Satellite image of Isaias
Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 15:10Z (11:10 a.m. EDT) Saturday, August 1, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) plowed through the Bahama Island chain Friday and Saturday, making landfall over Andros Island in the northwest Bahamas late Saturday morning. Isaias is predicted to bring heavy rains and strong winds to the entire U.S. East Coast Saturday through Tuesday.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Isaias at 11:50 a.m. EDT Saturday, August 1, 2020, when the center of the storm was over Andros Island in the Bahamas. (Credit: bahamasweather.org via Brian McNoldy)

At 11 a.m. Saturday, August 1, Isaias was pounding the northwest Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 987 mb. An observing site at Blue Lagoon on New Providence Island recorded sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at 8:30 a.m. EDT Saturday. The capital of Nassau, on New Providence Island, reported sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 11 a.m. EDT Saturday. A personal weather station on Crooked Island received 4.24” of rain on Friday.

Bahamas radar showed that Isaias has struggled to build an eyewall from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, and has typically been able to maintain only about 50% of a complete eyewall, located along the north side of its center (see the excellent radar loop from Brian McNoldy). Unfortunately, Isaias is likely to pass very close on Saturday afternoon to one of the Bahama Islands hardest-hit by last year’s Hurricane Dorian, Grand Bahama Island.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Preliminary Rainfall Totals from Tropical Storm Isaias over the Dominican Republic on July 30, 2020. (Image credit: ONAMET)

Considerable damage in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico

In the Dominican Republic, floods from Isaias’s heavy rains killed two people, damaged or destroyed 167 homes, and caused the evacuation of 5,595 people, according to Dominican Today. Flooding knocked out 73 aqueducts, affecting the water supply for 1.4 million people. The peak 24-hour rainfall amount in the Dominican Republic was 11.00″ (279.4 mm) at Sabana De La Mar, on the north coast.

Isaias brought torrential rains and flooding to Puerto Rico, with preliminary flood damage to the municipality of Mayagüez, on the west coast of the island, estimated at $14 million, according to El Nuevo Dia. The storm knocked out power to more than 448,000 customers at its height on Thursday.

Figure 3
Figure 3. The 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, August 1, 2020, track forecast from the National Hurricane Center put the entire U.S. East Coast and most the southeast coast of Canada in the cone of uncertainty for Isaias. (Image credit: NOAA/NHC)

Entire U.S. East Coast to get impacts from Isaias

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have been hoisted for most of the east coast of Florida, and it is likely that nearly the entire U.S. East Coast will be under a watch or warning from Isaias at some time between Saturday and Tuesday. The region at highest risk is eastern North Carolina, which on Monday may lie on the strong (right-hand) side of a potential landfall by Isaias.

Isaias’s first spiral band to affect Florida moved over Miami on Saturday morning, and rainfall amounts of 2 – 4 inches are expected along the state’s east coast through Monday. In the Lake Okeechobee watershed, rains of about two inches are expected. This should not be a concern for the lake’s water level, which stood at 13.21′ on July 31 – about 0.5 feet below average for the date. The Army Corps of Engineers tries to maintain the water levels in the lake below a maximum of 15.5′ in order to relieve pressure on the aging Herbert Hoover Dike that surrounds the lake. Two inches of rain can raise the water levels in the lake a little less than a foot, so Isaias’s rains should keep the lake well below the 15.5′ level. The increased water levels in the lake resulting from Isaias’s rains will not lead to water releases, which have created toxic algae blooms along both the east and west coasts of Florida in the past. I discussed the issues bedeviling the dike in a 2017 post after Hurricane Irma’s rains of 8 – 12″ raised the lake level by 3.5′.

Figure 4
Figure 4. Five-day rainfall amounts ending at 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 6, 2020. Isaias is expected to dump 2 – 4 inches of rain along a long swath of the U.S. East Coast. (Image credit: NOAA)

Forecast for Isaias

Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Predicted surface wind (colors) and pressure (black lines) at 0Z Tuesday (8 p.m. EDT Monday), from the 6Z Saturday, August 1, 2020 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Isaias would be making landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a category 1 hurricane with peak winds of 68 knots (78 mph, purple colors) and a central pressure of 991 mb. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

The models are very unified in bringing Isaias to a point very close to the coast in central Florida on Sunday afternoon, when Isaias is expected to turn more to the north and north-northeast as a result of the steering influence of the trough of low pressure to its west.

