Satellite image of Genevieve
Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Genevieve at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2020. At the time, Genevieve was a category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

 

Post update on 8/19:

Hurricane Genevieve was on the decline Wednesday after peaking as a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds on Tuesday. At 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2020, Genevieve was a category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, headed north-northwest at 9 mph. Genevieve’s decline may have been the result of the storm’s crossing over cool waters left by the passage of Hurricane Elida over the same region a week earlier.

Genevieve is expected to pass about 50 miles to the west of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Since hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles from the center, a Hurricane Warning is up for the southern tip of Baja, in case Genevieve performs a slight jog to the east. The hurricane is expected to bring dangerous surf, 3 – 6 inches of rain, and tropical storm-force winds to the southern tip of Baja. By Thursday, Genevieve will encounter significantly cooler waters, which should result in rapid weakening, and it is expected to dissipate by Sunday.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Genevieve Wednesday afternoon.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of 97L at 9:40 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical wave 97L in the central Caribbean

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean, designated 97L by NHC, was headed west at 15 – 20 mph – a speed fast enough to impart a shearing action on the disturbance, impeding development. The system was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, which was also interfering with development. Otherwise, conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29 degrees Celsius (84°F) and light to moderate wind shear of 5 – 15 knots. Satellite images showed that 97L had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had shown little change in organization since Tuesday.

Forecast for 97L

As 97L progresses west to west-northwestward over the next few days, its forward speed will slow, which should allow increased chances of development. By Friday, when 97L is expected to slow its forward speed to 10 – 15 mph and be in the northwest Caribbean, very favorable conditions for development may exist. The 12Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere surrounding the system would moisten to a relative humidity of 75%, wind shear would be a light 5 – 10 knots, and SSTs would be a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F). The waters of the western Caribbean have the highest heat content of any place in the Atlantic, providing ample fuel for any tropical cyclone that may spin up there.

Despite these seemingly favorable conditions, the 0Z Wednesday runs of the three best models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the European, GFS, and UKMET models – showed little or no development of 97L through Sunday. The system is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and it is expected to be a threat to the Gulf Coast of Mexico or of the U.S. early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 40% and 80%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 97L Thursday afternoon, if needed.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of 98L at 9:40 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical wave 98L in the central tropical Atlantic

A large tropical wave in the central Atlantic, designated 98L by NHC, was located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, and was steadily growing more organized.

The wave will be moving west-northwest at 15 – 20 mph this week. Conditions for development of 98L were favorable, with SSTs near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of 5 – 10 knots. The system was embedded in a moist region of the atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 70%. Satellite images showed that 98L had an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had consolidated around the western side of the complex area of disturbed weather earlier in the week. The system had plenty of rotation at mid-levels of the atmosphere, but no sign of a well-developed surface circulation.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Predicted path of 98L from the 6Z Wednesday, August 19, 2020, run of the operational GFS model (black line) and its 21 ensemble members (colored lines, which show the minimum central pressure). Most of the ensemble members show 98L developing, and predict it will become a hurricane. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

A threat to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and beyond

Now that 98L has consolidated somewhat, the system should be able to organize more rapidly. In addition, its consolidation has made the future track clearer, with the west-northwest motion of 98L likely taking the system into or very close to the Leeward Islands Friday evening through Saturday.

In an 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 90%. The 0Z Wednesday runs of the three best models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the European, GFS, and UKMET models – all showed little or no development of 98L into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week, which is a bit mystifying, given the healthy appearance of the system and favorable conditions for development. If 98L does end up developing as NHC expects, the system will be capable of intensifying quickly. The 6Z Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that 98L would develop into a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon, move through the northern Leeward Islands early Saturday morning as a category 1 hurricane, and affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a category 2 hurricane on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Residents of the Leeward Islands should expect heavy rains from 98L beginning Friday night, with impacts spreading to the islands farther west Saturday and Sunday. A threat to the U.S. next week is certainly a strong possibility, as long-range model runs are showing that the Bermuda High, which is steering 98L, will be strong and will extend far to the west. The system may have to contend with high wind shear from a trough of low pressure over the U.S. next week, however, and that might interfere with intensification. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L Thursday evening.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Laura and Marco. The earliest twelfth storm in Atlantic tropical history was Luis on August 29, 1995. There is a tie for earliest thirteenth storms, with Lee on September 2, 2011, and Maria on September 2, 2005.

