Satellite image
Visible satellite image of Paulette, Rene, and four disturbances NHC is monitoring for development at 11:10 a.m. EDT Thursday, September 10. The five-day odds of development are shown for the four disturbances. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

NOAA issued the year’s first La Niña advisory in its September 10 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

La Niña conditions favor active Atlantic hurricane seasons with higher-than-average U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, particularly along the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. With two named storms and four other threat areas in the Atlantic, today’s very active situation is typical of what one expects during the climatological peak week of a La Niña hurricane season.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Climatological frequency of named storms and hurricanes in Atlantic. September 10 marks the peak of the season. (Image credit: NOAA/National Hurricane Center)

La Niña expected to last through spring 2021

Over the past week, sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) were 0.9 degrees Celsius below average, well below the 0.5 degree below-average threshold for a weak La Niña, and near the 1.0 degree below-average threshold for moderate La Niña conditions. Forecasters at NOAA and at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society favor La Niña conditions continuing through the winter (75% chance), and peaking as a borderline weak/moderate La Niña.

Earth’s most recent La Niña event, from September 2017 through March 2018, was a weak one. That said, the La Niña Atlantic hurricane season of 2017 was an exceptionally brutal one, with three destructive hurricanes that ranked in the top five for most expensive weather-related disasters in world history: Harvey ($128 billion), Maria ($92 billion) and Irma ($51 billion).

Figure 2
Figure 2. Weather disasters in the U.S. costing at least $30 billion since 1980. Three of the top-five events were hurricanes that occurred during the 2017 La Niña year.

The tweet below by Steve Bowen of Aon shows that U.S. landfalling hurricanes have historically been considerably more common during La Niña years:

Bowen tweet

Paulette a threat to Bermuda

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette, with 50 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, was headed west-northwest at 10 mph toward Bermuda, well within the National Hurricane Center’s five-day cone of uncertainty. Paulette was struggling with very high wind shear of 30 – 40 knots from an upper-level trough of low pressure. That very high wind shear is expected to continue through Saturday morning, which should cause Paulette to weaken. The shear is predicted to relax to a moderate 10 – 20 knots Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and then drop to less than 10 knots by Monday, when Paulette will be nearing Bermuda. The lower shear likely will allow Paulette to re-strengthen, and the majority of the top intensity models predict that Paulette will be a hurricane on Monday, with several predicting it could be a category 2 hurricane.

Steering currents appear well-positioned to turn Paulette more to the northwest and then north early next week, and the storm is not expected to be a landfall threat in the U.S. Fewer than 5% of the 72 ensemble members of the 0Z or 6Z Thursday runs of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts showed Paulette making landfall along the U.S. East Coast next week; Bermuda currently appears to be the only land area facing a possible Paulette landfall.

Rene not a threat to land

In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Rene, a strengthening tropical storm with 50 mph winds at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, was headed west-northwest at 12 mph into the central Atlantic, far from any land areas. With adequately warm waters near 26.5 degrees Celsius (80°F), light to moderate wind shear, and a moist atmosphere, conditions appear favorable for Rene to intensify into a hurricane by Saturday. Rene is expected to turn more to the northwest by Sunday and begin weakening; the storm is unlikely to affect any land areas.

According to floodlist.com, the tropical wave that became Rene produced torrential rains and deadly flooding in West Africa. Six flood deaths occurred in Senegal, with up to eight inches of rain falling in 24 hours on September 5. Three flood deaths occurred in Burkina Faso.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Predicted path of Atlantic tropical cyclones over the next seven days from the 0Z Thursday, September 10, run of the European ensemble model. Most of the model’s 51 ensemble members (colored lines, which show minimum central pressure) predicted Paulette would come very close to Bermuda as a hurricane, then recurve to the northeast. Four other potential areas to watch included two disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico with 5-day formation odds of 20% and 30%, and two tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with 5-day formation odds of 40% and 90%. The most concerning was a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday (5-day formation odds of 90%) and is expected to move westward and potentially threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands in 6 – 8 days. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Two areas of interest near the U.S. worth watching

The weak area of low pressure approaching the North Carolina coast this week, 94L, was moving ashore on Thursday afternoon and is no longer a threat to develop.

NHC was monitoring two other areas of interest near the U.S., both with low chances of development. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas was forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday, and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.

