Hurricane Sally image
The center of Hurricane Sally as seen from NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft “Miss Piggy” (N43RF) on Monday morning, September 14, 2020. No eyewall was present on the side of the storm photographed here. (Image credit: James Carpenter, NOAA)

Hurricane Sally weakened overnight to a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, but the slow-moving storm is expected to bring historic flooding to the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday through Thursday. A widespread area of 10 – 20 inches of rain is expected, with some pockets of 30 inches, accompanied by coastal storm surge flooding of four to seven feet.

Despite its category 1 ranking, Sally is extremely dangerous

At 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September 15, Sally was centered 105 miles south of Mobile, Alabama, headed northwest at 2 mph with top sustained winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 982 mb. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were observed late Tuesday morning at the VK 786/Petronius (Chevron) oil rig offshore from Mobile, Alabama (elevation 525 feet). On Monday, the site measured sustained winds of 100 mph, gusting to 117 mph.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Sally at 12:33 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September 15, 2020. Sally was struggling to close off an eyewall, with the southern side incomplete. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University)

Data from the Hurricane Hunters, satellite, and radar showed no significant changes to Sally’s organization over the 18 hours ending at 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday. The hurricane was well-organized, but was having difficulty establishing a complete eyewall in the face of moderately high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots from upper-level winds out of the west. Sally was bringing heavy rains to the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Mississippi coasts on Tuesday. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 2 – 3 inches had fallen in the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola as of 2 p.m. EDT, with 1 – 2 inches common along the coast of Alabama.

Figure 2
Figure 2. GeoColor visible satellite image of Sally as of 12:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September 15. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Forecast for Sally

Sally is caught in a region of very weak steering currents, and is expected to move very slowly at less than 5 mph until landfall occurs, which could be any time Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The exact location of Sally’s landfall will not matter that much with respect to its chief threats, which are rainfall and storm surge. A swath of the coast including Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle will receive the worst of Sally’s rains and storm surge regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind damage, however, will be of greatest concern near and to the right of where Sally’s center moves ashore.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Predicted landfall wind speed (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) from the 12Z Tuesday, September 15 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Sally would make landfall near Mobile, Alabama, near 2 a.m. EDT (6Z) Wednesday as a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Sally has just about run out of time to build a complete eyewall and embark upon a period of rapid intensification. Increasing wind shear, upwelling of cool waters from below, and interaction with land will all be present between now and landfall to potentially put the brakes on any significant intensification burst that might occur; Sally’s landfall intensity is likely to be between 65 mph and 95 mph.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Rainfall forecast for the four days from 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday, September 15, to 2 a.m. EDT September 19, from the 6Z Tuesday run of the experimental HAFS-B model. Rainfall amounts in excess of 15 inches (yellow colors) were predicted in four states: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. (Image credit: NOAA/AOML, with thanks to Andy Hazelton)

Rainfall and storm surge: the two main concerns with Sally

Regardless of its landfall intensity, the primary damage from Sally is likely to result from the slow-moving storm’s torrential rains. Sally is expected to move at 5 mph or less through Thursday, leading to rainfall measurements in feet rather than in inches.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Observed water levels in Mobile, Alabama. Sally has already brought a storm surge near the threshold for minor flooding during the past two high tide cycles, and is predicted to bring a peak storm surge of 4 – 7 feet. (Image credit: NOAA/AHPS)

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the Gulf Coast in its “High Risk” category for excessive rainfall. It warned of rainfall rates of up to three inches per hour, and a large corridor of 10 – 20 inches of rain near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches. There will be a sharp western cutoff to the heaviest rains, as shown in Figure 4, but the exact placement of that cutoff is still uncertain.

