Hurricane Laura

Hurricane Laura put on a phenomenal show of rapid intensification prior to landfall, increasing in strength by 65 mph in just 24 hours on August 26, 2020. That ties Hurricane Karl of 2010 for fastest intensification rate in the Gulf of Mexico on record. In the 24 hours prior to landfall, Laura’s winds increased by 45 mph, and the mighty hurricane made landfall in western Louisiana as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds – the strongest landfalling hurricane in Louisiana history, and the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall.

Laura’s rapid intensification was a disturbing déjà vu of what had happened just two years earlier.

Analysis

As Hurricane Michael sped northwards on October 9, 2018, towards a catastrophic landfall on Florida’s Panhandle, the mighty hurricane made an exceptionally rapid intensification. Michael’s winds increased by 45 mph in the final 24 hours before landfall, taking it from a low-end category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds to catastrophic category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. And Michael’s performance echoed what had happened in 2017, when Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified by 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds.

Human-caused climate change causing more rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes

Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Laura and Michael and Harvey more common.

According to research published in 2019 in Nature Communications, Atlantic hurricanes showed “highly unusual” upward trends in rapid intensification during the period 1982 – 2009, trends that can be explained only by including human-caused climate change as a contributing cause. The largest change occurred in the strongest 5% of storms: for those, 24-hour intensification rates increased by about 3 – 4 mph per decade between 1982 – 2009.

Led by hurricane scientist Kieran Bhatia of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – and titled “Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates” – the study used the HiFLOR model to simulate intense hurricanes. HiFLOR is widely accepted as the best high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes.

Dangerous scenario – rapidly intensifying hurricane making landfall

Rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Michael and Harvey that strengthen just before landfall are among the most dangerous storms, as they can catch forecasters and populations off guard, risking inadequate evacuation efforts and large casualties. A particular concern is that intensification rate increases are not linear as the intensity of a storm increases – they increase by the square power of the intensity.

Lack of warning and rapid intensification just before landfall were key reasons for the high death toll from the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, the most intense hurricane on record to hit the U.S. That storm intensified by 80 mph in the 24 hours before landfall, and it topped out as a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds and an 892 mb pressure at landfall. At least 408 people were killed, making it the eighth-deadliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Another rapidly intensifying hurricane at landfall, Hurricane Audrey in June 1957, tracked on nearly the same course as Hurricane Laura. Audrey was the seventh deadliest U.S. hurricane, killing at least 416. Its winds increased by 35 mph in the 24 hours before landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Lack of warning and an unexpectedly intense landfall were cited as key reasons for the high death toll.

With today’s satellites, radar, regular hurricane hunter flights, and advanced computer forecast models, the danger that another Audrey or 1935 Labor Day hurricane could take us by surprise is lower.

Video: Jeff Masters on 2019 Hurricanes

But all of that sophisticated technology didn’t help much for 2007’s Hurricane Humberto, which hit Texas as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Humberto had the most rapid increase in intensity, 65 mph, in the 24 hours before landfall of any Atlantic hurricane since 1950. A mere 18 hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 2007 had predicted a landfall intensity of just 45 mph, increasing its forecast estimate to 65 mph six hours later. It’s fortunate that Humberto was not a stronger system, as the lack of adequate warning could have led to serious losses of life.

Historical records show that since 1950, the eight storms have intensified by at least 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall. It is sobering to see three of those storms, below in bold face, occurred in the past four years:

Humberto, 2007 (65 mph increase);
King 1950 (60 mph increase);
Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase);
Danny 1997 (50 mph increase);
Laura 2020 (45 mph increase);
Michael 2018 (45 mph increase);
Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase);
and
Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase).

Extreme rapid intensification rates just before landfall to become more common

In a 2016 study – “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel used a computer model that generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes between 1979 and 2005. Emanuel then compared their intensification rates to a similar set of hurricanes generated in the climate expected at the end of the 21st century.

For the future climate, he assumed a business-as-usual approach to climate change – the path we are currently on. Emanuel found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every 5 – 10 years.

What’s more, 24-hour pre-landfall intensifications of 115 mph or more, essentially nonexistent in the late 20th-century climate, would occur as often as once every 100 years by the year 2100. Emanuel found that major metropolitan areas most at risk for extreme intensification rates just before landfall included Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Miami.

