Satellite image of Isaias
Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 15:10Z (11:10 a.m. EDT) Saturday, August 1, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) plowed through the Bahama Island chain Friday and Saturday, making landfall over Andros Island in the northwest Bahamas late Saturday morning. Isaias is predicted to bring heavy rains and strong winds to the entire U.S. East Coast Saturday through Tuesday.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Isaias at 11:50 a.m. EDT Saturday, August 1, 2020, when the center of the storm was over Andros Island in the Bahamas. (Credit: bahamasweather.org via Brian McNoldy)

At 11 a.m. Saturday, August 1, Isaias was pounding the northwest Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 987 mb. An observing site at Blue Lagoon on New Providence Island recorded sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at 8:30 a.m. EDT Saturday. The capital of Nassau, on New Providence Island, reported sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 11 a.m. EDT Saturday. A personal weather station on Crooked Island received 4.24” of rain on Friday.

Bahamas radar showed that Isaias has struggled to build an eyewall from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, and has typically been able to maintain only about 50% of a complete eyewall, located along the north side of its center (see the excellent radar loop from Brian McNoldy). Unfortunately, Isaias is likely to pass very close on Saturday afternoon to one of the Bahama Islands hardest-hit by last year’s Hurricane Dorian, Grand Bahama Island.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Preliminary Rainfall Totals from Tropical Storm Isaias over the Dominican Republic on July 30, 2020. (Image credit: ONAMET)

Considerable damage in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico

In the Dominican Republic, floods from Isaias’s heavy rains killed two people, damaged or destroyed 167 homes, and caused the evacuation of 5,595 people, according to Dominican Today. Flooding knocked out 73 aqueducts, affecting the water supply for 1.4 million people. The peak 24-hour rainfall amount in the Dominican Republic was 11.00″ (279.4 mm) at Sabana De La Mar, on the north coast.

Isaias brought torrential rains and flooding to Puerto Rico, with preliminary flood damage to the municipality of Mayagüez, on the west coast of the island, estimated at $14 million, according to El Nuevo Dia. The storm knocked out power to more than 448,000 customers at its height on Thursday.

Figure 3
Figure 3. The 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, August 1, 2020, track forecast from the National Hurricane Center put the entire U.S. East Coast and most the southeast coast of Canada in the cone of uncertainty for Isaias. (Image credit: NOAA/NHC)

Entire U.S. East Coast to get impacts from Isaias

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have been hoisted for most of the east coast of Florida, and it is likely that nearly the entire U.S. East Coast will be under a watch or warning from Isaias at some time between Saturday and Tuesday. The region at highest risk is eastern North Carolina, which on Monday may lie on the strong (right-hand) side of a potential landfall by Isaias.

Isaias’s first spiral band to affect Florida moved over Miami on Saturday morning, and rainfall amounts of 2 – 4 inches are expected along the state’s east coast through Monday. In the Lake Okeechobee watershed, rains of about two inches are expected. This should not be a concern for the lake’s water level, which stood at 13.21′ on July 31 – about 0.5 feet below average for the date. The Army Corps of Engineers tries to maintain the water levels in the lake below a maximum of 15.5′ in order to relieve pressure on the aging Herbert Hoover Dike that surrounds the lake. Two inches of rain can raise the water levels in the lake a little less than a foot, so Isaias’s rains should keep the lake well below the 15.5′ level. The increased water levels in the lake resulting from Isaias’s rains will not lead to water releases, which have created toxic algae blooms along both the east and west coasts of Florida in the past. I discussed the issues bedeviling the dike in a 2017 post after Hurricane Irma’s rains of 8 – 12″ raised the lake level by 3.5′.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Five-day rainfall amounts ending at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 6, 2020. Isaias is expected to dump 2 – 4 inches of rain along a long swath of the U.S. East Coast. (Image credit: NOAA)

Forecast for Isaias

Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Predicted surface wind (colors) and pressure (black lines) at 0Z Tuesday (8 p.m. EDT Monday), from the 6Z Saturday, August 1, 2020 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Isaias would be making landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a category 1 hurricane with peak winds of 68 knots (78 mph, purple colors) and a central pressure of 991 mb. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

The models are very unified in bringing Isaias to a point very close to the coast in central Florida on Sunday afternoon, when Isaias is expected to turn more to the north and north-northeast as a result of the steering influence of the trough of low pressure to its west.