It’s not out of the question that an all-time state precipitation record for a tropical cyclone could fall, though these are tough to beat. The current records along Sally’s path are:

Florida: 45.20 inches (Hurricane Easy, 1950)
Mississippi: 32.21 inches (Hurricane Georges, 1998)
Alabama: 37.75 inches (Hurricane Danny, 1997)
Georgia: 27.85 inches (Tropical Storm Alberto, 1994)

Sally’s storm surge is also a major threat, with 4 – 7 feet of surge predicted to the east of where the center moves ashore. Mobile Bay is of particular concern given the high population density along the coast. The surge in the bay is not expected to approach that of Hurricane Katrina of 2005, which brought a storm tide 10.29 feet above the high tide mark, but flooding may exceed that of Hurricane Nate on October 8, 2017, which brought a storm tide of 5.22 feet.

Tidal range in Mobile, Alabama, is about two feet between low and high tide. The new moon occurs Thursday, and this helped bring one of the higher tides of the month during the 11:37 a.m. CDT Tuesday high tide. Subsequent high tides this week will be progressively lower, bottoming out on Friday about five inches lower than Tuesday’s high tide. High tide Wednesday is at 1:01 p.m. CDT, and at that time Mobile could see its greatest storm tide flooding. Storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the tide.

Trabus Technologies maintains a live storm surge tracker for Sally. As of 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the peak surges measured at NOAA tide gauges from Sally were:

4.8 feet at Shell Beach, Louisiana (east-southeast of New Orleans)
3.8 feet at Pilottown, Louisiana (near the mouth of the Mississippi River)
3.2 feet at Waveland, Mississippi
3.2 feet at New Canal Station, Louisiana
2.7 feet at Apalachicola, Florida

A storm surge of approximately 3.5 feet had moved up the Mississippi River to New Orleans as of 1 p.m. EDT Tuesday, and it is predicted to peak at about 4.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon – a height about 10 feet below the tops of the levees.

Figure 6
Figure 6. GeoColor visible satellite image of the hectic Atlantic at 12 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September 15. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/Colorado State University)

Paulette headed out to sea after a direct hit on Bermuda

Hurricane Paulette scored a direct hit on the island of Bermuda on Monday, with the hurricane’s 40-mile-wide eye encompassing virtually the entire island at 5 a.m. EDT. At landfall, Paulette was a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The hurricane’s winds increased to 90 mph while Bermuda was in the eye; at 9 a.m. EDT, when the rear eyewall was pounding the island, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Paulette to a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda, reported a sustained wind of 80 mph and a gust to 107 mph around 10 a.m. EDT Monday.

Paulette knocked out power to 25,000 of the 36,000 customers on Bermuda on Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, power had been restored to all but 6,000 customers, according to The Royal Gazette. No deaths or serious injuries were reported, though roads were blocked by debris and roof damage occurred.

At 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Paulette was a category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, speeding to the northeast at 29 mph into the open Atlantic. Paulette has a chance to become a major category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on Tuesday night before increased wind shear and cooler waters induce a weakening trend on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Rene gives up the ghost

Dry air and high wind shear finally destroyed Tropical Depression Rene on Monday afternoon, in the waters several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Teddy in the central Atlantic nearing hurricane strength

Tropical Storm Teddy, which formed in the central Atlantic on Monday, was headed west-northwest at 13 mph at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday with top sustained winds of 65 mph.

Teddy is expected to turn to the northwest on Tuesday night, well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands. Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Conditions for intensification will be very favorable this week, and Teddy is predicted to be a major hurricane by Thursday night. Bermuda and the Canadian Maritime provinces should keep an eye on Teddy, as the storm could potentially affect them next week.

Tropical Storm Vicky in the Eastern Atlantic expected to dissipate

Tropical Storm Vicky formed on Monday in the eastern Atlantic, about 350 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Prior to formation, the tropical wave that spawned Vicky brought deadly flooding to Praia, capital of the Cabo Verde Islands, where three inches of rain fell on September 12. The floods killed one person and caused substantial damage to infrastructure and agriculture.