Figure 1
Figure 1. VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at 1619 UTC November 7, 2013. Haiyan at that point was about to make landfall near Tacloban in the Philippines with 190 mph winds, the strongest land-falling tropical cyclone in recorded history. (Image credit: NOAA/CIRA)

Eight-fold increase in ultra-intense hurricanes predicted

The same HiFLOR high-resolution global climate model for simulating intense hurricanes referenced above produced some rather startling findings detailed in a 2018 paper, Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model.

The scientists who authored that paper forecast a dramatic increase in the global incidence of rapid intensification as a result of global warming, and a 20% increase in the number of major hurricanes globally.

For the Atlantic, the model projected an increase from three major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 20th century, to five major hurricanes per year in the climate of the late 21st century.

The HiFLOR model also predicted a highly concerning increase in ultra-intense Category 5 tropical cyclones with winds of at least 190 mph – from an average of about one of these Super Typhoon Haiyan–like storms occurring once every eight years globally in the climate of the late 20th century, to one such megastorm per year between 2081 to 2100 – a factor of eight increase.

Even more concerning was that the results of the study were for a middle-of-the road global warming scenario (called RCP 4.5), which civilization will have to work very hard to achieve. Under the current business-as-usual track, the model would be expected to predict an even higher increase in ultra-intense tropical cyclones.

One technique for computing hurricane damage uses ICAT’s damage estimator to review all contiguous land-falling U.S. hurricanes between 1900 – 2017. That technique computes the amount of damage they would do currently and corrects for changes in wealth and population. It finds that while Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 13% of all U.S. hurricane landfalls during that period, they caused 52% of all the hurricane damage.

Given that assessment, it’s very concerning that the HiFLOR model, the best model for simulating current and future behavior of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, is predicting a large increase in the number of these destructive storms. Even more concerning is the model’s prediction of a global factor of eight increase in catastrophic Category 5 storms with winds of at least 190 mph by the end of the century – and that under a moderate global warming scenario.

All of which leads to the regrettable conclusion that the prospects for quickly intensifying storms as they approach landfall are likely to increase in a warming world.

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Posted August 27, 2020, at 3:56 p.m. EDT.

Topics: Climate Science, Weather Extremes
288 Comments
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NCHurricane2009
4 months ago

Link to today’s birdseye view chart of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here. This is my 105th such chart this season, shows the remnants of Laura over the United States as well as our two tropical waves being watched for development, with notes on what’s going on with each of those systems.

jason weed
4 months ago

maybe invest soon

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ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago

Afternoon everyone….Marco and Laura put a dent in the very warm (“hot”) SST’s in the GOM…..latest 7-days trend shows a decent decrease (pic on bottom)…..however the temps are still high enough to maintain a tropical system throughout the Caribbean….

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Barfolomew
Barfolomew
4 months ago

Great post and very much something that should be informing a national discussion were these more rational times. I would have loved to be at a point where the presidential debate involved politicians debating the merits of fortification vs. retreat as related to our extensive vulnerable coastal areas.

Last edited 4 months ago by Barfolomew
Barfolomew
Barfolomew
4 months ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

Sorry about the repeat. “Moderation”

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
4 months ago

Great post and very much something that should be informing a national discussion (were these more rational times). I would have loved to be at a point where the presidential debate involved politicians debating the merits of fortification vs. retreat as related to our extensive vulnerable coastal areas. The overlap of negative impacts from a warming climate resulting in the 3 punch combo of sea level rise + inundated marshes and natural coastal barriers + stronger storms is daunting. I am not sure people really apprehend the overall impact, or it is so overwhelming they are choosing to ignore it. Already, the most vulnerable parts of cities such as norfolk and miami are inundated with increasing frequency during abnormally high tides. What will happen first: any particular coastal city is made uninhabitable because of near daily saltwater intrusion (impact on property and infrastructure) or it is obliterated by some future hurricane? 

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

99Lcomment image

jason weed
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

its that 99l now

Northeast Quadrant
Northeast Quadrant
4 months ago

Fascinating post, Doc, and equally alarming. No doubt these are intensifying more rapid lately.

