Hurricane Laura powered its way to major hurricane status overnight, putting on an impressive display of rapid intensification over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Laura is headed towards a landfall expected Wednesday night or early Thursday morning in northeastern Texas or western Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane, and is expected to cause “catastrophic” wind and storm surge damage, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Rain squalls from Laura’s outer spiral bands were already affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday morning, and they will increase in intensity throughout the day.
Laura rapidly intensified by an impressive 50 mph in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, with the winds rising from 75 mph to 125 mph and the pressure falling from 990 mb to 956 mb. This far exceeds the definition of rapid intensification, which is a 24 mb drop in 24 hours. Buoy 42395, located just east of Laura’s eye on Wednesday morning, reported sustained winds of up to 76 mph, wind gusts as high as 107 mph, and a wave height of 37 feet (11 meters).
At 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Laura was already generating a storm surge of 1 – 3 feet along much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts; the largest surges, between 2.5 – 3 feet, were at Shell Beach, Louisiana, located to the southeast of New Orleans, and Freshwater Canal Locks, on the south-central coast of Louisiana. Laura’s storm surge can be tracked using the Trabus Technologies Storm Surge Live Tracker or the NOAA Tides and Currents page for Laura.
Laura continues to rapidly intensify
At 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Laura was located over the waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, about 235 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. These waters were a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F). Laura was headed northwest at 15 mph with top sustained winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 956 mb, putting it just 5 mph below category 4 strength.
Satellite images and data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Laura has closed off a large eye about 30 miles in diameter. Intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops surrounded the eye and extended high into the atmosphere. The eye had not yet fully cleared out, which likely will occur by Wednesday afternoon as the hurricane continues to intensify.
High-level cirrus clouds were streaming out to the east and south of Laura, indicating good upper-level outflow on that side. Upper-level outflow was steadily improving to the north and west, showing that Laura was establishing a second outflow channel that connected up with the trough of low pressure over the central U.S. This improved outflow structure will help Laura intensify further on Wednesday afternoon. Laura was embedded in a moderately dry region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, but this dry air was not hindering the hurricane anymore, as the moderate wind shear of 10 – 15 knots affecting the storm was not high enough to drive the dry air into the well-developed inner core.
Landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border imminent
There’s not much mystery on where Laura is going. The hurricane has made its expected turn to the northwest, and is headed toward a landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border around midnight Wednesday night. After landfall, Laura will turn to the north, following steering currents from a trough of low pressure over the central U.S. The rapidly weakening storm will then turn to the east on Friday, passing through the Tennessee Valley on its way to the mid-Atlantic coast, where it will move out to sea by Sunday.
Intensification expected until just before landfall
Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), and Laura will be passing over Gulf waters with very high heat content on Wednesday. Conditions for intensification will be very favorable until four to six hours before landfall, when strong upper-level winds from the trough of low-pressure steering Laura will bring a high 20 – 25 knots of wind shear and likely halt the intensification process. Interaction with land may also slow intensification at that time. Data from the Hurricane Hunters late Wednesday morning showed that Laura might be starting to develop concentric eyewalls, a process common in intense hurricanes, which leads to a temporary halt in intensification when the double eyewalls become fully developed. This process could slow down Laura’s intensification by Wednesday night. The top dynamical intensity models – the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS -predicted in their 0Z and 6Z Wednesday runs that Laura would be a category 4 hurricane at landfall, with the 6Z COAMPS forecast calling for a category 5.
Laura a catastrophic storm surge threat
Laura will drive a massive catastrophic storm surge to the coast, with the 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday NHC advisory calling for a peak surge of 15 – 20 feet along the western Louisiana coast. The magnitude of this storm surge will depend not only on how strong the winds are, the speed the storm is traveling, and the angle at which it approaches the coast, but also on the size of the storm. A large storm with winds blowing over a wide area of ocean will typically generate a higher storm surge that covers a larger area than a smaller hurricane.
