Hurricane Laura hit western Louisiana with a devastating blow at 2 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 27, 2020, making landfall as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds with sustained winds. In terms of winds, Laura tied with the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 as the strongest land-falling hurricane in Louisiana history, and tied as the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall. (Note that the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale does not account for storm surge, only peak sustained wind.)
Laura rapidly intensified by a remarkable 65 mph in just 24 hours on August 26. That ties Hurricane Karl of 2010 for fastest intensification rate in the Gulf of Mexico on record. In the 24 hours prior to landfall, Laura’s winds increased by 45 mph, and the hurricane made landfall with a pressure of 938 mb, ranking as the fourth-strongest hurricane to hit Louisiana by that metric.
A new satellite-based wind measurement instrument, a Synthetic Aperture Radar carried by the Sentinel-1A satellite, measured surface winds of 198 mph in Laura’s northeast eyewall at 8:10 p.m. EDT Wednesday. This wind may not have been representative of Laura’s sustained winds, however.
The highest winds reported at an airport were at Lake Charles, Louisiana: sustained winds of 98 mph and a gust to 132 mph. A University of Florida observing tower reported sustained winds of 95 mph and a gust to 132 mph. A Weatherflow site in Cameron, Louisiana, reported sustained wind of 92 mph and a gust to 117 mph in the southern eyewall of Laura after the eye passed overhead. Lake Charles measured a pressure of 959.4 mb in the eye of Laura, the city’s lowest pressure on record (previous record: 971 mb during Hurricane Audrey on June 27, 1957, according to Chris Burt). Storm chasers Josh Morgerman, Reed Timmer, Mark Sudduth, and Jeff Piotrowski all captured dramatic footage of Laura’s impact.
A fire erupted on Thursday morning at a chemical plant near Interstate 10 in Lake Charles. In addition, many windows were smashed at one of the city’s largest buildings, the 22-story Capital One Tower, and other wind damage was widespread across the city. The NEXRAD radar unit at the National Weather Service office at the Lake Charles airport was destroyed by Laura’s winds (see image).
The Laura storm surge tracking page from the Trabus Technologies Storm Surge Live Tracker indicated that Calcasieu Pass in Cameron, Louisiana, which was in the eye, measured the highest storm surge from Laura: 8.9 feet, at 2 a.m. EDT Thursday. A higher storm surge may have occurred at the tide gauge at Freshwater Canal Locks, on the south-central coast of Louisiana, but the instrument had stopped transmitting data before the peak surge arrived.
The Calcasieu River at Saltwater Barrier (near downtown Lake Charles) produced only minor flooding as it crested at 4.86 feet, well below the predicted record crest of 15-plus feet. Since Laura’s center passed directly over Cameron and very close to Lake Charles, it appears the wind trajectory was not optimal for pushing large amounts of surge upriver toward the city. The surge could have been much higher at both locations had Laura made landfall just slightly further west, closer to the Texas/Louisiana border.
A hyperactive start to the Atlantic hurricane season
With two weeks to go until the typical mid-point of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center has 13 named storms, four hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. As seen in this tweet from Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, this pace puts the 2020 season above-average in nearly all respects:
Laura is record-earliest seventh named storm of a season to hit U.S.
Laura is the seventh named storm to make landfall in the U.S. so far in 2020, setting a record for the earliest a seventh storm has made a U.S. landfall. Only two other hurricane seasons have had six U.S. landfalls by the end of August – 1886 and 1916. Here are the other Atlantic named storms in 2020 to hit the U.S., along with their preliminary damage estimates from insurance broker Aon and other sources:
- Tropical Storm Marco in southeast Louisiana on August 24 (40 mph winds, no significant damage);
- Hurricane Isaias near Wilmington, North Carolina, on August 3 (85 mph winds, over $4 billion in damage to the U.S.);
- Hurricane Hanna in South Texas on July 25 (90 mph winds, $500 million in damage to the U.S. and Mexico);
- Tropical Storm Fay in New Jersey on July 10 (50 mph winds, six deaths, $350 million in damage);
- Tropical Storm Cristobal in Louisiana on June 7 (50 mph winds, one death, $325 million in damage); and
- Tropical Storm Bertha in South Carolina on May 27 (50 mph winds, $200 million in damage).
The record for most U.S. landfalls in one year is nine, set in 1916; second place is jointly held by 2005, 2004, and 1985, each with eight. With hurricane season not yet half over, the 2020 season already ranks in fifth place for most U.S. named storm landfalls in one year. During the period 1851 – 2019, the U.S. averaged 3.2 named storm landfalls per year, 1.6 hurricane landfalls, and 0.5 major hurricane landfalls.
New tropical wave emerges from the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday night was headed west over the tropical Atlantic at about 20 mph. The system was at the edge of a large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer, and dry air will interfere with development through the weekend, as will moderate to high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots.
Satellite images showed that the wave had a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. When the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday, it may find more moisture and lower wind shear, increasing odds of development.
None of the reliable tropical cyclone genesis models predicted that this wave would develop in the coming week. In a Thursday 8 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave two-day and five-day odds of formation of 0% and 20%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Nana.
Typhoon Bavi hits North Korea
Tropical Storm Bavi made landfall in northern North Korea around 2 UTC Thursday, August 27 as a category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, as rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The storm brought widespread impacts to the Korean Peninsula.
According to NOAA’s historical hurricanes database, North Korea has been hit by only one other typhoon in recorded history – Category 1 Typhoon Lingling in 2019. Bavi was able to travel unusually far to the north as a typhoon as a result of record – warm ocean temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) – more than two degrees Celsius (3.6°F) above average. The warm waters were largely the result of an intense heat wave that brought all-time record heat to northeast Asia in recent weeks. During the heatwave, Hamamatsu, Japan, on August 17 tied the record set in 2018 for hottest temperature ever measured in Japan – 41.1 degrees Celsius (106°F).
