Tropical Storm Sally radar
Radar image of Tropical Storm Sally at 2:19 p.m. EDT Saturday, September 12, 2020. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Tropical Storm Sally, which formed along the coast of Southwest Florida on Saturday afternoon, is expected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Sally will be moving very slowly for multiple days up to the time of landfall, increasing chances of dangerous heavy rains in excess of 10 inches along the coast.

At 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, September 12, 2020, Sally was centered near the coast of Southwest Florida, 35 miles south-southeast of Naples. Sally was a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, moving west at 7 mph. The storm was bringing torrential rains and wind gusts of tropical storm force to the Florida Keys. At 12 p.m. EDT, Fowey Rocks in the Florida Keys reported sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 47 mph. As of 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, heavy rains of 4 – 8 inches had fallen across much of the Middle and Upper Keys, with over eight inches in Lower Matecumbe Key, the Key West National Weather Service reported. Satellite and radar images showed a steady increase in the organization and intensity of Sally’s heavy thunderstorm activity.

Figure 1
Figure 1. GeoColor visible satellite image of Sally as of 1550Z (11:50 a.m. EDT) Saturday, September 12, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Forecast for Sally

Sally will move in a general west-northwest motion toward the central Gulf Coast over the next several days. Steering currents will weaken by Sunday and Sally will slow down to a forward speed of about 5 mph, giving it time to gain strength from the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are around 30°C (86°F). The Gulf waters have largely recovered from the cool wake left by hurricanes Marco and Laura, and Sally should remain just northeast of a cool eddy with low oceanic heat content over the southeast Gulf.

Although wind shear will be moderate over the next several days, at 10-20 knots, Sally will move beneath a broad upper ridge, and the upper winds will support favorable outflow from the storm. The air mass should remain reasonably moist, with a mid-level relative humidity around 60%, so dry air is unlikely to be a major hindrance. By late Monday and into Tuesday, wind shear is expected to tick up a notch, to around 20 knots, which may slow the intensification process.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are running about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1°F) above average for this time of year, as depicted in this graphic of anomalies (degrees Celsius) from Saturday, September 12, 2020. (Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com)

How much Sally strengthens will depend in part on how quickly it develops a vertically aligned inner core. A period of rapid intensification cannot be ruled out if the storm organizes quickly enough. The official forecast is for more gradual strengthening, with Sally approaching the central Gulf Coast as a category 1 hurricane. The 06Z Saturday HWRF and HMON intensity models, among the best guidance for intensity, both bring Sally to the coast as a Category 2 storm. The 12Z Saturday HWRF model predicted that Sally would hit southeast Louisiana early Tuesday morning as a high-end category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, passing over New Orleans at category 2 strength. The 12Z Saturday HMON model had a category 1 storm with 85 mph winds making landfall near Mobile on Tuesday afternoon. So the uncertainty in landfall intensity is large, with Sally likely to range between a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a high-end category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds on Tuesday.

The landfall location is also not yet set in stone. There was fairly close agreement between the Friday evening and Saturday morning runs of the GFS, UKMET, and European track models that Sally would approach the coastline between New Orleans and Mobile by Tuesday. However, the center was further south on Saturday afternoon than had been predicted by Saturday morning’s computer models. This implies that the subsequent track may also be further south, bringing the system closer to Louisiana. The European and GFS ensembles from early Saturday morning (06Z) included a number of members with a Louisiana landfall. Because of Sally’s angle of approach, only a slight southward displacement of the track could allow impacts to extend substantially farther west over coastal Louisiana. We can expect track forecasts to shift west as the models incorporate this farther-south location.

One serious concern with Sally is an extended period of torrential rain along the central Gulf Coast, due to the storm’s expected slow motion of less than 5 mph on Monday through Thursday. Models suggest that a pocket of 10-15 inches of rain is likely near the storm’s center, with even higher localized totals possible. A larger corridor of 5-10 inches can be expected near the coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. After landfall, the system may linger near the coast for another day or more, adding to the rainfall totals.