At 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Vicky was headed west-northwest at 9 mph, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. Vicky will have highly unfavorable conditions for development through Wednesday, with sea surface temperatures near 26 Celsius (79°F) and extremely high wind shear of 45 – 60 knots. Vicky is expected to be a remnant low by Wednesday night and is not a threat to any land areas.

Figure 7
Figure 7. Track forecast for 98L from the 6Z Tuesday, September 15, run of the GFS ensemble forecast. The black line is the mean forecast from the 21 member forecasts. Several of the thin lines (color-coded by pressure) from the individual members predicted a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Eastern Atlantic tropical wave 98L has high potential to develop

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday was designated 98L by the National Hurricane Center. This wave has favorable conditions for development this week, with moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots predicted, along with warm ocean temperatures of 27.5 – 28.5 Celsius (82 – 83°F) and a moist atmosphere. The system has modest model support for development, and is predicted to move west to west-northwest at about 10 – 15 mph, reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands around Tuesday, September 22. It is too early to tell if 98L will affect the islands yet.

In its 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 98L two-day and five-day odds of development of 50% and 70%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Wilfred, which is the last name on the list.

Keeping an eye on Gulf of Mexico disturbance

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday was monitoring an area of interest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which was producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while this system meanders over the Gulf of Mexico this week. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots are likely to keep this system from developing, but this disturbance did have greater model support for development from Tuesday morning’s cycle of model runs than on previous days. In its 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

A new northeast Atlantic threat area for Portugal to watch

A non-tropical low-pressure system was located on Tuesday afternoon over the far northeastern Atlantic, several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This low was designated 99L by the National Hurricane Center and is forecast to move south-southeast during the week, approaching Portugal on Saturday.

Unusually warm sea temperatures fueled Harvey’s devastating rains

This low has marginal conditions for development into a subtropical cyclone, with high wind shear of 20 – 40 knots predicted this week, along with cold ocean temperatures of 19 – 22 Celsius (66 – 72°F). In its 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 99L two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted on September 15, 2020 (3:52pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Skyepony
10 days ago

70kt gust right now in Ferry Pass. Sun is coming up on Sally..

09161146Sally.gif
Terry
Terry
10 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony
Terry
Terry
10 days ago

quote YCC “You have these basically pristine ecosystems that are being altered by rapid climate change,” O’Donnell said. “So it’s kind of an optimal place for testing hypotheses about climate.”

Great read thanks YCC abrupt climate change is real!

Terry
Terry
10 days ago
Reply to  Terry

time stamped 9/16/2020

hf.png
Art
Art
11 days ago

Tornado Warning
FLC005-013-063-133-161100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0066.200916T1028Z-200916T1100Z/

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
528 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…
South central Jackson County in the Panhandle of Florida…
Northeastern Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida…
Northwestern Calhoun County in the Panhandle of Florida…
East central Washington County in the Panhandle of Florida…

* Until 600 AM CDT.

* At 528 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 14 miles west of Blountstown, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Jackson, northeastern Bay, northwestern Calhoun and
east central Washington Counties in the Panhandle of Florida,
including the following locations… Betts, Moose Pond, Center
Lake, Ridgetop, Round Lake, Fountain, Compass Lake and Camps Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

Art
Art
11 days ago

NWS Mobile AL..Due to the slow movement of Sally, a prolonged heavy rain event is expected and HISTORIC flash flooding is unfolding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with localized amounts of 25-30 inches are likely across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago

Swiss model with gusts of medicane “Ianos”, landfalling in Greece:
comment image

Last edited 11 days ago by BarbaraGermany
Jeremy
Jeremy
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Long time no see, Barb. Viele Grüße aus Berlin.

largeeyes

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago
Reply to  Jeremy

Ah, that’s nice! Still in Berlin, suffering German climate, I see. Greetings to you as well!

Jeremy
Jeremy
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Jop. Nice and warm right now….my boss is actually on Paxos south of Korfu now….should be interesting for him!