The 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday NHC forecast called for Laura’s tropical storm-force winds to span a diameter of 220 nautical miles (nm) at landfall. For comparison, Hurricane Rita in 2005 – a low-end category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds which drove a 10 – 15-foot storm surge to the southwest Louisiana coast – had tropical storm-force winds that spanned a diameter of 300 nm. Hurricane Ike in 2008 – a high-end category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds that drove a storm surge of 15 – 20 feet to Texas’ Bolivar Peninsula – had a tropical storm-force wind field 390 nm across. (Thanks to weather.com’s Jon Erdman for this information) Given that Laura likely will be a much stronger storm than Rita at landfall, but smaller in areal size, a peak storm surge of 15 – 20 feet – larger than the 10 – 15-foot storm surge Rita brought to southwest Louisiana (see below) – is a reasonable forecast.
Inundation levels also will depend on whether Laura strikes at high or low tide. Tidal ranges are low in this part of the Gulf, however. The tidal range at Lake Charles, Louisiana is 1.5 feet, and high tide is at 6:09 a.m. CDT Thursday.
An impact greater than Hurricane Rita’s in 2005 likely
After peaking as a category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 895 mb – the fourth lowest pressure ever measured for an Atlantic hurricane – Hurricane Rita weakened to a category 3 storm with 115 mph winds before making landfall in western Cameron Parish, Louisiana, near the Texas border, on September 24, 2005. Rita caused an estimated $25.2 billion in damage, making it the eleventh-costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Seven direct deaths were blamed on the storm, and the chaotic evacuation of Houston was blamed for 107 deaths.
When a hurricane threatens, don’t underestimate storm surge risk
The small town of Cameron (population 2,000 and elevation three feet) was the largest town along the stretch of southwest Louisiana coast that received Rita’s peak storm surge, estimated to be 10 – 15 feet. The storm surge destroyed 90% of the homes in Cameron, and destroyed all of the structures in Holly Beach (population 300), with the only human-made features remaining after the storm being power poles, concrete slabs, and roads. Rita’s surge penetrated more than 30 miles inland, reaching Interstate 10. The surge, combined with freshwater flooding, inundated downtown Lake Charles, located 30 miles from the ocean, up to six feet deep. Rita also produced a storm surge of 4 – 7 feet in coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana, flooding some spots that had already been impacted by the surge from Hurricane Katrina about one month earlier.
Posted August 26, 2020, at 12:35 p.m. EDT.
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Apparently the projected surge may be enough to put the hurricane protection levee there to the test according to NWS and the local mayor. Specifically, wave heights may be enough to overtop.
Where can I find a site with live webcams from Lake Charles and other spots along the coast?
Kplc tv https://www.kplctv.com/weather/cams/
If you are in Lake Charles you will be under five hours of 100mph winds with the potential for sustained 125 with gusts much higher. Your home you think can take that, may very well not. If you can, get to a safe shelter out of the path of strongest winds away from the coast asap. 925mb, I’d just add I’ve written mph and mb probably 1500 times on the old blogs and never screwed it up. I cut and pasted my comment from last night forgetting the error. Point is this could rips homes apart JUST LIKE ANDREW DID IN DIRECT CORE PATH. Hope people take the right actions to protect life.
How far would the cat 4 or 5 level winds expand outwards from the center – is that only within the eyewall? Or do they extend say 20 miles if the hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles? I hope Port Arthur makes it out ok – never been their – only know Janis Joplin was from there.
Oh my goodness. Typo error hate earlier as I try to sincerely warn of what is coming? Sheesh. The shunning is a thing so many get from the cool crowd. Most have known me for over a dozen years. Most too scared to be shunned too if they supported me. The shunning is what it is . One thing no one can do is ever question my sincerity. Sorry so many over the years never appreciated it in the least.
Where did you see the recon info?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&product=hdob&storm=Laura&mission=23&agency=AF&ob=08-26-200130-34-943.2-132-118
A lot of petrochemical industries are in the area to be most impacted by this hurricane’s landfall. Also some larger cities like Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Port Arthur. And smaller cities like Port Neches, Orange, and Bridge City. I hope that nobody has to ride this storm out because they lack the resources to evacuate.