The type of west-northwest track predicted for Sally is especially favorable for driving storm surge into the coast of southeast Louisiana. The amount of surge will depend on how quickly Sally strengthens, the exact track it takes, and the eventual size of its wind field. Adding to the mix is the unfortunate timing that the new moon arrives on Thursday, September 17, bringing some the highest tides of the year next week – the king tides.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for the five days from 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, September 12, 2020, to September 17. Rainfall amounts in excess of 10″ (yellow colors) are predicted along the Gulf Coast near where Sally makes landfall. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC)

The 2020 parade of record-early named storms continues

Sally’s arrival on September 12 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its eighteenth tropical storm, topping the record held by Stan from October 2, 2005. Only three more names remain on the 2020 Atlantic list: Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Invest 95L in the eastern Atlantic is likely to become Tropical Storm Teddy by Sunday; the record for earliest-forming nineteenth storm in the Atlantic is October 4, 2005 (it was unnamed, as it was classified after the season was over).

With the Atlantic hurricane season just two days past the climatological half-way point, we’ve already had 18 named storms, five hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. Only seven Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851 have had more named storms during an entire season. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.

Figure 4
Figure 4. GeoColor visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Paulette (upper left) and much smaller Tropical Depression Rene (lower right) at 1750Z (1:50 p.m. EDT) Saturday, September 12, 2020. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Paulette expected to bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda

Resilient for days amid relentless wind shear, Tropical Storm Paulette is now on its way toward more favorable conditions as it approaches Bermuda. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, as Paulette is predicted to swing over or very close to the island as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

Showers and thunderstorm activity (convection) were limited around Paulette on Saturday, but the storm has a strong, well-defined circulation, with midday Saturday top winds of 70 mph. Paulette will be passing over unusually warm waters of 28-29°C (82-84°F), about 0.5-1.0°C above average for mid-September. Wind shear is expected to drop dramatically to less than 10 knots from Sunday into Monday. Despite being engulfed by dry air (mid-level relative humidity around 40%), Paulette may still preserve a pocket of moist air around its core.

Paulette’s approach to Bermuda from the southeast is unusual: most of the many hurricanes that have threatened the island came from the south or southwest. Moreover, Paulette will be making a sharp recurvature toward the northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda. This adds a wrinkle to the track forecast in terms of the island. The most reliable track models are calling for Paulette to make its northeastward bend very close to Bermuda on Monday morning, as reflected in the NHC forecast. Peak winds in Bermuda will hinge on whether the center passes just east or just west of the island; the latter would put Bermuda in the stronger right-hand side of Paulette’s inner core.

Given its extensive experience with intense hurricanes, Bermuda is well equipped to handle Paulette. Rainfall could total 5″ or more on the island, and significant storm surge is possible depending on the exact track of Paulette’s center.

Rene weakens to a tropical depression

To the southeast of Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene was downgraded to depression status on Saturday morning. Choking on dry air, Rene may become a remnant low or could hang on to depression status as it lingers across the subtropical Atlantic south of Paulette for the next several days.

95L in the central Atlantic likely to become TD 20

Satellite imagery showed that the tropical wave located on Saturday afternoon in the eastern Atlantic, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was near tropical depression status.

This system, designated 95L by NHC, is predicted to initially move westward at 15 to 20 mph. Computer model forecasts increasingly have been suggesting that 95L will turn to the northwest well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands, and 95L could well turn out to be a “fish” storm – one that will only be of concern to shipping. In a 2 p.m. EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L two-day and five-day odds of development of 90%.

97L near the Cabo Verde Islands may be a short-lived tropical cyclone

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday was near the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday afternoon. This wave, designated 97L by NHC, will have favorable conditions for development through Sunday, with SSTs near 27.5 Celsius (82°F), moderate wind shear of 5 – 15 knots, and a very moist atmosphere.

However, wind shear is predicted to rise to a high 20 – 30 knots on Monday, then increase to a prohibitively high 50 – 70 knots on Tuesday, likely destroying the system. In a 2 p.m. Saturday EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L two-day and five-day odds of development of 40% and 60%, respectively. This system will move slowly west-northwest through Sunday.

