Hurricane Laura

Hurricane Laura put on a phenomenal show of rapid intensification prior to landfall, increasing in strength by 65 mph in just 24 hours on August 26, 2020. That ties Hurricane Karl of 2010 for fastest intensification rate in the Gulf of Mexico on record. In the 24 hours prior to landfall, Laura’s winds increased by 45 mph, and the mighty hurricane made landfall in western Louisiana as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds – the strongest landfalling hurricane in Louisiana history, and the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall.

Laura’s rapid intensification was a disturbing déjà vu of what had happened just two years earlier.

Analysis

As Hurricane Michael sped northwards on October 9, 2018, towards a catastrophic landfall on Florida’s Panhandle, the mighty hurricane made an exceptionally rapid intensification. Michael’s winds increased by 45 mph in the final 24 hours before landfall, taking it from a low-end category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds to catastrophic category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. And Michael’s performance echoed what had happened in 2017, when Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified by 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds.

Human-caused climate change causing more rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes

Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Laura and Michael and Harvey more common.

According to research published in 2019 in Nature Communications, Atlantic hurricanes showed “highly unusual” upward trends in rapid intensification during the period 1982 – 2009, trends that can be explained only by including human-caused climate change as a contributing cause. The largest change occurred in the strongest 5% of storms: for those, 24-hour intensification rates increased by about 3 – 4 mph per decade between 1982 – 2009.

Led by hurricane scientist Kieran Bhatia of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – and titled “Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates” – the study used the HiFLOR model to simulate intense hurricanes. HiFLOR is widely accepted as the best high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes.

Dangerous scenario – rapidly intensifying hurricane making landfall

Rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Michael and Harvey that strengthen just before landfall are among the most dangerous storms, as they can catch forecasters and populations off guard, risking inadequate evacuation efforts and large casualties. A particular concern is that intensification rate increases are not linear as the intensity of a storm increases – they increase by the square power of the intensity.

Lack of warning and rapid intensification just before landfall were key reasons for the high death toll from the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, the most intense hurricane on record to hit the U.S. That storm intensified by 80 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, and it topped out as a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds and an 892 mb pressure at landfall. At least 408 people were killed, making it the eighth-deadliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Another rapidly intensifying hurricane at landfall, Hurricane Audrey in June 1957, tracked on nearly the same course as Hurricane Laura. Audrey was the seventh deadliest U.S. hurricane, killing at least 416. Its winds increased by 35 mph in the 24 hours before landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Lack of warning and an unexpectedly intense landfall were cited as key reasons for the high death toll.

With today’s satellites, radar, regular hurricane hunter flights, and advanced computer forecast models, the danger that another Audrey or 1935 Labor Day hurricane could take us by surprise is lower.

Video: Jeff Masters on 2019 Hurricanes

But all of that sophisticated technology didn’t help much for 2007’s Hurricane Humberto, which hit Texas as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Humberto had the most rapid increase in intensity, 65 mph, in the 24 hours before landfall of any Atlantic hurricane since 1950. A mere 18 hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 2007 had predicted a landfall intensity of just 45 mph, increasing its forecast estimate to 65 mph six hours later. It’s fortunate that Humberto was not a stronger system, as the lack of adequate warning could have led to serious losses of life.

Historical records show that since 1950, the eight storms have intensified by at least 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall. It is sobering to see three of those storms, below in bold face, occurred in the past four years:

Humberto, 2007 (65 mph increase);
King 1950 (60 mph increase);
Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase);
Danny 1997 (50 mph increase);
Laura 2020 (45 mph increase);
Michael 2018 (45 mph increase);
Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase);
and
Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase).

Extreme rapid intensification rates just before landfall to become more common

In a 2016 study – “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel used a computer model that generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes between 1979 and 2005. Emanuel then compared their intensification rates to a similar set of hurricanes generated in the climate expected at the end of the 21st century.

For the future climate, he assumed a business-as-usual approach to climate change – the path we are currently on. Emanuel found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every 5 – 10 years.

What’s more, 24-hour pre-landfall intensifications of 115 mph or more, essentially nonexistent in the late 20th-century climate, would occur as often as once every 100 years by the year 2100. Emanuel found that major metropolitan areas most at risk for extreme intensification rates just before landfall included Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Miami.

Figure 1
Figure 1. VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at 1619 UTC November 7, 2013. Haiyan at that point was about to make landfall near Tacloban in the Philippines with 190 mph winds, the strongest land-falling tropical cyclone in recorded history. (Image credit: NOAA/CIRA)

Eight-fold increase in ultra-intense hurricanes predicted

The same HiFLOR high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes referenced above produced some rather startling findings detailed in a 2018 paper, Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model.