On Monday and Tuesday, Isaias may experience a reduction in shear, to 10 – 20 knots, as shown in the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model. With SSTs of 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F) – unusually warm for late July – extending northwards all along the coasts of South and North Carolina, Isaias could be strengthening because of the reduced shear and warm water as it approaches a possible landfall in the Carolinas on Monday afternoon or evening.

Once Isaias moves beyond the warm Gulf Stream waters to the north of North Carolina, steady weakening is likely, with most of the intensity models and the official NHC forecast predicting it by then will be a strong tropical storm with 55 – 70 mph winds during its closest approach to New England on Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Rainfall will be increasing on the west side of Isaias over time, and totals of 4″ – 6″ will be possible along the urban corridor from Washington to New York.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Visible MODIS satellite image of TD 10 north of the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday morning, August 1, 2020. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Short-lived Tropical Depression Ten forms off the coast of Africa

Tropical wave 93L developed into Tropical Depression Ten between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of Africa on Friday afternoon. The depression is unlikely to survive into Sunday, though, since on Saturday morning it moved over cool waters with SSTs of 25 degrees Celsius (77°F).

TD 10 had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon, as seen on satellite images. At 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, with top winds of 30 mph, TD 10 was headed northwestwards at 14 mph. This track will take it into a stable air mass and over even cooler waters, and TD 10 is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning.

Next system to watch for development

A westward-moving tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday morning was producing a bit of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible as it turns northwestward and passes well north of the Leeward Islands by Monday.

In an 8 a.m. EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system two-day and five-day odds of formation of 10% and 60%, respectively. Although the system has some model support for development, it does not appear to be a threat to any land areas.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Josephine. The current record for earliest 10th Atlantic named storm formation is August 22, 2005, when Jose formed.


7/31 Original Post

Hurricane Isaias satellite view
Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 1:43 p.m. EDT Friday, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) made landfall as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds on Thursday afternoon on the southeast coast of the Dominican Republic, bringing damaging flooding, as well as drought relief, to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Isaias is predicted to bring heavy rains and strong winds to the entire Bahama Island chain Friday and Saturday, and to the entire U.S. East Coast Saturday through Tuesday.

Flooding rescuers
Rescuers in Hato Mayor Province of the Dominican Republic help a resident navigate knee-high flood waters from Tropical Storm Isaias on July 31, 2020. (Image credit: Civil Defense of Dominican Republic)

At 11 a.m. Friday, July 31, Isaias was pounding the southeastern Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach in Providenciales reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) early Friday morning.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Preliminary rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Isaias. (Image credit: National Weather Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico)

Damaging flooding, drought relief for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic

Isaias brought torrential rains and flooding to Puerto Rico, with more than half of Puerto Rico receiving between five and 12 inches of rain (Figure 1). At the peak of the storm on Thursday, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, listed seven rivers on the island that were above flood stage, and 15 others near flood stage.

Preliminary flood damage to the municipality of Mayagüez, on the west coast of the island, was estimated at $14 million, said the manager of the Municipal Emergency Management Office, Israel Martínez Cuevas, in an interview with El Nuevo Dia. The storm knocked out power to more than 448,000 customers in Puerto Rico on Thursday, Fernando Padilla, an official with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, told Primera Hora. Main-trunk transmission lines that carry electricity from the south to the north of the island were down, as were local transmission lines.

In the Dominican Republic, floods from Isaias’s heavy rains knocked out power, flooded roads, and caused at least one death, according to Dominican Today. A Weather Underground personal weather station on the north shore of the Dominican Republic at Playa Bonita Beach reported 8 inches of rain on Thursday, July 30. At Hato Mayor del Rey in the east-central Dominican Republic, six feet of flooding occurred in some buildings, according to this tweet.

On the positive side, Isaias’s rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions that were affecting both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, as explained in our YCC post on Wednesday.