The 0Z Thursday runs of the top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the European, UKMET, and GFS – all forecast that an area of disturbed weather in the waters south of Okinawa, designated 94W, will develop into Tropical Storm Maysak this weekend, and follow a path similar to Bavi’s, and thereby threaten the Korean Peninsula next week.
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Posted August 27, 2020, at 1:36 p.m. EDT.
So having seen nothing more than an aerial video of Cameron, I can honestly say my first reaction is I am impressed by the number of structures that appear to have withstood the full brunt of Laura. It certainly appears some buildings were lost, but many, many appear to have suffered from non-critical damage (shingles, missing metal roof panels, siding, etc.). Even many what appear to be metal panel buildings appear to have suffered relatively minor damage. That’s not to say they are all livable. Until we know more, many structures likely suffered from water damage via roof, surge or both. However, considering most of what is there today was built after stricter building codes went into effect, I would say that the video is encouraging regarding the effectiveness of said codes.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 9:00 AM JST August 28 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Sea East of the Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 17.4N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 16.8N 130.4E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/chart-1598575267.2331.png tropical depression east of the Philippines would be named ‘JULIAN’ by PAGASA once they start the tropical cyclone bulletins.
hello what is the link for the weatherunderground blog
Cameron in so now is Holly Beach, Louisiana flyover. I hope any conversation on lack of strength has ended. Looks real bad. As no one is joining in the convo, you all have have a safe evening.
Starting a conversation here is like starting a fire during a downpour in the rainforest.
Even discusbackup is super slow. Overwatch burnout in effect. Western Caribbean convection is dying. If anything happens convection will build over the mid-level vort to the west of today’s convection. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/13/1000×1000.jpg
Mid-level vort shown. Shear closing in and increasing. Will convection fire around mid-level tonight? Maybe. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF
Cameron, Louisiana damage from the air has been shared on the main place still on Discus. I encourage all to watch. I can’t share that format here yet it’s shared on. Shows utter devastation as Cameron became part of the Gulf.
Not an RV park underwater on close examination on video, phew. Slabs, nothing but, where houses use to be too. Slabs may remain from Rita it is being suggested. We’ll know soon enough.
I had issues yesterday posting the names of geographic locations. I ended up simply replacing a random letter in the name with a “#” and it took care of the problem. Not very elegant, but it worked.
I know, i know- on to the next storm. But before we move on to the next fad, has anyone seen any recon from Cameron, Holly Beach, etc. post storm? I would really like to know how the buildings supposedly built to new codes fared.
I’ve been looking. They can’t get to Cameron last I checked. They may have gotten a word they were okay? No word on deaths there, I take it that’s hopefully a good sign. Link to the effort: https://weather.com/news/news/2020-08-27-hurricane-laura-louisiana-texas-damage-impacts-power-outages
Surprised someone has not found a helicopter pilot willing to take them out there yet. Lots of helicopters and pilots in that area because of oil rigs and energy companies. Media would pay big $$$ to be the first to show aerial shots of the coast.
Just did a deep dive, no new info. Likely ongoing now. Last reports were some time ago. Thank you for refocusing on the vast damage yet unseen, and plights not yet known. God speed Louisiana.
We hope for good news but we know they have air assets to get in the expert rescue crews. Likely all about that rescue effort unseen right now. Disturbing, if not expected, to have so little info right now there and from Holly Beach.
My bet would be they are there now and not allowing pictures out yet as search and rescue go on in a devastated Cameron, Louisiana. Could be very sobering coming up.
hmm new invest? carib style?
Mid-Level circulation now very visible to the southwest of convection. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/13/1000×1000.jpg
I was informed I was “posting to fast” from the site. Well when there are three people on a good day chatting, you know……….Come on man! And just so you know, I plus everyone’s comments not a troll, to combat the downers. Despite the fact I’m supported about as much as a redheaded stepchild blacksheep. It builds character, and it can be what it is. Doesn’t stop me from loving y’all just the same. 🙂
Would be pretty awesome to see a satellite loop of the entire storm, from genesis to eventual extratropical transition after all is said and done. I hope everyone in LA and TX stays safe, I think this could’ve been a LOT worse, but, like Michael, it seems that the storm surge wasn’t quite as dire as predicted, but the WIND was the major factor here. Not to say storm surge wasn’t significant, but half of the predicted values so lucked out in that respect. Not sure if the other comments section has been shut off or not, but I’ll continue to post on here as well 🙂
Central Atlantic AOI has a30% chance of development. Conditions are forecast to be conducive over the next 5 days
This could be nana and a low rider too
Should be one pending now.
gonna sign out and see what ya see
Aye with access to comments if they are too OT they will get flagged seems. Yet allows you all to vet comments before someone says something utterly horrible and unacceptable. Helps refocus conversation shall we say.
Shear tendency is -20 knots over the low and mid level vorts and convection blow up in the W. Caribbean. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Basic commenting all come back awaiting for approval now.
I cannot figure out the pattern as far as what triggers “moderator” consideration. The mod never has anything pending either so the comment simply evaporates. Maybe loose correlation with the use of capitalized names, but other than that I was at a loss.
why is everything waiting approval?
I got dashboard up see no problems says nothing pending
everyone being kinda shy or somem
pass pass pass pass
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 3:00 AM JST August 28 2020
Sea East of the Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 16.8N 131.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 16.6N 130.6E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
Latest vort update in for mid-levels over Western Caribbean too. Wow that happened fast. Now a low and mid level present. Mid-level vorticity between the convection blowup and the low level vorticity. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters! Great read, as always!
Seems like we will be sleeping in December…..2020 is here….
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