The scientists who authored that paper forecast a dramatic increase in the global incidence of rapid intensification as a result of global warming, and a 20% increase in the number of major hurricanes globally.

For the Atlantic, the model projected an increase from three major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 20th century, to five major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 21st century.

The HiFLOR model also predicted a highly concerning increase in ultra-intense Category 5 tropical cyclones with winds of at least 190 mph – from an average of about one of these Super Typhoon Haiyan–like storms occurring once every eight years globally in the climate of the late 20th century, to one such megastorm per year between 2081 to 2100 – a factor of eight increase.

Even more concerning was that the results of the study were for a middle-of-the road global warming scenario (called RCP 4.5), which civilization will have to work very hard to achieve. Under the current business-as-usual track, the model would be expected to predict an even higher increase in ultra-intense tropical cyclones.

One technique for computing hurricane damage uses ICAT’s damage estimator to review all contiguous land-falling U.S. hurricanes between 1900 – 2017. That technique computes the amount of damage they would do currently and corrects for changes in wealth and population. It finds that while Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 13% of all U.S. hurricane landfalls during that period, they caused 52% of all the hurricane damage.

Given that assessment, it’s very concerning that the HiFLOR model, the best model for simulating current and future behavior of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, is predicting a large increase in the number of these destructive storms. Even more concerning is the model’s prediction of a global factor of eight increase in catastrophic Category 5 storms with winds of at least 190 mph by the end of the century – and that under a moderate global warming scenario.

All of which leads to the regrettable conclusion that the prospects for quickly intensifying storms as they approach landfall are likely to increase in a warming world.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. (See all EOTS posts here. Sign up to receive notices of new postings here.)

Posted August 27, 2020, at 3:56 p.m. EDT.

Topics: Climate Science, Weather Extremes
288 Comments
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Shira
Shira
4 months ago

Hurricane Katrina’s storm surge along the Mississippi Gulf Coast

stormsurge.jpg
Shira
Shira
4 months ago

A video I made 1 year after Hurricane slammed onto the Mississippi Gulf Coast on 08/29/2020. The storm surge was 28 feet in Waveland/Bay St Louis. It was 24 feet in my hometown of Gulfport.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD4oT0AysG0

Stella
Stella
4 months ago
Reply to  Shira

Went to Ships Island in 2010 i remember the guide saying the waters were at 33 feet at their location. Still so hard to believe all the damage that happened.

thank you for posting.

Shira
Shira
4 months ago
Reply to  Stella

She caused another cut in Ship Island as well.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

comment image

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

2 days 6 and a half hrs of summer remain

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

comment image

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Rain at last!
Rain at Last!

WX 👀
WX 👀
4 months ago

Hello
just testing to see if I am able to post.

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
4 months ago
Reply to  WX 👀

Indeed you have posted!

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
4 months ago

Had our very mild encounter with Laura’s remnants today here in NJ. Only wish I could go back in time and give my today’s weather to those in Louisiana and Texas who bore the brunt of this beast instead of the beating they endured. Thoughts and good wishes to those dealing with the aftermath, you’re all on our minds here.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17 – 3:00 AM JST August 30 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (970 hPa) located at 17.1N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.9N 128.4E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 25.4N 126.1E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 120 km southwest of Kume Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 28.7N 125.5E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

Deano
Deano
4 months ago

Even after all this time the remnants of Laura are flaring up over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. Laura was and is a piece of work.

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago

A yellow X is coming at the area 13n 40w in the next TWO.

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago
Reply to  Stormfury

Ascat B showing a low pressure with the TW at 13n 45W

Tom Pitz
Tom Pitz
4 months ago

How can I subscribe? Won’t take last email address

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago
Reply to  Tom Pitz

no subscription required for now just an email addy and user name

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

models show an early start to cool to cold fall weather likely possible by end of first week of sept

Deano
Deano
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

This will kick up home brewed systems. Old frontal boundaries, etc. This, along with deep tropical activity will get the names rolling again. Then, the overall heat pattern will return.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

comment image?w=600&h=468

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

The low rider, that finds a rare window of low shear later in September in the eastern Caribbean, is a huge risk this year. A major hurricane tapping the waters heated at depth over the western Caribbean, then making the Gulf, is absolutely not out of the question unfortuantely. God speed your recovery Louisiana.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Dorian in the Grand Bahamas, Maria in Puerto Rico, Harvey in Texas, Haiyan in the Philippines, Cyclone Nargis in Bangladesh and surrounding countries, Cyclone Winston in Fiji, Typhoon Yutu in Saipan and Tinian. Today is Katrina’s anniversary, and unfortunately events like Katrina are happening with disturbing regularity now. Image credit NOAA/NESDIS Cyclone Winston pictured, Koro island was in the eye at the time. All storms listed happened after Katrina. FEMA’s Disaster Fund expected to get down to the 25 billion mark. Congress will soon have to find a way to get that money back as Isaias and Laura already will be consuming much of that budget. Isaias estimates 4 billion in damages, so far with Hurricane Laura, 12 billion is the early estimate. http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2016/winston-viirs-ir.jpg

