Precipitation forecast
Rainfall outlook (in inches) for the week-long period from 2 am EDT (6Z) Tuesday, September 29, 2020, through 2 am EDT Tuesday, October 6, from the 6Z Tuesday, September 29, run of the GFS model. The model predicted rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches (yellow-orange colors) for portions of Mexico and Central America. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

The enjoyable lull in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the past week may come to an end this weekend, when a large low-pressure system that is expected to develop in the western Caribbean has a 50% chance of spawning a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Papin tweet

A large, complex area of low pressure called the Central American Gyre (CAG) will develop in the western Caribbean late this week, generating heavy rain as it moves slowly west-northwest. CAGs tend to develop near the beginning and end of the Atlantic hurricane season, and they can sprawl over hundreds of miles. They are notoriously long-lasting and slow-moving, making them prodigious rain producers. For more background, Phillipe Papin is an expert on CAGs (click here to animate his tweet, shown right), and he maintains an excellent CAG forecast page.

As smaller-scale vortexes spin around the CAG, one or more of them can consolidate into a tropical cyclone and eventually break away from the gyre. That outcome can happen in either the Atlantic or the Pacific. For example, on May 31, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Storm Amanda, developed from a CAG, and it made landfall on the south coast of Guatemala later that day. In October 2018, after a week of gestation, a disturbance on the north end of a CAG became a tropical depression in the western Caribbean. Three days later, that depression had detached from the gyre and barreled into the Florida Panhandle as mighty category 5 Hurricane Michael.

The exact location and timing of any tropical cyclones that may develop from this week’s CAG cannot yet be predicted with much probability of success. If the CAG does manage to spawn a hurricane in the coming week, the most likely location for a storm would be in the waters of the extreme northwest Caribbean, near western Cuba and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. It is more likely that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm would form farther to the south, as predicted by the 6Z Tuesday run of the GFS Ensemble Forecast System (Figure 1).

Figure 1
Figure 1. Predictions for 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Saturday, October 3, from the 6Z Tuesday, September 29, run of the recently updated and expanded GFS ensemble forecast system (GEFS), of the locations of surface low- and high-pressure systems. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

In that figure, predicted locations of centers of low pressure are shown as orange numbers in millibars, with the leading “10” or “9” omitted, depending on whether the low’s central pressure were above or below 1000 mb. For example, a 999-mb low pressure center will be displayed as “99”, and a 1000-mb low pressure system will be displayed as “00”. In blue numbers, with the leading “10” left off, are the predicted locations of centers of high pressure. For example, a 1020-mb high pressure system will be coded as “20”. Each of the 31 forecasts from the individual members generated a different location and central pressure for major high- or low-pressure systems. The color-coding is a measure (in standard deviations) of ensemble spread – the difference in pressure between the ensemble mean and the individual member. Six ensemble members predicted a hurricane-strength system with a pressure of 985 mb or lower in the western Caribbean on Saturday. These were color-coded orange, showing a high spread from the ensemble mean, since their central pressure differed greatly from the mean predicted pressure.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average on September 29. SSTs were approximately 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.8°F) above average in the Caribbean. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Even busy hurricane seasons have extended lulls

Even the busiest hurricane seasons have lulls. For example, during the record-busy 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Irene was named on August 7, but the next storm, Jose, didn’t get named until August 22.

Lulls like these are usually caused by sinking air over the tropics, leading to drying, high pressure, and reduced odds of tropical storm formation. Sinking air is caused by an unfavorable state of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), or by the suppressed phase of an atmospheric disturbance called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the equator that moves around the globe in 30 to 60 days; odds of tropical cyclone formation increase when the MJO is strong and located in the proper location, but typically decrease for ocean basins not in the active portion of the MJO. Similarly, a CCKW is a large but subtle atmospheric impulse, centered on the equator, that rolls eastward at 30-40 mph, with showers and thunderstorms along its forward flank. On either side of this center of action, sinking air, high pressure, and reduced odds of tropical storm formation typically occur.