Figure 2
Figure 2. The 11 a.m. EDT Friday, July 31, 2020, track forecast from the National Hurricane Center put nearly the entire U.S. East Coast, from Miami, Florida to Eastport, Maine, in the cone of uncertainty for Isaias. (Image credit: NOAA/NHC)

Entire U.S. East Coast at risk from Isaias

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have been hoisted for the entire Bahama Islands chain and portions of the Florida coast, and it appears likely that nearly the entire U.S. East Coast will be under a watch or warning from Isaias at some time between Friday and Tuesday. The region at highest risk is eastern North Carolina, which on Monday may lie on the strong (right-hand) side of a potential landfall by Isaias.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 15:50Z (11:50 a.m. EDT) Friday, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Satellite images on Friday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms, which were building over the center of circulation after it had been partially exposed on Friday morning by an intrusion of dry air. Isaias had begun bumping into a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating less favorable conditions for intensification, with moderate to high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Bahamas radar showed that Isaias had built about 50% of a complete eyewall.

Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Saturday as the storm tracks to the northwest through the Bahamas and close to the east coast of Florida. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, but the official NHC forecast favors slow strengthening. A weaker Isaias will tend to track more to the west, potentially allowing a landfall in Florida, while a stronger storm will tend to feel the influence of the upper-level southwesterly winds on its west side, resulting in a more easterly track, keeping Isaias more to the east and preventing a Florida landfall. Unfortunately, Isaias is likely to pass close to the Bahama Islands hardest-hit by last year’s Hurricane Dorian, Grand Bahama Island and Great Abaco Island (Figure 4).

Figure 4
Figure 4. Predicted surface wind (colors) and pressure (black lines) at 18Z (2 p.m. EDT) Saturday, August 1, 2020, from the 6Z Friday, July 31, 2020 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Isaias would be hitting Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with peak winds of 78 knots (90 mph, purple colors) and a central pressure of 982 mb. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

On Sunday and Monday, when Isaias is expected to turn more to the north and north-northeast as a result of the steering influence of the trough of low pressure to its west, the storm may experience a reduction in shear, to 10 – 20 knots (the technical reasons for this were well-explained in a Thursday night video discussion by Levi Cowan). SSTs of 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F) – unusually warm for late July – extend northwards all along the coasts of South and North Carolina, so Isaias could be strengthening because of reduced shear and warm water as it approaches a possible landfall in the Carolinas on Monday.

Once Isaias moves beyond the warm Gulf Stream waters to the north of North Carolina, steady weakening is likely, with most of the intensity models and the official NHC forecast predicting it by then will be a strong tropical storm with 60 – 70 mph winds during its closest approach to New England on Tuesday.

Bahamas still recovering from 2019’s Hurricane Dorian

Isaias will be an unwelcome menace in the Bahama Islands, which are still recovering from the catastrophic impact of category 5 Hurricane Dorian of last year. After hitting St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands as a category 1 hurricane last August 28 and causing $150 million in damage to the Caribbean islands, Hurricane Dorian rapidly intensified into a category 5 mega-hurricane that powered ashore on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas on September 1, 2019, with sustained winds of 185 mph. Dorian tied for third-strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world history.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Hurricane Dorian on September 2, 2019, as seen from the International Space Station. At the time, Dorian was a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds over Grand Bahama Island. (Image Credit: Christina H. Koch/NASA)

At landfall, Dorian was moving at just 5 mph, and portions of Dorian’s eyewall lashed Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands with category 5 winds for a total of 22 hours before the great hurricane finally weakened to category 4 strength. Dorian’s extreme winds, storm surge of 20 – 25 feet, and rains of up to 3 feet (0.9 m) of rain combined to bring the Bahamas their most devastating natural disaster in history.

A November 15 report from the Inter-American Development Bank put damage in the Bahamas from Dorian at $3.4 billion – over 25% of their $12 billion GDP, and their most expensive disaster in history. Insurance broker Aon put Dorian’s damages at over $8 billion. Dorian killed 74 and left 282 people missing in the Bahamas, according to reliefweb.com. The authors of that report said that as of May 20, water, electricity, sanitation, and shelter continued to be challenges on Abaco Island. Medical care is also a problem, particularly with the COVID-19 pandemic occurring. The Bahamas began seeing a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases beginning in July, and had 508 total cases and 14 deaths as of July 30, according to worldometers.info.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Visible MODIS satellite image of 93L on Friday morning, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Invest 93L off the coast of Africa unlikely to develop

A tropical wave with a well-defined surface circulation between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of Africa, designated Invest 93L, was suffering from high wind shear on Friday, and had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, as shown on satellite images. The system was headed northwards into a stable air mass and over cooler waters, and it is likely to dissipate early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 20%.