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Track with Mesoscale discussion by Estofex: https://www.estofex.org/
comment image

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Excerpt from Estofex discussion:
“The models are initially in fairly good agreement and predict a rather quick intensification during the next 36 hours until above hurricane speed, aided by high sea surface temperatures near 27C and a lack of relatively dry air at mid-levels.”

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

abrupt climate change

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago

comment image
Met Office Storms @metofficestorms 16 Min.
An area of low pressure over the Mediterranean Sea has developed characteristics of a tropical storm and has been named #Ianos by the National Observatory of Athens. It is expected to come ashore over southern Greece as a vigorous storm on Friday. #medicane

Current presentation of Ianos, source:
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/291b85a677a07ffb2b3056b70ce648e7/satellit-hd-5min/20200916-0845z.html

comment image

Last edited 11 days ago by BarbaraGermany
Art
Art
11 days ago
FXUS62 KTBW 160723
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
323 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.DISCUSSION...
As Hurricane Sally lifts north through Alabama today, deep
tropical moisture will continue to wrap around the southeast side
of the system, setting up southerly/southeasterly flow over the
forecast area. Swells moving onshore from Sally will lead to tides
running a bit above normal along the Nature Coast today and
Thursday, with minor coastal flooding possible during high tides.
Farther south, the swells breaking onshore will continue the high
risk of rip currents at area beaches through Thursday.

As Sally pulls away to the northeast, it will drag a surface
trough into the Florida Peninsula that will linger into the
weekend, keeping a moist airmass in place through early next
week. This pattern will favor scattered to widespread
thunderstorms each day, with the possibility of storms lingering
overnight. As the boundary sags through the forecast area,
slightly drier dew points are expected across the Nature Coast,
but no significant air mass changes are expected farther south.

Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will build into Florida from
the north, with drier air filling into the area. This will limit
rain chances, with scattered showers and storms expected each
afternoon.

&&
Art
Art
11 days ago

comment image

Tweek
Tweek
11 days ago

Pressure 965.3

Skyepony
11 days ago

Sally..

09160340Sally.png
Tweek
Tweek
11 days ago

Pressure of 968.4 for Sally

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
11 days ago

Has anyone ever tested the air in a hurricane to see if it is different than usual? I’m thinking that CO2 levels could be lower because it is adsorbed into the ocean and rainwater.

Skyepony
11 days ago
Reply to  PartyLikeSpock

Looked at it using Nasa’s GMAO chem maps over the years. Just depends on the storm. Some have smoke or dust, seen SO2 after going over a volcano. CO biomass burning/Black Carbon increase after passing over areas polluted with it. Sally is a swirl of fairly clean air compared to the rest of the country & pollution/smoke coming from the west this week. She is full of Sea salt aerosols, which is pretty common for a hurricane. Paulette is also packing salt.

SallySeasalt.png
Skyepony
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Black Carbon AOT (thru the whole column of air..) Seems like about worse I’ve seen for North America.

SallyBlkCarbon.png
PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Wow, the Black Carbon seems to have maxed-out the scale in most places!

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

climate change

FortMorganAL Fisherman
FortMorganAL Fisherman
11 days ago
Reply to  PartyLikeSpock

So air smelled of heavy sea salt mid morning here on eastern shore of mobile bay.

I drove through Lake Charles the Friday afternoon after landfall on the way to Houston and the air reeked of that sulphur smell – I assumed it was from the muddy marshes between coast and Lake Charles – that mud marsh sulphuric smell – that it was picked up and redeposited. It was strong, nasty, and I incurred it over 20 miles.