The most reliable hurricane models, according to their 2019 performance

A Gulf of Mexico disturbance worth watching

NHC was monitoring an area of interest over the north-central Gulf of Mexico producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. Some slow development is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to inhibit its development. In a 2 p.m. EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 12, 2020 (4:16pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Art
Art
7 days ago

NWS New Orleans situation overlook (clip)…………….
SITUATION OVERVIEW
——————

Tropical Storm Sally continues to pull away from the lower Florida
coast into the open eastern Gulf of Mexico. Sally is expected to move
in a general west-northwest direction through Monday night, now
expected to make landfall along the southeast Louisiana coast
overnight Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Sally is now
forecast to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane prior to landfall.
Life threatening storm surge, torrential rainfall, and damaging winds
is expected to move into the area late Monday and continue for the
better part of Tuesday before improving Wednesday morning.

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

..

IMG_20200913_063237.png
Terry
Terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Terry

westpac

IMG_20200913_064429.png
Art
Art
7 days ago

TS Sally’s winds now up to 50mph getting a bit stronger now

terry
terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Art

morn .. thx for update

Art
Art
7 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
7 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
7 days ago

its strange…sometime ago last month I think it was..GFS-Euro and CMC all noted a hurricane or strong storm coming up the west coast of Florida in the gulf…and today? look what we got strengthening?..congrats to the models

Art
Art
7 days ago

comment image

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
7 days ago

This is weird. It looks like it’s moving north. And in a way, it also looks like there is a lot more spin NW of the blob. I don’t see how it stays on this track and makes it to NOLA. Looking more like MS/AL to my untrained eye.comment image

Last edited 7 days ago by White Rabbit
Art
Art
7 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

yes ,just walked my dogs and here by my area in WCFL its Very windy and you can just tell there’s a tropical something near by..but no rain here right now..feels like its getting stronger

accu35
accu35
7 days ago

This place is slow

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Bottomline is we’ll know more later today. If a scenerio like this plays out, do not take chances. We’ll likely know if New Orleans will have to be evacuated by tomorrow evening at the latest. A rapidly intensifying major into New Orleans, through landfall, is also not out of the question at this time. NHC will clear a lot of this up later today.comment image?w=600&h=473

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

A pack go from the discus backup to here to downvote main commenters. Glad I can be a test subject here for it. I’m sure people can see my sincerity. Hopefully the troll train rolling can be derailed soon. The really great thing about the Wunderblogs back in the day was you could get great information you can trust. Experts giving you sincere insights in a family like environment. I look forward to the day this place is just that. For now you can find that at the Discus backup; and I’ll do what I can until this place is home to everyone else too.

TampaLurker
TampaLurker
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

But do downvotes actually mean anything? Unless an excessive number causes all of your posts to be flagged and held for moderation, does it really matter? It’s a comment section, not a popularity contest.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Surface convergence has really collapsed over the last few hours for T.S Sally. Sally a long way from finding balance. If T.S Sally stacks overnight that may all change tomorrow. If not, Sally may be a hot mess tomorrow still. Hopefully. Picture from link. An excellent source. http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall15/atmo170a1s3/lecture_notes/hurricanes/lect34_hurricanes_pt1.html http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall15/atmo170a1s3/lecture_notes/hurricanes/hurricane_development_02.jpg

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Rather pitiful convergence for Tropical Storm Sally pictured. Even if Sally doesn’t get above 70mph, dropping over a foot of rain across a large area could still end up Sally as #3 on this year’s retired list. Don’t let your guard down. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.GIF

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Everybody knows I’m no expert. But on the loop, it looks like Sally is starting to wrap around the center tonight.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

Getting closer for sure.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Following at times the old house, I see a coordinated attack on science has been ongoing. People coming up with duplicate accounts again and again. When the West is burning like never before and a possible hurricane coming for the Gulf Coast? Coming to downvote, cause strife, and often downcast the season? Very callous and inappropriate. At least I’m here trying to provide some information and conversation.