Navin Singh
4 months ago

Most of this years big storms have thus far spared Florida due to timing and ridge placement- Isias went east and laura and marco went south and west of Florida. GFS para shows the next wave (one in central atlantic) going south of florida into the BOC and western gulf, and the wave near Africa recurving to the east. Obviously it is way to early to make any certain proclamations, and I don’t want destruction, but we could use some rain from a weak non-destructive system.

Last edited 4 months ago by Navin Singh
LitteringAnd
LitteringAnd
4 months ago

Test

LitteringAnd
LitteringAnd
4 months ago

What are the steering trends for the two invests?

Luis Martinez
Luis Martinez
4 months ago

There is still plenty of Saharan air Layer out there.

splitE (18).jpg
Deano
Deano
4 months ago
Reply to  Luis Martinez

Very common and indicative of much vorticity among other factors.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 21:00 PM JST August 29 2020
TYPHOON MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Maysak (975 hPa) located at 17.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 nm from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.8N 129.0E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 24.6N 127.1E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 190 km southwest of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 27.8N 125.7E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago

Morning everyone….I would assume that YCC will be doing a blog about Hurricane Katrina….15 year anniversary today of landfall in LA…..the devastating storm really shed some light (to the non-weather enthusiasts) on the true power of tropical systems…..

Katrina.png
Last edited 4 months ago by ChanceShowerLA
Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago

Maysak

wp1020.gif
Terry
Terry
4 months ago

cleaning up the land! thanks nature!

ss.png
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 15:00 PM JST August 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maysak (985 hPa) located at 16.8N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 nm from the center in western quadrant
150 nm from the center in eastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.5N 129.3E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 23.7N 127.9E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 280 km south of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 27.2N 125.7E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

Felipe Gomez
Felipe Gomez
4 months ago

Finally got here, from WU.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

comment image

56634094.gif
Last edited 4 months ago by HadesGodWyvern
KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

comment image

Unknowncomic
Unknowncomic
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Holding together for now.

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

The wave West of the AOI mentioned in the TWO looks to be more organised and has more vorticity it is located at 13N 39W. This area of disturbed weather is also moving west

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

comment image TS Iselle hanging around Clarion island (to the west)

Last edited 4 months ago by HadesGodWyvern
Skyepony
4 months ago

More footage
from Laura..

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

another test video

otoole
otoole
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

wurks gud.

NaderAlley
NaderAlley
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Lol why

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 9:00 AM JST August 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maysak (985 hPa) located at 16.5N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
180 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5-

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.8N 129.5E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 22.7N 128.8E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 410 km southeast of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)
72 HRS: 26.8N 126.4E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image

Last edited 4 months ago by HadesGodWyvern
otoole
otoole
4 months ago

I see some people have avatars how do you do that? thx

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago
Reply to  otoole

use link below follow steps

https://en.gravatar.com/

otoole
otoole
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

thanks, I will check it out.

otoole
otoole
4 months ago

that haiyan/yolanda pic in the article, about to cause so much heartbreak. That was nasty personified.

My future ex and my kids were in Manila and Cebu at the time, they were lucky to just see a lot of wind, I was white knuckling it.

Then, they were in Hawaii, on the big island, when Lane came by – fortunately they were on the Kona side, unbelievable!

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago

video refresh to see

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Oof
a friend of mine who moved my way after Katrina just left today to help her folks out after this
Her sister lost their house completely,
Her Dad got flooded out

Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago
Reply to  WxColorado

Sorry to hear that.

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

when I see overturned vehicles rushing by at over 30mph, yeah, that’s major

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

video refresh to see

Earl M Williams
Earl M Williams
4 months ago

Dropping in to add a little traffic.

Todd Mulvaney
Todd Mulvaney
4 months ago

Skye glad to see you here….I’ve been on WU since 2014….been using the bootleg Disqus thread thus far…miss Grothar and Cariboy on here though

Weatherman Will
Weatherman Will
4 months ago
Reply to  Todd Mulvaney

Got a link to that Todd; bootleg Disqus thread?