Shira
Shira
4 months ago

Marc Thiessen was on the Mississippi Coast when Katrina struck. His cameras captured the storm surge here. He invented the scientific instrument Reed Timmer used in LA for Hurricane Laura:

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1299403254464491527

Last edited 4 months ago by Shira
Jody Tishmack
4 months ago

Dr. Masters, what do you think about the reduction in actual storm surge vs. forecast amount? Is it possible that the reduction may be related to where the storm made landfall and the amount of undeveloped coastal marsh land along that stretch of coast line?
I’d love to see an article on how coastal wetlands and marshes protect us from devastating storm surge. Or maybe you already wrote such an article.
https://www.salon.com/2018/10/14/conserving-wetlands-helps-reduce-hurricane-damaga_partner/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z#Sec1

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
4 months ago
Reply to  Jody Tishmack

It’s an interesting article but it focuses on marshes. I would like to see a similar article that looks at mangroves as a mitigator of surge. Unlike marshes that can be flooded and lose their effectiveness at reducing surge, mangroves in many areas are taller than all but the most enormous surges.

Jody Tishmack
4 months ago
Reply to  Ed Stock

This year’s Cyclone Amphan hit Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest on Earth. It will be interesting to see how the mangrove forest recovers.
I’m also interested in coastal marsh and mangrove forests because they may play a role in sequestering carbon.
” Healthy coastal habitat is not only important for seafood and recreation, it also plays an important role in reducing climate change. Salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds absorb large quantities of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it, thus decreasing the effects of global warming. These types of habitat are known as carbon sinks and contain large stores of carbon accumulated over hundreds to thousands of years.” https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coastal-blue-carbon/

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
4 months ago
Reply to  Jody Tishmack

Both marshes and mangroves (post below) assume that the frequency of major storms (category 3 +) is such that the natural system has time to recover between events. Per the Dr. Jeff’s post, how sustainable are these systems if the average time span between landfalls increases from once every 50-100 years to something like once every 10-30 years? By the way, I am totally making up that last set of numbers. I just know that barrier islands, marshes and mangrove stands require a lengthy period to completely recover to pre-storm health.

Jody Tishmack
4 months ago
Reply to  Barfolomew

You make a good point. I found this information that found it takes 10-15 years for mangrove recovery but it will depend on several factors including the type of mangrove trees. I also wonder what humans can do to help mangrove and marshes become healthier? https://nmsfloridakeys.blob.core.windows.net/floridakeys-prod/media/docs/20181016-fwcmangrove.pdf

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago

The catl tropical wave about 900 miles east of the windward islands is showing increasing signs of organisation as it moves westward at 15 mph.
The wave is in an area of low shear and if Is enveloped in an area of moisture.
None of the.models are hinting development before the system reaches the windward islands.

Last edited 4 months ago by Stormfury
Terry
Terry
4 months ago

tornadoes spawning!

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Shira
Shira
4 months ago

Tomorrow marks 15 years since Katrina slammed onto the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

One of the things that brought us hope and a lot of cheer were the sunflowers that started popping up all over the place. They were almost as numerous as all the volunteers who came to help us.

https://www.sunherald.com/news/weather-news/article245209105.html?fbclid=IwAR08iU7D1eHuTaRcYruG3URdTg7CH4zwj72omtwah5mJBOjoKhtDxoYpt64

Paul
4 months ago

Our pale blue dot’s motion around the sun gives us day and night, seasons, and occasional ice ages. Here is a great video that explains our path as we hurtle through space. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82p-DYgGFjI Are there any long range weather models that take this motion into account since Milankovitch?

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago
Reply to  Paul

According to the Milankovich cycle we should be getting colder right now, it is incorporated into some longer term climate models. Weather models are different and are run out into just the near future, those don’t incorporate the Milankovich cycle. It is included in Nasa’s Climate Time Machine. It’s also been validated by ice core data from around the earth. https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine

Last edited 4 months ago by Skyepony (mod)
elioe
elioe
4 months ago
Reply to  Paul

Longest range of weather models is 16 days. No need to include Milankovitch cycles on such short timespan, as the effect would be 0.0001 degrees Celsius at maximum. To my knowledge, no weather model even takes into account, how human activity emits CO2 within those 16 days… even though accounting for that might impact the outcome by 0.001 degrees Celsius.

Paul
4 months ago
Reply to  elioe

I had the HiFlor model in mind that includes predictions all the way to 2100 referenced in Dr. Jeff’s comments. One of the earth’s gyrations takes a mere 27 years. BTW in years past with a boat at Rudee Inlet Dr. Jeff was my first “port of call” on the www when deciding whether to run from a storm. Thanks Doc! You saved me a few thousand gallons of fuel. You’re everybody’s favorite.

elioe
elioe
4 months ago
Terry
Terry
4 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmIkppjplqU throw back! abrupt climate change

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 21:00 PM JST August 28 2020
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T2009)
=================================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maysak (996 hPa) located at 16.7N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost west southwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
===================
150 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.2N 129.9E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 20.8N 130.5E – 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Okinawa
72 HRS: 25.7N 128.0E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Okinawa

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

very strong .