FortMorganAL Fisherman
FortMorganAL Fisherman
11 days ago

We are dark – no power as of an hour ago. Live in Fairhope on eastern shore or mobile bay. Steady around 45ish with some strong gusts over 55ish. Been raining for over 13 hours now. Concerned for trees falling when we get stronger bands in 8+ hours.

at 10 pm advisory right before power cut off I saw it looks to be heading more NE than N, moving us from dirty side to cleaner side I believe.

also think lower mb may result in stronger than expected increase. Any insight to that please.

storm all day was ho hum minor but just wet and picked up quite a bit around 8:30-9:00.

feel fortunate this is cat1 and not 3 or more – so slow it’d be castrophic.

btw doing this on a cell phone, there are formatting issues / kinda difficult

TybeeTime (SS)
TybeeTime (SS)
11 days ago

Lots of inbound purple (110+ mph) velocities showing up now on Mobile radar. 4k feet off the deck.

EBD13A9F-83CF-4378-BDF1-C592F6F27013.png
TybeeTime (SS)
TybeeTime (SS)
11 days ago
Reply to  TybeeTime (SS)

Wave-like mesovortices in the western eyewall, too. Laura had these as well as it was peaking.

FDCA237B-199D-4851-9BF4-5FE5CB852E0B.png
Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
11 days ago

Mobile radar. Super res reflectivity Tilt 1
Click to enlarge

Saved Video.png
Last edited 11 days ago by Barefootontherocks
Skyepony
11 days ago

NWS Mobile warning against dying in your attic..

SallyNWSmobileSurvive.png
Last edited 11 days ago by Skyepony (mod)
Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Yep

Skyepony
11 days ago

comment image?hash=49867

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

beautiful “she” is

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago

Everyone in landfall area should be in an interior room throughout the duration of Hurricane Sally. Trees will be down by the millions, brown ocean affect will make rainfall rates and inland flooding at rates that will be historic and life threatening. An intensifying waterlogged hurricane is making landfall at near stalled speeds in the next hours, to as late as tomorrow afternoon. This is going to be surreal what people witness and experience over the next 24 hours. comment image

Skyepony
11 days ago

Sally throwing a little lightning.

09160040Sally.png
Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

here we go

Dirk
Dirk
11 days ago

Sally doesn´t want to make landfall yet:

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Dirk

natural balance

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Terry

seems climate change is helping them stall

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago

85mph 972mb update for Hurricane Sally. Deepening and could go stronger over d-max. If we had a final intensity to half R.I, Hurricane Sally would top out at 100mph 964mb roughly. Gulf Coast historic disaster unfolding. Hurricane Sally needs to come ashore tonight not tomorrow afternoon. Do not take chances.

Last edited 11 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago

Best Hurricane Sally has looked. First time we’ve seen an eye trying to clear. Still open to the southwest. Yet clearing. Pressure will continue to drop. Mobile Bay, Mobile and areas near landfall may experience 20-30 inch rainfall. Historic rainfall life threatening situation developing. Take precautions to protect life now.comment image

Art
Art
11 days ago

good night folks

Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

nite nite art .

Art
Art
11 days ago

and 80 mph winds arent anything to sneeze at either,,and with all this rain and tidal surge flooding i bet alot of tree’s come down too..gee..be alert and safe out there

Art
Art
11 days ago

somehow i just cannot imagine..20 inches of rain falling in one place? over a day or even two? “historic flooding” might be the best description huh

Eddi Haskell
Eddi Haskell
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

We had over 22 inches of rain in a 24 hour period in a freak event in January 2014 in South Palm Beach County. It was non tropical in nature. Several people died driving in water deeper than they bargained for and tens of millions in flooding damage resulted.

download.png
serialteg
serialteg
11 days ago
Reply to  Art
Him-icane
Him-icane
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

Short answer: ever been behind a waterfall? Well maybe not that extreme, but not as far from it as you might think.

Ineluki
Ineluki
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

During Hurricane Isabel in 2003, the most rain from it in one location was a place in Virginia that got 20 inches. Hurricanes do crazy things in a short time frame.