47% of refining cap, , and 17% of of production.
are we really gonna fire upon the Wahoo
looks that way
Is there any chance that this jogs west and puts the eastern eye wall on the Sabine River.
test
Looks like recon found 135 knots (155mph) in the NE quadrant of the eyeball.
943.2 now
23 millibars in 5 hours. 5 millibars an hour with some wind shear and land interaction. It would be tough to make Cat 5.
There is a non zero chance, but is is unlikely.
They found 155 mph winds in the northeast quadrant. Not to sound like a doomcaster but it’s literally 1 mph short and pressure keeps dropping. It will probably make the jump at this rate. Regardless this will be a devastating system regardless whether it be a category four or five. It’s truly terrifying to see how quickly the system ramped up.
Shear is starting to hit it from the west so unlikely to hit Cat 5. Max winds won’t matter much at this point.
Based on latest gauges and bulletins, sections of Highway 27/82 already has as much as a foot of water over it (maybe more in a few places) from Sabine Pass to areas east of Cameron. Illustrates both how high the water is already running and how low/flat the coast is in this area.
943.2 mb
(~ 27.86 inHg)
cat 5 SOON?
Laura
beauty and the beast!
945.4 mb
(~ 27.92 inHg)
Water level station at Sabine Pass is reporting 2.3 ft. of inundation above ground level.
NHC issuing hourly updates now. Latest max winds – 140 MPH. Latest central pressure – 948. Moving NW at 16 MPH
Something about me typing in a location reference (text only) is preventing a post from appearing. Anyhow… an hour ago, a certain station on the coast was reporting inundation of 3.2 feet of water above ground along with 35 mph sustained winds.
Finally! It posted. Location is eugene island, about 15 miles east of cameron, la.
location is about 15 miles east of Cameron, Louisiana. When type in the name of the station, the post is blocked for some reason. Name of station is Eu##ne Island. As close as it will let me get.
Sry YCC (too many hrs watching Laura RI, too little sleep), that was a response meant for a posts at WU about a place to donate other than the Red Cross, and the Vermillion Sheriff’s dire warning about staying (name, address, S.S.#, and next of kin in ziplock bag in pocket now, so they can identify, if and when they find their bodies, if they decided to stay). We all know the realities, many will be forced to stay due to also very dire monetary considerations. While our congresscritters delayed, and sat on their thumbs….now sadly, many no doubt will die and suffer.
1 hour ago, Eugene Island NOS station reported 3.2 ft of inundation above ground and 35 mph sustained winds.
WOW😱Trouble ahead.
yeah! ready set learn!
ballin!
Please tell me Sloppy Steve Bannon is not involved.
I pray everyone is heeding the dire warnings to get far away from Laura’s Surge and Winds. That was a very serious post by the Sheriff.
Anyone not taking the extreme growth of this major has not been paying attention, but the timing and delays, and garbage from certain so called congressional leaders and the cutoff of extra but extremely needed unemployment dollars and a second round of covid stimulus checks to people in dire need, will cost lives in the hours and weeks ahead. Those Congresscritters should be held directly responsible, along with their idiot cult leader. Trillions propping up the markets for the 1 percenters safely out of harms way though.
Any reason my comments require “moderator approval”?
If I try to post anything more substantial than the above, the comment is “moderated”.
Haven’t seen any of your comments awaiting or needing moderated. What are you trying to post and how?
Just a simple text. Typed in info regarding an update provided via Eugene Island. No images, no cut-and-paste
My first attempt to respond was also moderated. No images, just 3 lines of text.
No one is moderating your comments. They might not be rendoring correctly. Are you trying to upload a picture or share one by right clicking on a pic online and selecting copy image and paste that here. Uploading needs to be 7mb or smaller. Sharing it needs hosted on a https secure site…might could edit in the s. Doesn’t always work. Hot linking has varied results. If you post a pic in a way incompadable with the platform your picture may simply not post or it could end up being 6 pages of text (which I just cleaned up after myself).
Thanks! Was not trying to post an image but will be mindful. Just 3 lines of text. Weird. Apparently, it does not like me talking about Eugene Island for some reason.
