Hurricane Laura

Hurricane Laura put on a phenomenal show of rapid intensification prior to landfall, increasing in strength by 65 mph in just 24 hours on August 26, 2020. That ties Hurricane Karl of 2010 for fastest intensification rate in the Gulf of Mexico on record. In the 24 hours prior to landfall, Laura’s winds increased by 45 mph, and the mighty hurricane made landfall in western Louisiana as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds – the strongest landfalling hurricane in Louisiana history, and the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall.

Laura’s rapid intensification was a disturbing déjà vu of what had happened just two years earlier.

Analysis

As Hurricane Michael sped northwards on October 9, 2018, towards a catastrophic landfall on Florida’s Panhandle, the mighty hurricane made an exceptionally rapid intensification. Michael’s winds increased by 45 mph in the final 24 hours before landfall, taking it from a low-end category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds to catastrophic category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. And Michael’s performance echoed what had happened in 2017, when Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified by 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds.

Human-caused climate change causing more rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes

Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Laura and Michael and Harvey more common.

According to research published in 2019 in Nature Communications, Atlantic hurricanes showed “highly unusual” upward trends in rapid intensification during the period 1982 – 2009, trends that can be explained only by including human-caused climate change as a contributing cause. The largest change occurred in the strongest 5% of storms: for those, 24-hour intensification rates increased by about 3 – 4 mph per decade between 1982 – 2009.

Led by hurricane scientist Kieran Bhatia of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – and titled “Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates” – the study used the HiFLOR model to simulate intense hurricanes. HiFLOR is widely accepted as the best high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes.

Dangerous scenario – rapidly intensifying hurricane making landfall

Rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Michael and Harvey that strengthen just before landfall are among the most dangerous storms, as they can catch forecasters and populations off guard, risking inadequate evacuation efforts and large casualties. A particular concern is that intensification rate increases are not linear as the intensity of a storm increases – they increase by the square power of the intensity.

Lack of warning and rapid intensification just before landfall were key reasons for the high death toll from the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, the most intense hurricane on record to hit the U.S. That storm intensified by 80 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, and it topped out as a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds and an 892 mb pressure at landfall. At least 408 people were killed, making it the eighth-deadliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Another rapidly intensifying hurricane at landfall, Hurricane Audrey in June 1957, tracked on nearly the same course as Hurricane Laura. Audrey was the seventh deadliest U.S. hurricane, killing at least 416. Its winds increased by 35 mph in the 24 hours before landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Lack of warning and an unexpectedly intense landfall were cited as key reasons for the high death toll.

With today’s satellites, radar, regular hurricane hunter flights, and advanced computer forecast models, the danger that another Audrey or 1935 Labor Day hurricane could take us by surprise is lower.

Video: Jeff Masters on 2019 Hurricanes

But all of that sophisticated technology didn’t help much for 2007’s Hurricane Humberto, which hit Texas as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Humberto had the most rapid increase in intensity, 65 mph, in the 24 hours before landfall of any Atlantic hurricane since 1950. A mere 18 hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 2007 had predicted a landfall intensity of just 45 mph, increasing its forecast estimate to 65 mph six hours later. It’s fortunate that Humberto was not a stronger system, as the lack of adequate warning could have led to serious losses of life.

Historical records show that since 1950, the eight storms have intensified by at least 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall. It is sobering to see three of those storms, below in bold face, occurred in the past four years:

Humberto, 2007 (65 mph increase);
King 1950 (60 mph increase);
Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase);
Danny 1997 (50 mph increase);
Laura 2020 (45 mph increase);
Michael 2018 (45 mph increase);
Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase);
and
Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase).

Extreme rapid intensification rates just before landfall to become more common

In a 2016 study – “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel used a computer model that generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes between 1979 and 2005. Emanuel then compared their intensification rates to a similar set of hurricanes generated in the climate expected at the end of the 21st century.