On Monday and Tuesday, Isaias may experience a reduction in shear, to 10 – 20 knots, as shown in the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model. With SSTs of 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F) – unusually warm for late July – extending northwards all along the coasts of South and North Carolina, Isaias could be strengthening because of the reduced shear and warm water as it approaches a possible landfall in the Carolinas on Monday afternoon or evening.

Once Isaias moves beyond the warm Gulf Stream waters to the north of North Carolina, steady weakening is likely, with most of the intensity models and the official NHC forecast predicting it by then will be a strong tropical storm with 55 – 70 mph winds during its closest approach to New England on Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Rainfall will be increasing on the west side of Isaias over time, and totals of 4″ – 6″ will be possible along the urban corridor from Washington to New York.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Visible MODIS satellite image of TD 10 north of the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday morning, August 1, 2020. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Short-lived Tropical Depression Ten forms off the coast of Africa

Tropical wave 93L developed into Tropical Depression Ten between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of Africa on Friday afternoon. The depression is unlikely to survive into Sunday, though, since on Saturday morning it moved over cool waters with SSTs of 25 degrees Celsius (77°F).

TD 10 had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon, as seen on satellite images. At 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, with top winds of 30 mph, TD 10 was headed northwestwards at 14 mph. This track will take it into a stable air mass and over even cooler waters, and TD 10 is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning.

Next system to watch for development

A westward-moving tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday morning was producing a bit of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible as it turns northwestward and passes well north of the Leeward Islands by Monday.

In an 8 a.m. EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system two-day and five-day odds of formation of 10% and 60%, respectively. Although the system has some model support for development, it does not appear to be a threat to any land areas.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Josephine. The current record for earliest 10th Atlantic named storm formation is August 22, 2005, when Jose formed.


7/31 Original Post

Hurricane Isaias satellite view
Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 1:43 p.m. EDT Friday, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) made landfall as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds on Thursday afternoon on the southeast coast of the Dominican Republic, bringing damaging flooding, as well as drought relief, to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Isaias is predicted to bring heavy rains and strong winds to the entire Bahama Island chain Friday and Saturday, and to the entire U.S. East Coast Saturday through Tuesday.

Flooding rescuers
Rescuers in Hato Mayor Province of the Dominican Republic help a resident navigate knee-high flood waters from Tropical Storm Isaias on July 31, 2020. (Image credit: Civil Defense of Dominican Republic)

At 11 a.m. Friday, July 31, Isaias was pounding the southeastern Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach in Providenciales reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) early Friday morning.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Preliminary rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Isaias. (Image credit: National Weather Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico)

Damaging flooding, drought relief for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic

Isaias brought torrential rains and flooding to Puerto Rico, with more than half of Puerto Rico receiving between five and 12 inches of rain (Figure 1). At the peak of the storm on Thursday, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, listed seven rivers on the island that were above flood stage, and 15 others near flood stage.

Preliminary flood damage to the municipality of Mayagüez, on the west coast of the island, was estimated at $14 million, said the manager of the Municipal Emergency Management Office, Israel Martínez Cuevas, in an interview with El Nuevo Dia. The storm knocked out power to more than 448,000 customers in Puerto Rico on Thursday, Fernando Padilla, an official with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, told Primera Hora. Main-trunk transmission lines that carry electricity from the south to the north of the island were down, as were local transmission lines.

In the Dominican Republic, floods from Isaias’s heavy rains knocked out power, flooded roads, and caused at least one death, according to Dominican Today. A Weather Underground personal weather station on the north shore of the Dominican Republic at Playa Bonita Beach reported 8 inches of rain on Thursday, July 30. At Hato Mayor del Rey in the east-central Dominican Republic, six feet of flooding occurred in some buildings, according to this tweet.

On the positive side, Isaias’s rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions that were affecting both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, as explained in our YCC post on Wednesday.

Figure 2
Figure 2. The 11 a.m. EDT Friday, July 31, 2020, track forecast from the National Hurricane Center put nearly the entire U.S. East Coast, from Miami, Florida to Eastport, Maine, in the cone of uncertainty for Isaias. (Image credit: NOAA/NHC)

Entire U.S. East Coast at risk from Isaias

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have been hoisted for the entire Bahama Islands chain and portions of the Florida coast, and it appears likely that nearly the entire U.S. East Coast will be under a watch or warning from Isaias at some time between Friday and Tuesday. The region at highest risk is eastern North Carolina, which on Monday may lie on the strong (right-hand) side of a potential landfall by Isaias.