Thanks! Was not trying to post an image but will be mindful. Just 3 lines of text. Weird. Apparently, it does not like me talking about E####e Island for some reason. I am leaving the letters out to see if it will let me post.
This was issued around 30 min. ago. Sorry if already posted here:
Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, recently reported about 3.2 feet of inundation above
ground level.
The Eugene Island NOS station also recently measured sustained winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).
wow
Check “street views” on google of the areas impacted by this storm later today
Heartbreaking
Echos of Michael here.
…. Couldn’t say forsure
thx for updates Jeff!
terry
right now
Awaiting for approval
thx for updates Jeff! still having issues posting
nice!
A smaller GIF works…7 frames
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43 – 3:00 AM JST August 27 2020
TYPHOON BAVI (T2008)
=================================================
Yellow Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bavi (965 hPa) located at 36.9N 125.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots.
Storm Force Winds
====================
90 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
60 nm from the center in western quadrant
Gale Force Winds
=================
210 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in western quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5-
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 45.9N 128.0E – Extratropical Low overland northeastern China
How close to landfall is this?
Pressure is down to the 947-948 mb range as per recon, 5-6 mb in just over an hour. And no real sign of a double wind maxima so she could approach Category 5 strength in the next few hours. This would not be a storm to take chances with!
CAT FIVE
yes u called it ! 3 days ago!
It’s a short loop, but not seeing a much in the way of internal mesos roaming inside the eye….and check out those gravity waves.
You can see the mesos on the longer loop.. https://twitter.com/SammyHadiWx/status/1298696551305547778
Yep- there they are.
From recon Laura just dropped from 950mb to 944.7mb. 5.3mb in 1 hr 35mins.
Wow.
Yep:
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298693663359471617
2020AUG26 183000 6.4 933.5 124.6 6.4 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.34 -66.87 EYE 23 IR 78.4 27.42 92.47 COMBO GOES16 37.4
getting close to what RSMC Miami ADT estimated pressure
Hello, just trying to figure out how this works.
How do you create a username?
Yikes. Was hoping that dry air entrainment might help at least continue to delay the formation of core around the center of circulation for a longer period (as it did most of the day yesterday). This is bad. Really bad. The size and right side bias of the convection/wind field is going to ensure a massive amount of water will be headed toward the shore with little where else to go except inland.
You can see drone footage from yesterday (8/25) of Holly Beach here:
https://youtu.be/H-S8BIsx-iE
It will be, um, interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow…
Glad they are gathering day-before imagery. Very helpful in studying damage patterns which in turn helps inform better coastal management practices and building codes.
reposting still from video
Will be interesting to see if the houses on stilts are high enough. Sometimes a few will make it through.
I think that’s all going to be gone.
You build your house on sticks, you take your chances.
So?
Explosive intensification, anyone?
“As ugly as it gets ” was hyping it?
Maria
Dorian
and others , now, every year.
120 knots wind..and intensifying till landfall.
Some people live in hurricane regions (my case) and believe in science, knowledge and the NHC
And wait another 2 decades.
Did you notice the SSTs in the arctic +6C over average? wait till this comes to the GOM
Time of consequences is upon us.
We have been warned.
See article from March 2020
“Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons” (Gulf was avg 3 degrees above normal then)
https://www.inquirer.com/wires/wp/weather-hurricanes-tornados-20200331.html#:~:text=The%20Gulf%20of%20Mexico%20sea,even%20higher%20in%20recent%20months.&text=Now%2C%20they're%20about%20three,in%20the%20months%20to%20come.
All your fore-warnings have been vindicated.
I really hope those in evacuation zones left, I think the window for escape is closing, good luck to all about to be impacted.
This looks to be catastrophic, I was shocked to see how fast it strengthened!!!
Music videos may be nice during quiet times, but we try to stay away from extraneous content postings when lives are at threat whenever Hurricanes and other storms post a huge imminent threat to life within the next 48 hours. Thanks.
Be glad you are not on the I-10 between Baton Rouge and Houston.
Thanks Dr. Masters, i only can hope people did prepare well or atleast left the area.
NOAA’s servers are crying for mercy.
Test