Another disturbance that developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, off the Florida coast, was producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Visible satellite image at 11:10 a.m. EDT Thursday, September 10, of two disturbances NHC is monitoring for development with 20% and 30% five-day odds of development, respectively. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

The future Sally likely to be a tropical wave that emerged from Africa on Thursday

Top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis strongly support development of a new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday.

This wave is predicted to move mostly westward at low latitude at 15 to 20 mph next week. Given its lower-latitude position compared to Paulette and Rene, this new tropical wave may be a long-range concern for the Caribbean and North America. Over 30% of the 51 ensemble members from the 0Z Thursday, September 10, run of the European ensemble forecast showed that this new system would be a named storm in or just north of the Caribbean late next week.

FruitSurvivors of Hurricane Maria hand out fruit trees in Puerto Rico

However, the future track of the system could be affected by the position and strength of Paulette and Rene, by the structure of the wave once it organizes into a tropical depression, and also by the path and intensity of another tropical wave likely to move off the coast of Africa on Saturday – variables very difficult to accurately predict. In an 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the new wave two-day and five-day odds of development of 60% and 90%, respectively. The wave behind it, expected to emerge from the coast on Saturday, was given two-day and five-day odds of development of 0% and 40%, respectively.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Sally and Teddy.

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Posted on September 10, 2020 (2:06pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
110 Comments
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Deano
Deano
15 days ago

Thus far the Atlantic basin has chosen to disperse heat energy in rather low key ways. High name volume certainly isn’t meshing with overall severity. Laura, one exception. Plenty of time for that to change. Low latitude land influence and somewhat surprising shear has kept the brakes on.

Terry
Terry
15 days ago

not good!

really bad.jpg
stevezonecs
stevezonecs
15 days ago

Thank you for the update, Doc!

TybeeTime - (SS)
TybeeTime - (SS)
15 days ago

Happy Birthday, Doc!!!

Thank you for the post, as well! The landfall statistics for La Nina are pretty sobering.

Terry
Terry
15 days ago

happy bday ,

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
15 days ago

That’s a crazy amount of -80 at least cloudtops popping all around 96L now. Too early to call it a pre rapid intensification look with no defined low level center; but all these little circular strong blowups is a sign 96L may takeoff in earnest today. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
15 days ago

96L has the Mid/Low level close by but both are elongated. Mid level elongated north to south, and low level elongated east to west. If stacking happens and 96L can work this out, then we’d have a real problem on our hands.

Low level vorticity pictured first. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF

jeffs713
jeffs713
15 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Those are VERY weak vorticies. As in, my kid’s bathtub has a more defined vort. This isn’t going to “take off” or suddenly become a “real problem”. It has a LOT of work to do, beyond stacking vort – it also has to get some real structure to the storms, start deepening, and not run into land that is less than 200 miles away (that it is moving towards, no less).

Skyepony
15 days ago

96L is looking gamely this morning. Judging by the flurry of PTSD FL Bust Caster activity, we could be in for a storm.. Conditions from ECFL..windows are fogged over, had a few showers in the last hour & a little bit of ground to cloud lightning. Put together a self updating blog with a slide show late last night that is still getting added to. There is video of a guy riding thru Talent on a bike as it burns in there too.. http://skyeponyweather.weebly.com/skyepony-weather/paulette-rene-95l-other-areas-of-intrest#comments

96Lcomment image

Terry
Terry
15 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

I think you are right, love the blog u have and great info, thanks again! enjoy the weekend

jason weed
15 days ago

comment image?w=600&h=500 invest 96L

Terry
Terry
15 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

Watching 96L moving west at 3mph

3mph, wow slow and steady wins the race! thanks nature!

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
15 days ago
Reply to  Terry

If it is indeed moving West at only 3 MPH and currently about 200 miles away from the Florida coast, that will give it about 2 days to get organize. Am I seeing this correctly?

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
15 days ago

Good morning all. Does anyone have the link for the backdoor for the cat 6 comments section? Would be appreciated.

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
15 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Thank you!

Terry
Terry
15 days ago

“If we’re serious about our faith, then we need to be serious about taking care of his creation,” she says. nah don’t buy it, . the only thing religion does is divide!

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Agreed. Totally.

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  Terry

They’re selling fear induced after life insurance. As such, it’s a business and should be taxed. Think of the revenue and all the Charlatans who’d suddenly disappear. Most of these religious frauds live high off the hog. Wasn’t meant to be that way. SOCIETY needs the money, not a few whack jobs. Tax em all.