A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning was producing a limited amount of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible as it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic by early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system two-day and five-day odds of formation of 0% and 20%, respectively. Although the system has some model support for development, there does not appear to be a threat to any land areas.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Josephine. The current record for earliest 10th Atlantic named storm formation is August 22, when Jose formed in 2005.

Thanks go to Bob Henson for assisting with this post.


Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting comments. View all EOTS posts here.

Topics: Weather Extremes
276 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Luisport
Luisport
13 days ago

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289653801016635394
@pppapin
·
16 min

This afternoon #Isaias has become a weaker & shallower vortex as its decoupled from deep convection via westerly shear importing dry air.

A more westward track over Andros Island has resulted, w/ landfall in #Florida looking more likely as a weaker tropical storm.

carmot
carmot
13 days ago

Guten morgen from Saipan!
Some beautiful cloud structures and towers this colorful morning.
comment image

Last edited 13 days ago by carmot
carmot
carmot
13 days ago
Reply to  carmot

Oh snap. Sorry. That dint work, somehow my sneaky flickr gave me code for my Comet Neowise image. Oops, now fixed!

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago
Reply to  carmot

That is beautiful.

Luisport
Luisport
13 days ago

Hello everyone! Here again!

starovermiami
starovermiami
13 days ago

test

Last edited 13 days ago by starovermiami
starovermiami
starovermiami
13 days ago
Reply to  starovermiami

I love Doc, but this is not user friendly at all!

Skyepony (mod)
Skyepony (mod)
13 days ago
Reply to  starovermiami

It’s not done and will improve.

Sunrisemama
Sunrisemama
13 days ago

Does anyone remember the name of the storm that went over Florida as a naked dry swirl? Debbie? I think this was between 2005 and 2012 if that narrows it down lol.

Jeanne
Jeanne
13 days ago

So, is it still a hurricane or not, Isaias

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 3:00 AM JST August 2 2020
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (T2003)
———————————-
Gulf of Tonkin

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sinlaku (994 hPa) located at 19.5N 107.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
600 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
300 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5-

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.4N 102.6E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

Tropical Storm Sinlaku (2003) has about 12 hours before making landfall over northern Vietnam.

Screenshot_2020-08-01 2003-00 png (PNG Image, 800 × 676 pixels).png
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7 – 3:00 AM JST August 2 2020
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (T2004)
—————————————————
Sea South of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagupit (1002 hPa) located at 21.8N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.4N 123.7E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) 50 km west of Ishigaki Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 28.2N 121.1E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land central China
72 HRS: 34.1N 120.2E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Over land northern China

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
12 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

So supposed to hit Japan and China?

vol_in_socal
vol_in_socal
13 days ago

Test

BRITTANY FARLEY
BRITTANY FARLEY
13 days ago
Reply to  vol_in_socal

I see this at 304

StormJunkie
13 days ago

So we naked swirl watching at the moment?

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
12 days ago
Reply to  StormJunkie

That mimic you posted makes it look like the naked LLC is over FL right now …

Romans 1:20
Romans 1:20
13 days ago

Test

Last edited 13 days ago by Romans 1:20
vol_in_socal
vol_in_socal
13 days ago
Reply to  Romans 1:20

Received

Stoopid1
Stoopid1
13 days ago

Popping in from beachside New Smyrna Beach, got everything all lined up and ready for Isaias. The system being more shallow would seem to favor a more western path so best to be prepared

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
12 days ago
Reply to  Stoopid1

All the action is loaded offshore due to the shear, tho … So impacts may be minimal.

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
13 days ago

2 pm update:
We’ve had several rounds of heavier rain since noon , along with some heavier winds. Still nowhere near hurricane force, however. It seems we’re far enough away from the storm centre to miss the heaviest bands. It looks like the SWly shear is really working Isaias over right now. It doesn’t help that much of the system is now over the Bahama Banks, where the TCHP is not as deep.

Looking forward to the wind and rain dying down tonight. I would like to have real internet access again, TYVM …. lol ….

I can’t get onto Disqus …. why am I not surprised – insert eyeroll here – so I’d appreciate it if someone here would pass information on to them.