Next up: a new tropical wave over Africa

A strong tropical wave located over extreme western Africa on Wednesday morning has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The new wave is predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, then move west to west-northwest at 15 – 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, passing to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands around Wednesday, August 26. In an 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the new African tropical wave two-day and five-day odds of formation of 0% and 20%, respectively.

Original Post on 8/18

Genevieve satellite image
Infrared GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Genevieve at 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, August 18, 2020. At the time, Genevieve was a category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Hurricane Genevieve put on an impressive show of rapid intensification Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, exploding into a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds by 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, August 18, 2020. Genevieve is tied with the northeast Pacific’s Hurricane Douglas as the most intense tropical cyclone observed in the Western Hemisphere so far this year.

Genevieve had near-ideal conditions overnight for rapid deepening, with light wind shear less than 5 knots, a very moist atmosphere, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 29 – 30 degrees Celsius (84 – 86°F). These favorable conditions will persist through Wednesday morning, when, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has predicted, Genevieve will peak with 150 mph winds. Genevieve could grow stronger than that, becoming a category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, though an eyewall replacement cycle could interrupt its intensification process before that can occur.

Genevieve will track northwestward this week, passing on Wednesday evening close to the southern tip of Baja California, where a Tropical Storm Warning was posted. Genevieve is expected to bring dangerous surf, 1 – 4 inches of rain, and tropical storm-force winds to the southern tip of Baja, but it will pass far enough offshore to spare the region of hurricane-force winds. By Thursday, Genevieve will encounter significantly cooler waters, which should result in rapid weakening, with it expected to dissipate by Sunday.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of 97L at 10:10 a.m. EDT Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The disturbance was beginning to show signs of organization, with a curved low-level cloud band forming along the northeast side. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical wave 97L in the eastern Caribbean

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, designated 97L by NHC, brought heavy rain showers and wind gusts near tropical storm-force to the southern two-thirds of the Lesser Antilles island chain on Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, 97L was headed west at about 20 mph – a speed fast enough to impart a shearing action on the disturbance, impeding development. Otherwise, conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84°F) and moderate wind shear of 10 – 15 knots. The system was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%. Satellite images showed that 97L had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was beginning to show signs of organization, though dry air was significantly impeding the process.

Forecast for 97L

As 97L progresses west to west-northwestward over the next few days, it will slow its forward speed, which should allow increased chances of development. By Friday, when 97L is expected to slow its forward speed to 15 mph and be in the western Caribbean, very favorable conditions for development may exist. The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere surrounding the system would moisten to a relative humidity of 75%, wind shear would be a light 5 – 10 knots, and SSTs would be a very warm 29.5 degrees Celsius (85°F). The waters of the western Caribbean have the highest heat content of any place in the Atlantic, providing ample fuel for any tropical cyclone that may spin up there.

The 0Z Tuesday runs of the three best models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the European, GFS, and UKMET models – had one model, the GFS, predict development on Friday, when 97L is expected to be in the western Caribbean, approaching Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. In an 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 20% and 50%, respectively. No hurricane hunter missions into 97L were scheduled.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of 98L at 10:10 a.m. EDT Tuesday, August 18, 2020. A possible surface circulation center was attempting to form in the eastern large area of heavy thunderstorms. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical wave 98L in the central tropical Atlantic

A large and complex tropical wave in the central Atlantic, designated 98L by NHC, was located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday.