Sue Kaufman
Sue Kaufman
15 days ago

Famous Last Words category, as no one knows much of anything and it’s just mid-September.

Amature Met
15 days ago

Yea its Sept. Look for home grown storms. However some very powerful canes have hit Fl in Sept and October. Even on the east coast but they are few compared to west coast.

Hope you are correct.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes

420px-Michael_2018-10-10_1715Z_cropped.jpg
Last edited 15 days ago by Amature Met
Amature Met
15 days ago

Me thinks 96L will be td soon.

Art
Art
16 days ago

GFS 6z running…….comment image

Storm Master
Storm Master
16 days ago

Hi

if hurricane Katrina damage is 165 billion

then why dos it say 125 billion on here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

NUChickens
NUChickens
15 days ago
Reply to  Storm Master

the 165 number has been adjusted to what the value of a dollar is worth in 2020.

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
16 days ago

huh

gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.png
Art
Art
16 days ago
000
FXUS62 KTBW 110758
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
358 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020


.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...
A few high clouds and a very moist and warm airmass dominating the
Sunshine state this morning, as weak trough continues to move west
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. East to northeasterly winds prevail
across most of the peninsula and this will continue through most of
today as high pressure remains to our north.

The main weather story though will be the gradual increase in moisture
expected this afternoon and through the weekend, as another low
pressure disturbance approaches Florida. The additional tropical
moisture (PWATs over 2.25 inches) combined with the typical sea
breeze will support strong showers and thunderstorms along this
boundary. This will bring heavy rainfall and localized flooding to
coastal areas already saturated. Additionally, WPC has highlighted
west central and southwest Florida areas with a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall during that period. These factors and the
increase in confidence on heavy rain today through the weekend
resulted in the extension of the flood watch already in place from
Pinellas County southward to this afternoon, and remaining in
effect through early Sunday. Residents in these areas should
remain weather ready and PLEASE, if you encounter a flooded road,
TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

Storm activity should wind down through the evening, but another
round of showers and thunderstorms will return to the state
Saturday afternoon and evening as low pressure moves across the
state. Showers could persist overnight and into Sunday with winds
becoming more southeasterly. Meanwhile, afternoon temperatures
remain be in the 90s and overnight temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 70s through the period.
Art
Art
16 days ago

comment image

Art
Art
16 days ago

Dist:3 i think…..whew hope it changes course away from PR…………comment image

carmot
16 days ago

Billionaires Won Corona:
Imagine you’re just finishing your shift as a picker at an Amazon warehouse.

All day long you’ve been carting items for other people, under giant letters on the wall that spell “work hard. have fun. make history.” The pandemic has been hard on you. You can tell from what people are buying that it’s been hard on just about everybody. But as you come off shift, you get life-changing news.

Jeff Bezos, founder and chief executive of Amazon, has decided to give you a bonus. In fact, he has decided to give every single employee of Amazon — some 876,000 people — a one-time pandemic bonus. A $105,000 bonus. Serious money. The kind of money that, if invested over a couple of decades, would give you a real retirement nest egg.

The crazy thing? The money he is giving you — it’s merely the extra wealth he gained during the pandemic, wealth that you built. After he has paid out those $92 billion in bonuses, he will still be comfortably off. In fact, as rich as he was before coronatime.
Of course, Bezos isn’t going to do this. But the fact that he could is one of the striking findings of a new report from Oxfam on plutocratic profiteering from the pandemic.

The report, of which The.Ink got an exclusive preview, makes clear that the billionaire class hasn’t just fiddled while Rome burns. It has made a fortune from the flames.
The pandemic threatens to drive half a billion human beings into poverty around the world, according to the report, which is titled “Power, Profits and the Pandemic.” Even so, 32 of the world’s biggest corporations will see profits swell by $109 billion in 2020.
_______________

I remain steadfast in my belief that community currencies and more specialized and localized manufacturing/production MUST be part of the extreme climate crisis solution. An integral part. More domestic economic development/stimulus, more jobs, better resource control and waste stream management, less emmissions from triple- and quintuple-shipping in the supply chains. Fight against the oligarchs and plutocrats.

Buy more local, support local, keep money local.

jiiski
jiiski
16 days ago
Reply to  carmot

I was just thinking about this today. Very sadly and worriedly.