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
NCHurricane2009
7 days ago

Just did a full update at my infohurricanes site regarding Sally, Paulette, Rene, TD 20, and the two disturbances in the NHC outlook. Thinking the disturbance in the Gulf next to Sally won’t do anything as Sally dominates, but the One next to the Cabo Verde Islands may quickly shoot up to tropical cyclone status in the next 24 hours before shear hit it.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Uggly bugger for now. Low level looks like a snowman’s head not getting along with it’s body for now. Good sign for tonight at least. comment image

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Mid level clearly did not stack but is feeling the better conditions than the low level. Low level battling the shear north, mid level juicing off the strongest areas of convergence and divergence south, and now the strongest convection. Looks like T.S Sally may consolidate south of projections.comment image

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Windsmurf
Windsmurf
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Good evening Wyatt, what is your opinion on TD 20? Do you see it heading out to sea for sure?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

Models suggesting the turn to the northwest is going to come and allow TD 20 to escape northwest through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Looking hopeful may miss land interaction. Models in good agreement for the turn northwest. Going to be a hurricane fairly quickly, move more poleward, and hopfully only out for fish. May loop, who knows Windsmurf in 2020. Just unbelievable what we’re seeing out West. Heartbreaking. Your kindness means a great deal, thank you Windsmurf.

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you son, your dedication is greatly appreciated. Have a great night, I will check in with you tomorrow.

terry
terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Windsmurf

talking in 3rd person. hmm….

cloudy2
cloudy2
7 days ago

I just found out what AQI is when it’s beyond hazardous.
https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Talent&state=OR&country=USA

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

May have just stacked just south of where llc was for T.S Sally. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=gm&band=13&length=24

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Mid and low levels not perfectly stacked yet. Mid level is just south of the low level. Convergence and Divergence much stronger south of center as well. May try to skirt south and west of the 15kts of shear to the north that entends into Louisiana along Sally’s path. Mid level and low levels vorticities of Tropical Storm Sally shown. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

On radar in the previous post the western convection is blocked from the radar looks like. LLC seen as the impression just to the northwest of center of convectioncomment image

terry
terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

yup

terry
terry
7 days ago
Reply to  terry

..

IMG_20200912_200542.png
serialteg (PackerFan)
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Coming quite nicely

matty p
matty p
7 days ago

Been trying to look back and find the other blog
Cat 6
Can’t find it anywhere
Anyone know how

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  matty p

Thanks FrozeNorth.

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
FrozeNorth
FrozeNorth
7 days ago
Reply to  matty p
Ineluki
Ineluki
6 days ago
Reply to  matty p

To be pedantic: There is no longer a Cat 6 blog on Weather Underground. People are keeping the comments on the last post alive until Disqus either notices or it falls over from too many posts.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Key West radar loop shows the LLC and building CDO. Satellite shows this well too.comment image

serialteg (PackerFan)

Hi guys / gals, just logging in to see what’s up with the tropics. Waiting on 95L, just came from watching some good Paulette surf Puerto Rico’s N coast. Please be safe with Sally & Pau (Bermuda). Also the Cali fires…

Art
Art
7 days ago

yes Sally looks to be growing in size, this storm just might surprise people..be alert and safe…good night everyone!!

Art
Art
7 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
7 days ago

real windy and raining pretty good here by me….comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

26 times the acreage burned compared to last year so far. Half a million have evacuated. Massive areas of people’s livelihoods incinerated. Looks like a war zone with no end in sight. Over 80% started by people. A picture of climate and mankind run amuck.comment image

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

What’s up with the ip address noted terry?

anon
anon
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

It is crazy. It’s interesting how people are coming up with conspiracy theories to explain the failures of humanity to deal w/ climate change – for example in OR people were blaming a political movement for setting fires and other people believed those rumors. It would be like the levees failing in LA in Sally (hopefully not!) and the powers that be saying it was whatever political party’s partisans who somehow sabotaged them as opposed to those who failed to prepare the levees for climate change and storms like Sally. As the disasters grow, the explanations get crazier, and people believe it.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  anon

I’d like to believe most are sick of it all and how ridiculous it’s all gotten.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Ok, I give up. What was wrong with the above post?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

Coordinated attacks across both platforms.