For the future climate, he assumed a business-as-usual approach to climate change – the path we are currently on. Emanuel found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every 5 – 10 years.

What’s more, 24-hour pre-landfall intensifications of 115 mph or more, essentially nonexistent in the late 20th-century climate, would occur as often as once every 100 years by the year 2100. Emanuel found that major metropolitan areas most at risk for extreme intensification rates just before landfall included Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Miami.

Figure 1
Figure 1. VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at 1619 UTC November 7, 2013. Haiyan at that point was about to make landfall near Tacloban in the Philippines with 190 mph winds, the strongest land-falling tropical cyclone in recorded history. (Image credit: NOAA/CIRA)

Eight-fold increase in ultra-intense hurricanes predicted

The same HiFLOR high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes referenced above produced some rather startling findings detailed in a 2018 paper, Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model.

The scientists who authored that paper forecast a dramatic increase in the global incidence of rapid intensification as a result of global warming, and a 20% increase in the number of major hurricanes globally.

For the Atlantic, the model projected an increase from three major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 20th century, to five major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 21st century.

The HiFLOR model also predicted a highly concerning increase in ultra-intense Category 5 tropical cyclones with winds of at least 190 mph – from an average of about one of these Super Typhoon Haiyan–like storms occurring once every eight years globally in the climate of the late 20th century, to one such megastorm per year between 2081 to 2100 – a factor of eight increase.

Even more concerning was that the results of the study were for a middle-of-the road global warming scenario (called RCP 4.5), which civilization will have to work very hard to achieve. Under the current business-as-usual track, the model would be expected to predict an even higher increase in ultra-intense tropical cyclones.

One technique for computing hurricane damage uses ICAT’s damage estimator to review all contiguous land-falling U.S. hurricanes between 1900 – 2017. That technique computes the amount of damage they would do currently and corrects for changes in wealth and population. It finds that while Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 13% of all U.S. hurricane landfalls during that period, they caused 52% of all the hurricane damage.

Given that assessment, it’s very concerning that the HiFLOR model, the best model for simulating current and future behavior of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, is predicting a large increase in the number of these destructive storms. Even more concerning is the model’s prediction of a global factor of eight increase in catastrophic Category 5 storms with winds of at least 190 mph by the end of the century – and that under a moderate global warming scenario.

All of which leads to the regrettable conclusion that the prospects for quickly intensifying storms as they approach landfall are likely to increase in a warming world.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted August 27, 2020, at 3:56 p.m. EDT.

Topics: Climate Science, Weather Extremes
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GTstormChaserCaleb
GTstormChaserCaleb
4 months ago

Hello and good afternoon everyone. Air Force Reconnaissance is wheels up and enroute to Invest 90L. It’s currently passing over Pensacola. The mission can be tracked on tropicalatlantic http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF305&product_page=hdob or on tropicaltidbits https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

The ridge dominating the Gulf is forecast to lift north by mid week, steering looks pretty straight forward. 500mb steering pictured. hard to see how 99L goes anywhere but across Central America into the Pacific. LLC would have to form way north by the strongest convection for 99L to make the Yucatan, much less the Gulf. None of the latest vorticity maps suggest that is happening. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.GIF

Terry
Terry
4 months ago

storms everywhere , give us a little break!

ss.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

99L under very low shear. To have a massive wall of mid-level dry air to the north and west is the suppresser; but I’m not sure the almost nil shear won’t allow 99L to form quickly and create it’s own environment which may be able to keep the dry air out. 99L finds it’s footing, may spell trouble of becoming the next hurricane of 2020. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Mid-level trough is narrow and draped from Haiti to Panama. This trough is the only area where shear is going up. Looks to be having some negative impacts on 99L’s development for now. 500mb vorticity pictured first showing trough. Shear tendency map highlighting the increased shear to the west of 99L. At the upper levels a big TUTT is seen over the western Caribbean. Could be another negative factor downstream. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Clearly new low level forming north and west of old low level vort for 99L. Mabye stack later today or through the night. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

eric
eric
4 months ago

Can someone give me the weatherunderground blog plz

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  eric
Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
White Rabbit
White Rabbit
4 months ago