It’s extremely hard not to go with the lowest price, now more than ever, with so many people losing money one way or another.

The rich are getting richer while many of the not-rich are strenuously pinching pennies.

It’s hard not to see how much more expensive it is to shop at stores that don’t offer Walmart or Amazon discounts — with free delivery. It can easily make hundreds of dollars a month difference on groceries and other goods for a family.

It’s sad and frustrating. I know big companies provide many jobs, and there’s no guarantee that the local businesses treat their employees any better than Amazon or Walmart. But one hates to see Walmart and Amazon making a killing while local business suffer more than ever as people choose not to shop in person so much or at all, especially higher risk individuals.

Listening to the BBC discussing the refugee crises today, I thought about what I had just heard — which was that after WW2 countries were actually squabbling amongst themselves over many (not all) of the refugees — to keep them from leaving, to entice them to return. Every nation needed their labor, their help in rebuilding and remaking communities.

Today, rather than needing them, most countries strain to help them, and many people consider them as expenses, mouths to feed, minds to educate, etc, and dangerous. (Germany is different, but their right wing is rallying ever louder against taking more.)

I thought of how big agriculture and big businesses with their low paying jobs and cheap products, compared to small scale production, seems cruelly necessary to prevent massive starvation. Food and goods have to be cheap to help masses of the unemployed. Masses must have work. We feel it so much with so many laid off due to the pandemic.

I certainly take your ideas and solutions over my own, though. I see how smart you are.
Still, I’m so sad.

My post-war thoughts were spurred by this interview with historian David Nasaw:

https://www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/2020/09/10/911441327/fresh-air-for-sept-10-2020-wwiis-last-million-displaced-people?showDate=2020-09-10

carmot
15 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

Thanks for your thoughtful remarks, Jiiski. I know I can ramble on (I promise I’ll try not to here) about these and so many related topics. I’m a highly visual learner and struggle with podcasts, but I’m trying to get through your link suggestion rn.

Lowering prices come from status quo economics. You know that ‘privatize the profits, socialize the losses’ model. Every dollar that stays in a local economy (not withdrawn to corporations like Starbuck’s/Amazon/WalMart) effectively works like $7+ in spending power. It recirculates and creates more spending/business/taxes/etc. Rethinking Money by Bernard Lietaer and other books by Paul Hawken describe this in detail. More people making decent money would create more consumers – unlike offshoring jobs to cut costs.

I would enjoy more discussion, but this format disallows it. Like how Works Progress Administration (WPA) built the Hoover Dam on budget and on time, comparing that to Boston’s Big Dig or SF’s new Bay Bridge span. I wish more action could be taken to help positively affect those most vulnerable. Not just utilizing inhumane working conditions like WWII work camp examples.

Sorry, I can’t recall if you ever read my ‘Accelerating Yutu Recovery’ proposal from two years ago. I tried to cover some of this. Cheers.

ROBERT PELOT
ROBERT PELOT
15 days ago
Reply to  carmot

the lack of understanding of economics to say that the low level employee built his vast amount of wealth is astounding. That employee probably made paid for his own salary plus some profit if a business is run correctly. Lets take your money and give it to other people? Why not ? Everyone should be fighting for more money, including Bezos. But it is not for you to tell someone else how to run their own business, which Jeff Bezos founded, changed the world, and now gets to be a billionaire. He was not born with it, his ideas made him rich. Stop worrying about what your neighbor has and worry about what you need to do to better your life with out stealing wealth from someone else, and when you make it, you can pay your employees what ever you want.

Vintage Cars
Vintage Cars
15 days ago
Reply to  ROBERT PELOT

You’re right, everyone should fight for more money. We need more unions so people can fight. Plus governments should force Bezos to pay for the real cost of his profits, including the infrastructure he utilizes from we the people setting up an environment where its easy to find and deliver product as a middleman sucking up change from transactions between businesses and consumers. I guess maybe just the pandemic profits would be enough and no need to worry about whether someone else is making more money than others, like you said. Just be fair.