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
4 months ago
Reply to  terry

quick too. the pressure is estimated to drop to 925 in 3 days.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
4 months ago

Christopher Bannan@ulmwxr
Thanks to my colleague Phil for pointing this out to me & @backinblack_wx
for looking at surge info all day, we did come across the Corp gage on the Mermentau River at Grand Chenieer.
https://twitter.com/ulmwxr/status/1299153532734431234?s=20

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Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
4 months ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

… Just want to point out location of Grand Chenier is depicted on the twitter link provided above.

Last edited 4 months ago by Barefootontherocks
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
4 months ago

Flood news from yesterday while we were watching the impacts of Laura:

Record floods cause deaths and widespread damage in Sudan
https://news.trust.org/item/20200827144816-dpc94/
 Flood waters in Sudan have reached the highest levels on record, killing dozens of people, destroying thousands of homes and encroaching on some neighbourhoods of the capital Khartoum.

August rains flood Pakistan’s financial capital, shatter records
https://news.trust.org/item/20200827113532-g056f/
Torrential rain lashed the Pakistani financial capital of Karachi on Thursday, causing widespread flooding, as downpours in August shattered 89-year-old records for the city, meteorological officials said.

Death toll rises to 122 in Afghan flash floods, many missing
https://news.trust.org/item/20200827050639-r16ei/
Survivors said many children were among the dead. The death toll was expected to rise as families prepared for mass burials with extensive rubble yet to be cleared.

Last edited 4 months ago by BarbaraGermany
Terry
Terry
4 months ago

here we go! natural balance!

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terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Terry

off to china?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Mid-level still perking in a moisture rich environment off the eastern Yucatan, though convectionless for now. Little ball of convection will likely come into the orbit of the mid-level overnight. Shear’s been increasing across the area throughout the day. Maybe 10% of a yellow X by morning. It is truely hard to love your neighbor as yourself these days isn’t it? What they want us all to think of either political persuation, we should have no empathy for them. I say our Nation is better than that and smarter than that. One thing never doubt is my hope. I have so many here I respect, learned from, and they represent that hope I have. Love y’all, like it or not, we’re family. And as a good family member visiting, I’ll take my leave for real this time for a few days. Family is loved most when they leave sometimes. Double entendre if you feel me. Goodnight YCC.comment image

TybeeTime (SS)
TybeeTime (SS)
4 months ago

Some thoughts and analysis that likely prove nothing more than I have too much time on my hands:

Radar analysis of mesovortices within Hurricane Laura.

Last night at approximately 2 AM CDT, reporters and live streamers in Lake Charles, LA had been hammered by the northern inner eyewall of Hurricane Laura for nearly an hour. The storm had taken out the regional NWS office radar tower, but coverage from neighboring towers seemed to indicate they would soon get a breather as the clear, calm eye passed over. However, the next 30 minutes would actually bring them the most destructive part of the storm.

Most of the live video was shot in and around downtown Lake Charles, mostly centered around the Capital One Building and it’s parking deck. The Weather Channel had a crew set up on the west bank of the lake at the Isle of Capri Casino. Houston radar at 1:56 AM indicated these locations were at the very edge of the eyewall and would pass into the calmness of the eye within minutes. So why did the storm become even more furious, as seen in chaser Reed Timmer’s video below?

https://www.facebook.com/re
Skip to 10 minutes into the video for the beginning of the most violent part of the storm

A series of destructive mesovortices (mesos in weather buff shorthand) hit Lake Charles even as the eye had begun to pass over the area. These powerful eddys within the eyewall pack the destructive force of a tornado, though sometimes spread over a larger area.

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Radar loop of Hurricane Laura with mesos swirling around the eye.

Before the Lake Charles radar tower was destroyed, it was showing Laura’s eye structure was filled with a large number of mesos in various sizes and intensities. Smaller, more angular mesovortices curl out like small fingers or form divots in the eyewall. Larger mesos appear more circular and can extend into the eye itself.