What’s going on with the rising, sinking air anomaly? Forgive me for the unscientific wording. If I’m not mistaken that means a depression of cyclone activity in the Atlantic MDR over the next couple of weeks?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

Suppressed phase of the MJO has moved into the Western Hemisphere, specifically the eastern portion. Yet it’s a low frequency suppressed phase which means storms will still keep on rolling. To be in a suppressed phase, with shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean still so low, suggests to me we may not be getting any slowdown.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  White Rabbit

One more large belch of SAL about to push off Africa could suppress activity. Looking at this, it’s clear SAL goes way down after this sandblast. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/msg_rgbdust/msg_rgbdust.jpg

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

99L has an even more favorable shear environment today. Very dry mid-level air in 99L’s path; but considerably less than yesterday. With very low shear, what dry air is there, will likely not entrain quickly when 99L does develop. Watching an invest move in low shear through the eastern Caribbean is a unique sight. Low Level about to crash into Venezuela, mid level should take over and work down. 99L very well may not be Mexico bound if the low level dies.comment image

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
tim
tim
4 months ago

Test … to try and understand why the comment I just made has now vanished. .

LitteringAnd
LitteringAnd
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

So does mine, this site has some bugs for sure.

tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

Nope, it accepted this pointless comment … just not the useful, well constructed one. Funny.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

Keep posting, it will get worked out. Your “well constructed” post rambled off about someone else and had the word troll or trolling in it, which probably triggered the commenting platform.

tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Well, that’s pretty prohibitive of communication then, isn’t it (rhetorical … it is.)
I won’t bother rewriting the comment again, the misleading comment I was responding to … the logical fallacy that was made … will stand un refuted.

I’ll wait till a new system comes before engaging other crucial topics like the Buffet/Gates topic below, because the system is too random at the moment to facilitate discussions requiring any modicum of depth and nuance.

As it stands, it’s just a frustrating barrier to discussion. Good luck with getting set up.

Last edited 4 months ago by tim
tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

And now, several comments from this thread are gone. Mine, and another from another poster, who had added a comment.

Streamlined? Filtering out the flow of the content? Why? Just, tidying?

I look at sociology and psychology a lot while processing climate change and in particular human responses to it. All the comments on a board, are useful to the work I do, socially, regarding climate … and particularly removing social barriers to addressing the climate issue.

It’s such a slow moving board. Why on earth would the two innocuous comments have been removed from this thread, especially if it was just for tidying reasons? Why not, just leave them be.

That, filters all the content through just one person’s thinking process at any given time; one mod. The more that happens, the less hands off you are with that privilege, the more un-real and distorted things will become. That’s because you may not be considering what it is I might be focused on while watching behavior and conversations evolve on a message board.

That’s a social system observation for you. This place has some thinking to do between now and a new system about who it actually wants to be in the climate discussion. Right now, this isn’t serious.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Skyepony, should we expect this to be the going rate of YCC blog, until the new format in November?

tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Thanks for the useful information, Wyatt. Come back in Novemeber was the right answer here, not … keep posting, while I distort and mangle your content for you, and also your context while I’m at it. People have flocked here, and then leave almost immediately. You have lurkers, but no commenters. I will come back in November and see if things have changed. Thanks for the heads up Wyatt.

LitteringAnd
LitteringAnd
4 months ago

Omar and Wilfred sound like troubled names.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31 – 21:00 PM JST August 31 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
140 km southwest of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (950 hPa) located at 25.0N 127.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
100 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
300 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
240 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 28.4N 125.7E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
48 HRS: 32.8N 127.5E – 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 120 km west of Goto (Nagasaki Prefecture)
72 HRS: 43.8N 126.3E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Over land northeastern China

—–

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 21:00 PM JST August 31 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
=================================================
near Ogasawara islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 22.9N 146.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.0N 144.0E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) near Ogasawara islands

NCHurricane2009
4 months ago

Latest updates at my site for all four areas of interest went up at about midnight last night, again practicing doing updates from the cellphone (thus the satellite and chart markups are simpler than they usually are). Resuming normal updates later today with the usually charting.