Dirk
Dirk
11 days ago

Thanks again Dr.Jeff and Bob Henson, there is enough to look out for just hope things don´t get to much out of hands.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
11 days ago

Tertiary relationship with the topic: the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel announced that Solar Cycle 25 officially began this past December. At least 2020 did not coincide with a Solar Maximum. Considering the type of year it’s been, had it overlapped, we would no doubt be texting via pigeons right now. The ultimate tweet.

Art
Art
11 days ago
(clip)...000
WTNT34 KNHC 152354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
serialteg
serialteg
11 days ago
Reply to  Art

975, strengthening… will it have time to mix down corresponding winds to the surface?

Vanessa E Hall
Vanessa E Hall
11 days ago

Thank you for the update, Jeff Masters. I really appreciate the writing ability it takes to put all of the information into a well-written form that’s easy to comprehend.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago

Hurricane Sally has been a northeast heavy laden storm as the NHC and experts predicted. While not annular, Sally has taken on a large eye that has annular characteristics. Allowed Hurricane Sally to fight off the dry air, and may allow it to remain a similar strength till landfall. D-max could lower pressures tonight a little, if the eye were to clear, a final burst of intensity before lanfall is still possible.comment image

Last edited 11 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago

Flash flood warnings from Panama City, Florida, to the Mississippi border right now. Many of the areas under flash flooding now expected to get twice the amount they’re already gotten. Landfall early morning or tomorrow afternoon will make a huge difference in how bad the flooding gets. http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/MOB_loop.gif?7a98b2f24410c616dcb75735a0b3280a

Last edited 11 days ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
11 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

To downvote vital information by the legion of trolls here is dangerous and I hope YCC gets this under control and fast.

Terry
Terry
11 days ago

climate change is real! times up!

df.png
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago

Thanks for the new article, Doc – especially with the stunning photo of Sally’s cloud layers at the entrance!

mitthbevnuruodo
mitthbevnuruodo
11 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Heya Barb 🙂 Indeed, I’m loving that photo!

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
10 days ago

Hi Bev! 🙂

Luis Montero
Luis Montero
11 days ago

Thank you Dr. Masters for giving me more of a heads-up on Invest 98L. I have been living with my wife in Caguas, Puerto Rico for a little over two years, about to move back with her to the Miami area, and am keeping an eye on what is coming this way. We moved here about nine months after Hurricane Maria and at that time street lights at certain major intersections were still not functioning. Even on the highway you relied on your headlights. To this day you can still see certain trees that had their hair chopped off. As a high school teacher, I remember one of my students here saying that they just didn’t take it seriously because the previous storms had diverted before hitting land. As the storm took place in September, their entire school year was seriously affected. My neighbor downstairs described tossing out water in buckets for hours through the night to prevent his home from being overwhelmed with water. People have described it like a bomb passed through here. When they woke up in the morning, all the trees were bare, a scene of devastation. You recall the significant loss of life here. The psychological effect on the people I cannot fathom; only those who passed through it can understand. I admire these people for what they endured. Thank God they have gradually rebuilt and–despite the earthquakes and tremors of the last year which added to their trauma–no storm of the magnitude of Maria has returned. This summer’s first storm was impactful, but it didn’t pack the punch that Hurricane Maria did.

I just discovered this website last night after a Google search, and am very impressed by the beautiful and detailed graphics, such as projections on rainfall, wind speed and the potential pathways of the storms. For a while I have been visiting the National Hurricane Center site regularly, but I appreciate the articles and greater level of detail here. The picture up top of Hurricane Sally is remarkable, and the comment section is also pretty interesting. A website such as yours engages people to be better prepared.

As a former resident of Connecticut who has walked through your campus it is nice to connect with your university. I look forward to returning to this site! May God bless you and the other participants here, as well as the people in the pathway of these storms.

T B
T B
11 days ago

Despite the snark, Overhype manages to highlight a very important question in science communication: How can experts effectively convey the potential consequences of something with so much inherent uncertainty to the general public without building up expectations and setting them up for disappointment (if you can call dodging a hurricane a disappointment) when things don’t pan out? If it happens too often it can lead to attitudes like this or people ignoring evacuation orders when a big storm does hit.