Figure 3
Figure 3. Visible GOES-17 satellite image of Hurricane Isaias at 15:50Z (11:50 a.m. EDT) Friday, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB)

Satellite images on Friday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms, which were building over the center of circulation after it had been partially exposed on Friday morning by an intrusion of dry air. Isaias had begun bumping into a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating less favorable conditions for intensification, with moderate to high wind shear of 15 – 25 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Bahamas radar showed that Isaias had built about 50% of a complete eyewall.

Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Saturday as the storm tracks to the northwest through the Bahamas and close to the east coast of Florida. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, but the official NHC forecast favors slow strengthening. A weaker Isaias will tend to track more to the west, potentially allowing a landfall in Florida, while a stronger storm will tend to feel the influence of the upper-level southwesterly winds on its west side, resulting in a more easterly track, keeping Isaias more to the east and preventing a Florida landfall. Unfortunately, Isaias is likely to pass close to the Bahama Islands hardest-hit by last year’s Hurricane Dorian, Grand Bahama Island and Great Abaco Island (Figure 4).

Figure 4
Figure 4. Predicted surface wind (colors) and pressure (black lines) at 18Z (2 p.m. EDT) Saturday, August 1, 2020, from the 6Z Friday, July 31, 2020 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Isaias would be hitting Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas as a category 1 hurricane with peak winds of 78 knots (90 mph, purple colors) and a central pressure of 982 mb. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

On Sunday and Monday, when Isaias is expected to turn more to the north and north-northeast as a result of the steering influence of the trough of low pressure to its west, the storm may experience a reduction in shear, to 10 – 20 knots (the technical reasons for this were well-explained in a Thursday night video discussion by Levi Cowan). SSTs of 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F) – unusually warm for late July – extend northwards all along the coasts of South and North Carolina, so Isaias could be strengthening because of reduced shear and warm water as it approaches a possible landfall in the Carolinas on Monday.

Once Isaias moves beyond the warm Gulf Stream waters to the north of North Carolina, steady weakening is likely, with most of the intensity models and the official NHC forecast predicting it by then will be a strong tropical storm with 60 – 70 mph winds during its closest approach to New England on Tuesday.

Bahamas still recovering from 2019’s Hurricane Dorian

Isaias will be an unwelcome menace in the Bahama Islands, which are still recovering from the catastrophic impact of category 5 Hurricane Dorian of last year. After hitting St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands as a category 1 hurricane last August 28 and causing $150 million in damage to the Caribbean islands, Hurricane Dorian rapidly intensified into a category 5 mega-hurricane that powered ashore on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas on September 1, 2019, with sustained winds of 185 mph. Dorian tied for third-strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world history.

Figure 5
Figure 5. Hurricane Dorian on September 2, 2019, as seen from the International Space Station. At the time, Dorian was a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds over Grand Bahama Island. (Image Credit: Christina H. Koch/NASA)

At landfall, Dorian was moving at just 5 mph, and portions of Dorian’s eyewall lashed Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands with category 5 winds for a total of 22 hours before the great hurricane finally weakened to category 4 strength. Dorian’s extreme winds, storm surge of 20 – 25 feet, and rains of up to 3 feet (0.9 m) of rain combined to bring the Bahamas their most devastating natural disaster in history.

A November 15 report from the Inter-American Development Bank put damage in the Bahamas from Dorian at $3.4 billion – over 25% of their $12 billion GDP, and their most expensive disaster in history. Insurance broker Aon put Dorian’s damages at over $8 billion. Dorian killed 74 and left 282 people missing in the Bahamas, according to reliefweb.com. The authors of that report said that as of May 20, water, electricity, sanitation, and shelter continued to be challenges on Abaco Island. Medical care is also a problem, particularly with the COVID-19 pandemic occurring. The Bahamas began seeing a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases beginning in July, and had 508 total cases and 14 deaths as of July 30, according to worldometers.info.