jiiski
jiiski
16 days ago

9/11
Hurricane Hanna shows private border wall will fall into Rio Grande, opposition group says
“Engineering reports related to lawsuits cite erosion after Hurricane Hanna; contractor says problem has been remedied””The critics argued the project would cause erosion that could shift the river’s course, and potentially the border itself. They believe that is now starting to happen, after gashes in the bank appeared under portions of the wall, months after it was built, they said.
“Fisher Industries’ private bollard fence will fail during extreme high flow events and further exacerbate damage at the failure site[s] and to adjacent lands,” wrote Mark Tompkins, an engineer working for the National Butterfly Center, which is claiming the wall could increase flooding on its property. He added that the July Category 1 hurricane was minor compared to large storms often seen there.”
“Mr. Fisher cleared three miles of riverbank, flattened the natural vertical bank into a beach and built the 18-foot wall right next to the water—in contrast to the federal government, which is building the South Texas border wall on levees outside the Rio Grande’s floodplain.”
“We Build the Wall, a nonprofit that claimed credit for the project despite having little role in it, recently saw its leaders, including former Trump adviser Steve Bannon,  accused of defrauding donorswho gave to private border wall efforts. All have pleaded not guilty and are set for trial next year.
Meanwhile, the project’s contractor, North Dakota-based Fisher Industries, continues to receive billions of dollars in government contracts.”Two lawsuits are pushing back against the wall in South Texas—one from the federal agency that enforces border treaties with Mexico and another from a neighboring butterfly preserve. The late August engineering reports came after parties to the lawsuits were granted access to the wall, on private land, to inspect it on Aug. 3. Trials in the suits haven’t yet been scheduled.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-texas-border-wall-will-fall-into-rio-grande-opponents-say-11599768526?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

 

Screen Shot 2020-09-10 at 9.08.55 PM.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
16 days ago

Low shear high SST’s for the Bahamas AOI. This will be a problem. This location is historically problematic. comment image

Art
Art
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

mets are saying this bahama’s tropical wave will be crossing over Florida saturday and might bring flooding rains ..hopefully not too strong on winds etc

Dirk
Dirk
16 days ago

Thank you Dr. Jeff.

WxColorado
WxColorado
16 days ago

Oof, La Niña
this does the Western US no favors, re moisture
As far as the Atlantic Hurricane Season, methinks we’ll be outta names by the end of the month, when the next MJO hits

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
12 days ago
Reply to  WxColorado
Last edited 12 days ago by ChanceShowerLA
Art
Art
16 days ago
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

.Soils remain very saturated along the coast across West Central
and Southwest Florida from above average rainfall accumulations
within the past couple of weeks. A tropical wave is expected to
move across Florida on Saturday bringing increasing atmospheric
moisture to the area and will maintain a heavy rain threat. Given
the antecedent ground conditions, a flooding threat is possible
this weekend.

FLZ050-151-155-160-162-165-131200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0002.200912T1200Z-200913T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinellas-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-
Including the cities of St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Tampa,
Apollo Beach, Westchase, Bradenton, Anna Maria Island, Venice,
Sarasota, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral,
Captiva, and Sanibel
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southwest Florida and west central
  Florida, including the following areas, in southwest Florida,
  Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee. In west central Florida,
  Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and
  Pinellas.

* From Saturday morning through Sunday morning

* Persistent heavy rain pattern along with favorable antecedent
  ground conditions will continue the threat for flooding across
  West Central and Southwest Florida.

* The heavy rainfall will have the potential to cause flooding
  of low-lying and poor drainage areas. Flooding will also
  affect roadways, rivers, creeks, and smaller streams. Remember
  to not drive across flooded roadways. Turn around. Don`t
  drown. Residents living in flood prone areas as well as along
  rivers and faster flowing streams should keep alert to any
  rapid rises in water levels and be ready to move to higher
  ground if flooding is observed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
Andre Brooks
Andre Brooks
16 days ago

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development
of this system is possible while it moves westward and then
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next few days while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of
Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Amature Met
16 days ago

Just saw video of this machine in use in Germany. It mines coal. Said it is the largest machine on land. Says about 15-30 tons a second. No trucks, all convayer belts. Goes straight to the power plant. wow we can really eff some stough up.

bucketwheelexcavator.jpeg
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
16 days ago

Next 48 hours….

comment image

Windsmurf
Windsmurf
16 days ago

If I see Cantore in Florida, then I know for sure that Florida is safe

weblackey
weblackey
16 days ago

The chart!

Last edited 16 days ago by weblackey
O Smith
O Smith
16 days ago
Reply to  weblackey

Click and Clack?