I’ll check in again later.

beell
beell
13 days ago
Reply to  Bahahurican

SunriseMama got you covered. Info conveyed and collecting upvotes. One of them was mine!
🙂

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
12 days ago
Reply to  beell

Thanks, beell … Not sure if I could work with this crazy data situation in a ‘real’ hurricane … It was miserable yesterday just trying to get online.
I’m just glad it never got too bad here.

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago

2pm update

8-1-2020 1-45-32 PM.png
stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago
Reply to  stevezonecs

Meant to point out they are holding firm at 75 mph Hurricane status for the naked swirl off Andros Island.

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
13 days ago
Reply to  stevezonecs

The winds are likely there. We’re getting solid 40 mph winds here at our airport. It’s not unusual for a strong TS / weak hurricane to be this messy ….

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago

Latest center fix with 997 mb:

comment image

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

Today’s whole picture so far:

comment image

ClimateNHBSH
13 days ago

Also, it would be very nice if the upload size for images would be 5-10mb more.

Bahahurican
Bahahurican
13 days ago
Reply to  ClimateNHBSH

The smaller size means I can navigate this site, though, even with my limited resources. That’s actually an advantage. I can’t even get the Disqus page to load because there’s so much imagery of large size on there.

ClimateNHBSH
13 days ago
Reply to  Bahahurican

good point lol, it was just I couldn’t upload 2+ pictures per post(usually do that in Disqus/Discord). And I usually add up to 5 pics, such as for sunsets but oh well

Urca de Lima
Urca de Lima
13 days ago
Reply to  ClimateNHBSH

1 picture per post is more than enough as far as I’m concerned. I hope they leave this just the way it is. Disqus is terrible.

ClimateNHBSH
13 days ago

Hi! It’s been pretty warm the past few days, the heat index skyrocketed after Sunday’s heavy rain. my PWS got 14.5″ this month, with the highest rainfall day being 4.5″ 07/06/20. It got above 90 for 26-27 days, with the highest temp of 98f. Below is a pic of a tstm breaking a cap;

doublecapbreak.jpg
PeteCapeCod
PeteCapeCod
13 days ago

Glad to find everyone.

guygee
guygee
13 days ago

Sometimes in the past I’ve noticed when there is a bifurcation in
models, such as we’ve seen in some of the ensemble runs, or between
concurrent GFS and ECMWF runs, then in a sense both come true: the
tropical cyclone decouples. Isiais may be in the process of decoupling
now. At the least the low-level circulation is being uncovered on the
west side. We’ll see if that proceeds to completion.

guygee
guygee
13 days ago
Reply to  guygee

*Isaias

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago

At 18 hours but with his naked swirl right now, I just don’t know…

Last edited 13 days ago by stevezonecs
Bahahurican
Bahahurican
13 days ago

11 a.m. conditions at Nassau: rain is heavier than at 8 a.m. winds have been gusting to around 40 mph with occasional lulls. I notice that the eye is near Fresh Creek, Andros, so I’m assuming the worst wx for us will be during the next few hours.

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago
Reply to  Bahahurican

Thanks for the update! Hope everything will go smoothly.

Quite exposed low level center visible now and soon to emerge to the northwest of Andros Island:

comment image

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago
Reply to  BarbaraGermany

comment image

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
13 days ago

With all the regulars who moved over to this blog, it’s pretty quiet for a hurricane tracking near the SE coast….Isaias is presenting an interesting satellite presentation this morning…looks like it ingested some dry air and is having some problems with shear. The cloud tops have warmed dramatically, I can’t even make out any blacks on the IR right now! Not sure if it’s just a temporary thing, or if the computer models ended up being right wrt intensity. Still nothing to take lightly, I think with the pandemic going on, we’re all on edge anyway. Throw a natural disaster into the mix….yikes! Stay safe everyone!

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago

Over Andros Island:
comment image

Last edited 13 days ago by BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago

Sorry, messed up with that pic.

Last edited 13 days ago by BarbaraGermany
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago

Isaias will take it’s shape after the turn north. Center proximity to land should help it tighten up, also being over the Gulf Stream should feed energy and moisture to all quadrants. Very high dew points across Florida, 78 right now for Daytona. Don’t be surprised when Isaias shows up dressed right off Florida’s east coast.