Figure 6
Figure 6. Visible MODIS satellite image of 93L on Friday morning, July 31, 2020. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)

Invest 93L off the coast of Africa unlikely to develop

A tropical wave with a well-defined surface circulation between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of Africa, designated Invest 93L, was suffering from high wind shear on Friday, and had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, as shown on satellite images. The system was headed northwards into a stable air mass and over cooler waters, and it is likely to dissipate early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L two-day and five-day odds of formation of 20%.

A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning was producing a limited amount of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible as it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic by early next week. In an 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system two-day and five-day odds of formation of 0% and 20%, respectively. Although the system has some model support for development, there does not appear to be a threat to any land areas.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Josephine. The current record for earliest 10th Atlantic named storm formation is August 22, when Jose formed in 2005.

Thanks go to Bob Henson for assisting with this post.


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Topics: Weather Extremes
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Ryan Sperrey
Ryan Sperrey
13 days ago

Boy, pretty dead here today

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago
Reply to  Ryan Sperrey

Darn tootin’ it is.

Knock on Wood
Knock on Wood
13 days ago
Reply to  Ryan Sperrey

here, just holding on to my decade+ of lurking tradition just in this nice new place 😉

elioe
elioe
13 days ago
HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 – 21:00 PM JST August 1 2020
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (T2004)
———————————-
Sea South of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagupit (1002 hPa) located at 21.3N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 23.8N 124.3E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) 70 km south of Ishigaki Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
48 HRS: 27.3N 122.0E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 33.0N 120.5E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Over land Central China

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13 – 21:00 PM JST August 1 2020
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (T2003)
———————————-
Gulf of Tonkin

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sinlaku (994 hPa) located at 19.2N 108.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
600 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
300 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.9N 105.7E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Over land Vietnam
48 HRS: 20.0N 103.0E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago

A hurricane hugging the east coast of Florida is an incredible risk. To see it being handled very casually due to perceived weakness is not a good sign. A lot working against strengthening or even mainaining strength, yet the bath tub SST’S and Gulf Stream will get a say too. We’ll see soon enough.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
13 days ago

Isaias strengthened overnight under tough conditions. Though strengthening, the look is not ideal this morning. A lot underestimating an 85mph hurricane due to looks, we’ll see how this changes with the turn and riding the Gulf Stream. Isaias has never needed a healthy center to produce winds well above it’s looks. Many are not heeding this seriously, not buying a weakening on the turn, Isaias won’t be an ugly ducking all the way up the East Coast.

Ed Stock
Ed Stock
13 days ago

Not sure if this will post or if it will update automatically.

WUNIDS_map.gif
Ed Stock
Ed Stock
13 days ago
Reply to  Ed Stock

I guess click on it to put it in motion. It’s a gif.

stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago
Reply to  Ed Stock

Verified. It’s working

BarbaraGermany
BarbaraGermany
13 days ago

..

Last edited 13 days ago by BarbaraGermany
Stevettocs
Stevettocs
13 days ago

rain…………

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png
stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago

Good morning, YCC peeps

KTwo
KTwo
13 days ago

Hmm, looks like Isaias is doing alright this morning. Terrible that the Bahamas has to deal with this less than a year after their costliest storm on record.

carmot
carmot
13 days ago

I expect it’s not of much interest to most, but pretty cool that the nearly-full Moon, Jupiter, and Saturn form perfect spacing for a line right this minute in my evening sky! From the handy dandywebsite I use nearly every day: https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/night/

moon jupiter saturn 8-1-2020.gif
stevezonecs
stevezonecs
13 days ago
Reply to  carmot

That is cool

Michael Anderson
13 days ago

Can you imagine a dewpoint of 93.7°F at 8:45? Absolutely brutal conditions in the Middle East at the moment.

From oven to sauna in the United Arab Emirates:while Al Tawi at 11am is already reporting +47.8C,the island of Makassib is drenched with moisture,at 8:45am it was reporting a T of +35.8C and a humidity rate of 92% and a resulting dew point of +34.3C. @ScottDuncanWX

@mikarantane

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1289469173748264961?s=20

Stevettocs
Stevettocs
13 days ago

not suitable for humans.

O Smith
O Smith
13 days ago
Reply to  Stevettocs

Sounds like Florida. Haha.

Michael Anderson
13 days ago
Reply to  O Smith

Florida on steroids

Benjamin Shamel
Benjamin Shamel
13 days ago

OOF!