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
16 days ago

Thanks, Dr. Masters!

comment image

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
16 days ago

Warm for our European friends

gfs_euro-lc_t2anom_5-day.png
Canned heat
Canned heat
16 days ago

Okay here in Daytona Beach the forecast for last Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday today Thursday and Friday and Saturday has been 70% to 80% chance of rain. Everyday with 1 to 3 inches of rain everyday in some spots here heavier.. so far we have seen eight or nine drops of rain on Saturday night and it’s been hot and sunny ..so how they forecast is heavy rain for the last 6 days is crazy they’re wrong again

Sue Kaufman
Sue Kaufman
15 days ago
Reply to  Canned heat

Its coming, it just needs to get more organized since its taking its time.

NCHurricane2009
16 days ago

Link to my latest birdseye view chart and post highlighting Paulette, Rene, and the five other areas of interest that have recently been in the NHC tropical weather outlook is finally up at infohurricanes.com This one took me a while to put together given how incredibly busy things are getting in the Atlantic tropics.

I am getting quickly concerned about the new area of interest east of the Bahamas. Based on how it already looks with all those banding features, wouldn’t surprise me if it develops briskly into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours as it passes over the western Bahamas and then south Florida, could also cause problems perhaps for the east Texas coast early this upcoming week.

Terry
Terry
16 days ago

thank you very much for your post! 🙂

accu35
accu35
16 days ago

This one is a more of a problem for the north/east gulf coast not east Texas

accu35
accu35
16 days ago

The “cone” direction brings it from east Louisiana to FL panhandle.

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
16 days ago
  • comment image
Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

faster n faster

WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
16 days ago
  • comment image
WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
16 days ago

….

Last edited 16 days ago by WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
WiFIFoFum
16 days ago

thanks for the update
steady as we go
all ahead full faster and faster

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  WiFIFoFum

so true , faster and faster, u have always said that since 2005 when the facebook group was so busy!

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
16 days ago

Flight density dropping out of the sky is why the models have been not as good this year. Why? Covid-19 is why. Didn’t have to be that way. I know people only want to talk about this busy season, but ignoring the decapitation of science under Trump a’int gonna make it better. Jeff often talks about billion dollar disasters, I say the almost 200,000 dead and untold more to come, is far worse than any billion dollar disaster we’ve ever seen. How I’ve ended up public enemy #1 here is beyond me. In 2020 people hate those telling the truth and love those lying to them. This should not be my old friends.

MattyOrlando
MattyOrlando
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Your TDS is showing.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
16 days ago
Reply to  MattyOrlando

Total Determined Sincerity. Thank you Matty. If the People united over what has been done to us all? We could do some things.

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I agree with you. I alternate between feeling like the dummies deserve what they get and figuring dang, the good folks and children and animals are stuck with it too.

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

BTW for some reason it will not let me upvote your post.

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  SunnyDaysFl

me too , dunno why

Dirk
Dirk
16 days ago
Reply to  Terry

I guess the vote item here is not working that well, he had 5 downvotes i gave him an upvote and it went to 0.

jiiski
jiiski
16 days ago
Reply to  Terry

You had a negative vote, i.e., a downvote. I upvoted you, and it neutralized the downvote, but showed zero votes as the result.
Isn’t that weird.

jiiski
jiiski
16 days ago
Reply to  SunnyDaysFl

It’s weird. It seems that sometimes an upvote will actually neutralize a downvote, so sometimes you upvote someone and it merely subtracts from any downvotes. On the other hand, sometimes I can’t see that anything happens when I upvote, too.

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

Foreign agents are permeating everything.

anon
anon
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I think a lot of people know the truth – but you can only repeat it so many times. Unfortunately the whole political system in the US seems so out of control – its just more interesting to analyze it like you would the weather and not let it get to you. If I vote this year, it will be Green Party – but may not even bother. My main issues Biden doesn’t support, and I won’t compromise, so why keep complaining. It is was it is and its interesting to watch like the weather, but it’s out of our control.

h20.jpg
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
16 days ago
Reply to  anon

I will go back to my hurricane season opines. Thank you for your honest response. I bother because seems like no one else does. I’m bilging hard to keep the boat afloat if you will. I’m not just here opining, you can know I’m many places trying to affect positive change and truth to reign. If I linked whom I knew, well that would be very interesting. It’s not that I’m not well known in certain circles. It’s the Public that is so divided what I know is unable to be received. For so few will even seek it. Jeff, Bob, and many others care deeply for the truth. If the people ever unite? A day ahead I look forward to see. One truth still remains; during a disaster people don’t see politically. We see our neighbors in need. And the good that lies within us all shines forth. I’ve got a lot of hope in our Nation yet.