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On approach before landfall, radar was already indicating some very violent mesovortices about 3000-5000 feet aloft. Many showed radar returns in excess of 200mph.

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Unfortunately, after the radar tower was destroyed, we lost high definition reflectivity from the inner core of the storm. However, the Houston radar indicated at about 1:57 AM CDT that a large mesovortex was headed right into Lake Charles, likely followed by a series of smaller mesos racing along the inner eyewall.
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Radar snapshot from 1:56-1:57AM CDT, just before the subjective max wind observations on live video.

Many on the ground reported strange windshifts and swirling motion in the violent period that followed, before finally passing into the calm eye. Reed Timmer deployed a microbarometer that actually may have recorded the extreme pressure flux that occurs inside of a mesovortex.

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https://www.facebook.com/16

These are just my thoroughly unscientific observations, but I think something about Laura’s structure, or the way it was interacting with the environment, made it conducive for large anad powerful mesovortices that likely enhanced wind damage for locations well-inland

JCheeverLoophole42
JCheeverLoophole42
4 months ago
Reply to  TybeeTime (SS)

Very interesting post; thank you.

Marcd
Marcd
4 months ago
Reply to  TybeeTime (SS)

This post helped me understand phenomena that occurs in hurricanes, I believe this happened in Andrew, and explains why some buildings are leveled, while nearby buildings sustain only moderate damage. Thanks for this awesome post!

Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
4 months ago
Reply to  TybeeTime (SS)

Thanks for posting this!..
and good on Reed Timmer and his research colleagues.

Barfolomew
Barfolomew
4 months ago
Reply to  TybeeTime (SS)

Thank you for this post!

M.LeCyril
4 months ago

Wot no proper comments? Hashtag sadface

karma
karma
4 months ago
Reply to  M.LeCyril

I agree: This is a very timely & important, interesting article that deserves respect in the form of intelligent commentary. Two likely reasons for so few comments: 1. Burnout following our anxious, sleepless vigil for those in Laura’s path. 2. I think most folks have gone back to commenting at the Disqus wunderground site for now. It seems they’re not so happy with ease of commenting here yet (trouble inserting images & links, having comments disappear while ‘pending’).. I really hope that gets sorted out soon so we can support YCC/EOTS as our new home instead of using alternative sites for commenting.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago
Reply to  karma

The disappearing “pending” comments issue was fixed last night. Images are easier to insert here than disqus, upload up to 7mb or copy image and paste from the internet. It’s getting better.

karma
karma
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

Super! Thanks much!

Jody Tishmack
4 months ago
Reply to  karma

I don’t mind a slower pace of better quality comments.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

kath
any research on cyclones stalling out getting trapped and do the complete phase out over a particular area as prevailing jet streaks collapse

Jexpat
Jexpat
4 months ago

Hurricane Laura Rips Down ‘South’s Defenders’ Confederate Statue In Lake Charles
…when Hurricane Laura walloped Lake Charles, La., Thursday, the controversial statue was toppled by one of the strongest storms ever to hit Louisiana. The South’s Defenders Memorial Monument features a young flag-bearing soldier, looking out over the lawn of the Calcasieu Parish Courthouse, where it has stood for more than 100 years. But Laura, which came ashore as a Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph, knocked the soldier off its pedestal and onto the grass.

To resident Renee C., who didn’t want to use her last name out of concern that her employer might not approve, the downing of the statue is one of the only bright spots from Laura’s tumultuous visit to Lake Charles.

More here: https://www.npr.org/sections/hurricane-laura-live-updates/2020/08/27/906717766/hurricane-laura-rips-down-south-s-defenders-confederate-statue-in-lake-charles

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Last edited 4 months ago by Jexpat
Kathleen Benedetto
4 months ago

This was a very interesting and informative read! For your section on “Dangerous scenario-rapidly intensifying hurricanes making landfall”, the paper that my advisor Jill Trepanier and I just published in March may be of interest to you. We found a pattern of hurricanes having undergone RI and reaching their Maximum Lifetime Intensity just prior to making landfall along the Gulf Coast. I’ll attach the link here if you’d like to look into it–it is open access published in Atmosphere. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/3/291

Also, in my own records from studying these RI storms, I actually have that Hattie (1961) intensified the most over a 24 hour period by 69 mph. It was within the first 24 hours of formation. Just wanted to let you know. Thanks for a great article!