TPW
TPW
13 days ago

Grateful that the comments have survived.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 – 15:00 PM JST August 1 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
———————————-
Sea South of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.8N 127.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 23.0N 124.8E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 170 km southeast of Ishigaki Island (Okinawa Prefecture)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
13 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 – 15:00 PM JST August 1 2020
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (T2003)
———————————-
Gulf of Tonkin

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sinlaku (994 hPa) located at 18.5N 108.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
600 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
240 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0-

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.5N 106.3E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 19.8N 103.9E – Tropical Depression over land Laos

Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
13 days ago

The four types of climate denier, and why you should ignore them all – The shill, the grifter, the egomaniac and the ideological fool: each distorts the urgent global debate in their own way

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/climate-denier-shill-global-debate

Useful hint not to amplify disinformation.

About commenting here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/07/somebody-read-the-comments/

BUT, one of the unique things about this community has been gathering worldwide weather and meteorological information, often in a highly digestible visual format, in one place, with people bouncing off each other, sometimes chaotically. But I remember reports in the comments from big storms appearing the next day in all major media.

A very good way to use comments!

RealClimate was another place where comments amplified the main material, though unfortunately people with time on their hands can hijack any comment section (sometimes I’m guilty of this too).

Hmmm … I tried to drag an image in … OOPS, bad idea, sorry, fixed.

Last edited 13 days ago by Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
13 days ago
Reply to  Susan Anderson

OK, to waste people’s time in a more interesting way, this from 1837 (Racer’s Hurricane, broke up off Cape Hatteras) – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Home

_Hurricane_GoodShipHome_1837.jpg
Last edited 13 days ago by Susan Anderson
Joshua Ballanco
Joshua Ballanco
13 days ago

First outer rain band about to hit Miami:

Screen Shot 2020-08-01 at 00.52.04.png
Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF Anti-cyclone south is venting Isaias pushing shear northwest. Intensification and consolidation should continue. The blob effect is a cold pool essentially that continually feeds the main circulation. D-Max tonight we’ll see if they can merge.

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
14 days ago

i see the hypecasters are out in full force. Sheesh.

samwxstudent
samwxstudent
13 days ago

Some things never change.

MIAWeatherPilot
MIAWeatherPilot
13 days ago

At least that’s a tell sign that the blog is starting to look like it was 😂

Urca de Lima
Urca de Lima
13 days ago

By September we’ll be begging for an “ignore list”. Not too bad, yet.

Nora
Nora
13 days ago
Reply to  Urca de Lima

I was looking for that option yesterday.

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 – 9:00 AM JST August 1 2020
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
———————————-
Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.8N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.0N 125.4E – 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 290 km southeast of Ishigaki island (Okinawa Prefecture)

HadesGodWyvern
HadesGodWyvern
14 days ago
Reply to  HadesGodWyvern

TD 92W (“DINDO”) track map from Japan Meteorological Agency

Screenshot_2020-08-01 気象庁 台風情報.png
Romans 1:20
Romans 1:20
14 days ago

Levin Cowan latest video he thinks 30 mph shear will weaken the storm until landfall.

Urca de Lima
Urca de Lima
13 days ago
Reply to  Romans 1:20

I just saw that. Levi’s main Tropical Tidbits page is still featuring yesterday’s video. His Youtube channel, though, has his latest from about 2 hours ago at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmLUULS9ja8

Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
14 days ago

Beautiful and fascinating.

Wyatt Washburn
Wyatt Washburn
14 days ago

Isaias had a southern blob to feed yesterday that died last night. The energy didn’t disappear, new blob feeding just fine.

Dirk
Dirk
14 days ago
Reply to  Wyatt Washburn

@ Susan Anderson: Yep it´s still not perfect ;), however they are working hard on that i´am sure. Sorry i replied on the the wrong post 🙁

Last edited 14 days ago by Dirk
Susan Anderson
Susan Anderson
14 days ago

Inequity at the boiling point: A Quarter of Bangladesh Is Flooded. Millions Have Lost Everything.
The country’s latest calamity illustrates a striking inequity of our time: The people least responsible for climate change are among those most hurt by its consequences.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/climate/bangladesh-floods.html

I miss the tracking facility of Disqus. Once this gets below the fold it will be gone.

Last edited 14 days ago by Susan Anderson