Last edited 11 days ago by T B
Barfolomew
Barfolomew
11 days ago
Reply to  T B

It’s a good question. Experts “hyped” a situation by noting potential (yet unlikely) upper-end severe impacts which do not materialize. The same experts provided inadequate warning by not communicating the same potential (yet unlikely) upper-end severe impacts which then do materialize.

Makes you wonder if Overhype has the same response when a tornado watch is issued and expires without a tornado touching down in his particular county.

Last edited 11 days ago by Barfolomew
greiner3
greiner3
11 days ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

Overhype is just one of 40% of the population; easily manipulated and reactionary in their outlook.

I’d go so far as to believe he is a bot; nonsensical at times and poor grammar are tells.

Jason
Jason
11 days ago
Reply to  T B

The NHC does an excellent job of conveying the necessary information needed for decision making in the most concise way possible. Unfortunately many people struggle with understanding uncertainty in both measurement and interpretation. I don’t think it’s a failing of the person but rather a failing of society and education to give equal emphasis to both point and range estimates. I’ve worked in many industries and have always found the use of uncertainty in decision making severely lacking.

greiner3
greiner3
11 days ago
Reply to  T B

I say it’s the lack of qualified science writers. These are the people who are able to understand the science and also able to write in layman’s terms.

I think it’s a sign of the times; science and scientists are vilified by a large portion of the population, conspiracy theories are rampant and certain media that only reinforce that image.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
11 days ago

Thank goodness for wind shear, dry air entrainment, and upwelling!

jazz_chi
jazz_chi
11 days ago

The 1- and 3-day forecasts nailed the current position but over and under estimated the intensity by 15kts, respectively. The 2-day forecast nailed the intensity, but was off by 100 mi. For an area of little steering and competing intensity dynamics, I’d say they did pretty decently.

jazz_chi
jazz_chi
11 days ago

This is a Cat 4 stupid comment. All-time rainfall records might be in reach for a storm that was always predicted to be more a rain-maker than a wind-maker which, oh yeah, hasn’t even made landfall yet – and it’s already “overly hyped”? It’s pretty dangerous to be out right now for a wide swath of coast and it might not even make landfall for another freaking DAY.

And then you have the rest of the year. Last year we had TEN storms after this point. There will be at least two more positive MJO periods before the season starts truly winding down. If you want to make a bet on no more storms, I’ll take your money.

elioe
elioe
11 days ago
PedleyCA
PedleyCA
11 days ago

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
11 days ago
Reply to  PedleyCA

Hello Ped,
Are you Ok with all those fires in your area?
Things look bad and we are getting lots of reports of devastation. Hope you are OK in your zone.

PedleyCA
PedleyCA
11 days ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

Just a bunch of filthy air, PM 2.5 is 108-127 either side of me. Mask up and go about your business. At least I can stay inside till I run low on food….

AKI MAKI
AKI MAKI
11 days ago

Thank you Dr. Masters for your concise article.

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
11 days ago

Thank you so much for the informative update and projections of the storm Sally, I do so hope that there is time for all preparations to be completed and that the storm weakens before landfall to the extent that its does not cause too much damage.

Just to make things even bit more interesting, in addition to there being 6 storms in the Atlantic Basin with either names or numbers, there is probably about Thursday going to be a “Medicane” to the south of Italy, which will move over to threaten Greece. This will bring winds of about 100 MPH plus and lots of damage.
I will keep my eye on the situation as people in the Med area are not as aware as you in the USA of the potential damage that these types of storms can bring.

PedleyCA
PedleyCA
11 days ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

How you doing Red?

PlazaRed
PlazaRed
11 days ago
Reply to  PedleyCA

Hi Ped,
I am still drawing breath and waiting for the odd shower on Friday, they tell me.