Passage of the suppressed phase of a CCKW and an unfavorable MJO have been acting to dampen Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since last week, but that situation will change by mid-October. With ocean temperatures still much above average (Figure 2) and a season that has a proven track record for spitting out large numbers of named storms, we likely will see at least three named storms form in October. As discussed above, there is even a chance of one spinning up this weekend in the western Caribbean, despite the relatively unfavorable MJO.

Figure 3
Figure 3. In this velocity potential (VP) anomaly plot* from September 29, the MJO brings positive 200 mb VP anomalies (yellow colors) and reduced odds of tropical cyclone formation to the Caribbean (top). However, by mid-October, this pattern is predicted to shift, with negative 200 mb VP anomalies (blue colors) over the Caribbean. (Image credit: Michael Ventrice).

August 2020 was the world’s second-warmest August on record, NOAA reports

*The amount of rising or sinking air can be inferred from the 200 mb velocity potential (VP) departure from average (also called the anomaly). Negative 200 mb VP anomalies mean that upper-level winds at the 200 mb level are diverging, causing rising air from below to replace the air diverging away at high altitudes. This rising air helps nurture thunderstorm updrafts, and favors low pressure and increased chances of tropical cyclone formation. Conversely, positive 200 mb VP anomalies imply converging air aloft, where sinking air, high pressure, and dry conditions will be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. In this plot, negative 200 mb VP anomalies (divergence) are cool-colored contours (the scale shows the departure from average in standard deviations); positive 200 mb VP anomalies (convergence) are warm-colored contours.

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Posted on September 29, 2020 (2:31pm EDT).

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Brassmonkey
Brassmonkey
22 days ago

Is the other blog finally gone?

Art
Art
22 days ago
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

FLZ059-064-022000-
/O.EXT.KMLB.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-201002T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Lucie-Martin-
Including the cities of Port Saint Lucie, Fort Pierce,
Hobe Sound, Jensen Beach, Port Salerno, and Stuart
1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of east central Florida, including the following
  areas, Martin and St. Lucie.

* Through Friday afternoon

* Heavy, persistent showers and isolated lightning storms from
  early this morning produced rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches
  locally across coastal areas of Martin County and 3 to 5 inches
  in coastal Saint Lucie County. Additional showers and isolated
  storms are forecast through tonight and into Friday morning.
  Additional flooding will be possible especially in urban, low
  lying, and already saturated areas. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
  inches are expected through tonight and into Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.

&&

$$
Art
Art
22 days ago

comment image

NCHurricane2009
22 days ago

My latest birdseye view chart and discussion at this link concerning the Atlantic tropics, discuss the western Caribbean disturbance, the tropical wave currently en route to the Lesser Antilles, and also a tropical wave over western Africa.

Terry
Terry
22 days ago

hmm

good point wxwanabe.gif
Terry
Terry
22 days ago
Reply to  Terry

Vmax

vort max.gif
Navin Singh
22 days ago

You will get lots of heavy rain as moisture streams northeastward along the stationary front, even if the center stays as far west as the Yucatan or WGOM. A stronger system goes more North and less West, which will contribute to rain over Florida this weekend even if the center is far away in the W/CGOM.

Art
Art
22 days ago

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
854 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

FLC085-011600-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.W.0020.201001T1254Z-201001T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Martin FL-
854 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Warning for…
Eastern Martin County in east central Florida…

* Until noon EDT.

* At 854 AM EDT, emergency management reported flooding is occurring
across eastern Martin County after between 5.5 and 7 inches of
rain fell earlier this morning. While the heavy rain has ended,
any additional rainfall will become an issue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include…
Stuart, Jupiter Island, Port Salerno, Hobe Sound, Palm City,
Jensen Beach, Sewalls Point, Hobe Sound Beach, Witham Field,</span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Jonathan Dickinson State Park, North River Shores, Ocean Breeze</span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Park, Hobe Sound Wildlife Refuge and Rio.</span>

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...</span>

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All</span>
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.</span>

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Turn around, dont drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

Art
Art
22 days ago

well storms aside..it is one Beautiful day here in west central Florida..hope its the same where you all live

Last edited 22 days ago by Art