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
7 days ago

2020, As in vision and awareness, is going to be the year that we get to grips with what might be the future, as in 20/20 vision!
Hell of a time going on right now, apart from the Human things with virus and migrations, general background disasters and the usual things we seem to endlessly not be prepared for.

Now we have a spate of storms and they are causing damage.
We have wildfires that are out of control.
We have the ongoing background virus thing, that gets in the way of normal everyday life and to make matters worse, there is probably going to be an extended Global recession for the ongoing intermediate future.

Well at least its only mid September? Now did that date remind me of something? Oh yes half way through the hurricane season!

Hot and dry in Spain for the weekend with 38/C or about 100/F for a lot of places, including the north coast for a change, probably another record but there are so many records this year we all lost count!

Keep us posted on events Doc, we are desperate for news!
At least on our side of the Atlantic.

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
7 days ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

What is a mac Address?

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
7 days ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

There will be a lot of people who just willfully ignore everything that’s going on. No matter what, it seems like half the people are against the other half, regardless of what they are trying to do. Nah.. I think we’re screwed at least in the short term. And the problem is, we don’t have much time to fix what needs to be fixed. Sorry for speaking southern.

terry
terry
7 days ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

yup

Shira
Shira
7 days ago

Predicted storm surge for the Mississippi Coast. If Sally goes RI, I expect those numbers to increase if we’re still coned:

stormsurge.png
Shira
Shira
7 days ago

We in Mississippi (the area between NO and Mobile) are keeping an eye on Sally.

tropicofcancer
tropicofcancer
7 days ago
Reply to  Shira

Ha, so that’s what is called. Thanks for clarifying😂😂😂

Shira
Shira
7 days ago
Reply to  tropicofcancer

You’re welcome! TWC calls us the landmass between Louisiana and Alabama!!!

Art
Art
7 days ago
Reply to  Shira

be alert and safe over there

MissMolly'sMom
MissMolly'sMom
7 days ago
Reply to  Shira

The Landmass

cloudy2
cloudy2
7 days ago

I used to post a lot to The Guardian, which uses the same commenting system.

How do you make a link show up in all its color on @ycc?
I forget what they call it, so I have no term to look up.
thanks!

greiner3
greiner3
7 days ago
Reply to  cloudy2

You might want to try;

https://www.wpbeginner.com/wp-tutorials/how-to-change-the-text-color-in-wordpress-easy-methods/

Using WordPress to change text and more.

cloudy2
cloudy2
7 days ago
Reply to  greiner3

Thanks, but I mean something that doesn’t have to be learned, but something you do like copy + paste.

Is this wordpress?
It certainly doesn’t look like it.

Dan Hogberg
Dan Hogberg
7 days ago

I’m in Key West. as of 5:30 pm, Over 4″ since 11 am this morning and much more on the way as bands keep rotating through from the west. Parts of the middle keys around Islamorada have received over 11 inches. with 45 mph gusts. Sally seems like she’s loving the 87 degree water here and getting her act together faster than forecast!

cloudy2
cloudy2
7 days ago

I concerned about Talent/Ashland Oregon, as 2 of my brothers live there.
https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Talent&state=OR&country=USA

What happens when you get to the end of “hazardous”?

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

Heretic

se.png
Terry
Terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Terry

2

ds.png
E Kelly
E Kelly
7 days ago

Thanks so much for keeping us “in the know” on this storm. Now’s the time for those along the northern GOM to prepare. From the looks of things, in my area (Mobile AL) we are in for some heavy rain. As much as we need rain, we don’t need this much at one time. Everyone stay alert!