Apart from that things are very steady here in Spain and there is a lot of this virus thing about, over 30,000 deaths here now and well over 500,000 cases. Nothing bothering me at the moment and I am just treading water until the phase of life, whatever it should be comes along.

You take care with those wildfires in your zone!

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
11 days ago
Reply to  PlazaRed

Hi, Plaza! Yes, exciting times with a medicane forming to boot.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
11 days ago

I remember like 15 years ago when I thought Climate Change was a hoax.

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
11 days ago

Thank you for the update and great information, Dr. Masters.

I find it interesting that there has not been much said about evacuation orders related to Hurricane Sally. New Orleans issued an evacuation order for “areas outside the levee system” on Sunday, but today they’re saying city services will be back to normal as of tomorrow. Some areas in Florida’s Panhandle have suggested voluntary evacuations. I assume there are other areas that are mandating or recommending evacuations, but I’m sure not seeing much about that on the internet today.

Last edited 11 days ago by Ed Stock
elioe
elioe
11 days ago

Thank you for the post! Greece is also threatened during coming days.

SuzannaDanna
SuzannaDanna
11 days ago

Thank you…but I think it is still September 15th. Time is flying by not quite so fast that it is already October 15th.

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
11 days ago
Reply to  SuzannaDanna

Yes, unfortunately.

WxManWannaBe
WxManWannaBe
11 days ago

Thank You Dr. Masters for the excellent Update on Sally and the rest of the Atlantic Tropics; this season, and current period, is remarkable and historic. Not going to help (in terms of more storms) that we are hitting the La Nina threshold as well (portion of BOM advisory from today below) with another MJO pulse headed into the Atlantic downstream (around October)

ENSO OutlookAn alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation15 September 2020

A La Niña ALERT remains.  

Key indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are at or approaching La Niña thresholds. This includes further cooling in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fortnight to levels just shy of the La Niña thresholds, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been at La Niña values since late August.  All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate further cooling is likely, and that La Niña thresholds are likely to be met in October and will continue until at least the end of the year. 

CubanCane
11 days ago
Reply to  WxManWannaBe

Incorrect! The next pules of the MJO is slated to arrive in the western ATL no later than the last week of September.. NOT early October. As of now, absolutely everything under the sun indicates that October is shaping up to be an extremely active and dangerous one, perhaps unprecedentedly so I fully expect October to deliver FL its next Wilma. Additionally I expect November to deliver us our next Paloma as well. If the long-range CFS is to be believed, the western Carib. is poised to become one helluva hotbed for tropical cyclone formation over the next 4-8 weeks, at least. You’ve been forewarned, Wammie.

Start bracing yourself for what’s to come.

This hurricane season promises to keep on delivering right through Thanksgiving!

Terry
Terry
11 days ago

Thanks again for the updates ! quite concerning!

0920_Fig5_mobile-surge-sep15.png
Skyepony
11 days ago

Nice update. The Atlantic is crazy active.
Little swirl pulling together off Jacksonville too..

09151950JaxSwirlWUNIDS_map.gif
Terry
Terry
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

wowzers

Rainman32
Rainman32
11 days ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Locals have been saying very good chance of Noreaster off Jax coast this weekend.

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
11 days ago
Reply to  Rainman32

Jacksonville NWS forecast discussion says:
The cold front will press through northeast FL Friday night. This will
bring a northeasterly wind surge this weekend. This surge maintains
itself over our coastal counties into early next week. Some of
the guidance is suggesting potential for heavy rainfall along
portions of the northeast Florida coastline this weekend and early
next week potentially developing a significant flood threat to
the coastal counties of SE GA and NE FL while drier airmass works
into the interior sections of region. Will need to monitor this
closely in later guidance through the week.”

I live about 50 miles south of Jacksonville, so I’ll keep an eye on this. The nice part of the forecast is that highs early next week might be only 80 to 85. Sweet!