If in fact 90L offshore of the eastern US coast becomes our next tropical storm, it would join Arthur, Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Kyle in developing in the northwest Atlantic from a decaying frontal zone. This recurring pattern this season seems to be pumping up the numbers of storms we’ve had so far, explaining the record number of Atlantic storms we’ve had this season so far.

Wayne Meulendyk
4 months ago

Active Climate Rescue Initiative: Move the Water! is aimed at reversing Global Warming.
.
Fully implemented, Move the Water! initiative would greatly affect Global Warming and improve the lives of many people around the world.
.
Partly implemented, Move the Water! initiative will slightly affect Global Warming and greatly improve the lives of people local to the individual site.
.
See 2-minute short videos for initiative overview.
https://youtu.be/vRJyCVXApAk
https://youtu.be/bjHxkxRWAs0

Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago

The idear is good, however impossible to practice in this world in the state it is with governements we have that only can think of their own profit and power. For that reason just impossible.

123
123
4 months ago

If the eastern Atlantic tropical waves aren’t moving, does that mean the trades have collapsed and that the oceans will warm up further with a lack of wind?

Matt
Matt
4 months ago

A note for those monitoring the solar energy field in America.
Large Corporations in America, especially any connected to utilities, are trying to kill and hinder solar energy progress big time.
I once worked for Haleakala solar, the most successful solar outfit in Hawaii just 2-25 years ago.
They were bought put by Petersen-Dean – to kill it.
When they bought the company nearly all the electricians quit right off the bat.
Too much cumbersome corporatization. 
Excess paperwork for in the field electricians is BS.
Too many high paid bosses who didn’t know jack about solar too.
The same happened with another company I worked for – REC.
Duke Energy – a major utility in the eastern US bought them out in 2015.
Their business has gone through the floor since.
Corporate America is doing its damndest to kill solar.
Screw the large corporations – shun them.
Go with a local solar operator that still has enough clout to provide and install battery back-up, the best way to ensure you receive the benefits instead of some friggin utility or large corporation. 
You’ll get better prices and a better outcome financially and your company is less likely to go out of business on you if you ever need help/upgrades/battery backup.
You’re more likely to reap the financial benefits as well.

sdotoole
sdotoole
4 months ago
Reply to  Matt

hopefully you are not a bot Matt, anyway, your basic premise is correct.

Warren Buffet makes a lot of talk of how he is stepping up with green energy:

https://archive.thinkprogress.org/buffett-says-he-loves-renewables-so-why-is-his-company-trying-to-kill-solar-energy-77a6941bafc1/

Don’t forget, he is the same guy who own burlington northern, the main US railroad used to transport fracked and shale oil to other countries. I call bs on his aw shucks story.

His giving pledge pal billy bathgates, owns a huge interest in Canadian National Railroad,
so much, that they had to modify the law about foreigners ownership limits, just for billy.

This is how all the alberta tar sands oil, which is the filthiest fossil fuel extraction that exists, gets to market.

CNN routinely has articles quoting bill gates like he is some freaking oracle or something,
good god, he is a just a rich dude, and do you think he got rich by being some kind of great, sympathetic guy, he rode roughshod. Google (<-don’t be evil – haha – so ironic) his history.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

One gathers it’s now casting as the MJO and the Model’s aren’t in a dating mood. Faster and faster I have heard said.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

lets listen too a tune

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

I like that it has lyrics. So very 2020 too. PG13 warnings for the car scene. Foggy.

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Next update NHC may classify both, which gets classified first and why?

