Tropical Depressions 13 and 14
Triple trouble: Tropical Depression 14, Tropical Depression 13, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, as seen at 11:20 a.m. Thursday August 20, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13), which formed in the central Atlantic on the evening of Wednesday, August 19, poses a threat as a tropical storm this weekend to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. TD 13 could affect the Bahamas and Florida as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A Tropical Storm Watch was up for most of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, TD 13 was located about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and headed west-northwest at 21 mph. Conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of about 5 knots. However, the system had moved into a drier region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite images showed TD 13 with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity slowly growing in organization and areal coverage.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of TD 13 at 11:20 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Heavy rain threat to Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico

A west-northwest motion will take TD 13 through or just north of the Leeward Islands Friday evening through Saturday, and the system is predicted to bring the islands 1 – 3 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are likely to see higher rainfall amounts of 3 – 6 inches through Sunday. With the islands on the weaker (left) side of TD 13’s circulation, wind damage should be limited. For a fast-moving system like TD 13, winds on the right (north) side likely will be at least 20 mph higher than those on the left (south) side.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Predicted path of TD 13 from the 6Z Thursday, August 20, 2020, run of the operational GFS model (black line) and its 21 ensemble members (colored lines, which show minimum central pressure). Model members showed a significant threat to the Bahamas and Florida, with about one-third of them showing TD 13 developing into a hurricane. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

The Bahamas and Florida at highest risk early next week

Assuming that TD 13 develops into a tropical storm and does not remain weak, a more northerly track is likely, which would keep the system north of the high mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. On that track, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahama Islands, and Florida are at highest risk of impacts early next week. The Bermuda high, which is steering TD 13, will be strong and will extend far to the west, though a weakness in the high may allow TD 13 to turn more to the northwest on Monday, when it will be near Florida. At that time, TD 13 may have to contend with higher wind shear from a trough of low pressure over the U.S., which might interfere with intensification. Until that time, wind shear is predicted to be a light to moderate 5 – 15 knots. Ocean temperatures will steadily warm over the next five days, reaching a very warm 30 – 31 degrees Celsius (86 – 88°F) by Monday. Warm waters extend to great depth over the Bahamas, giving the ocean a high heat content ideal for fueling rapid intensification.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate TD 13 Thursday evening. The aircraft will be feeding data from its Doppler radar in real time to the HWRF model, the only model currently configured to use this important source of extra data to make forecasts.

Most top intensity models predict TD 13 will become major hurricane and threaten Florida

The five main intensity models used by NHC are the regional/dynamical HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models (which subdivide the atmosphere into a 3-D grid around the storm and solve the atmospheric equations of fluid flow at each point on the grid), and the statistics-based LGEM and DSHP models. Two of the top-performing global dynamical models for tracking hurricanes – the European (ECMWF) and GFS models – typically are not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts, and both generally make poor intensity forecasts.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2019, compared to a “no skill” model called “Decay-SHIFOR5” that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior). OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; HMON=Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic regional model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model; Euro=European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model; COAMPS=COAMPS-TC regional model; LGEM=Logistic Growth Equation Model; DSHP=Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with inland decay. (Image credit: 2019 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report)

In 2019, the official NHC forecast did the best job predicting intensity, except for 5-day forecasts, which the COAMPS-TC model did a better job at. (See this review I wrote on hurricane model performance in 2019 for Yale Climate Connections.) Thus, NHC’s four-day and five-day intensity predictions that TD 13 will be a category 1 hurricane on Monday, when it makes its closest approach to Florida, is worth respecting. However, it is concerning that the 6Z Thursday run of the COAMPS-TC model, which outperformed the official NHC forecast at 5-day forecasts last year, predicted a category 3 hurricane as of Monday, August 24. In addition, two of the other top intensity models, the HWRF and HMON, also were predicting that TD 13 would be a category 3 hurricane on Monday. The other top intensity models, the LGEM and DSHP models, were predicting that TD 13 by then would be no more than a strong tropical storm.

Bottom line: the official NHC forecast of a category 1 hurricane near Florida on Monday has high uncertainty, but residents should anticipate that TD 13 could be a major hurricane that will hit Florida that day. That said, it is also possible TD 13 could be a disorganized tropical storm at that time, if significant land interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola occur.

Figure 4
Figure 4. The 6Z Thursday, August 20, 2020 forecast of the COAMPS-TC model, which made the best 5-day intensity forecasts in 2019. The model predicted that TD 13 would be a category 3 hurricane on Monday near the coast of Florida. The COAMPS-TC was the third-best track model in 2019, behind the European model and UKMET model. (Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory)

The next two names on the Atlantic list of storms are Laura and Marco. The earliest twelfth storm in Atlantic tropical history was Luis on August 29, 1995. There is a tie for earliest thirteenth storms, with Lee on September 2, 2011, and Maria on September 2, 2005. (Lee was originally the twelfth storm of the 2011 season, but an unnamed system that reached tropical storm strength on September 1, just before Lee, was discovered in post-season analysis.)

Figure 5
Figure 5. Visible GOES-16 satellite image of TD 14 at 10:20 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Tropical Depression 14 forms in the central Caribbean

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean, which NHC earlier this week designated 97L, developed into Tropical Depression Fourteen (TD 14) at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20. TD 14 was headed west at 21 mph with top winds of 35 mph, and a Tropical Storm Watch was posted for the northern coast of Honduras.

Dry air, which had been the bane of this system earlier this week, had diminished on Thursday morning, and TD 14 was in a relatively moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 65%. Conditions for development were favorable, with SSTs near 29.5 degrees Celsius (85°F) and light wind shear of 5 – 10 knots. Satellite images showed that TD 14 had an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity steadily growing in areal coverage and organization. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate TD 14 Thursday afternoon.

Forecast for TD 14

As TD 14 progresses west-northwestward through Saturday, its forward speed will slow as a result of the steering influence of a large trough of low pressure over the central U.S. The upper-level southwesterly winds ahead of this trough will turn TD 14 more to the northwest, and the system is likely to pass over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, TD 14 will find very favorable conditions for development. The 12Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere surrounding the system would moisten to a relative humidity of 75%, wind shear would be a light 5 – 10 knots, and SSTs would be a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F). The waters of the western Caribbean have the highest heat content of any place in the Atlantic, providing ample fuel for any tropical cyclone that passes across. These conditions likely will allow TD 14 to be near category 1 hurricane strength at landfall Saturday in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Crossing the Yucatan will weaken TD 14, and it may take a day for the storm to reorganize over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where SSTs are a very warm 30 degrees Celsius (86°F). An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Gulf at that time will bring dry air and high wind shear to TD 14, limiting how much re-intensification can occur. The long-range intensity forecast is uncertain, but TD 14 could be a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane when it makes its expected landfall on Tuesday along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Visible MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday morning, August 20, 2020. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Next up: a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa

A strong tropical wave located near the coast of Africa on Thursday morning has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend or early next week. The disturbance will move west-northwest at 15 – 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, passing to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands around Wednesday, August 25. In an 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the new African tropical wave two-day and five-day odds of formation of 20% and 40%, respectively.

Hurricane Genevieve scrapes the Baja Peninsula

Still clinging to Category 1 strength, Hurricane Genevieve passed dangerously close to the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday, August 20. As of 8 a.m. PDT Thursday, Genevieve was centered about 50 miles southwest of the peninsula, about halfway between Magdalena Bay and Cabo San Lucas and moving northwest, parallel to the peninsula, at 12 mph. The center’s closest approach to land may be when it passes just west of Magdalena Bay and the town of Puerto San Carlos on Thursday afternoon before angling slightly toward the open northeast Pacific.

The most reliable hurricane models, according to their 2019 performance

Intense rainbands were pushing across the southern Baja Peninsula on Thursday. Widespread 2 – 4 inch rains are expected, with a foot or more possible at higher elevations. Sustained winds could briefly hit tropical storm strength (39 mph or more). At 8 a.m. PDT, winds were 25 mph at the Cabo San Lucas International Airport, and 28 mph at the Manuel Marquez de Leon International Airport in La Paz.

Genevieve has weakened steadily since attaining its peak category 4 on Tuesday, August 18. Its track is bringing it over substantially cooler water, and the rugged terrain of the peninsula is disrupting flow around the northeast side of the storm. Genevieve will also be ingesting drier air over time. As a result, further weakening is expected, and Genevieve will likely be a tropical storm by late Thursday and a tropical depression by Saturday.

Bob Henson contributed the Hurricane Genevieve portion of this post.

Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting comments. View all EOTS posts here.

Topics: Weather Extremes
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Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago

There was a little of our interactive magic for you keep, for reals … if you review my commenting history from this morning forward. Seems the old place is down, maybe from all the traffic?

Welcome … everyone…. ( ‘cept that goofy dude … )

🙂 Yale.

Contango Madness
Contango Madness
2 months ago

Anyone seen Sparta over here yet?

carmot
carmot
2 months ago

During the switchover, he was here. For a few comments I think, about 24 hours ago.

RickWPB
RickWPB
2 months ago

TD 13 now Laura moving W (280 degrees @ 21 mph) per NHC. LLC further south than earlier thought,

Contango Madness
Contango Madness
2 months ago

I still think South FL is in play.
Bet we see another shift east in the models run later today….

Last edited 2 months ago by Contango Madness
Texascoastres
Texascoastres
2 months ago

Watching TD 14 very close

Contango Madness
Contango Madness
2 months ago

Hey everyone,
It looks like the Wunderground group has finally migrated here. Looking forward to the engrossing discussions as always!

Hank
Hank
2 months ago

Busy start

RickWPB
RickWPB
2 months ago

Thankfully it’s looking less likely that a major hurricane will hit S. FL. Not out of the question, but less of a chance. Models trending south and west.

Beantech
Beantech
2 months ago
Reply to  RickWPB

Shhh…You’ll ruin the FLCasters’ day!

MOT
MOT
2 months ago

blog is noot showing up on Cat6. is it me?

SOBX
SOBX
2 months ago
Reply to  MOT

Same here.

StormW
StormW
2 months ago

Good morning! Good to see some familiar faces on here!

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
2 months ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 21:00 PM JST August 21 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
=================================================
320 km south of Ishigaki Island (Okinawa Prefecture)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 25.0N 123.5E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 80 km northwest of Iriomote Island (Okinawa Prefecture)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
2 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

125 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes (Extreme Northern Luzon region)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
2 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

comment image

Jexpat
Jexpat
2 months ago

NWS Bay Area

We are also keeping an eye on the tropical system #Genevieve – Models are indicating its elevated moisture will move northward toward our area. A slight chance of scattered storms are possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Precip. accumulations will be minimal.

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Jexpat
Jexpat
2 months ago
Reply to  Jexpat

NWS Sacramento

Moisture will be pushing back north into Northern California this weekend into early next week. This will bring the return of thunderstorm chances. https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1296813053573574658

Ef8Rmj5UYAAPspN.jpg
BucYouUp68
BucYouUp68
2 months ago

comment image

Alanna
Alanna
2 months ago

I was a long time lurker over on WU and I was sad to see the comments gone last night. I hope things progress nicely here the same way they did on WU.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  Alanna
Alanna
Alanna
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Thanks!

David
David
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Thanks for the link. Have to try and figure this site out but live updating does not seem to be a feature of it and that is one of the most important of a blog site.

RickWPB
RickWPB
2 months ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

Thanks for the link. Couldn’t figure out how to get there any other way.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago

i got a full time trashing job here let me tell ya

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

You’re doing great keeper! Now you’ll have to show me how this old guy can post animated files…..I’m lost! 🙂

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

right click animation click copy image then paste in the copy on the comment box hit enter

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

Oh well, I tried…..I’ll keep trying, thanks!

Last edited 2 months ago by ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
2 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Test



Last edited 2 months ago by ChanceShowerLA
Jexpat
Jexpat
2 months ago

Per Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory 20A: Genevieve weakening as it moves farther away from the southwestern Baja California coast. expected to become a remnant low later today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/ep12/ep122020.public_a.020.shtml?

115834_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png
Last edited 2 months ago by Jexpat
GTstormChaserCaleb
GTstormChaserCaleb
2 months ago

Good Morning Everyone here is the pepto bismol satellite enhancement of TS Laura, courtesy of Mr. Grothar.

Screen Shot 2020-08-21 at 9.31.26 AM.png
Naturefiles
Naturefiles
2 months ago

Hey all. Just a test. First time posting here. I guess Disqus is finally dead?

Last edited 2 months ago by Naturefiles
cRR Kampen
cRR Kampen
2 months ago
Reply to  Naturefiles

Ditto.

Jeannie
Jeannie
2 months ago
Reply to  cRR Kampen

Ditto

Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
2 months ago

How do we make a poster invisible?

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago

just refresh BF i am deleting him as fast as he is posting

Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

TY 🙂

Michael Paul
Michael Paul
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

You Da Mod Keep!

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago

comment image?w=600&h=430

Art
Art
2 months ago

remember about a week or two ago ther CMC said there would be 2 hurricanes in the gulf..one on the west side of gulf..the other by Florida heading north…well as of Today im going to believe the CMC when it says a hurricane by and possibly In Florida……

Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago

Third time trying…we now have Laura!

Art
Art
2 months ago

one off africa says nothing about Florida……………..

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Thirteen, located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, 
located just offshore the northeastern coast of Honduras.

1. A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  This wave is expected to move farther offshore 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic today.  Conditions are 
expected to be conducive for some development over the next few 
days, and the system could become a tropical depression before 
environmental conditions become less favorable for development 
early next week.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward 
at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic, and 
regardless of development it will likely bring gusty winds across 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend, as well as heavy 
rains that could cause flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Brown
Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago

We now have Laura!

Tabludama
Tabludama
2 months ago

“Tell Laura that I love her” Old maudlin song from my teen years:

This sickening Earbug has popped up in my brain since Laura was named.

Sorry bout that! But misery needs company.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTjQgkHzbTk

Barefootontherocks
Barefootontherocks
2 months ago
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS 
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical 
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm 
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The 
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the 
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in 
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that 
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC). 


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

Add: Ex TD 13

Last edited 2 months ago by Barefootontherocks
Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago

Well hello Laura…welcome to our show. What just happened? 5am discussion they said it might be an open wave but still decided to keep it a TD…and now we officially have T.S. Laura? With the center to the South of last estimates

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago

Thanks for helping us learn the ins and outs of the new commenting system. We have learned that mods can’t ban people on this system. Den, most of your trite quips end with lmao or lol. You need a new trolling form letter, this one is redundant already … especially when you group your multiple comments in little spam clusters like you do.

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

u not assisting him are ya

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

You’re right keep. I’ll refrain from commenting. It’s blown me off of here though, hear that.

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

He’s literally the only thing I see when I drop in here dude. Gotta do something about that. It’s off-putting.

Last edited 2 months ago by Dobby
KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

trashing the comments as fast as he posts them

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

ur welcomed here dob just ignore the troll

KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

ur also my friend long time

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

After the homophobic bigotry from him the last time I logged on, I’ve had about enough. If it’s a free for all, let me hurt him, mentally. He’ll go away. He’s, like, usually the only person posting anyway when I check in. So, if you have no physical control … you may have to let people eat this troll for lunch.

But not today. At that other place, I am done. But here, I will be Dobby again.

Last edited 2 months ago by Dobby
KOTG(MOD)
KOTG(MOD)
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

thanks dob be patient with us we are working on things just a slow go is all

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago
Reply to  KOTG(MOD)

You got it keeps. I’m behind you all here at Yale, you know it. 🙂

Crazy here in Cowtown. Cold already in the mornings with shorter days … but crazy hot in the days, more like July should’ve been. All this after a weird wet cold June and July. Who knows what fall will bring.

Keep up the good fight keep.

carmot
carmot
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

I’m so glad to see you and to have heard from you, Dobby. YCC needs work to get commenting truly functioning. I think it’s due for Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson’s great work. Also for the community. I’m trying to have patience, but my patience is trying. Stay safe and be well, namaste brother.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

Dobby~ This one goes way beack..been banned on every platform we’ve been on yet. Does seem possibly very PTSD driven..

Art
Art
2 months ago
Tropical Depression 13, located around 305 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands, remains forecast to move fair quickly
west-northwest toward the Florida Straits and Keys through this
weekend and early next week. The system is forecast to be a strong
tropical storm as it approaches southern Florida and eventually a
hurricane as it moves past the Keys. Winds and seas will increase
enough to produce poor to locally hazardous boating conditions
Sunday night through Monday, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.
There may also be an increased potential for gusty showers and
squalls to impact the Atlantic waters, Treasure Coast, and Lake
Okeechobee regions.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Tropical Depression
13 from the National Hurricane Center, as well as your National
Weather Service office in Melbourne.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

$$
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
2 months ago
Reply to  Art

TD13 is now Laura:
comment image

Last edited 2 months ago by BarbaraGermany
Joris Meys
Joris Meys
2 months ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

great to see you’re here as well 🙂 I almost feared for a moment the community was gone. Going to take a while to get used to this commenting section though, but at least I know I can still get updates on the roses.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
2 months ago
Reply to  Joris Meys

Hi Joris, nice to see you here too! Most of us are still as specters in the old ghost house though – with a big boooh yesterday evening when the site got shut down for a while 🙂
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
2 months ago

TPW update:

comment image

Greenbelt
Greenbelt
2 months ago

Just a test, can’t get into the WU comments this morning. Looks like both 13 and 14 survived as depressions (probably) overnight.

Michael Paul
Michael Paul
2 months ago

test

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
2 months ago

Cat 6 comments still going strong, not sure why people haven’t made the move over, but….it’s POPPIN’ over there!

Michael Paul
Michael Paul
2 months ago

I cannot see comments over there

mitzblitz
mitzblitz
2 months ago
Reply to  Michael Paul
Lena
Lena
2 months ago

Off topic, but I’ve been following on here since the blog moved over. Anyone know if this is the final format or if it will link to disqus again, or if there is a different plan for the community? I haven’t posted here until now – not entirely used to this place. I occasionally peeked in at the old WU, lots still posting there til it closed down but not coming over here. Just curious because I had flagged a couple replies from others over the years in my disqus profile because the info was great to have on hand. Now with a rare Fujiwara effect potentially in play, I think there could be some great responses in here I would want to save if I had questions. Anyone have any insider info on the format?

Dobby
Dobby
2 months ago
Reply to  Lena

I recall hearing mention that this is a first go at commenting, and that another commenting system could potentially come along as an upgrade in the future. Nothing firm.

The best way to get a better commenting system, would be to follow here regardless of the clunky system. Show Yale that, yes, these cat 6 people … are a people.

The people clinging to the old site, which dissed them, remind me of amoeba’s clinging to rocks in the beginning of a Richard Bach book, or something. 😀

Support the *person* who started it all … to start it again … here.

Last edited 2 months ago by Dobby
Lena
Lena
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

I’m 1000% on board with following the leader over to here. Good to know there’s potential for future changes to the system. Willingness to adapt is always a positive sign. I am surprised, though, that the Cat 6 subculture hasn’t created its own app yet. Every other group in the world has, especially in the name of defiance against powers that be. Funny, we just complained about what we had, then so many clung to it when this option came around. But an app specific to this type of discussion group would be awesome. Link in with Bob and with Levi as source points…. one click and you’re in. Profiles, connections, a social/intellectual media realm for us weather nuts.

Jexpat
Jexpat
2 months ago
Reply to  Dobby

Another way to look at it is as a trial run, to see how it goes.

And maybe observe and collect some data.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
2 months ago

Euro 06z recognizes TD13 and sends both systems into the GOM, although weak.
comment image

Last edited 2 months ago by BarbaraGermany
Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Hmm…now that is interesting!! Thanks for posting!!

Art
Art
2 months ago

comment image

gem_mslp_uv850_us_17[1].png
Tabludama
Tabludama
2 months ago
Reply to  Art

Not good for SW Fla coast if that verifies. Tampa Shield may break with this one.

Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago

Question..if 13L gets stronger which way would it be inclined to go…more West or East of a weaker storm?

luke haas
luke haas
2 months ago

It would neither go west or east it would remain on a strait path towards the Texas, Louisiana border

Michael Paul
Michael Paul
2 months ago

Well what a wonderful morning. Love being Coned.

