night everyone…be safe out there

Art
Art
6 days ago

comment image

Amature Met
6 days ago

Humm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png
Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

cat 4?

Amature Met
6 days ago
Reply to  Terry

No way, Possibly strong cat 2, still strengthening at land fall. Thats usually not good.

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Terry

yeah cat 4

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Terry

hate to say i told ya so!

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Any model east of New Orleans would be welcomed. This would be bad, but the coastal Mississipians could handle this. They’ve never forgotten Katrina. Euro west bringing New Orleans into more of right front quadrant; but we will see where consolidation happens likely over the next twelve hours. This close to landfall, NHC will be spot on as almost always with lanfall and intensity.

Stormfury
Stormfury
6 days ago

There has been a centre relocation with TD 20
To the sw and the depression.seems to.be moving s of w.
Looking at the 700-85₩mb steering layer TD 20 will move west then wsw before coming back west. It also appears that the ridge is strengthening and could force the depression on a more west track

Last edited 6 days ago by Stormfury
WBNC
WBNC
6 days ago

As always thank you dr masters!

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

New Orleans can take a whole lot of rain at one time. Excess rainfall would not break the city’s surgewalls like Katrina, but it could still be life threatening. This story below is from a thunderstorm in 2019 which is linked.

The intense storm left the metro area scrambling to clean up after a day of flooded first floors, engulfed vehicles and hours-long traffic jams across wide swaths of the city, including in many neighborhoods that rarely—if ever—see street flooding.

The National Weather Service put the official rainfall in New Orleans at more than 7 inches over the span of six hours Wednesday morning, with some personal weather stations dotting the city registering much higher levels. In the Central Business District, a rain gauge tallied up 11 inches by mid-morning. https://www.nola.com/news/article_e7cd222a-a329-11e9-8b2d-ab8749f9d28a.html

Last edited 6 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Windsmurf
Windsmurf
6 days ago

Yes, by now we all know that you have been saying it for 2 weeks

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

Sally’s going to pretty much stop on top of New Orleans with the front right quad draped over the city. A full day Sally’s going to sit over or very near New Orleans as forecast now. Most of us know the rates the pumps drain there. This may end up being real bad math for the city. New Orleans will see some of the worst conditions forecast now, and no one should take this lightly. A sense of ease as the storm builds happens for many. Never panic, listen to the experts, but have a plan for worse case scenario. If the forcast changes over the next two days for the worse? Still time to make the right moves. comment image

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

stall

Terry
Terry
6 days ago

Appreciate the Sunday read.

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
6 days ago

Thank You Dr.; we should know by tomorrow morning which way the pendulum swings in terms of how well Sally stacks up overnight

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WxManWannaBe

Yes . i was just about to post what u wrote. thx for confirming

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  WxManWannaBe

I also would like you to post more here. your insight is welcome

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago

Double shrimp look. Mid and Low Levels not hooking up fast has been a theme this year. But when they do off they go. Thanks for another great update Docs, can’t help but think if Tropical Storm Sally does rapidly intensify, it could be a lot of repeats of ineveitable mistakes for New Orleans. By no means am I saying an evacuation is warranted with the forecast as it is now. A. Not enough time now. B. Forecast never warranted such evacuation. The writeup on surge potential is hopeful and excellent above and gives a lot of hope New Orleans “should” be just fine. For me personally, I’ve seen the results of what happens when the unthinkable does. And in our age of extreme weather, in the Gulf at peak, these SST’s, low shear, I’d get out of New Orleans just to be safe. If you are in New Orleans, have a place of elevation that you can get you and your loved ones to just in case. Lot of elderly may be in New Orleans without air conditioning soon. Check on your neighborns who don’t get checked on often please. Good news, for now, all signs are New Orleans is well set to handle the surge predicted by Sally. Will D-max tonight be the night mid and level become one? Sure hope not.comment image

Last edited 6 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Yalewang
Yalewang
6 days ago

Multiple runs of the GFS computer model show a subtropical storm forming north of the Azores at the latitude of Brest, France, before looping southeast to make landfall on SW Portugal or SW Spain within a few days as a possible tropical system, similar to Vince 2005. This has been shown in computer models for a couple days now. Are we keeping an eye on this? It’s not in the TWO, but you can see the precursor storm near the Azores.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
6 days ago
Reply to  Yalewang

Fires destroying mass regions out West, 2000% more than last year, and Sally may be a strong hurricane that makes landfall in one of the most prone to hurricanes cities in our Nation. Models have shown this scenario you are talking about, looks likely and would be super cool and unique. But…..we’re a bit preoccupied.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

Sally….

comment image?hash=28859

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

a way to go yet.

Holleybe
Holleybe
6 days ago

New Orleans getting ready now….it will be easier than for Laura because we were getting prepared for her just a little while back…..

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
6 days ago

Thank you Bob and Doc

Art
Art
6 days ago
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

FLZ023>025-030>033-125-133-136-132000-
Eastern Alachua FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Baker FL-Inland Duval FL-
Union FL-Inland Nassau FL-Bradford FL-Clay FL-Coastal Duval FL-
Inland St. Johns FL-
315 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU...BRADFORD...
NORTHEASTERN ALACHUA...ST. JOHNS...SOUTHERN BAKER...UNION...CLAY AND
DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

* At 314 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Raiford to near South Ponte Vedra. Movement was northwest at 30
  mph.

* Wind gusts up near 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  are possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jacksonville, Saint Augustine, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs,
  Starke, Lake Butler, Keystone Heights, Raiford, Worthington Spring
  and Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&
WildLifeLover
WildLifeLover
6 days ago
Reply to  Art

TY I am in St Augustine.

Art
Art
6 days ago
Reply to  WildLifeLover

ok be safe ok

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Art

Thx

WindyMiller
WindyMiller
6 days ago

Thanks Bob and Dr M!

Art
Art
6 days ago

Sally sure has’nt moved all that much from this morning..comment image

Terry
Terry
6 days ago
Reply to  Art

stall!

Dirk
Dirk
6 days ago

Thanks Dr. Jeff for the 3 o clock update.

elioe
elioe
6 days ago
tlf844
tlf844
6 days ago

Thanks doc- yes rain is going to big issue here wherever this lands. Fla rain totals impressive for just a minimal TS

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

Compared to the latest 850mb….

850.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

MLC still appears to lagging behind the LLC….see latest 500mb….

500.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
6 days ago

Thanks Bob and Dr. Masters!