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

The truth is a soft whisper
Hidden by a hurricane of those who wish it not spoken

Thank you YCC and Docs

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
4 months ago

2 blog posts on the same day….another great read!

Laura taking a “punch” from the trough with dry air….and she’s still drawing some moisture from the GOM…..
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Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Teachers can’t say anything, they’ll be fired. Scientists can’t, they’ll be fired. You a major chaser? Ya can’t say too much or blackballing will visit you. You want to speak up as a cop? You’ll be filling out a new application tomorrow. If you are a “professional” you can’t say much without great risk in 2020. People see me through whatever lense they view me through, but any who really know me, you know sincerity and fearlessness. People have been painted into corners. Most into tribalistic ones. Jeff and Bob always struck me as those not in that box. Why I’ve always respected them so much. The humor is I’m well known up the food chain and they want you, the public, to care. There lies the rub. God speed your recovery Louisiana.

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

I have to say, in a nation of 350+ million, it is truely disturbing to see how few are allowed, and or care to, find YCC or even the old blog for that matter. The powers that be seem to be able to keep the masses from the truths of the likes of Jeff Masters and Bob Henson bring. And people don’t question it. They accept it as normal. And who will speak on it? I will. I do notice the silence to me.

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
T B
T B
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

But how many of those 350M are actually interested in extreme weather? Those of us that are will find our way here. Those that aren’t won’t. Different people care about different things. There doesn’t need to be anything sinister behind it.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  T B

Logic tells us in a nation of 350 million something is off. All I’m saying. They have compartmentalized us all very well. What made this compartmenatalization into narrow thought corners of group think possible? Technology. What is meant to trend does. People are funnelled exactly where those not for us want them. That reality is all around us.

karma
karma
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

But how do you know how many people read & value YCC and many other informative sites but don’t generally post comments?
I’ve been reading Wunderground Cat 6 blog anonymously for years, and subscribed & reading YCC articles regularly since it was first mentioned on Cat 6. When Cat 6 closed access to comments I lost the links to alternative blogs but had no problem finding the new Disqus wunderground site and several others (quick Google search). That’s where you’ll find most of the comments on YCC articles for now, while commenting glitches here get sorted out.
I don’t know how long the Disqus site will stay alve, but it’s been quite active there among those who have had problems posting here (images, live links, ‘pending’ comments that never post for unknown reasons). Also, it seems some of the Cat6 old-timers chose to disengage entirely when Cat6 commenting closed. (Maybe a case of misplaced loyalty?) In any case, I hope the regulars will migrate back here soon, also newbies of course, so we can consolidate discussion here and show our support for these important & informtive articles.
I’m not big on posting comments on ANY site unless I have something useful to contribute. That doesn’t mean I don’t care or don’t read the infomed commentary of others.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Western Caribbean disturbance update. Low level went to EPAC, convection left with end of Laura tail. Naked mid level spinning east Yucatan in the northern Gulf of Honduras. All his friends left, likely die overnight. comment image

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

thx u . was looking at that blow up earlier but its dying off now

jiiski
jiiski
4 months ago

Thanks for this important and interesting article, Dr. Masters.
(I surely do miss the old blog, but I will get used to this new venue. The overall Yale site is awesome, and I’m grateful for it.)

jazz_chi
jazz_chi
4 months ago

Is the question of CC impact on hurricanes the right focus? With higher moisture in the air and warmer oceans, it seems logical that hurricanes would be impacted in some fashion. But do we really need “CC makes hurricanes scarier” as a tipping point with the other devastating impacts happening worldwide?

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  jazz_chi

As it is happening now, literally yesterday, and this season highlights CC consequences well, the question is why not? We could put CC in really much much deeper context globally. I could do that in the next ten minutes that would make people’s head’s spin. But could they consume such? Doesn’t take much to overload a person’s donkey these days with all people have on their plates.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  jazz_chi

The deeper tipping points with devastating impacts aren’t for the public’s perview. People are FULLY distracted from all those jazz chi. It’s surely dangerous. Libya, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Brazil, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Syria, we could go on where devastation is an everyday reality. CC and food shortages are projected to do horrible things to the world’s most vulnerable this year. I truely do hate this evil.

Weather watcher
Weather watcher
4 months ago
Reply to  jazz_chi

If I’m following you correctly, you are wondering why we need to emphasize this when there are so many other terrible things caused by climate change that we can make a point about?
What I am seeing with many, is that it takes so much to catch their attention. If “scarier hurricanes” can finally make this real to people then it is worth pointing it out. Some people’s eyes glaze over at ocean temps and such, but the concept of stronger hurricanes gets their attention.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
4 months ago

Looks like found the missing comments.. Give us some hours or til morning to get it all figured out and fixed.

Wyatt~ Thank you for your persistence..you were a big help in this. Thanks to all the others that posted screenshots & helped get this unraveled!

Great blog Dr Masters!

Last edited 4 months ago by Skyepony (mod)
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Skyepony (mod)

I’m grateful to be here Skyepony. I feel many of us who go back a long time know one another better than we’ll ever know. Thank you, Keep, and the good Docs for being so long suffering with me.

Last edited 4 months ago by Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

If truth were a hurricane everyone would evacuate. I would know.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Haters of the truth gonna hate. Doesn’t change the truth.

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

well put

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago

Irma, Michael, Maria, Laura, Jose, Matthew, Harvey, Wilma, we could go on for some time. RI is a problem in recent history. 2020 will very likely show that multiple more times.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
4 months ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

Dorian, Rita, Katrina, Charley, Joaquin, and it’s a scary list isn’t it for recent RI history?

tropicofcancer
tropicofcancer
4 months ago

Hard to believe I have been reading Doc’s blogs for 16 years.Here’s
hoping he keeps doing it for another 20!

Last edited 4 months ago by tropicofcancer
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
4 months ago

Little Chenier, Rutherford Beach, Creole

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-1X_b_4nMA

Last edited 4 months ago by BarbaraGermany
terry
terry
4 months ago

great update! thanks very much for the informative post!

sw.png
terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  terry

looking at gom

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  terry

hmm

jimijr
jimijr
4 months ago

Tropospheric warming from climate change has resulted in a cooler stratosphere, as compensation. The strongest storms’ cloud tops are enabled to penetrate the tropopause into the cooler air aloft, enhancing their vertical motion and overall storm strength. Sound like a plausible physical mechanism?

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

video refresh

terry
terry
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

wow

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

video refresh

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
4 months ago

Wow to our scary future in the tropics. I wonder if trends are also leading to larger storms too in addition to more powerful. thanks sir.

Buubacanoe
Buubacanoe
4 months ago
Reply to  Sunrisemama

I always thought I could never leave the Gulf Coast. Hoping this year does not force my hand.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

video

Weatherman Will
Weatherman Will
4 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

All things considered; not too bad.
Had Laura had another 12-24 hours over water it would have been horrendous.
I’d never thought telephone poles would still be standing as well as trees and trees with leaves.

Stormfury
Stormfury
4 months ago

It looks like the AOI in the CATL is getting better organised and maybe classified as 99L during the next 24 hrs

Stella
Stella
4 months ago
Reply to  Stormfury

unfortunately tybee showed there is 3 in the making

Paul
4 months ago

I’m fascinated by models that predict what will happen 50 years from now when models couldn’t agree five days ago where Laura was headed. Here are some historical facts about Virginia storms. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/hurricanehistory.pdf The October 19, 1749 event is particularly interesting. Navigators have been careful to avoid Willoughby Spit since. The frequency of storms is also of interest.

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
4 months ago
Reply to  Paul

which model in particular fascinates you?

jiiski
jiiski
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Good question, Steve!

Paul
4 months ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

HiFlor.

NSAlito
NSAlito
4 months ago

If we’re talking about little warning, let’s throw in the increase in straight-line storms (derechos).

White Rabbit
White Rabbit
4 months ago

Dr. Masters is right. He was the only forecaster I saw predicting Laura would be a Major a week out from landfall. Why? Because current predictions and models haven’t caught up with the changes in Climate.

Andrew
Andrew
4 months ago

What about the effects of AGW on hurricane size and storm surge? It seems recent storms have tended to be larger in size and surge.

NSAlito
NSAlito
4 months ago
Reply to  Andrew

I think the basic AGW prediction on hurricanes was that there would be fewer small hurricanes (killed off by increased wind shear) and more majors.
I call it the “Nietzsche Effect”: That which does not kill it makes it stronger. Sorta.

Christopher Cartwright
Christopher Cartwright
4 months ago

This article was specifically written to answer some comments regarding Laura…
“it’s a TS” “season is a bust” and so on
All idiots commenting on stuff they have no clue about , and showing their IQ

Bravo Dr Masters

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
4 months ago

new entry

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