The wave will be moving west to west-northwest at 15 – 20 mph this week. Conditions for development of 98L were favorable, with sea surface temperatures near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and moderate wind shear of 10 – 15 knots. The system was embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a moist region of the atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 75%. Satellite images showed that 98L had an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system was complex, with multiple regions of spin and heavy thunderstorms along an axis nearly 1,000 miles long. The multiple clumps of thunderstorms were competing with each other, slowing development.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Predicted path of 98L from the 6Z Tuesday, August 18, 2020, run of the operational GFS model (black line) and its 21 ensemble members (colored lines, which show the minimum central pressure). Some ensemble members show 98L never developing, but others predict it will become a hurricane. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Forecast for 98L

The future track of 98L will depend heavily on when and where a well-defined center of circulation develops. That prospect is very uncertain, given the complex nature of the wave on Tuesday. A general west to west-northwest motion can be expected over the next several days, with a stronger system that consolidates earlier more likely to track farther to the north. The 0Z Tuesday runs of the three best models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the European, GFS, and UKMET models – all supported intensification of 98L into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday, when it nears the Leeward Islands. In an 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 70% and 90%, respectively. Residents of the Leeward Islands should expect heavy rains from 98L on Friday and Saturday, with impacts potentially spreading to the islands farther west Saturday and Sunday.

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Laura and Marco. The earliest twelfth storm in Atlantic tropical history was Luis on August 29, 1995. There is a tie for earliest thirteenth storms, with Lee on September 2, 2011, and Maria on September 2, 2005.

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Topics: Weather Extremes
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HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
7 months ago

refresh to see

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
7 months ago

refresh

Last edited 7 months ago by HadesGodWyvern
Plombo#5
Plombo#5
7 months ago

I had been switching between here and cat6 all day. Now I get nothing. Tropicaltidbits also seems to be having some issues. For me at least.

Chevelle
Chevelle
7 months ago

Did the other site crash?

Sadre
Sadre
7 months ago

Is this up yet? I miss the WU crew. I very seldom posted, you people are basically teaching me meteorology, so I’m just happy to have a seat in the room 😉

tamper
tamper
7 months ago

i think the other site is gone now

Chevelle
Chevelle
7 months ago
Reply to  tamper

I think so too

DBW
DBW
7 months ago
Reply to  tamper

No it’s not. Go in back door. Sorry but newest when you get there.
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/newest/

Jody Tishmack
7 months ago

This happened when I tried to post an image. I hit edit and deleted the text and then my comment is stuck in “waiting for approval”. Something strange going on.

Stephanie Tihanyi
Stephanie Tihanyi
7 months ago

What the heck is this long script, I am seeing ?

MudderTracker
MudderTracker
7 months ago

Can you take this down? It’s not showing anything by a full page of code.

MudderTracker
MudderTracker
7 months ago

Just making sure we are up and running here in case WU crashes…lol

Amature Met
7 months ago

Googled it but no definitive answer.

How low does a metorite have to be to be seen with the naked eye at 3 pm on a bright day? Saw one three days ago but nothing on the news anywhere about impact. Can they be so low you see them in daylight and still burn up or mostly up?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago
Reply to  Amature Met

They address that question here Amature Met: https://www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs/faqf/

Amature Met
7 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thank you, I will read alot of it, great info as I am now very interested in them!

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
7 months ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Not sure about the answer, but I have a hunch it depends on the size of the meteor(oid). The Sutter’s Mill meteorite was estimated to be between 6 and 13 feet long when it entered our atmosphere.

https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/10-surprising-things-to-see-in-the-daytime-sky

tamper
tamper
7 months ago

somebody at my work already says its going east , like last time

Jody Tishmack
7 months ago

A 1992 paper about the association between Western Sahelian Monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/5/5/435/36005/The-Strong-Association-between-Western-Sahelian
…and we are seeing a wet year in the Western Sahel. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/africa/africa_hazard.pdf

Last edited 7 months ago by Jody Tishmack
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