O Smith
O Smith
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Wyatt, it’s ok. The world is a crazy place, more so now than any time I can remember. Do your own thing, always going to be someone doesn’t agree with you.

jiiski
jiiski
16 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

You’re okay, don’t worry, and you’re so right.

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  jiiski

You bet he is. Comforting to know that some see the true danger. Need more of them.

Ralphy
Ralphy
16 days ago

Seriously who cares about Paulette and Rene they are going out to sea not going to bother anybody and the waves all behind it coming off Africa are all gonna following behind it out to sea also. .. euro. Model just. Showed out to sea with sally. nothing’s happening here on the continental US

jazz_chi
jazz_chi
16 days ago
Reply to  Ralphy

Strange, I thought there was more than one model…

And I could swear some of the ensembles landed a hurricane on a populated island admittedly kinda in the middle of the Atlantic. That Dr. Masters had talked about.

Last edited 16 days ago by jazz_chi
jazz_chi
jazz_chi
16 days ago
Reply to  Ralphy

And then there’s the (oh my goodness is it too far in the future to pay it much mind, but still) model for proto-Sally:

Sally.png
Amature Met
16 days ago

By the time Dr. Masters post The Chart I think you should already have done your hurricane prep and be ready to just sit back and watch the show,,,,,wherever THEY may go.

Buubacanoe
Buubacanoe
16 days ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Well, putting up plywood may be a bit too preemptive.

jason weed
16 days ago

comment image?w=600&h=451 wind shear

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

quote beell
For us drive-by lurkers I wish some of you would identify the system along with your comment.

constructive criticism 🙂

Dirk
Dirk
16 days ago
Reply to  Terry

It seems to be very difficult to put a number or name with the upload strange enough they are generally the same posters who keep doing that.

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Irksome, isn’t it? Always the same. People who can cut paste and put up interesting pictures and graphics at the drop of a hat but can’t put a coherent sentence together. Now, people are ABC’d in computerese and all other such mechanizations the same way people from my age group were taught REAL ABC’s in childhood. The satellite pictures and all else are appreciated for sure but the lack of realization that not all people know of what area they are displaying shows a lack of consideration. Never changes. When I worked in the weather I kept it as humanized as I could and minimized the Skynet way of things. The machines ARE taking over. Not in my world.

SunnyDaysFl
SunnyDaysFl
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

Paulette.

Amature Met
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

Has it cooled down any yet in NJ? Fl be cooken

jason weed
16 days ago

Great updates on the tropics and  La Niña year means more snow for northeast

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

do not remind me of snow just yet> 😉

Deano
Deano
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

Not that simple, kiddo. Other long range indicators point toward a moderate to well above normal winter for the NE temp wise.

anon
anon
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

book skiing this year in the northern rockies, not in New Mexico… I wonder if the border for tourists from the US to ski at whistler will remain closed for the season… usually they get great snow in la Nina.

Patrap
16 days ago

The dreaded chart being posted by Dr. Masters and a loaded Atlantic..

Buckle up..

Itsa gon get bumpy quick.

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Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  Patrap

lol, nice pic! original!

O Smith
O Smith
16 days ago
Reply to  Patrap

….your couch is on fire.

Athena
Athena
16 days ago

I’m loving these great posts! Thank you Doc. M. (and Bob, too).

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  Athena

same!

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
16 days ago

Appreciate you Dr. Masters during this busy time in the Tropics.

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  Sunrisemama

+1

Pottery
Pottery
16 days ago

thanks for this very concise report. Looking on from Trinidad, currently under clear skies after a couple days of rains and plenty lightening…

Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  Pottery

how u doing, glad to see you posting!

jason weed
16 days ago

buzy

two_atl_5d0.png
Terry
Terry
16 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

very very very very very busy , hense the storm count

Deano
Deano
15 days ago
Reply to  jason weed

Too many cooks spoil the broth.

Terry
Terry
16 days ago

Great updates on the tropics and La NiñaThanks Dr Masters!