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

This is seriously wild. Both could be classified overnight. comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Both invests could be arguably named by morning. What will the NHC do? Each satellite update closer to classification for both.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Race to which invest becomes Nana is on. 2020 can stop anytime now.comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Both invests will be named, both could become hurricanes. Low shear for both. 99L the risk to life down the road. Much more complicated track with 99L as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

sdotoole
sdotoole
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

I suspect u are correct.

Steve Dearborn
Steve Dearborn
4 months ago

What kind of font does this blog use? It’s almost invisible. Please fix.

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
4 months ago
Reply to  Steve Dearborn

Looks OK to me. But this site really needs to use another comment system – even Disqus would be much better. There’s no indication that someone is replying, and no auto-display of new comments. Very disappointing.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  PartyLikeSpock

If you know the whole story, science got decapitated. Pretty much across the board. YCC gave Jeff and Bob, the good Docs, a place they can still broadcast the truth. We should be happy. It’s Yale right? Being so, they’ll get this rolling right soon.

sdotoole
sdotoole
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

yeh give it time this will be the landing spot

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  Steve Dearborn

Helvetica font, is what I see in the site’s properties.

North-Ctrl FL Man
North-Ctrl FL Man
4 months ago
Reply to  Steve Dearborn

I would recommend zooming in, the ctrl key and + together will zoom the webpage to a more legible size. https://lifehacker.com/how-to-zoom-in-and-out-on-a-web-page-5815125

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 9:00 AM JST August 31 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea South of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (955 hPa) located at 22.4N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
80 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
300 nm from the center in southern quadrant
240 nm from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.7N 126.1E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 80 km west northwest of Kume Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 29.9N 126.5E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 37.2N 129.2E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land Korean Peninsula (South Korea)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image

2009-00.png
Last edited 4 months ago by HadesGodWyvern
sdotoole
sdotoole
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

interesting how they do the linear interpolation of the cone compared to the smoothed cone here (nothing wrong with that, a human can figure it out)

Vanessa E Hall
Vanessa E Hall
4 months ago

This is wrong. If we in the United States choose to continue the use of plastics, particularly single-use plastic – then we need to find a way to clean it up our own selves instead of dumping it on any other country. If making a profit off of recycling or getting rid of it is a problem, then maybe the real probl;em is the plastic itself. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/climate/oil-kenya-africa-plastics-trade.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, an industry group representing the world’s largest chemical makers and fossil fuel companies is lobbying to influence United States trade negotiations with Kenya, one of Africa’s biggest economies, to reverse its strict limits on plastics — including a tough plastic-bag ban. It is also pressing for Kenya to continue importing foreign plastic garbage, a practice it has pledged to limit.
Plastics makers are looking well beyond Kenya’s borders. “We anticipate that Kenya could serve in the future as a hub for supplying U.S.-made chemicals and plastics to other markets in Africa through this trade agreement,” Ed Brzytwa, the director of international trade for the American Chemistry Council, wrote in an April 28 letter to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
The United States and Kenya are in the midst of trade negotiations and the Kenyan president, Uhuru Kenyatta, has made clear he is eager to strike a deal. But the behind-the-scenes lobbying by the petroleum companies has spread concern among environmental groups in Kenya and beyond that have been working to reduce both plastic use and waste.

HsdarAbit
HsdarAbit
4 months ago
Reply to  Vanessa E Hall

We (the consumer) did not ever ‘choose’ plastics. They were dreamed up and invented by “scientists” from university trained chemical engineers in the employ of the oil conglomerates.
Food tastes better in glass containers. Is not toxified and glass is 100 percent renewable.
But re whiny pseudo ecologists, you continue to purchase products in plastics, so you are a part of the problem.
Stop looking for laws to force the change you claim to believe in…BE THE CHANGE FIRST or shutty!

sdotoole
sdotoole
4 months ago
Reply to  HsdarAbit

I agree with you, plastic was shoved out to consumers – but now there is virtually nothing you can buy that isn’t wrapped in plastic. You can be an army of one not buying it – good luck.