It only takes one storm to change perspective. It is easy to get complacent, take enough risks in life and eventually the odds catch up. It’s one thing to not prepare and be lucky, it is quite another to be stuck in a disaster zone for weeks without power. If you prepare and take precautions, and they only keep you and your loved ones safe that one time you needed them, well you’ll be glad you took those precautions. To not, and find yourself stuck in the path of an, “it only takes one” storm, is something most will regret for the rest of their lives. If it doesn’t cost them their lives. The NHC has been amazing and at the top of their game for a long time. People may mock them, but anyone who knows anything about forecasting the tropics, knows how good they have done over the years. The NHC should be everyone’s go to source for warnings.

Last edited 7 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
anon
anon
7 months ago

Looks like it may want to pull a Rita track for FL w/ a strong high pressure that pushes it south of FL through the straights. On the model pictures, doesn’t look like a very large storm, but I guess we will know when they post the wind fields.

Skyepony
7 months ago

Wrote a blog on the tropics.. TD 13 was just declared. Cone is on Florida, Bahamas, much of Cuba and parts of Hispaniola. http://skyeponyweather.weebly.com/skyepony-weather/97l-13l-tropics-08202020

terry
terry
7 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony

Great thanks for the updates!

mitthbevnuruodo
mitthbevnuruodo
7 months ago

I wish no disaster, but would have been highly interesting if Genevieve would make a swift turn to the N/E over S. Cal…and help drench any wildfires going on at the time possibly. Also, was SO happy to see an article from Bob on The Guardian here in the UK 😀 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/19/highest-recorded-temperature-ever-death-valley Probably from an article in the US, but so happy The Guardian picked it up too xx

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
7 months ago

Looks like NHC is going to move to TD-13 for 98L at 11 p.m. …

Allowing for watches and warnings? Or are they going with the clear ML spin visible on sat imagery?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

South Florida buckle up, trough timing has the entire east coast of Florida at great risk. Andrew was a small storm. Worst case, millions without power for over a month with 98L hurricane to come likely. High Pressure has it so Florida will be hit in all likelihood. Plenty of time to be ready.

Last edited 7 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

Reality is we should be prepared for numerous cities and states to be under disaster declarations soon. It’s trying times, can we respond to numerous disaster zones at the same time? Delays should be expected this year. They are coming. Plan now with your neighbors and loved ones to not be in the thick of it when it hits.

anon
anon
7 months ago

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/regional/current-glenwood-canyon-closure-the-longest-in-memory/

I-70 in CO through Glenwood Canyon closed for 7 days and counting due to wildfires.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
7 months ago

India Meteorological Department suggests a possible depression could form.

IMD_202019AUG_1730.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

Risk for 97L, is the the trough over the Atlantic suppressing development moves out in time for 97L to tap the jet fuel of the Western Caribbean, before entering the Gulf. Looking unlikely as 97L is racing west. A 97L convection blowup overnight is what I’m hoping we don’t see.

Last edited 7 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

Both invests suffer from mid-level dry air from the Upper Level trough expected to move out as 97L and 98L move in. In the short term this trough should cause formation to be slow for both invests. 97L still very weak at mid levels, with almost nothing at upper levels yet. D-Max tomorrow may be more favorable. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16wvmid/g16wvmid.jpg

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

Gulf will likely take two storms. If not South Florida will likely take a hurricane from 98L and 97L will land from Lousiana to Texas. Either way, recurve through the Bahamas looking to be out of the equation. Conditions make knowing intensity very difficult. Hope people prepare far in advance.

Last edited 7 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
HoleInTheSky
HoleInTheSky
7 months ago

HMON

comment image

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
7 months ago
Reply to  HoleInTheSky

yuck

Amature Met
7 months ago
Reply to  HoleInTheSky

At least its still 5 days out. May not be fantsyland but it is still yuck (as stated below)

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago
Reply to  HoleInTheSky

Wait…WUT?!?! I’d best remind Dorothy, Sophia, Blanche, and Rose to board up the windows!!!

vis0
vis0
7 months ago

CREDIT::NASA/NOAA/SSEC
AOi::Western USofA
SAT TYPE::HRRR near surface smoke
DyT::on ani.
GIF89a::Dimension854x744 ,vWeight453kb , Duration5.98s , Frames002
NOTES::That smoke curving around major cities could it create a larger LPP(low pressure packet)
My22cents::We see at times small micro weather systems as fire-nadoes can so much smoke create a large enough LPP to create 4 or 5 fire-nadoes? Is the Fujita scale used in fire-nadoes.

fire smoke detection20200818.gif
mitthbevnuruodo
mitthbevnuruodo
7 months ago
Reply to  vis0

Hi Vis0! Hoping Genevieve makes a swift N/E turn…both for fire suppression and for a tropical depression to ‘hit’ there after so long. I do hope you’re well, I always enjoy your posts, all the best 🙂

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago

Well, Dr. Masters, I guess things might indeed turn out to be hyperactive. Are all signs still “pointing to blastoff”? I know that Western Caribbean is like probably hotter than my bathtub! But thank you for your insight; I’m truly glad you’ve been able to successfully move over from Weather Underground. It would be a difficult season without you, Levi Cowan, and my friend Philippe Papin, giving us insights. I always learn more about tropical meteorology and atmospheric processes from y’all, and this weather weenie is very pleased! Keep up the good work, Dr. M, and stay safe!

Key Largo
Key Largo
7 months ago

Test

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
7 months ago
Reply to  Key Largo

You are live ….

Tomás
Tomás
7 months ago

Reduced Commercial Air traffic affecting forecast? Why would that be? Forecasts depend upon SST’s, SAL’s, Upper level airflows and more to say nothing of satellite observation and measurements. Sats now have the ability to measure mean sea surface levels to identify hot and cold pools of ocean water with the hot *higher” levels in an area indicating greater probability of rapid strengthening. “United 2371 heavy reporting an area of intense convection at XXN X XXW”. Many thanks for data satellite arrays reported in greater detail, hours ago. Someone educate me if I’m wrong as I await 98L at 17NX64W.

AgentGoat
AgentGoat
7 months ago
Reply to  Tomás

United 2371 may report intense convection verbally but their report is going to include data like air pressure/temperature at their altitude and GPS coordinates. The more inputs the merrier for the models.

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
7 months ago
Reply to  Tomás

All that data gives info about the general atmospheric conditions, so NOAA doesn’t have to fly missions every day just to find out. That extensive sampling of the atmosphere gives some insight that supplements satellite data.

PR100x35
PR100x35
7 months ago

the L98 route is too close to PR to be comfortable

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago
Reply to  PR100x35

I noticed that myself!! :-O

Chevelle
Chevelle
7 months ago

Deader than a morgue in here still.

ThePass
ThePass
7 months ago
Reply to  Chevelle

Kinda like that lol

terry
terry
7 months ago

good memories! thanks beell! good times!

0ec0f1c1d006cde4ebb0f54ea4525d4112f4f72b1b0e4c73ffd6ca3e95a4d6c0.jpg
Amature Met
7 months ago
Reply to  terry

Perfect!

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago
Reply to  terry

LOL this made my day!!! xD

Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
7 months ago

Thanks Dr Masters

Terry
Terry
7 months ago

interesting times!

get.png
AlexDR
AlexDR
7 months ago

Hi, can anyone verify if, how and to what extent lack of airline traffic across the Atlantic due to Covid is impacting weather data gathering and thereby forecasting? I think I heard it on one of Mike’s Spaghetti Models videos last week.
Currently writing a story about Covid impact on usual hurricane season issues, so would appreciate any input from you guys.
(Jeff and Bob, I know you’re busy! Have written to you in this regard hoping for expert quote on this and general theme of piece for Guardian UK).
Many thanks!