Jackie Paddock
Jackie Paddock
4 months ago

So happy to find this blog. I miss you all at WU. Lurker and lover of all things weather for many years. Is there a way to add this site to my home screen?

jason weed
4 months ago

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Laura, located inland over western Kentucky.
A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward at about
15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

jason weed
4 months ago

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Laura, located inland over western Kentucky.
A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward at about
15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean
near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very
slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago

update

two_atl_5d0.png
Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago

Thanks for the great read Dr. Masters, i believe that we all need to get used and acomodate to the new type of storms we will keep getting.

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago
Reply to  Dirk

no choice

Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Nope sadly enough no more, it´s too late we past the turn.:(

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9 – 3:00 AM JST August 29 2020
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maysak (990 hPa) located at 16.6N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost southwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
===================
180 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0-

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.4N 129.8E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 21.8N 129.7E – 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Okinawa
72 HRS: 26.2N 126.9E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

NOTES: close to 105 knots means Intense Typhoon status

100 knots (JMA 10 min) should be west Naha, Okinawa or nearby Kume Island

Plombo#5
Plombo#5
4 months ago

Getting a very welcome thunderstorm here in coastal NJ at the moment.

Brad
Brad
4 months ago

We obviously follow the Atlantic most closely. But typically the Atlantic averages only about 14% of global ACE. The typical Western Pacific ACE average is almost triple the Atlantic and the East Pacific also historically has higher ACE than the Atlantic. However in recent years the Atlantic seems much more active than the East Pacific, and the West Pacific has an almost nonexistent typhoon season so far in 2020.

What the reason for the lull in East and West Pacific activity? Shouldn’t all basins experience the hyperactivity the Atlantic has been having?

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago
Reply to  Brad

La Nina

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Brad

Yeah. it also, not all that surprisingly, leads to droughts in the SW US
I haven’t seen more than the barest teaser of rain in months this year
EPAC storms keep me wetter than currently for sure

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Brad

no, it tends to shift basins from year to year
El Niño patterns have some to do with it, there is also the PDO, AOI, the IOD, the temporal alignment of the MJO, and the Kelvin Waves to consider
this year, it is seriously favoring the North Atlantic Basin

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago

Atlantic basin…..

comment image

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

SAL or simply developed dry air?

PR-S.O.S.
4 months ago
Reply to  WxColorado

A very thick dust cloud CALL SAL, we in PR, get it all the time-

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago

comment image?w=600&h=369

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

amazing how the areas with the biggest heat anomalies are also in positions to be least tapped by storms
Great Lakes excepted

TampaLurker
TampaLurker
4 months ago

All of this is exactly why I decided about a decade ago to close up the house with the approach of any hurricane I suspect may undergo rapid intensification and predicted to landfall within 100 miles in any direction. I’ll take the family, the critters, any irreplaceable photos, documents, or heirlooms and GTFO.

I decided that I’d rather feel silly than sorry.

jiiski
jiiski
4 months ago
Reply to  TampaLurker

Agree 100%, though I didn’t leave this time because of COVID. I will next time.

Buubacanoe
Buubacanoe
4 months ago
Reply to  TampaLurker

I am definitely rethinking my escape plan. Of course my spouse must report to work or lose his job so I really don’t like the idea of leaving him.

jason weed
4 months ago

watching

36494395.gif
Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago
Reply to  jason weed

Where is this longitude

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  Stormfury

I guess it’s Tropical Disturbance 1 on the NHC outlook map..

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago

Testing….I made a post 5 minutes ago that isn’t showing and said “awaiting approval”….I’ve never seen that message before….Testing

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

It’s been approved:) This issue is resolving. The more everyone posts the better it will get.

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Thanks Skye for all your help!

Dirk
Dirk
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Thanks for all Skye, altough i will keep visiting your site aswell if you dont mind 😉

Alan Newton
Alan Newton
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

I still cant figure out how to refresh comments on here. I am using my android.

jiiski
jiiski
4 months ago
Reply to  Alan Newton

I guess it depends on the device. On MacBook pro it’s command + R.
Here’s what I found by googling “how to refresh a page on android” — hope it helps:

On Android, you must first tap the ⋮ icon in the top-right corner of the screen and then tap the “Refresh” icon at the top of the resulting drop-down menu.Feb 17, 2020

WxColorado
WxColorado
4 months ago
Reply to  jiiski

yeah, unfortunately they don’t op up automatically

Alan Newton
Alan Newton
4 months ago
Reply to  jiiski

Thank you