Jennifer L Lee
Jennifer L Lee
7 days ago

I’m near Destin.. Praying for you guys on the west of us! We are still a bit nervous here and debating on taking our boat out of the slip to be on the safe side. ugh

Last edited 7 days ago by Jennifer L Lee
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Jennifer L Lee

Could be on the front right quadrant/side of Sally. Angle of approach could cause Destin, Florida to be at risk for some real ugly conditions and quick spin up tornadoes. Sally will be a large storm. Sally were to intensify more than expected Destin could be closer to landfall than forecast now.

Jen
Jen
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you so much. We are for sure watching itm

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Jen

You’re very welcome.

greiner3
greiner3
7 days ago
Reply to  Jennifer L Lee

Just curious, where would you take your boat if you end up taking that route?

Jen
Jen
7 days ago
Reply to  greiner3

We have it in a slip. So we would pull out of the water and put it at our house.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

From the Docs above: –Because of Sally’s angle of approach, only a slight southward displacement of the track could allow impacts to extend substantially farther west over coastal Louisiana. We can expect track forecasts to shift west as the models incorporate this farther-south location.-

Is this farther-south location established or has T.S recorrected/jogged back north, which would put path more suggestive of where NHC have it now? comment image?w=600&h=501

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
7 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary – 3:00 AM JST September 13 2020
==================================================
Sea East of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 36.5N 144.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots.

Last edited 7 days ago by HadesGodWyvern
Windsmurf
Windsmurf
7 days ago

Don’t count Rene out once he dips back Southwest

weather explorer
weather explorer
7 days ago

Most of the waves coming off Africa will be fish storms right? We shouldn’t be expecting anymore low riders and storms cruising in the Caribbean?

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
7 days ago

The answer to this question is only known by Mother Nature.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

At least two more coming off in the next week or so that could with the Atlantic High building back in. Two more weeks and Cape Verde season should be slowing finally. Maybe four more named storms we’ll get from waves coming off Africa.

weather explorer
weather explorer
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you!

Nrtiwlnvragn
7 days ago

Might be a stretch to say Fowey Rock (FWYF1) is in the Keys

comment image

Scott Tribe
Scott Tribe
7 days ago

…NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC…

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/122042.shtml

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

incoming! Tdot!

bad storms in tdot.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago

Not often I read a blog from Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson and get chills up the back of my neck. Track moving west is not good for New Orleans. We may be looking at another Lake Charles, Louisiana event if the track continues to track west over the next few days. Seeing the Docs say west and looking at rainfall possibility? Now move that west as well. Not good.comment image

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you Docs for another great blog. Looking at those rates of rain and wondering if New Orleans will have to be evacuated. We’ll know soon enough. The trend West would in theory put New Orleans in the highest rain rates bullseye.

Last edited 7 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Northeast Quadrant
Northeast Quadrant
7 days ago

Great post, Dr. Masters! Enjoy your insight.

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

what the bloody H. E. double hockey sticks!

EhvSxbRWoAEbTyX.jpg
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
7 days ago
Reply to  Terry

That convection could be associated with a trough dipping into central LA…..pulling some showers across LA….

Trough.png
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
7 days ago

Sally…..

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Fort Morgan AL Fisherman
Fort Morgan AL Fisherman
7 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Looks like its growing more than expected…?

Big G onMV
Big G onMV
7 days ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Powering up…

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
7 days ago

Thanks, Dr. Masters! Great read!

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
7 days ago

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=ir

The 2 large lows both east and west competing to clear out the Great Basin of much of the smoke is highly appreciated though.

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

Great to see an Early update, Stay safe everyone, lots of Rain ahead!

Terry
Terry
7 days ago
Reply to  Terry

I not sure why, but i feel like 2005 all again!

NW AZ weatherwatcher
NW AZ weatherwatcher
7 days ago

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes17-meso1&product=vis

And the utter devestation continues in the west, hour-by-hour endlessly getting worse. You can barely tell the difference between the mixing marine layer and the ingrained dense smoke along the coastline and out to sea, or the very massive many fires under the dense smoke in many places.

Terry
Terry
7 days ago

very sad yes!