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago
Reply to  AlexDR

I know there was a story a couple months back about that very thing, I know they were talking about how there were now “holes” in weather data from the lack of air traffic. Afraid that’s about all I know, they really just generalized the situation. Hope you find some good information, though!! Cheers!

terry
terry
7 months ago

damn!

20202321540_GOES16-ABI-na-02-900x540.jpg
Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
7 months ago
Reply to  terry

Oooooo preeetttyyy……

Terry
Terry
7 months ago

Great updates Jeff ! Thanks again for the insight!

triple threat in terms of storms ? wait n see!

tamper
tamper
7 months ago

you can tell the weather has changed in tampa. we werent getting any rain but the past week or two its moistened up and raining and clouds most of the day

anon
anon
7 months ago

On the other site – some people have said that the models are not accurate because of coronavirus – that commercial planes are used to put data into the models? Is this true in both respects? Are the models less accurate this year and if so which ones? Is it because of less plane traffic? And if so, then why would some people be citing some models as accurate and others as less reliable because of lack of input… to the amateur/skeptic – seems like some people are making up a plausible excuse to discount some models in the interest of wish casting…but maybe some models are less accurate because of reasons stated, but nobody has cited any proof.

Nrtiwlnvragn
Nrtiwlnvragn
7 months ago
Reply to  Jonah

If you look at the study almost all of the errors are at the polar regions, not the tropics

HoleInTheSky
HoleInTheSky
7 months ago

HWRF

comment image

Terry
Terry
7 months ago
Reply to  HoleInTheSky

boom! headshot!

Amature Met
7 months ago
Reply to  HoleInTheSky

NO, No thank you, you can keep this run. Just what NO does not need.

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
7 months ago

It would seem the battle between east and west portions of 98 are over. Time to consolidate and gather strength. Perhaps now a little more certainty from the models can be expected. However I’m still going old school on this one and relying on human abilities over the computers.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago
Reply to  Plombo#5

Levi thinks it’s going to be a slow go for 98L, as he’s almost always correct, 97L may become the more immediate concern. Interesting to see if 98L remains weak and trials behind 97L affecting similar locations. Models play catch up we know, espcecially to intensity.

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
7 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Agreed in regards to Levi. I’ve followed his progression for a long time now and have come to respect his forecasts very highly. I also have concerns for the sneaky 97. Everything is very much up in the air at the moment. No pun intended.

Amature Met
7 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I watched his video this morning. DR. Levi is usally correct. I have watched his videos since he was 15 in Alaska.

With that said 98L looks to be getting it’s act togther rather quickly on visible to the slightly trained eye.

vis0
vis0
7 months ago

not logged

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
7 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17 – 21:00 PM JST August 19 2020
TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (T2007)
———————————-
over land southern China

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Higos (1002 hPa) located at 23.4N 110.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
======================
60 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 26.5N 106.9E – Tropical Depression over land southern China

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

Harvey and 97L today in similar places. The E. Caribbean is not a place tropical trying storms thrive. Harvey was sheared to pieces here before it’s rebirth in the W. Gulf. Credits for Harvey picture: From Cat.6, picture credited last. Figure 1. Radar image showing the disorganized rain showers of Tropical Storm Harvey at 11:10 am EDT August 19, 2017. Lightning strikes are shown as black squiggles. Image credit: Meteorological Department of Curacao. 97L quite a ways to go at mid and upper levels yet. This is not to say 97L will be a Harvey like storm. Just a reminder that Harvey did the unexpected like so many have in recent years. I hope no one is caught off guard this year when it happens again.comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
7 months ago

MJO needs to go. Moisture bridge building between 97L and 98L, unfortunately both are starting to feel the favorable conditions today looking like. If 97L forms faster than expected, intensity could be far greater than expected now. Hopefully not.comment image

Last edited 7 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Amature Met
7 months ago

Test, get ready, here they come.

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