Last edited 2 months ago by Michael Paul
Leanne
Leanne
2 months ago

Yeah, as if 2020 was finished throwing stuff at us. “Wait, hold my beer!” – August, 2020

Cameron Saint Augustine
Cameron Saint Augustine
2 months ago

Good morning everyone! Is there anyway to set settings so that most recent comments show up 1st? I’m on page 21 something now vs the 1st page which shows 20 hour old comments.

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
2 months ago

That orange lightning bolf at the upper right of the comment section.

Coastie1
Coastie1
2 months ago

Watching these two for a couple days now. It will be interesting over the next 48 hours or so to see how the intensity goes with 13 and that will influence track.

jiiski
jiiski
2 months ago

Bob Henson’s great tweet(s) in the middle of the night, in case you missed it:
A strong hurricane’s upper-level outflow can easily suppress a weaker one nearby. Plus, if they’re this close, the Fujiwhara effect could distort the tracks, as the storms try to spin around each other.

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1296693197880438784

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
2 months ago
Reply to  jiiski

Very interesting…..this will be almost unprecedented for the GOM and will want to be closely monitored…

Amature Met
2 months ago

Klotzbach said there is no record of two hurricanes existing in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, but there is precedent for two tropical cyclones – hurricane, storm or depression – to occupy the space together. The 1933 storms dubbed Treasure Coast and Cuba-Brownsville vied for Gulf of Mexico space.14 hours ago

Will there be two storms in the Gulf at the same time? It’s …http://www.nwfdailynews.com › story › news › 2020/08/20

carmot
carmot
2 months ago
Reply to  Amature Met

I think it specific what he said/tweeted: During the satellite era, there haven’t been… Please correct me if I’m wrong.

Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina
2 months ago

Did they pull the plug on cat 6?

ChanceShowerLA
ChanceShowerLA
2 months ago

Morning everyone! Did I miss something overnight with 13?!?

NHC.png
jiiski
jiiski
2 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

nope, just someone asleep at the wheel over there or a bug in the works

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
2 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Shows up on my end…have they gotten it fixed now?

carmot
carmot
2 months ago
Reply to  ChanceShowerLA

Wow, that would’ve been awesome if Laura really did fall down a manhole, open seafloor vent, or into a sink hole!

Quiet Storm
Quiet Storm
2 months ago

Cat6 done?

WxColorado
WxColorado
2 months ago
Reply to  Quiet Storm

seems so,

bonnie kuhns
2 months ago

good morning

Terry
Terry
2 months ago

Morning Folks! Happy Friday!

Jexpat
Jexpat
2 months ago

Welp, you knew it was coming… and so… in another of the shameless series of plugs for the American Meteorological Society’s policy of open access to excellent research and science fun… which we can all read, here’s:

“Continued Increases in the Intensity of Strong Tropical Cyclones”

https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/8/E1301/346683/Continued-Increases-in-the-Intensity-of-Strong

“Understanding Interdependent Climate Change Risks Using a Serious Game”

https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/8/E1279/345586/Understanding-Interdependent-Climate-Change-Risks

“Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean”

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8107/353233/Weakening-of-Cold-Halocline-Layer-Exposes-Sea-Ice

Much more here: https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/

Last edited 2 months ago by Jexpat
Terry
Terry
2 months ago
Reply to  Jexpat

thx for the post!

Ray
Ray
2 months ago

Glad to see Drs Masters and Henson still at it here. They provide the best in depth tropical weather analyses. And it looks like they are going to be very busy the next couple of months.

Kang8er
Kang8er
2 months ago

Dang, cat6 bit the dust huh?

Erik
Erik
2 months ago
Reply to  Kang8er

Is it completely gone? Where did everyone move to?

Cita Hernandez
Cita Hernandez
2 months ago
Reply to  Erik

If you find them please let me know.

Todd Roller
Todd Roller
2 months ago
Reply to  Cita Hernandez

The gangs all here come on in the waters fine!

https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/

Sara D. Moore
Sara D. Moore
2 months ago
Reply to  Kang8er

i thought it was just me??? I love the comments- where are they?