And sad to say, the BEST result is that this wrap plastic ends up in the landfill. The bags that stuff comes in everywhere, becomes an even bigger problem when we attempt to recycle it, or as people often do, just chuck it as litter. – see how
supposedly “recycled” plastic just gets burned in indonesia to make tofu. We are dealing with professional liars here.

While walking my kid’s mom’s dog today, I was astonished at the sheer amount and variety of plastic crap that is everywhere on the sidewalks and streets here.

Is it any wonder that a good portion of all these little pieces of plastic (at least where I live) and up in the pacific ocean?

We are just too irresponsible, and in so many ways – we 5h1+ where we eat.

tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  sdotoole

And since you can’t buy milk or … anything … in a glass bottle anymore … we’re just supposed to shutty?

I sense the sentiment that is trying to be conveyed here, but am not sure this was the right way to apply the concept. You don’t have a consumer choice to buy liquids in glass bottles anymore, for decades now. It isn’t even there to choose. So, I guess we just got told to shutty.

And plastic toxicity and pollution isn’t a belief, there’s science and evidence there to follow. I can’t tell if this was comment from HsdarAbit was trolling, or trying to be sort of helpful and just kind of missing by a little bit?

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago

SpaceX rocket just launched. Too many clouds for a picture. Clouds did trap and roll the sound better. Really long, loud and booming sounding.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Usually don’t hear the reentry of the booster like that..wow.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

We don’t have the bat signal, but we should have the blob signal. Hurricane Season without Grothar Captaining the ship just does not feel right. First Mate Patrap somewhere posting a we’re gonna need a bigger boat meme.

PartyLikeSpock
PartyLikeSpock
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Have they posted here?

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  PartyLikeSpock

Patrap has, not seen Gro yet, wonder how he’s doin

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  WxColorado

Almost all of us from the old days do.

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  PartyLikeSpock

Not yet that I know of. He is a dear old friend.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Uncle SAL dry mid-level air will meet 99L soon. Shear over core is amazing right now. Should become tropical storm Nana by morning. Conditions will go downhill after that enough to likely keep it steady if not struggling for a few days. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16wvmid/g16wvmid.jpg

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

India broke our single day record for Covid-19 cases yesterday, over 78,000 cases. I live in the Southeast, very very few are taking any steps to stop this spread. A rave? Just another day here. Amazing how few can bring themselves to feel anything for the numbers of dead flashed on a t.v screen.

Skyepony
4 months ago

99L, moving quick and looking gamely..click pic for larger animation.

0830203099L.gif
Last edited 4 months ago by Skyepony (mod)
terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony

wowzers

Oskee
Oskee
4 months ago

Closely monitoring the system. Thursday is election day in Jamaica. Looks like its going to be very wet

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Oskee

u dun kno

Skyepony
4 months ago

This is line with the change from the CMC. This AOI ejected off the coast quicker than expected and maybe a little more so even.

08302020JaxWUNIDS_map.gif
Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago

Clothing industry is already putting up more greenhouse gases than international flights and maritime shipping combined. This whole shift to disposable, thin, cheap fashions is making it worse. The cheap new beats out recycling old clothes into disaster blankets for climate victims even. The clothes recycling loop is flailing. https://getpocket.com/explore/item/no-one-wants-your-used-clothes-anymore?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Last edited 4 months ago by Skyepony (mod)
WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

a big reason why I no longer buy cheap clothing,
I was getting sick of replacing my already worn out, but only 1 month old jeans constantly
similar with underwear
the flood of unreuseable clothing is staggering

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  WxColorado

I had one guy tell me he no longer even does laundry, cheaper to buy new

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  WxColorado

gosh

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Now we are doing tens of thousands of cloth masks every day. These all end up in the trash pretty quickly.

tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

And, just like with the plastic six-pack rings …

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tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

aa.jpg
tim
tim
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

Please, like with the six-pack rings … cut those loops before disposing.

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Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago
Reply to  tim

They need to be disposed in the proper way, like not on the street or just outside the supermarket.

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago

Area near 13N 40W has been showing some spin and increase in convection. If this trend were to continue we could well have 90L the next 24 hrs

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25 – 3:00 AM JST August 31 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea South of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (955 hPa) located at 20.7N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
80 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
300 nm from the center in southern quadrant
240 nm from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 25.9N 126.6E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 120 km west southwest of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 29.0N 126.1E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 34.4N 129.0E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea near Tsushima island (Nagasaki Prefecture)

Skyepony
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

Maysak

0830Maysak.jpg
Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago

red x

two_atl_5d0.png
Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Times two.

Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
4 months ago

ok

bandicam 2020-08-30 12-35-31-399.gif
Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
4 months ago

look at it. its definitely spinning. its starting to fan out too

ezgif-7-bb2f0dae74d0.gif
Tweek
Tweek
4 months ago

Good morning everyone. We have a code orange.comment image

Weather Jamaica
Weather Jamaica
4 months ago

😮

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Angela kop
Angela kop
4 months ago

Where can I find the model runs for 99l

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago

99L looks like another gulf storm

Last edited 4 months ago by Stormfury
Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago

looking mean

himawari8_10W_band09_202008301345.png
Terry
Terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

ballin!

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago

maysak JTWC

wp1020.gif
Terry
Terry
4 months ago

oh no!

sd.png
Terry
Terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Terry

rt4.jpg
terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Terry

yah mon going to be a big one u dun kno

Amature Met
4 months ago

Red X over my house. Beautiful weather here, wont be anything until it leaves the coast.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Here’s the upper level vort map, where you see Nana to possibly be, is trapped between the high pressure and the trough. You see the upper level vorticity reaches to the north of the mid and low level vorticities over Florida. That’s causing the small pocket of shear to the immediate north of the low and mid level vorts. Possibly due to a weakness in upper level vorticity there. If that small pocket of shear remains, could help entrain some continental dry air into this possible system. Shear map showing ball of shear north pictured first. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF

Diablo Flaco
Diablo Flaco
4 months ago

Good Morning all. Is anyone else having problems with Levi’s Tropic Tidbits this morning?

Hopefully I have figured out (with Jan’s help) how to get back into the discussions.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Diablo Flaco

It’s down for me too right now at Levi’s site.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

New Florida/Georgia line invest should develop. Stuck between yet another trough of low pressure to the north, and high pressure to the east and south, a pocket of low shear is there for short term development. Solid mid and low level vorticity as well. Could be a quick spinup into a 45mph topping out tropical storm Nana; and into the Westerlies and away it’ll go.comment image

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Narrow window of low shear shown. Major slugs of SAL won’t be an issue either. Downside is the environment is not very moisture rich. How much will the Gulf Stream help, and will that offset the tongue of dryer continental air that looks to meet this spinup off the coast? As seen on latest water vapor loop for this dry air. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16wvmid/g16wvmid.jpg

Amature Met
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

That red X is over my house. Nice weather here, now when it hits the stream…

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Amature Met

Will almost certainly develop, but will the Gulf Stream offset the dry air, surely coming off the continental still with the passing of the last front. Will be interesting, last few radar updates have shown moisture and storms on the increase across northern Florida. Have a great Sunday Amature Met.

NCHurricane2009
4 months ago

For anyone on here late tonight, got my latest post up on the Atlantic tropics at my infohurricanes site, it’s also a test of doing an update from my cellphone so the satellite & atmospheric charts look different than they usually do.

Of all three areas of interest, I think the one most likely to be named Nana is either the front heading to the west Atlantic or the East Atlantic tropical wave. If the west Atlantic front develops, it would be deja vu as Arthur, Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Kyle developed with a similar setup.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 9:00 AM JST August 30 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (965 hPa) located at 17.2N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.9N 128.1E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 26.4N 125.8E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 100 km west of Kume Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 29.7N 126.2E – 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea